2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

I think you are missing the point. In this discussion about stats, we aren't trying to confirm our opinions about the players, rather we are trying to confirm our evaluations of the stats as value measures themselves. You can certainly see the value in wanting lean heavier on stats that place the players in a ranking that coincides with our opinions, right? Extending that point forward, our opinions are not infallible, so once we've determined a level of trust with a measure, we can use it to help us correct any bias (which is never completely removed from human opinion) that may occur in our evaluaitons. This is the point of using stats for player evaluation.

 

If you would, and in an attempt to extend the point into an example, please list your Top 10 active offensive players over whatever timeframe you like (2011 season, last 3 years, career, etc). I'll put a chart together that lists the Top 10 (of qualified players) in the following measures: Linear Weights, WAR (batting only), VORP, OPS, OBP, SLG, BA, RBI. Please indicate actual rank (1,2,3,4,etc), and not just the top 10.

I'm just saying that I don't rely on any one or two stats to evaluate players. I like to look at all the stats. I am not disputing or promoting any statistical measures.

[ORS]

I'm just saying that I don't rely on any one or two stats to evaluate players. I like to look at all the stats. I am not disputing or promoting any statistical measures.

Fair enough. However, I don't see many posts from you when someone makes a case for player using traditional (Triple Crown) stats, but there are several stating caution about "over-reliance" on stats when some of the more advance stats are being used. I thought it might be instructive to show how much the advanced stats coincide with opinionated player ranking, especially relative to the Triple Crown stats.

[a700hitter]

Fair enough. However' date=' I don't see many posts from you when someone makes a case for player using traditional (Triple Crown) stats, but there are several stating caution about "over-reliance" on stats when some of the more advance stats are being used. I thought it might be instructive to show how much the advanced stats coincide with opinionated player ranking, especially relative to the Triple Crown stats.[/quote']I don't weigh in supporting those posts either. Posts relying on those measures get plenty criticism from other TalkSox members. I usually don't get into the arguments about one stat vs. another. I think they all have a use and they are all interesting. As I said in an earlier post, if the winning run is on second base with two outs, I'd rather send the .300 hitter to the plate than the .250 hitter with the better OPS and WAR. That doesn't mean that I think the .300 hitter is the better offensive player, but he is the guy that I want in that situation.

[ORS]

I don't weigh in supporting those posts either. Posts relying on those measures get plenty criticism from other TalkSox members. I usually don't get into the arguments about one stat vs. another. I think they all have a use and they are all interesting. As I said in an earlier post' date=' if the winning run is on second base with two outs, I'd rather send the .300 hitter to the plate than the .250 hitter with the better OPS and WAR. That doesn't mean that I think the .300 hitter is the better offensive player, but he is the guy that I want in that situation.[/quote']

Right, but I don't recall any arguments using advanced stats for such specific situations. The people that are using them are addressing are doing so to support more global issues....overall performance rating, predictive value for player acquisition, etc.

[a700hitter]

Right' date=' but I don't recall any arguments using advanced stats for such specific situations. The people that are using them are addressing are doing so to support more global issues....overall performance rating, predictive value for player acquisition, etc.[/quote']I didn't say that people were using them for those specific situations. I was just using it as an example of how all stats have a use and purpose.

[FredLynn]

As with iOrtiz of course it isn't my place to tell you what you should like, so if you like ERA then go for it!

 

Fair enough. And I will.

Baseball is a simple game, really. Its just not that complicated. Some of the metrics I have seen are really stretches and seems to have been invented because someone out there thinks the world needs more numbers.

If and when my friend Orwell makes it over here he can explain the deficiencies in Bill James's stuff far better than I can as he is a mathmatician by trade and well versed in this area.

[iortiz]

I like stats (simple and advanced) and I believe that they are very supportive but as I said, they are not the panacea.

 

My buddies love using advanced stats, and they actually use them very well. Nevertheless, sometimes they are terrible noticing some aspects (strategy and tactic) of the game while it is playing. Balance is the key.

 

As I said, sabermetrics are not that difficult to use or apply, you just need to interpret and correlate well the meaning of the stats for a given situation, that's all. What I really find interesting in advanced stats is how you can create your own methods/models like Markov (simulate the impact of Each event) or Heipp ("plus-one" method) did with their estimators in Linear weight, for example.

 

Anyway... I still like BA.

[seabeachfred]

The WAR and VORP and all that other stuff makes my head feel like it's exploding. To me I want to know what a person's batting average is and what it is with runners in scoring position. To batters hitting in the # 3-6 spots I want to know how many runs they've driven in. That's what wins games. Sure OBP is important but I want a solid hitter up there with the game on the line and if a guy is hitting over 300 most likely he is the one I want up there. I know there are those of you on this board that are big Bill James supporters but I think the guy is mainly bogus because none of his stats can read what kind of guts, heart and balls a batter has when he steps up to the plate with the game on the line. I look at BA and RBI's and RISP and I have a pretty good idea if I have the right man up there.

[example1]

I would love it if someone would take ORS up on his request...

 

Top 10 players off the top of your head, based on observation of the game...

 

I don't think he's trying to play gotcha, just trying to test/make a point.

[example1]

As with iOrtiz of course it isn't my place to tell you what you should like' date=' so if you like ERA then go for it![/i']

 

Fair enough. And I will.

Baseball is a simple game, really. Its just not that complicated. Some of the metrics I have seen are really stretches and seems to have been invented because someone out there thinks the world needs more numbers.

If and when my friend Orwell makes it over here he can explain the deficiencies in Bill James's stuff far better than I can as he is a mathmatician by trade and well versed in this area.

 

Plenty of people can explain the deficiencies in Bill James' stuff. That doesn't make the task of baseball analysis misguided. It just says that James didn't get everything right.

[a700hitter]

I would love it if someone would take ORS up on his request...

 

Top 10 players off the top of your head, based on observation of the game...

 

I don't think he's trying to play gotcha, just trying to test/make a point.

If Doji and I made our top 10 lists, they would probably be very different. Don't you think so?

[example1]

Let's see!

[a700hitter]

Let's see!

Doji first.

[FredLynn]

Let's see!

 

No problem at all.

The top 10 players are: Albert Pujols, Albert Pujols, Albert Pujols..................and so forth.

[iortiz]

mmmm.... I'm not sure what you want to probe making that list and then compare each other player's WAR. I just find it worthless.

 

As A700 said, you don't need to look at sabermetrics in order to know that Pujols, Gonzalez, Bautista, Votto, Cabrera, etc. are great players. Which one is better? Well, It depends on what you want to look at -- RBI, OPS, WAR, BA, 2B, RAR, etc., etc., etc. -- and still, I find it worthless, since you can go to the tables and figure it out

 

Where I find it interesting the use of stats for example, are in criterial-situations, like judging whether Carl Crawford was a good signing or not by the the Red Sox, after and before the season. Regarding on this situation, I'd put for example the next question: why would you like to sign a player who would play/played at the middle/bottom of the order great part of the season (regardless you're plenty of LHHs) and who gonna cost you 142 M/7yrs --Sure, he put .296/.337/.444/.781 in his career in TB and had a 6.1 WAR in 2010 TB -- when you could sign a type-guy like Markakis who has even better BA/OBP/SLG/OPS after 6 years with the O's-- just saying a name --and who arguably would cost substantially less than Crawford and who could delivery decent numbers without all the risks associated in the transaction(financial, time, adaption, etc.) and mostly when your FA record at big tickets is horrible? -- maybe JH had a little bit of these arguments in order to say what he said about CC --. If you were the Phillis or SF you arguably could have a case, but would you have a case with the Red Sox? I'm not sure.

 

In this case your arguments could come from advanced-stats and the way you see the game... But in the end, this is like religion or politics, nobody would be completely right at all. Sure we'd spend a lot fun, that's for sure.

 

BTW.. As a fan? I liked CC before the season, these days? I'm not sure about him anymore. As a Owner? I would go for a guy like Markakis in order to play in the mid/bottom of the order and I'd better improve other areas like our pitching-depth/BP/rotation and even the farm.

[jung]

I figured people must have seen today's news but having not seen it posted here yet I thought well maybe not. Apparently the Padres have indicated interest in Lackey if the Sox are willing to eat "more than half his contract".

[jacksonianmarch]

My guess is they would have to eat over $30 million to make the deal palatable

[iortiz]

I figured people must have seen today's news but having not seen it posted here yet I thought well maybe not. Apparently the Padres have indicated interest in Lackey if the Sox are willing to eat "more than half his contract".

 

51%?... I'd make the deal in a heartbeat...

[jung]

Presuming there actually is some interest from SD, I think the "more than half the contract" comment was more an effort to set a place where the discussion might start. Black is in SD which might lend some credibility to it.

 

If the discussion starts at 51% that would give me hope that there is a chance that it might end at the receiving team paying about $5M per year which is a number I can live with. I would like the idea of Lackey ending up clear across the country in the other league as well. But you are right. If they would really swallow 49% I would be ecstatic.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would assume the number would be more like 33%.

[SoxSport]

There's a separate thread on this.

 

I just posted there might be a 3-way deal in the works, where the Cubs put up some of Lackey's salary in lieu of any players to the Sox for Epstein. In return, they get Hoyer, too.

 

The Padres get Lackey, and the Red Sox get rid of him paying maybe 1/3 of his remaining salary. 1/3 cash goes to the Padres from the Cubs for Epstein. Red Sox eat 1/3, Padres pay 1/3, Cubs pay 1/3 to Padres. Padres pay net zero for Lackey, give up Hoyer.

 

This one looks too good to work.

[jung]

Any one of those Theo/Lackey combinations would likely make folks around here pretty happy.

[SoxSport]

Off-topic, I was thinking tonite of the similarities between the Sox-Cardinals 04 World Series and the current one. Except the Cardinals role is now reversed: in 04, the Cardinals were the powerhouse team, and the Red Sox were the hot wild card upstarts who swept the favored Cardinals.

 

This time, the Cardinals are the wild card upstarts, and Texas the favored team.

 

My hunch is the Cardinals will win in 6.

[jung]

Cards have a better number 1 starting pitcher although Tex starting pitching is really good. In a short series though the better number 1 has a real impact.

 

Playing four in the NL series, the DH, no DH thing is a real advantage for the NL team. This is for me the most disturbing thing about the DH especially now that we have inter-league play in the regular season.

[FredLynn]

51%?... I'd make the deal in a heartbeat...

 

99%? I make that deal in a heartbeat.

[a700hitter]

There's a separate thread on this.

 

I just posted there might be a 3-way deal in the works, where the Cubs put up some of Lackey's salary in lieu of any players to the Sox for Epstein. In return, they get Hoyer, too.

 

The Padres get Lackey, and the Red Sox get rid of him paying maybe 1/3 of his remaining salary. 1/3 cash goes to the Padres from the Cubs for Epstein. Red Sox eat 1/3, Padres pay 1/3, Cubs pay 1/3 to Padres. Padres pay net zero for Lackey, give up Hoyer.

 

This one looks too good to work.

This off season started off crazy and strange and it looks to be getting very bizarre.

[example1]

Regarding on this situation' date=' I'd put for example the next question: why would you like to sign a player who would play/played at the middle/bottom of the order great part of the season (regardless you're plenty of LHHs) and who gonna cost you 142 M/7yrs --Sure, he put .296/.337/.444/.781 in his career in TB and had a 6.1 WAR in 2010 TB -- when you could sign a type-guy like Markakis who has even better BA/OBP/SLG/OPS after 6 years with the O's-- just saying a name --and who arguably would cost substantially less than Crawford and who could delivery decent numbers without all the risks associated in the transaction(financial, time, adaption, etc.) and mostly when your FA record at big tickets is horrible? [/quote']

 

1. You should ask a700. He knows who the best players are and was the strongest advocate of signing CC on this site last year. He probably has the answer for why it was smart aside from the numbers.

 

2. I realize you're picking Markakis randomly, but he's not a random player. He's a very good player who is still under Baltimore's control from his initial signing and, as far as I know, was never available to be signed. Seems like a completely random and arbitrary example. Maybe look at another OF who was actually available at the time?

 

 

BTW.. As a fan? I liked CC before the season, these days? I'm not sure about him anymore. As a Owner? I would go for a guy like Markakis in order to play in the mid/bottom of the order and I'd better improve other areas like our pitching-depth/BP/rotation and even the farm.

 

Let's use this as an opportunity to use the advanced metrics, shall we?

 

You say "a guy like" Markakis. Okay, following the 2010 season, here are the best RF in the game from 2008-2010:

 

Jayson Werth

Ichiro Suzuki

Chin-Soo Choo

JD Drew

Nick Markakis

 

So aside from not being available, he was also the 5th best RF in baseball leading up to that time. He was the 11th best OF during that time, ahead of guys like Granderson, Tori Hunter, Jason Bay, etc., He's not just some guy.

 

That said, between 2008 and 2010 do you know who the 2nd most valuable OF was?

[a700hitter]

I just posted there might be a 3-way deal in the works, where the Cubs put up some of Lackey's salary in lieu of any players to the Sox for Epstein. In return, they get Hoyer, too.

 

Typical Theo! Trying to pull off an absurd 3 way deal even as he is on his way out the door.

[a700hitter]

Let's use this as an opportunity to use the advanced metrics, shall we?

 

You say "a guy like" Markakis. Okay, following the 2010 season, here are the best RF in the game from 2008-2010:

 

Jayson Werth

Ichiro Suzuki

Chin-Soo Choo

JD Drew

Nick Markakis

 

So aside from not being available, he was also the 5th best RF in baseball leading up to that time. He was the 11th best OF during that time, ahead of guys like Granderson, Tori Hunter, Jason Bay, etc., He's not just some guy.

 

That said, between 2008 and 2010 do you know who the 2nd most valuable OF was?

After 2011, I'd probably rate Swisher ahead of the others.

[example1]

Typical Theo! Trying to pull off an absurd 3 way deal even as he is on his way out the door.