Jonathan Papelbon, can we lock him up please?

[Dojji]

As for Bard' date=' Peter Gammons keeps talking about him becoming a starter. If Gammons is saying it, someone in the organization has been thinking about it.[/quote']

 

That would be stupid. I'd worry about all of his stuff, command, pitch selection and mental preparedness if he went into the rotation. They were all in play as reasons to move him to the pen in the first place.

[AtWork]

lol. well if that's the qualifications for talking about a potential move the Sox might make I'm surprised this forum has posts at all.

 

[Dojji]

Nope, you don't get to dodge my prior post.

 

Yes I do, this is a forum, not one of us is contractually obligated to respond to you. Considering your handle and the attitude you've already shown here, you're on moderately thin ice as it is, and I know a thing or two about thin ice. Don't push your luck.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Yes I do' date=' this is a forum, not one of us is contractually obligated to respond to you. Considering your handle and the attitude you've already shown here, you're on moderately thin ice as it is, and I know a thing or two about thin ice. Don't push your luck.[/quote']

 

 

Haha. My handle is a reference joke and you're the one getting angry and serious. I assume a mod or an admin would let me know if I was on thin ice. You're being a bit of a baby, no?

 

Oh, BTW, player A was Dan Bard at home. Player B was Dan Bard on the road.

 

Sorry you're having a bad day.

[Dojji]

Saying there wont be a market out there because there is no theoretical need is essentially creating a false sense of security for yourself. He's a closer who has been dominant and still throws top notch stuff. He's got a playoff resume that is excellent and closed out a world series. No closer on the market has that to his name. He's the biggest name amongst a fair amount of closers' date=' but he's getting the biggest contract. I guarantee that. He'll get his 3 yrs, and he will make at least $40 mil over those three.[/quote']

 

And I'm here to tell you that this is the worst possible time for a closer to be testing FA waters. There's a large minority of teams, if not an outright majority, that de-emphasize the pen, and view closers as the "best of all possible pitchers who are too crap to be starters." Not that they ignore the closer's role outright, they'll get good relievers, but shelling out 8 figures for one isn't in their minds. Any team like that will recognize that Papelbon is better than, say, Jose Valverde, but still sign Valverde which leaves them free to spend more money in other areas.

 

Most teams also are more concerned about getting to the postseason than about what happens if they do. Papelbon definitely doesn't help you there as much as bringing in a top notch power hitter or premium SP can. And there's a lot of teams I honestly think Papelbon won't sign with, as he wants a chance to pitch for the all time saves lead, and you need a good team around you for that. If you look at teams that are poised for postseason contention over the next 3 years, most of them already have a guy they think is good enough (Axford, Walden, Marmol, Wilson, Feliz etc), and if those teams are budget-conscious at all, that means Paps is out of their plans.

 

Point of all this is that Papelbon's market options are definitely limited. He's going to have maybe 2-3 teams in play for him at most besides the Sox, and that's if the Yankees jump in. He's a high end player, but he hits the market at a time when teams are gunshy about big contracts in the first place, and as a reliever, his position is the first to suffer when teams' wallets start screaming in pain, so I really think he's going to get less this year than he would get in a normal year.

[AtWork]

And I'm here to tell you that this is the worst possible time for a closer to be testing FA waters. There's a large minority of teams, if not an outright majority, that de-emphasize the pen, and view closers as the "best of all possible pitchers who are too crap to be starters." Not that they ignore the closer's role outright, they'll get good relievers, but shelling out 8 figures for one isn't in their minds. Any team like that will recognize that Papelbon is better than, say, Jose Valverde, but still sign Valverde which leaves them free to spend more money in other areas.

 

Most teams also are more concerned about getting to the postseason than about what happens if they do. Papelbon definitely doesn't help you there as much as bringing in a top notch power hitter or premium SP can. And there's a lot of teams I honestly think Papelbon won't sign with, as he wants a chance to pitch for the all time saves lead, and you need a good team around you for that. If you look at teams that are poised for postseason contention over the next 3 years, most of them already have a guy they think is good enough (Axford, Walden, Marmol, Wilson, Feliz etc), and if those teams are budget-conscious at all, that means Paps is out of their plans.

 

Point of all this is that Papelbon's market options are definitely limited. He's going to have maybe 2-3 teams in play for him at most besides the Sox, and that's if the Yankees jump in. He's a high end player, but he hits the market at a time when teams are gunshy about big contracts in the first place, and as a reliever, his position is the first to suffer when teams' wallets start screaming in pain, so I really think he's going to get less this year than he would get in a normal year.

 

I think as multiple other posters have pointed out, he's going to require 3 years and at least $40 million. So why don't we discuss if we think he's worth that rather than try to guess what teams will or won't be interested in him?

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

And I/m hear to tell you that this is the worst possible time for a closer to be testing FA waters. There's a large minority of teams, if not an outright majority, that de-emphasize the pen, and view closers as the "best of all possible pitchers who are too crap to be starters." Not that they ignore the closer's role outright, they'll get good relievers, but shelling out 8 figures for one isn't in their minds. Any team like that will recognize that Papelbon is better than, say, Jose Valverde. Any team that has a budget would still sign Valverde over Papelbon. Signing Valverde leaves them free to spend more money in other areas.

 

 

I still don't understand what makes you say this though. I don't think theres any way we could possibly know for certain what the market for a closer will be - or for any player for that matter. Would you have guessed Werth would have been paid what he was paid? A couple years ago would you have expected Francisco Cordero to get 46 million? People have pointed out that teams like the White Sox, Dodgers, and Nationals among a few other teams could be in it for a closer.

 

Think about it, we had no idea before 2007 that the Red Sox had set their sights in Dice-K years prior. They coveted him and put a number on him and got their man. Unless you're going on something we don't know I don't see how you could no for sure that this is the "worst possible time" to be a closer on the market and how GM's around the league value bullpen arms. We can't know for sure a team like the diamondbacks or even the bluejays might come out of no where. Maybe Papelbon is their Dice-K, the guy they've been watching for a while who they're willing to offer a lot of scratch because they believe he will add something to their team that they're missing to put them over the top. We can't know that isn't going to happen.

 

Most teams also are more concerned about getting to the postseason than about what happens if they do. Papelbon definitely doesn't help you there as much as bringing in a top notch power hitter or premium SP can. And there's a lot of teams I honestly think Papelbon won't sign with, as he wants a chance to pitch for the all time saves lead, and you need a good team around you for that. If you look at teams that are poised for postseason contention over the next 3 years, most of them already have a guy they think is good enough (Axford, Walden, Marmol, Wilson, Feliz etc), and if those teams are budget-conscious at all, that means Paps is out of their plans.

 

The one thing Papelbon has said time and time again is that he wants to set the bar for other closers on the market and that he intends to cash in and deserves to be one of the highest paid at his position.

 

Point of all this is that Papelbon's market options are definitely limited. He's going to have maybe 2-3 teams in play for him at most besides the Sox, and that's if the Yankees jump in. He's a high end player, but he hits the market at a time when teams are gunshy about big contracts in the first place, and as a reliever, his position is the first to suffer when teams' wallets start screaming in pain, so I really think he's going to get less this year than he would get in a normal year.

 

Teams are gun shy about big contracts? Jason Werth got a huge deal. Adam Dunn got 4/56, Tulowitzski was signed to a 100 million dollar extension. Big contracts are happening and not exclusively from big market teams. For relievers, Soriano did just get 3/35 and he's got a history of arm trouble and not nearly the track record that Papelbon has as a closer.

 

edit -- clarity

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

I think as multiple other posters have pointed out' date=' he's going to require 3 years and at least $40 million. So why don't we discuss if we think he's worth that rather than try to guess what teams will or won't be interested in him?[/quote']

 

I think he's trying to say that because there won't be a market for closers that Papelbon will be worth less to other teams and therefore will be an easy re-sign for the Sox. He's already making 12 mil a year so anything other than a 3 year deal for north of 36 mil probably isn't going to work for Pap.

[AtWork]

I think he's trying to say that because there won't be a market for closers that Papelbon will be worth less to other teams and therefore will be an easy re-sign for the Sox. He's already making 12 mil a year so anything other than a 3 year deal for north of 36 mil probably isn't going to work for Pap.

 

I think he wants Papelbon back, but not at the price that it will likely take, so he's pretending that Papelbon won't make $36+ million over three years. I could be wrong, but it looks like he's the only poster in this thread that doesn't think Papelbon is going to make that kind of money, if not more.

[Palodios]

That would be stupid. I'd worry about all of his stuff' date=' command, pitch selection and mental preparedness if he went into the rotation. They were all in play as reasons to move him to the pen in the first place.[/quote']

 

CJ Wilson from 2007-2009: Average WAR per year 1.1

CJ Wilson from 2010-2011: Average WAR per year 4.8

 

Moving elite relievers to starters is a pretty good idea if it is going to work. Bard had a 1.5 WAR last year, that's it, despite seeming like a completely untouchable player. It would definitely be interesting to see what happens.

[jacksonianmarch]

And I'm here to tell you that this is the worst possible time for a closer to be testing FA waters. There's a large minority of teams, if not an outright majority, that de-emphasize the pen, and view closers as the "best of all possible pitchers who are too crap to be starters." Not that they ignore the closer's role outright, they'll get good relievers, but shelling out 8 figures for one isn't in their minds. Any team like that will recognize that Papelbon is better than, say, Jose Valverde, but still sign Valverde which leaves them free to spend more money in other areas.

 

Most teams also are more concerned about getting to the postseason than about what happens if they do. Papelbon definitely doesn't help you there as much as bringing in a top notch power hitter or premium SP can. And there's a lot of teams I honestly think Papelbon won't sign with, as he wants a chance to pitch for the all time saves lead, and you need a good team around you for that. If you look at teams that are poised for postseason contention over the next 3 years, most of them already have a guy they think is good enough (Axford, Walden, Marmol, Wilson, Feliz etc), and if those teams are budget-conscious at all, that means Paps is out of their plans.

 

Point of all this is that Papelbon's market options are definitely limited. He's going to have maybe 2-3 teams in play for him at most besides the Sox, and that's if the Yankees jump in. He's a high end player, but he hits the market at a time when teams are gunshy about big contracts in the first place, and as a reliever, his position is the first to suffer when teams' wallets start screaming in pain, so I really think he's going to get less this year than he would get in a normal year.

 

You are all nice and snug under your blanket of false security. Papelbon will get paid, period. It's going to happen

[jacksonianmarch]

CJ Wilson from 2007-2009: Average WAR per year 1.1

CJ Wilson from 2010-2011: Average WAR per year 4.8

 

Moving elite relievers to starters is a pretty good idea if it is going to work. Bard had a 1.5 WAR last year, that's it, despite seeming like a completely untouchable player. It would definitely be interesting to see what happens.

 

Bard was a disaster in the minors as a starter. They cleaned up his mechanics out of the stretch and simplified his arsenal. Moving him out of that comfort zone would be a potential disaster. Paps, OTOH, was always a good starter in the minors before he became a closer. His arsenal is deep enough that he could be useful as a starter

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Bard was a disaster in the minors as a starter. They cleaned up his mechanics out of the stretch and simplified his arsenal. Moving him out of that comfort zone would be a potential disaster. Paps' date=' OTOH, was always a good starter in the minors before he became a closer. His arsenal is deep enough that he could be useful as a starter[/quote']

 

Really? I think the opposite. You're right about Bard being terrible as a starter, and you're right about Papelbon being much better statistically than Bard was in the minors while starting, but do you really think Papelbon has better off-speed stuff than Bard? Bard has a pretty nice change and a devastating slurve. Papelbon lives and dies by his fastball and I don't think he has the secondary pitches to go through a major league line up more than twice.

[SoxSport]

Remember Theo's grand experiment with Ellsbury--moving him to LF?

I hope he remembers it if he starts to tinker with Bard.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

What was wrong with that? Ells in left in '07 is part of the reason we won a WS

[Station 13]

Remember Theo's grand experiment with Ellsbury--moving him to LF?

I hope he remembers it if he starts to tinker with Bard.

 

Totally different. Ells got Beltre'd. Freak thing do occurred. It's like the saying; s*** happens.

 

Bard as a starter is an interesting idea. He wants to try it. Why not give him a chance? If it doesn't work, he goes back to being a reliever.

[Station 13]

Bard was a disaster in the minors as a starter. They cleaned up his mechanics out of the stretch and simplified his arsenal. Moving him out of that comfort zone would be a potential disaster. Paps' date=' OTOH, was always a good starter in the minors before he became a closer. His arsenal is deep enough that he could be useful as a starter[/quote']

 

It was the Red Sox that tinkered with his mechanics in the first place. They recognized the mistake they made, sent him to winter ball and he just clicked from there. They never let him start again so we'll never know what he'd be as a starter after he corrected his flaws.

 

And he 4 pitches as a reliever. Fastball, sinker, slider, and change.

[SoxSport]

Totally different. Ells got Beltre'd.

QUOTE]

 

Great. Now you're talkin'.

[stonedtone]

It's an absolute that he's gone. We've been building on this fir 2 yrs. They won't pay him the $12M he'll get some where

[Rdsxmbnt]

Totally different. Ells got Beltre'd. Freak thing do occurred. It's like the saying; s*** happens.

 

Bard as a starter is an interesting idea. He wants to try it. Why not give him a chance? If it doesn't work, he goes back to being a reliever.

 

because he was absolutely horrendous as a starter in the minors and immediately dominated upon switching to relief

[snydersminipretzels]

Not sure the Red Sox should tie $13-$14 million for a closer, when they have Bard behind him. That money could be used on a more valuable player.

[Station 13]

Not sure the Red Sox should tie $13-$14 million for a closer' date=' when they have Bard behind him. That money could be used on a more valuable player.[/quote']

 

They are already paying him $12.5M this year.

 

If paps want more than that over 4 year I guessing he will be pitching for another team.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

I think it's pretty reasonable to expect he'll be looking for more than that over 3-4 years.

[Station 13]

I think it's pretty reasonable to expect he'll be looking for more than that over 3-4 years.

 

Of course he will. But $60M for a reliever? Really? Who'd pay that?

[SoxSport]

I don't think they'll pay a big contract for a closer like Pap.Not when they have Bard in waiting.

Then all they need is a cheaper setup guy.

 

Financially, it doesn't make sense to keep Pap.

Closers don't last, anyways. Pap is probably on the usual contract year high.

[redsoxrules]

Of course he will. But $60M for a reliever? Really? Who'd pay that?

 

Yankee's

[stonedtone]

I don't want to do that. Too much money. We have other options. I love the way he's doing it this year, but it's a contract year. He didn't do this last year. Bring the young guy up full time. It's much easier when you know exactly what you have to do in the close.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Of course he will. But $60M for a reliever? Really? Who'd pay that?

 

I'm betting he gets 4/56 from some off the radar team and pitches two good years before crapping his pants and making the entire city he plays for sad and cranky.

[SoxSport]

Hey, Bard pitched two innings of mid-relief? today. Maybe they are "lengthening" him out to start.

Grooming Wheeler to set up?

[Dojji]

Albers and Aceves over Wheeler. Either one can pitch setup no problem.