Jonathan Papelbon, can we lock him up please?

[SCM33]

Can we show this guy a little respect?

 

Hes on pace for his 6th straight season of 35+ saves. He is 27/28 in save opportunities. He has proven last year was a fluke. He has been remarkably consistent and durable in his time with the RedSox. He has the ability to pitch 1+ innings to get tough outs.

 

Most of all, hes a proven post season closer, and hes proven he can handle this market.

 

Weve gone year to year with the guy for 3+ years. Can we show this guy some love and offer him a 3 year deal?

 

There have been zero indication that he is going to break down......and has more than proven he is worth it.

[AtWork]

I'm not so convinced that he won't go back to his stubborn, out of shape, haphazard delivery version once he's no longer in a contract year and I think he'll get paid more than he's worth in free agency. I'd much rather use Bard as the closer and sign 2 elite set up guys than re-sign Papelbon and use Bard as the set up man for the same price.

[rlchange]

Why would anyone disrespect him at all? He is a great closer, yes he goes through struggles, but what pitcher doesnt. Lackey used to be a good pitcher, look at him now, he struggles. He might become good again someday, hopefully he will. I still dont understand disrespecting Papelbon, a lot of sox fans love him and I only come upon a few that have not been appreciative for him.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Lol at everyone last year who wanted him to walk. Oh and while you're at it Theo lock up Ellsbury too!

[SCM33]

I'm not so convinced that he won't go back to his stubborn' date=' out of shape, haphazard delivery version once he's no longer in a contract year and I think he'll get paid more than he's worth in free agency. I'd much rather use Bard as the closer and sign 2 elite set up guys than re-sign Papelbon and use Bard as the set up man for the same price.[/quote']

 

What???

 

Out of shape?

 

Haphazard delivery???

 

No longer in a contract year???

 

You do realize he's been in a "contract year" for like, the last 3 or 4 seasons right? Every year he signs a 1 year deal. Also, Sorry....I dont remember him out of shape, or having a "haphazard" delivery.

 

BTW, Bard has been AWFUL in his closing opportunities and his home/road splits are ridiculously inconsistent. He is almost a completely different pitcher on the road. You really want him closing important games on the road at Yankee Stadium in September/October????

[AtWork]

What???

 

Out of shape?

 

Haphazard delivery???

 

No longer in a contract year???

 

You do realize he's been in a "contract year" for like, the last 3 or 4 seasons right? Every year he signs a 1 year deal. Also, Sorry....I dont remember him out of shape, or having a "haphazard" delivery.

 

BTW, Bard has been AWFUL in his closing opportunities and his home/road splits are ridiculously inconsistent. He is almost a completely different pitcher on the road. You really want him closing important games on the road at Yankee Stadium in September/October????

 

No. It's silly to think that arbitration where a player is guaranteed a 20% raise is a contract year. If you don't remember his delivery being all over the place, review video from the last two years. There were two years where he was all over the place and did not have his typical movement on his fastballs, or throw his splitter, etc.

 

As for Bard's stats, I realize they're not the best in save situations, but at the same time he's never been named the closer. And if Papelbon asks for $15 million a year over 3 years like he likely will, I think the Sox will be wise to let him walk.

[iortiz]

How much would he demand for that 3 year contract?

[AtWork]

How much would he demand for that 3 year contract?

 

He's compared himself to Mo multiple times. Considering there's typically a 10% inflation rate in contracts per year, I think 3 years/$45 million would be a reasonable request for him this season considering his career and this year. If anything, I would be surprised if he didn't ask for more.

[iortiz]

He's compared himself to Mo multiple times. Considering there's typically a 10% inflation rate in contracts per year' date=' I think 3 years/$45 million would be a reasonable request for him this season considering his career and this year. If anything, I would be surprised if he didn't ask for more.[/quote']

 

A lot of money for a closer, an elite one, but a closer. Considering that Drew and Cameron will be out next season, I see a lot of chances that they keep him, but not sure if 3-year term deal, maybe maximum 2. I think that we should run first for Papi and give him 2 more years and then try to close Pap.

[SoxSport]

The real question is "Bora$$--will you let the Red Sox lock up Pap?"

The answer is no--that's not the way Bora$$ works. After all, he has a huge

agent empire to feed. He needs to maximize his commission.

That means open market competition.

 

Besides, the Red Sox have a closer in waiting with Bard.

The caveat is they don't have a good setup option to replace Bard--

Jenks is clearly not the answer, as was intended.

[Dojji]

Papelbon is not a Boras client. His agents are the Levinsons

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lol at everyone last year who wanted him to walk. Oh and while you're at it Theo lock up Ellsbury too!

 

Yeah. I was one of those guys but let me tell you. I'll enjoy eating this crow. Anytime I am predicting a bad season and a guy outperforms my expectations, it's a good day.

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's compared himself to Mo multiple times. Considering there's typically a 10% inflation rate in contracts per year' date=' I think 3 years/$45 million would be a reasonable request for him this season considering his career and this year. If anything, I would be surprised if he didn't ask for more.[/quote']

 

I don't know who would give him 3/45 other than the Yankees. I would be surprised if he got more than 3/36, maybe 3/39, and I think that's right around where the Sox will draw the line. Maybe the Cubs and maybe the Angels will pay him 3/45, but I'm not sold on either, plus I'm sure if it's, say 3/42 from the Cubs vs 3/39 from the Sox, he would come back to the Sox where he likes the system and is on a winning team. Just my thoughts

[SoxFanForsyth]

Also, FWIW, I don't buy into the contract year ********. I can see maybe working harder in the offseason, but going from 2010 Pap to 2007 Pap just because he worked a little harder in the offseason? No chance. He has figured something out in his delivery and has been nothing less than brilliant this year.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Yeah. I was one of those guys but let me tell you. I'll enjoy eating this crow. Anytime I am predicting a bad season and a guy outperforms my expectations' date=' it's a good day.[/quote']

 

Well at least you stepped up. People who doubted Ortiz are pretty much gone too. Crawford is next in line to make posters eat a big plate of crow.

[Dojji]

I don't know who would give him 3/45 other than the Yankees. I would be surprised if he got more than 3/36' date=' maybe 3/39, and I think that's right around where the Sox will draw the line. Maybe the Cubs and maybe the Angels will pay him 3/45, but I'm not sold on either, plus I'm sure if it's, say 3/42 from the Cubs vs 3/39 from the Sox, he would come back to the Sox where he likes the system and is on a winning team. Just my thoughts[/quote']

 

The Cubs are in financial trouble (nothing major, they just aren't anxious to take on salary right now) and the Angels are getting it done with Jordan Walden.

 

Can't think of a team that needs a closer, can definitely pay for a closer, and is the kind of team that is wont to solve its problems with big contracts. Of course I'm assuming that the Yankees are committed to Rivera when I say this.

 

What I'm curious about is if it gets to the point where it looks like he might go FA, if Papelbon will advertize his services as a pure closer, or as a possible starting pitcher to improve his bargaining position? We know he had the talent back when, we know he's arrogant enough to pull stunts not unlike that, and I can think of a number of teams that would pay deep into 8 digits for a potential high end starter with that kinda stuff even if his secondary pitches are kinda rusty (he'd definitely need to exhume his change, and it wasn't a great pitch).

[a700hitter]

He's not just an elite closer. He's the best in Red Sox history. I remember teams that lost pennants because they lost 30+ games after the 7th inning (1976). This guy has spoiled the fans. He blows 5 or 6 games in one year and everyone loses their minds. The fact is that the Sox record in games when they are ahead going into th 8th this season is phenomenal. Bard and Papelbon are an incredible tandem-- a potent weapon. If we lose one of them, Tito would have to manage the 8th and 9th innings. That can't have a good outcome.

 

Papelbon saves 30+ games every year, and for context, he got to 200 saves faster than anyone, including the great Mariano. He's only 30, and he's got lots of years left int he tank. By all means, let him walk. f*** him. Maybe he will go to the Yanks and close for them. If Red Sox management would be stupid enough to let that happen, ....well, I don't even want to think about it.

[Dojji]

If having to face Mariano every year hasn't taught this team what an elite closer can do, it's time for me to go become a Royals fan or something.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Also' date=' FWIW, I don't buy into the contract year ********. I can see maybe working harder in the offseason, but going from 2010 Pap to 2007 Pap just because he worked a little harder in the offseason? No chance. He has figured something out in his delivery and has been nothing less than brilliant this year.[/quote']

 

What makes you say that the offseason doesn't have a big impact on in season performance? I disagree. I think a focused off season is the key to a successful year. I think when a lot of players think they have "made it" their offseason routine becomes less rigorous and performance suffers. Granted, conditioning and what not is much more important for a guy who will be expected to shoulder a 200 inning burden but, Pap's delivery has changed over the years more times than Dennis Rodman's hair color. That's a sign of bad conditioning.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox do bring him back, though. But keep in mind, Adrian's salary is going up next year and guys like Ellsbury and Bard are also going to be making more money. If Ortiz comes back, there isn't going to be a ton of room to pay Papelbon and the bullpen could be just fine without him. Bard could close. Albers and Aceves have looked great and you could pay less money for a more than capable 7th or 8th inning reliever instead of paying an arm and a leg for Pap.

 

I'd rather see us pursue somebody like CJ wilson or Matt Garza via trade. SP > RP

[jacksonianmarch]

He's gonna ask for 3yrs $45 mil and probably get it. You all see what KRod got and that was with diminishing velocity in his contract yr. Papelbon has looked very tough all season except for one blowup against the A's. He's gonna get paid

[SoxFanForsyth]

What makes you say that the offseason doesn't have a big impact on in season performance? I disagree. I think a focused off season is the key to a successful year. I think when a lot of players think they have "made it" their offseason routine becomes less rigorous and performance suffers. Granted, conditioning and what not is much more important for a guy who will be expected to shoulder a 200 inning burden but, Pap's delivery has changed over the years more times than Dennis Rodman's hair color. That's a sign of bad conditioning.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox do bring him back, though. But keep in mind, Adrian's salary is going up next year and guys like Ellsbury and Bard are also going to be making more money. If Ortiz comes back, there isn't going to be a ton of room to pay Papelbon and the bullpen could be just fine without him. Bard could close. Albers and Aceves have looked great and you could pay less money for a more than capable 7th or 8th inning reliever instead of paying an arm and a leg for Pap.

 

I'd rather see us pursue somebody like CJ wilson or Matt Garza via trade. SP > RP

 

I nEver said it didn't make a difference. I said that the turnaround that Pap had in 2011 thus far is due to far more than just a better workout regimen in the offseason. As in the transformation is probably due to a kink in his delivery that he has pinpointed and altered.

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's gonna ask for 3yrs $45 mil and probably get it. You all see what KRod got and that was with diminishing velocity in his contract yr. Papelbon has looked very tough all season except for one blowup against the A's. He's gonna get paid

 

Who is going to give him 3/45? The only suitors who need a closer and have the money would be the Cubs, and that's actually about it. They have a good bit of money coming off the books this offseason, but I think the Sox will probably pony up and give him 3/36, and I think he will take it. Mo only got what he got because of his long tenure with the Yankees. Pap is more in line with a Soriano type contract without all the opt out clauses

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

I nEver said it didn't make a difference. I said that the turnaround that Pap had in 2011 thus far is due to far more than just a better workout regimen in the offseason. As in the transformation is probably due to a kink in his delivery that he has pinpointed and altered.

 

Yeah, I just think you're underrating the affects an increased conditioning/training regimen can have on a pitchers consistency. For any pitcher success is all about consistent release point and being able to repeat the delivery. Remember how much this was talked about when Beckett broke out in '07? If a guy can't repeat his delivery consistently, that's usually the result of sub-par conditioning or sometimes an injury the player is concealing and trying to pitch around. Usually though, it's just that the conditioning isn't where it should be. Pap's delivery over the past couple years has been all over the place and I think he stepped up his off season routine to curb the problem. If you look at his first two years as closer (easily his best years IMO) his WHIP was 0.776 in '06 and 0.771 the following year. His BB/9 in '06 was 1.7 and 2.3 in '07. Those numbers spiked in the following years and in 09-10 his whip was in the 1.20 territory and BB/9 was 3+. This year his BB/9 is back in the 1+ range and his WHIP is back under 1.00. Consistency rules.

 

He's also the kind of guy who thrives on movement. I remember Pedro talking about how his release was the key to the movement on his fastball. He brought the ball past his ear and released farther out in front of his body than most pitchers. That caused his crazy tailing movement. Pap has a different delivery, but I think he also has a release point that is later than most guys and hitting that consistently is what makes him so dominant. If there were a serious "kink" in his delivery and not something subtle like release point I think Ferrell would have found it while he was the pitching coach. He was a pretty attentive dude and I think he did a great job all around while he was here.

 

From the Herald: "According to manager Terry Francona, Papelbon’s turnaround can be traced to better command of his fastball. But Papelbon credits a more consistent delivery, pointing to more diligent preparation with strength and conditioning coach Dave Page.

 

'I feel better this year at this stage of the season than I have in seven past seasons," said Papelbon, a free agent at season’s end who has put himself in line for a multiyear contract with an annual salary comparable to Rivera’s ($15 million). “My delivery is pretty sharp right now, which allows me to have fastball command. The ability to keep my delivery, on a nightly basis, is what makes or breaks me.'”

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Also, I think the dodgers, cardinals, and maybe the phillies and diamondbacks could be in the market for a closer. I don't think the Sox will be his only suitors.

[SoxSport]

Papelbon is not a Boras client. His agents are the Levinsons

 

Sorry. You're right about that. That's good. Better chance to extend him.

But they also have Bard waiting in the wings to close.

It may come down to who can replace Bard at setup. Jenks looks like a bust.

Wheeler? LH/RH combo?

You wonder what their thinking is on Pap and Papi--as well.

 

And then there's Ellsbury. He's got Boras. The Red Sox have CC, Reddick and Kalish--

but plenty of time to sort that out.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

I think if Albers can sustain this years boost in k/9 he could be a legitimate answer in 7th/8th innings. I don't think you trust him enough to not bring someone from outside the organization to help with set up duties, but should Papelbon leave, he's definitely worth keeping around until he proves this increase in wiffs is a mirage.

[Dojji]

Don't forget the Pocket Ace. Guy with a fastball like his can strike out more people if he isn't half stretched out like he has had to be this year. Put Aceves in a 1 inning role and he could be a decent power guy himself -- but I will say that as one of the rare throwback multi inning relievers who is actually effective, he's incredibly valuable as is.

[A-Gon28]

Has anyone ever tried to join sonsofsamhorn.net

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Don't forget the Pocket Ace. Guy with a fastball like his can strike out more people if he isn't half stretched out like he has had to be this year. Put Aceves in a 1 inning role and he could be a decent power guy himself -- but I will say that as one of the rare throwback multi inning relievers who is actually effective' date=' he's incredibly valuable as is.[/quote']

 

Agreed. I like the idea of Weiland and Miller in the bullpen full time next year too. Miller is all over the place, but his fastball seems to play better in the bullpen. Weiland I think could be a Scot Shields type down the road.

 

Speaking of not forgetting guys in the 'pen. How good has wheeler been since getting off the DL?

[Dojji]

He's gonna ask for 3yrs $45 mil and probably get it. You all see what KRod got and that was with diminishing velocity in his contract yr. Papelbon has looked very tough all season except for one blowup against the A's. He's gonna get paid

 

By who? All the big market teams that would normally be a threat are either cash strapped, rebuilding, or have a guy. And the market is going to be saturated with quality high end RP arms, meaning that the highest-end guy is going to have to compete with "better values," which wouldn't matter so much for SP or position players, but we're talking about a relief pitcher here.

 

The Yankees aren't going bring in someone that high-profile behind Rivera, they'd have a riot on their hands, they're stuck with that situation for at least 1 more year, and probably most of 'em don't mind one bit. They'll probably bring in a guy like Valverde instead who's not a threat to Mo if both are helpful but is a viable replacement.

 

So who's really going to compete with the Sox for Papelbon? The Tigers are the only team out there that's in position to make a move, and they're not big "elite closer" type of team. I have them pegged as Dotel's next team. They're gonna look for a quality pitcher to replace Valverde, but they're not gonna bust the bank on a reliever, it wouldn't be like that GM. The rest of the teams that have the open role and the cash aren't contenders, I can't see Papelbon taking them seriously (teams like the Jays, O's, White Sox, Mariners, etc.)