2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

Offering Ortiz arbitration still would seem to box the Sox in as far as offensive moves this offseason. The Sox would be incredibly lucky to come out of arbitration any better than $14-$15M for Ortiz. It is almost like they are throwing up their hands and deciding not to try to replace Ortiz bat even with something like the $14-$15M they are going to end up paying him. Smacks of another player decision with a good deal of marketing content. While finding a right hand bat for $8-$9M sounded like a challenge, there is nobody they can get for $14-$15M? No doubting that Ortiz is a popular player in Boston and a guy that puts fannies in seats. They will remain heavily weighted to the left side with no other power hitter from the right than oft injured Youk and their second baseman all be it the heaviest hitting second baseman in baseball.

 

Probably means expect Kalish to be manning right field.

Ortiz would be a fool not to accept arbitration, if they think he can get $15million for 2012. He will not do any better than 2/$20 million from anyone. Unless he suffers a career threatening injury or his performance falls off a cliff, he'll do much better than a 1 year deal in 2013 than $5 million.

[jung]

Agreed 700. In effect, we can plan on Ortiz being in Boston for 2012. That moves them in a particular direction as far as the rest of the offense is concerned as well. They will not pay Ortiz $15M to sit at all so the only games he will not play are the inter-league games. Those are going to be as challenging in 2012 as they were in 2011.

 

I don't know what that means for Youk and AGons. There is no question that they need more rest than they got in 2011.

[iortiz]

Ortiz would be a fool not to accept arbitration' date=' [b']if they think he can get $15million for 2012[/b]. He will not do any better than 2/$20 million from anyone. Unless he suffers a career threatening injury or his performance falls off a cliff, he'll do much better than a 1 year deal in 2013 than $5 million.

 

if true, they should better offer him 20M/2Y, right?

 

But again, if they spend those tons of money on him 10-15 M how much is left for our pitching holes?, unless they are considering go over the cap.

[a700hitter]

if true, they should better offer him 20M/2Y, right?

 

But again, if they spend those tons of money on him 10-15 M how much is left for our pitching holes?, unless they are considering go over the cap.

2/20 would have been a good deal as opposed to $14-15 million for 2011.

[Palodios]

Ortiz would be a fool not to accept arbitration' date=' if they think he can get $15million for 2012. He will not do any better than 2/$20 million from anyone. Unless he suffers a career threatening injury or his performance falls off a cliff, he'll do much better than a 1 year deal in 2013 than $5 million.[/quote']

 

Ortiz is in good standing with this team. There very well may be a gentleman's agreement on this-- which I know is rare for Type A FA status, but considering how vocal Ortiz was about a long term contract, it would not surprise me.

 

Until his contract is settled, no sense arguing whether it was a good or bad move because we don't have inside information.

[example1]

Bedard got Jones' date=' Tillman and others. A-Gon cost your no 1 and 2 prospects and your no 5.[/b'] A-Gon is a lot better but Gio has a lot more team control years and is a lefty pitcher. Your #3 and #7 to 11 propsects and a major league ready of seems fair.

 

It was a really dumb trade on Seattle's part, not a model to be followed. I take our point, but my point is that your price is too high. Xander is arguibly the orgs best prospect, Kalish is a possible all-star OF (he has Ellsbury's upside), and one of those other guys (Coyle, Cecchini, etc.,) are all very young talented pieces who could develop into a lot.

 

I need something more certain than Gio if I'm giving up that much.

[User Name]

I personally don't understand the fascination with Gio Gonzales.

[a700hitter]

That deal would suck for the Sox. Xander, Kalish and one of those other three would represent an overpay IMO. At least for Gio, who I just don't think warrants so much admiration.

 

Stuff-wise he reminds me of Bedard a few years ago, but I don't know how he would adjust from Oakland to Boston.

I thought you were a proponent of getting Gio Gonzalez.

[example1]

I thought you were a proponent of getting Gio Gonzalez.

 

I'm not a strong proponent of him, no. I'm worried about certain aspects of his performance and don't have a ton of faith that he could come to Boston and be dominant. If the price were right, of course he would be worth getting because the Sox could use a 200+ high K pitcher who is cost controlled. I'm just not liking the comparisons re: trade that I'm hearing for him.

 

I think the Sox system is thin enough that it is worth holding onto guys like Middlebrooks, Lavarnway and Kalish, Bogaerts, and a few others.

[a700hitter]

I'm not a strong proponent of him, no. I'm worried about certain aspects of his performance and don't have a ton of faith that he could come to Boston and be dominant. If the price were right, of course he would be worth getting because the Sox could use a 200+ high K pitcher who is cost controlled. I'm just not liking the comparisons re: trade that I'm hearing for him.

 

I think the Sox system is thin enough that it is worth holding onto guys like Middlebrooks, Lavarnway and Kalish, Bogaerts, and a few others.

I must be mistaken, because I thought you had suggested that the Sox look at acquiring Gio.

[example1]

I must be mistaken' date=' because I thought you had suggested that the Sox look at acquiring Gio.[/quote']

 

I may have suggested it. I just wouldn't do it for the price that has been noted here, or in media reports. I don't t hink he's a #1 but he's being sold like he is. No interest in giving up the farm for Gio. I would rather they pay less for a guy like Anibel Sanchez.

 

There's a few pieces I would give up for him, but the Sox have a number of untouchables in my book and the asking price for Gio appears to be high.

[a700hitter]

I may have suggested it. I just wouldn't do it for the price that has been noted here, or in media reports. I don't t hink he's a #1 but he's being sold like he is. No interest in giving up the farm for Gio.

 

There's a few pieces I would give up for him, but the Sox have a number of untouchables in my book and the asking price for Gio appears to be high.

What kind of package do you think it would take for the A's to part with Gio, and what would you be willing to give up to get him?

[example1]

What kind of package do you think it would take for the A's to part with Gio' date=' and what would you be willing to give up to get him?[/quote']

 

I have no idea what they would want for him. Not entirely sure why they would part with him except for some significant parts coming back.

 

The best answer I can give is that I would be extremely hesitant to give up Kalish, Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, or Bogaerts in any deal except for a bonafide ace. Other guys can be included with one of those guys for the right pitcher, but not Gio.

[a700hitter]

The best answer I can give is that I would be extremely hesitant to give up Kalish' date=' Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, or Bogaerts in any deal except for a bonafide ace. Other guys can be included with one of those guys for the right pitcher, but not Gio.[/quote']So, you suggested getting Gio, but you don't want to give up any prospects to get him. How did you expect to get him?

[iortiz]

I would give up Reddick since we already have Kalish and maybe a couple of mid-class prospects, but I'm not sure what the A's need.

 

What is interesting in this kid is that he can give you 200 IP +, he already had a couple of great seasons 3.1/3.2 ERA (likely is not a fluke anymore), he would be cost controlled, he put a 4.2/5.0 WAR the last two years, he is young and seems not to be prone to injuries.

 

If I were in A's shoes I would ask for him, what I would ask for Kalish or maybe more, but it is just me.

[User Name]

BB/9 over 4 in both seasons, BABIP under league average, one full ERA point higher away from home (and he plays in a division of pitcher's parks except Texas). Smells like possible fluke and candidate for regression at Fenway to me.

[jung]

If you were going to insist on signing him out of the FA market 2/20 for Ortiz would surely have been preferable to 1/15 or 1/14. Still at 2/20, Ortiz would think he had died and gone to heaven. I do not get committing the amount of money to Ortiz that they will be forced to commit by going the arbitration route and I would have thought 2/20 was overpaying for him as well, just not as onerous as 1/15.

[SoxSport]

If you were going to insist on signing him out of the FA market 2/20 for Ortiz would surely have been preferable to 1/15 or 1/14. Still at 2/20' date=' Ortiz would think he had died and gone to heaven. I do not get committing the amount of money to Ortiz that they will be forced to commit by going the arbitration route and I would have thought 2/20 was overpaying for him as well, just not as onerous as 1/15.[/quote']

 

Seems like spending more than $10 mil on Papi for even one year is excessive given the other needs of this team. He's a gamble to repeat his numbers last year. They paid him $25 mil for two bad seasons the previous years, and that's enough good will. I hope he gets an offer from the Orioles giving the Sox an out. Money better spent on pitching.

[a700hitter]

Seems like spending more than $10 mil on Papi for even one year is excessive given the other needs of this team. He's a gamble to repeat his numbers last year. They paid him $25 mil for two bad seasons the previous years' date=' and that's enough good will. I hope he gets an offer from the Orioles giving the Sox an out. Money better spent on pitching.[/quote']Boston at $14 million for 2012 is the perfect situation for him. The ballpark suits him. He has the protection of AGon and Youk so he'll see his share of strikes. Barring injury, he'll put up numbers again, he'll get a nice payday in 2013 too.

[jacksonianmarch]

It just doesnt make any sense. He could possibly be had for 2yrs, $20 million. That's likely in this market. So they offer him arb where he could almost assuredly gain 75% of the total value of that contract in year 1? That makes no sense. They want the picks if he leaves, obviously, but that's a huge payday for a 36 yr old DH. And next yr, if they want compensation, they'd need to offer him a 1yr $12.5 million payday just to be eligible for picks. The guy will still hit. He may not put up another .900+OPS season, but he's almost assuredly a lock for 25HR, 80RBI and an .850+OPS. He'll still have his type A status going into 2013. Seems like they are willing to pay more money to keep him motivated

[jacksonianmarch]

BB/9 over 4 in both seasons' date=' BABIP under league average, one full ERA point higher away from home (and he plays in a division of pitcher's parks except Texas). Smells like possible fluke and candidate for regression at Fenway to me.[/quote']

 

I dont think he's a fluke. He's got elite stuff, but marginal command of that stuff. He's proven he's durable and capable of improving his peripherals (mostly the K rate). I just dont think he'd be the right fit in Fenway with that monster there. In Yankee Stadium he could be a boon, but he isnt a sub 3ERA pitcher outside of Oakland, but they'll want to be compensated as if he is

[User Name]

I dont think he's a fluke. He's got elite stuff' date=' but marginal command of that stuff. He's proven he's durable and capable of improving his peripherals (mostly the K rate). [/b']I just dont think he'd be the right fit in Fenway with that monster there. In Yankee Stadium he could be a boon, but he isnt a sub 3ERA pitcher outside of Oakland, but they'll want to be compensated as if he is

 

That sounds a lot like AJ Burnett. Think about that for a second.

[redsoxrules]

Ortiz apparantly seeking a 3 year deal

 

Free agent designated hitter David Ortiz seeks a three-year deal, reports Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. An industry source tells Silverman Ortiz is drawing "serious interest" from more than one team and has an offer in hand. He and the Red Sox maintain mutual interest about a new deal, and Ortiz intends to allow them to match any offer.

 

One wrinkle for Ortiz is that signing him comes with the tax of the loss of a draft pick, assuming he turns down Boston's arbitration offer. If Ortiz is serious about getting multiple years, he'll have to turn down that arbitration offer on December 7th. The Blue Jays, a somewhat reasonable match for Big Papi, probably aren't keen on giving the Red Sox their #17 pick in next year's draft. Last week, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports wrote that the arbitration offer is one reason the Red Sox are "more likely than not" to retain Ortiz

[RonVermette]

A 2 year 20 mil deal with a club option for a third seems the likeliest outcome since they've already committed to a one year 13-15 arbitration. The sooner they do this the better - to totally focus on pitching.

[jung]

If not for the change in the luxury tax rates I am not sure the Sox could consider Ortiz under any circumstances. 3 years would be a total joke unless the per year were so low to account for the third year.

[iortiz]

Cubs Open For Business On Matt Garza

By Tim Dierkes [November 28 at 1:54pm CST]

 

Teams have a clear belief that the Cubs are open for business on starter Matt Garza, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. *Some teams expect Garza to be dealt this winter. *Earlier this month, USA Today's Bob Nightengale wrote that the Cubs are willing to listen on everyone.

 

Garza, 28, moved to the National League this year and posted career-bests with a 3.32 ERA and 197 strikeouts. *He's under team control for 2012 and '13, and MLBTR projects a salary around $8.7MM for '12.

 

The Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, three of teams that had no access to acquiring Garza when he pitched for the Rays in the AL East, figure to inquire with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer this winter. *The Rangers, Rockies, Marlins, Angels, Nationals, Reds, and Dodgers could be other interested parties, and the Twins certainly know Garza well having drafted him in '05. *

 

What will it take to acquire Garza? *The Cubs' farm system is light on top-shelf young pitching, based on rankings from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. *With Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Martin Perez, the Yankees and Rangers' top arms could be of particular interest to the Cubs.

[iortiz]

What would you give for Garza?

 

He could be a solid 3-4 SP in our rotation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Garza could be your #2 and he could be ours. He's the kind of arm I'd be willing to move Betances for. Banuelos, though, is untouchable aside from the top tier aces, IMO

[jacksonianmarch]

That sounds a lot like AJ Burnett. Think about that for a second.

 

I am not advocating getting him, I just dont think you can say he's a fluke. I agree, but the thing is, for every AJ Burnett there is a guy like CJ Wilson who can harness his stuff enough to be very effective.

[SoxSport]

What would you give for Garza?

 

He could be a solid 3-4 SP in our rotation.

 

Theo Epstein. I understand he can pitch, too.

They can also throw in a prospect.

 

I wish Cherington would get back to his GM job, instead of trying to handpick the next manager.

Cmon Ben. Get to work on Theo's compensation, trades and free agents. Like your buddy Hoyer in Chicago. You haven't done a thing yet.