2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

BTW does anybody know D-K's status? Can he pitch in 2012?

Not before July.

[iortiz]

Not before July.

 

I see.

 

BTW what is your opinion about this... Supposing that JH won't overpass the luxury tax cap.

 

Would you trade Ells? or how should we cover the #4 SP?

[Palodios]

Hudson and Hanson are untouchable. Jurjjens is an oft-injured, fly ball pitcher who would get killed at Fenway. Beachy and Minor are unproven.

 

If it was up to me, i'd ask for Teheran +. He's also unproven, but that kid has an explosive arm.

 

Hanson was one of the players I suggested a while back. High Ceiling, buy low opportunity, 3 arb years left. The Braves would need to add a big key piece to make it work, and I'd doubt they would.

[seabeachfred]

I feel like I've had to talk the "realists" off the end of the cliff for the past month, despite the many, many things this team has going for it.

 

The only thing real in your assessment is the amount of pain and suffering you have obviously been through. I'm truly sorry for you that the loss of a team with 180m payroll was such a huge loss for you. I felt the pain too, but perhaps I'm just missing how watching replays of 2004 every night puts you in some "real" camp with those of us who are able to see the forest for the trees.

 

Among the best teams in baseball. Owned the Yankees. Had underperformances and injuries but still managed to get a boatload of wins despite an epic collapse.

 

Does the collapse make me happy? No. Am I so stupid as to think that the flaws displayed during the initial 12 game shithole and the September collapse are accurate reflections of the actual talent on this club? No.

 

Call yourself 'realist' all you want. It's pessimist or catastrophizer to me. That doesn't involve any sugar coating, merely perspective.

 

I don't consider myself a bigger or better Red Sox fan that you or anyone else; I just take their defeats a lot harder. Keep in mind that I have not followed the Red Sox as long as you and some of my other colleagues on this board. I came on in August of 2000, a semi- johnny come lately if you will. As you might know though, converts to any cause have a strong tendency to act a little more rabid and teeter near the cliff. I am a true believer who welcomed the opportunity to finally find a team to love again after my then beloved Brooklyn Dodgers left Brooklyn after the '57 season. I went 43 years going from this team to that team and not feeling much of anything for any of them until I found the Red Sox. If I stand convicted of anything it is how long it took until I realized the Red Sox were the team for me. Truth be told I often kick myself for wasting all those years wandering in the wilderness, but, yes, I'm extreme and we old war horses have a tendency to be just that.

[seabeachfred]

User is correct in both posts.

 

I do not believe they will overspend the cap in 2012 because the needs they can realistically deal with this year are fairly specific and not that burdensome from a cost perspective. They would stand a very good chance of going over if they actually made an offer to CJ or Buerhle that brought one of them here but I just don't expect that.

 

They don't have much in the way of cap room but I would hope they can fit a back of the rotation starter with bullpen help and a RF RH bat although I wish I really knew at this point if they are going to gamble on Kalish in RF. Geez though, 3 LH bats in the outfield. If they go with Kalish then that probably means every dime they have will go to pitching. I could understand that. They are I am sure smart enough not to overrun it by just a little bit as that could be a real blunder without knowing what the 2013 cap number will be. You don't want to cost yourself a year over the cap for a couple million $ because if you then go over in the next year you get hit for 30% in that second consecutive year.

 

I do think there is a chance that they might bust it in 2013 although we don't know what the 2013 number is yet. I would guess it will be something like $205M. With the amount of pitching talent coming up in the next FA market and the cost of top notch SP being what it is, I would think there is a chance they would bust it in 2013. That could work out if they don't go over this year and could wiggle back under again in 2014.

 

Jung, don't you think that for a team that plays half its games at Fenway Park our overload of left hand hitters in our lineup is a little over the top? There are a lof of good pitchers in the AL East and the American League in general and it would seem to be to have this kind of lineup is putting us at a distinct disadvantage. We need at least one more RH hitter in our lineup next year and if I had my druthers we'd have two. I hope the FO is thinking along these lines.

[User Name]

Hanson was one of the players I suggested a while back. High Ceiling' date=' buy low opportunity, 3 arb years left. The Braves would need to add a big key piece to make it work, and I'd doubt they would.[/quote']

 

How about a "ready for 2012" bullpen arm like JJ Hoover?

[seabeachfred]

Should i castigate here Fred?

 

Don't understand the question Boomer but I'll let your decide.

[iortiz]

How about a "ready for 2012" bullpen arm like JJ Hoover?

 

Ells for Hanson + Hoover?

 

I like it.

[seabeachfred]

So you expect another September collapse of historic proporations? No, of course not. That was completely without precedent and will not be repeated. Reason would dictate that the 2011 team, left unaltered, would make the playoffs. Let's stop being silly here Fred. Seriously.

 

The results from 2011 were not a reflection of the actual quality of the team. Going simply by whether they made the playoffs or not is a really poor way of evaluating talent. It is worse than looking at team batting average or some other archane statistic. It is looking at results that will not be replicated.

 

 

 

 

I don't think the team is making decisions based on whether some small portion of "realist" fans will or will not jump off a cliff based on their decisions about spending more. It is so freaking selfish to say that Henry, who spent hundreds of millions on new players just LAST YEAR has lost interest in winning. Another example of catastrophizing at its best.

 

 

 

Do you really question whether the Red Sox have a "serious will to win" in their FO? A team that spends millions on draft picks and expensive international FAs, while making the biggest splash in the 2010-2011 offseason, you're REALLY going to ask that.

 

Just read what you are writing man, and ask if it REALLY reflects the "realist" perspective that you so strongly believe you have.

 

Tell you what Ex, let's wait until all the work is done this off season before I answer that question. Your point is that we have a lot of talent; no argument there. My question is does the team have the proper chemistry to function as a champion contender. The collapse in September came because of a number of reasons but I saw no leadership from anyone trying to staunch the bleeding. Will such a debacle happen again? No, it shouldn't, but unlike you I think the team has to unload some of the players who have outlived their usefulness and bring in some fresh blood in the form of a solid No. 3 or 4 starting pitcher, two relievers who won't start fires but put them out, and, damn it, a RH hitting outfielder with some sock. I've repeated that over and over. As an aside, do you really think Henry is going to open up his billfold this winter? That I doubt.

[jung]

BTW what is your opinion about this... Supposing that JH won't overpass the luxury tax cap.

 

Would you trade Ells? or how should we cover the #4 SP?

 

Hopefully can answer two posts in one.

 

Don't hold me to it because I have lately only been looking at this from the perspective of keeping Ells but I think that if you trade Ells and do not sign Ortiz with the combination of Ells 2012 Arb money plus Ortiz money plus the rest, you might be able to get a pretty decent (not $20M per year) SP, a RH bat to play RF (provided that you also cover rotating the DH position) plus shoring up the pitching depth without busting the 2012 threshold because now you are pulling Ells 2012 arb money out as well. You have taken two big bats out of the lineup but they are both LH bats and I think that really means that the RH, RF you bring in has to be good enough to soften that blow.

 

Again we have been saying all along that we have some overage in offense so you can give up some of that especially to improve your pitching. Also, in opening up the discussion to trading Ells, you no longer restrict yourself to the few FA starters coming on the market this year. It might take a three way deal to do it to get the right combination of players on the table and it seems complicated regardless of how many teams are involved but Ells 2012 arb money is likely does make room as long as you still let Ortiz go.

 

I gotta' look at more but I think what I have posted above is correct.

[seabeachfred]

After reading carefuly jung's posts, I have only one thing to say, Goddammit Theo Epstain, we are damn clogged in our 2012 books. I'm starting to think that we won't overpass the 2012 threshold.

 

This 2012 gonna be tough. I hate to say it, but I simply do not see how we can set up WS contender team next year if we do not overspent the luxury cap.

 

Since Wilson and Buehrle sound more like a dream or a good wish, I don't expect a solid 2012 rotation. Our hopes will rest on Becket, Lester and Buch and hope that they perform solid and do not get an injury or s*** the bed... And whoever the 4th and 5th SPs are, I see a huge risk if we don't bring at least a guy named Buehrle or Wilson, but again, it sounds more like a good wish after reading Jung's posts. Plus who knows how Youk, Crawford and Salty will perform... Call me pessimist, but I see a lot red flags.

 

BTW We also need at least a RF, Closer, DH, BP arms, pitching depth. Complicated.

 

Cherington, you better be creative, dude.

 

iortiz, I guess pessimism is supposed to be out this off season so let's just call ourselves doubting thomases. I've said similar things only to be told by Example and User that I'm too close to the cliff. I do give kuddos those posters who have kept the optimistic fires going in light of our historic and miserable collapse, but there are many of us who were traumatized by the way the team just went into the tank in September. You can point all kinds of fingers in all sorts of directions but if anything at all, it showed that we were a flawed team. I said earlier that Cherington has got to be creative this winter because we simply cannot take the same team into battle in 2012. To me the pieces didn't fit and the team chemistry seemed non existent by the end of the season.

[User Name]

Ells for Hanson + Hoover?

 

I like it.

 

What happens in that instance is that you fixed both your SP problem and part of your bullpen issue extremely cheap (Around $3 million) . That gives you at least seven extra million to play with, which would facilitate the Beltran signing.

[iortiz]

Hopefully can answer two posts in one.

 

Don't hold me to it because I have lately only been looking at this from the perspective of keeping Ells but I think that if you trade Ells and do not sign Ortiz with the combination of Ells 2012 Arb money plus Ortiz money plus the rest, you might be able to get a pretty decent (not $20M per year) SP, a RH bat to play RF (provided that you also cover rotating the DH position) plus shoring up the pitching depth without busting the 2012 threshold because now you are pulling Ells 2012 arb money out as well. You have taken two big bats out of the lineup but they are both LH bats and I think that really means that the RH, RF you bring in has to be good enough to soften that blow.

 

Again we have been saying all along that we have some overage in offense so you can give up some of that especially to improve your pitching. Also, in opening up the discussion to trading Ells, you no longer restrict yourself to the few FA starters coming on the market this year. It might take a three way deal to do it to get the right combination of players on the table and it seems complicated regardless of how many teams are involved but Ells 2012 arb money is likely does make room as long as you still let Ortiz go.

 

I gotta' look at more but I think what I have posted above is correct.

 

reason why you like Floyd and Quentin, right?

[User Name]

So in retrospect:

 

Trading Ellsbury for:

 

Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin

 

Or

 

Tommy Hanson and an MLB-ready bullpen ready arm are both attractive options.

[seabeachfred]

Our Ells is kind of untouchable as well, isn't he?

 

untouchable for untouchable, how does it sound?, to me?, fair!

 

EDIT: In the end, they need bats and we need pitching...

 

iortiz, you don't trade a player like Ellsbury for some third rate pitcher; in fact, I would be reluctant to trade him at all. But...if we do we need a Hanson for him or part of a trade for King Felix, not a No. 3 or some hot flashing rookie. As you said untouchable for untouchable.

[iortiz]

What happens in that instance is that you fixed both your SP problem and part of your bullpen issue extremely cheap (Around $3 million) . That gives you at least seven extra million to play with' date=' which would facilitate the Beltran signing.[/quote']

 

I definitely like a lot more this scenario (Hanson + Hoover + Beltran) than Ells "+" for Quentin + Floyd.

 

Hope that Cherington is at least considering this.

[iortiz]

iortiz' date=' you don't trade a player like Ellsbury for some third rate pitcher; in fact, I would be reluctant to trade him at all. But...if we do we need a Hanson for him or part of a trade for King Felix, not a No. 3 or some hot flashing rookie. As you said untouchable for untouchable.[/quote']

 

Well, I wasn't who said that Hudson was untouchable, User was. hehehe.

 

But again, I was just putting some random names. Rethinking, My call would be for Hanson, Cain, Felix, etc. (someone of their calibre) for Ells.

 

Agree?

[User Name]

Well, I wasn't who said that Hudson was untouchable, User was. hehehe.

 

But again, I was just putting some names. Rethinking, My call would be for Hanson, Cain, Felix, etc. (someone of their calibre) for Ells.

 

Agree?

 

That's because Hanson is not "some rookie". He's a highly regarded pitcher with an excellent repertoire. He's probably a better pitcher than Tim Hudson right now.

[seabeachfred]

Well, I wasn't who said that Hudson was untouchable, User was. hehehe.

 

But again, I was just putting some random names. Rethinking, My call would be for Hanson, Cain, Felix, etc. (someone of their calibre) for Ells.

 

Agree?

 

Totally!!!!!

[iortiz]

That's because Hanson is not "some rookie". He's a highly regarded pitcher with an excellent repertoire. He's probably a better pitcher than Tim Hudson right now.

 

As I said i would do a trade like that, Hanson/Cain/Felix for Ells. Not Less.

 

I liked you proposal (Hanson +Hoover + Beltran), I'd do it in a heartbeat.

[User Name]

As I said i would do a trade like that, Hanson/Cain/Felix for Ells. Not Less.

 

I liked you proposal (Hanson +Hoover + Beltran), I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

So what would you do about the Closer situation, rest of the bullpen and insurance starters if that were to be the scenario?

[iortiz]

So what would you do about the Closer situation' date=' rest of the bullpen and insurance starters if that were to be the scenario?[/quote']

 

How much money you said is left after this?

[User Name]

How much money you said is left after this?

 

Close to 12 million.

[jung]

Close to 12 million.

 

Remember if you are playing with this alternative, you already have $12M into Paps so you only need to allocate $1 maybe $2M of your money to keep Paps If that is what you want to do.

[iortiz]

Remember if you are playing with this alternative' date=' you already have $12M into Paps so you only need to allocate $1 maybe $2M of your money to keep Paps If that is what you want to do.[/quote']

 

If that is the scenario there is no way we can afford Pap. We need to cover other spots as well.

 

I would use the money in pitching depth and BP arms and explore how much Papi is asking.

[jung]

Well you are getting two pitchers and you have your closer if you keep Paps so that leaves you like $10M or $11M for more arms.

[iortiz]

Well you are getting two pitchers and you have your closer if you keep Paps so that leaves you like $10M or $11M for more arms.

 

Let me understand this Jung. User said that we would have 12 M after signing Hanson, Hoover and Beltran, and that the closer, DH, BP arms and pitching depth should be covered as well with that budget (12 M which is a joke BTW), right? Am I missing something?

[jung]

Actually you are right iortiz. We never did post anything up here that accounted for Paps money. I thought we had but I have had so many calculations going so many different ways I forgot what was posted here and what was not.

 

Sorry about that.

 

Forgot my own damn argument from yesterday about the lack of money!

[iortiz]

Actually you are right iortiz. We never did post anything up here that accounted for Paps money. I thought we had but I have had so many calculations going so many different ways I forgot what was posted here and what was not.

 

Sorry about that.

 

It's ok man.

 

Clarified that and if the budget is correct, Pap and Ortiz would be likely gone, since they will ask tons of money and I would prioritise the BP arms and pitching depth vs their money- demands; at least we have Bard and Lavarnway (I think, that they are not ready for the job as a closer/DH but what other options do we have?)

[seabeachfred]

Hey guys, does anyone have a clue as to which way the front office is leaning right now? Any of the beat writers coming out with anything in Boston? I'm way out here in California and I haven't a clue. I have an opinion of what they should be thinking but who knows? PITCHING has to be our main concern. We definately need another solid starter, we need at least two good relievers and we most certainly need a closer. I wouldn't want to risk another closer by committee that Epstein tried to fasten onto us back in '03 with disastrous results. We let Papi and Drew walk, do not resign Varitek and Wakefield and with a few others leaving we ought to have enough to get the job done I think.

 

I'll give our front office this. They sure keep their cards close to their collective vests. We still don't know who they're targeting. I hope things heat up soon.