Jonathan Papelbon, can we lock him up please?

[AtWork]

The Brewers, Cubs, Tigers, Angels, White Sox and possibly the Nationals could be interested, to name a few.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

There will be a market for Papelbon. The Dodgers, Cardinals and maybe a few other teams will have a need.

 

After the Soriano disaster I highly doubt the Yankees pay another big name reliever, as much as I'd like it.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Brewers have Axford. Angels have Walden. I think both of those teams are committed to those guys.

 

EDIT White Sox is a good call though

[a700hitter]

Whatever the market is, unless it is completely crazy, he should be signed by Boston.

[Dojji]

The Brewers

 

Axford.

 

Cubs,

 

Marmol

 

Tigers,

 

The one legitimate possibility, but they don't tend to buy the closer thing as a group, or at least haven't done so in the past. I see them going for a middle of the road guy like Rauch or Dotel and spending the big money on starting pitching or a corner OF.

 

Angels

 

Walden

 

, White Sox and possibly the Nationals could be interested

 

Papelbon will not sign with a rebuilding team.

 

, to name a few.

 

Name more.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Whatever the market is' date=' unless it is completely crazy, he should be signed by Boston.[/quote']

 

I don't know. Papelbon hasn't been 100% consistent from year to year and relievers flame out all the time. You really think the FO should shell out 15 mil if we have other in-house cost controlled options who can get the job done? I think there is a good chance he will be back, but if the Sox choose to re-sign Ortiz and stash a little money to potentially take on some salary at next years deadline, I'll understand it. If we can't get production from Reddick/Kalish in RF or if we need to stabilize the rotation I think those needs should be prioritized over the bullpen.

[a700hitter]

I don't know. Papelbon hasn't been 100% consistent from year to year

Maybe not 100%, but very very consistent.

[AtWork]

Name more.

 

Dodgers, Rockies, Blue Jays.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

 

 

 

Papelbon will not sign with a rebuilding team.

 

 

What makes you say that? Do you have some unique insight as to what Papelbon is looking for on the FA market? Since he took the job as closer he's talked not only of his desire to go year to year and make top dollar, but also of his responsibility to other closers to set the market. Two things matter to Papelbon when it comes to finding a new team: the 1st and the 15th. As in the days of the month on which will be paid. Who ever cuts the biggest check will get him, that simple. The Dodgers, Cardinals, White Sox, Nats, and possibly Phillies or Diamondbacks will be in the market.

 

What makes you think the Sox will be his only suitor? I think he's probably less valuable to the Red Sox than a number of other teams out there, although, like I've said, it's plenty likely he re-signs with the Sox.

[Dojji]

I don't know. Papelbon hasn't been 100% consistent from year to year

 

Because goodess knows, that's the standard whereby any baseball player, regardless of position, should be judged.

 

and relievers flame out all the time.

 

Rarely for no reason. Papelbon is fully healthy, in his prime, and has command of all the stuff he ever had. This is not an Eric Gagne situation.

 

You really think the FO should shell out 15 mil if we have other in-house cost controlled options who can get the job done?

 

Who might that be? Since it's clearly not Dan Bard, who has well documented head issues thaqt ended his career as a starter in 06, and has trouble pitching on the road, I'm curious whether you think we'll promote Albers or Aceves. Not to mention, Dan Bard's command is... well, it's just not not Papelbon's command. He has gotten much better there over the last little while but...

 

I think there is a good chance he will be back, but if the Sox choose to re-sign Ortiz and stash a little money to potentially take on some salary at next years deadline, I'll understand it. If we can't get production from Reddick/Kalish in RF or if we need to stabilize the rotation I think those needs should be prioritized over the bullpen.

 

Stabilize the rotation? As things stand we have 6 contracts going into the end of this year for 5 rotation spots. It's been an absolute money sink. IF anything we should be hoping to clear some salary away from the rotation over the next few years.

 

This isn't the Rays. We can pay for a guy who's playing at a level that will be troublesome to quickly replace, and Papelbon easily fits that description.

[Dojji]

Dodgers' date=' [/quote']

 

In serious financial trouble and their ownership is in limbo. Besides even outside Javy Guerra, their current closer, I don't think they're hurting for true power relief.

 

Rockies, Blue Jays.

 

Noncontenders, and the Rockies as a matter of policy don't even sign high end FA's.

 

You are seriously reaching here.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Maybe not 100%' date=' but very very consistent.[/quote']

 

Pap's yearly BB/9 #'s since '06: 1.7, 2.3, 1.0, 3.2, 3.8, 1.4

 

WHIP: 0.78, 0.77, 0.95, 1.15, 1.28, 0.99

 

BABIP: .226, .216, .300, .280, .296, .314

 

Point? I think he's been kind of inconsistent with his command and delivery over the years. The WHIP and BB/9 numbers support that. BABIP is naturally going to fluctuate from year to year and theres not a whole heck of a lot a pitcher can do to control that except punch batters out - which Pap does very consistently. But even he can't keep that BABIP number from floating up toward .300 at times. When he isn't walked hitters, as in '08 a .300 BABIP hurts less, but even this year where his BABIP is pretty unlucky and his command has been great, you can see it shows up in his ERA when more hits drop in. Given that his command has been spotty, I wouldn't wince too much at a 3/45 contract, but I certainly wouldn't say we should let him name his price. He's not irreplaceable. If he is command is going to be an on and off thing from year to year, it's only a matter of time before the wheels come off, not unlike 2010. That year was not a fluke.

[a700hitter]

Pap's yearly BB/9 #'s since '06: 1.7, 2.3, 1.0, 3.2, 3.8, 1.4

 

WHIP: 0.78, 0.77, 0.95, 1.15, 1.28, 0.99

 

BABIP: .226, .216, .300, .280, .296, .314

 

Point? I think he's been kind of inconsistent with his command and delivery over the years. The WHIP and BB/9 numbers support that. BABIP is naturally going to fluctuate from year to year and theres not a whole heck of a lot a pitcher can do to control that except punch batters out - which Pap does very consistently. But even he can't keep that BABIP number from floating up toward .300 at times. When he isn't walked hitters, as in '08 a .300 BABIP hurts less, but even this year where his BABIP is pretty unlucky and his command has been great, you can see it shows up in his ERA when more hits drop in. Given that his command has been spotty, I wouldn't wince too much at a 3/45 contract, but I certainly wouldn't say we should let him name his price. He's not irreplaceable. If he is command is going to be an on and off thing from year to year, it's only a matter of time before the wheels come off, not unlike 2010. That year was not a fluke.

No one said to let him name his own price. The market will dictate what he gets.

[Spudboy]

Whatever the market is' date=' unless it is completely crazy, he should be signed by Boston.[/quote']

 

I agree. I also agree with Doc. There will be a market and the Sox will have to be competitive. However, I don't think he will command 3/45. And truthfully, he is not worth it.

In my OPINION.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Because goodess knows, that's the standard whereby any baseball player, regardless of position, should be judged.

 

Glad we agree.

 

Rarely for no reason. Papelbon is fully healthy, in his prime, and has command of all the stuff he ever had. This is not an Eric Gagne situation.

 

Actually, Gagne is the perfect example of why it's risky to hand out big money to relievers. Gagne was an excellent pitcher, with similarly great stuff and probably a deeper repertoire. Before coming to the Sox he was pitching brilliantly. A 213 ERA+ and a ~1.00 WHIP in a better hitters park in the same league. The Sox paid a hefty price in terms of talent to acquire him and his WHIP ballooned to ~1.80 and he was horrendous. Relievers are sketchy at best.

 

Who might that be? Since it's clearly not Dan Bard, who has well documented head issues thaqt ended his career as a starter in 06, and has trouble pitching on the road, I'm curious whether you think we'll promote Albers or Aceves. Not to mention, Dan Bard's command is... well, it's just not not Papelbon's command. He has gotten much better there over the last little while but...

 

Ok, so this doesn't get too tense, let's play a fun game. I'm honestly not trying to have a big pissing contest here or whatever. Anyways, on to the game. Name the players(both are relievers):

 

Player A: G: 69 71 IP 1.90 ERA 9.2 K/9

 

Player B: G: 58 59 IP 2.32 ERA 9.0 K/9

 

Those two guys are my top choice for closer if it isn't Papelbon. Get back to me on that or let me know and I'll give in and tell ya my mystery man crushes

 

But about Aceves and Albers, I think if Albers can sustain his newfound K-rate there isn't much of an argument against bringing him back if the price is right. I like him right where he is as far as his role is concerned. I think Aceves could be used more consistently as a set up guy, but as far as promoting either to closer ehhh no thanks.

 

Also, I don't think Dan Bard was moved out of the starter role because of any reason other than his stuff played better out of the pen. Since he left UNC for the Sox it was talked about by many scouts how a change to the 'pen would do his professional career a lot of good. His reputation as a "head case" was earned when he struggled in the minors a little bit in save situations, but considering the pressure of pitching in Boston and how well he's done here in the majors, I think that's been somewhat dispelled. Learning to pitch in a new role is a bit of an adjustment at any level, I think people were a bit premature in labeling him a head case after blowing a few minor league saves. I think he's shaken any notion of mental midgetry by now.

 

Trying to pretend we know what is going on in a players head by looking at on field results is tricky territory. Ask Clay Buchholz. He was a huge head case in '08, right? Now? Not so much.

 

 

 

Stabilize the rotation? As things stand we have 6 contracts going into the end of this year for 5 rotation spots. It's been an absolute money sink. IF anything we should be hoping to clear some salary away from the rotation over the next few years.

 

This isn't the Rays. We can pay for a guy who's playing at a level that will be troublesome to quickly replace, and Papelbon easily fits that description.

 

Well, the way I see it, we've got four guys penciled into the rotation for next year: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and Lackey. We could very well end up re-signing Bedard, which wouldn't get in the way of any other signing most likely, but whether or not that happens depends on how healthy Bedard is. I don't think the Red Sox will go into next year with Wakefield penciled into a rotation spot and Matsuzaka will likely not be ready to pick up a ball until July at the earliest. He's going to be on the same time table as Johan was this year, and he still isn't close to pitching. That's a rehab assignment that will take some time. He may have seen his last days as a Red Sox.

 

And as you said, this isn't the Rays, we can afford to add to the team where ever there is a need in most cases. I count four dependable pitchers who can be counted on to fill a rotation slot next year. We will find a fifth somewhere. It may be Bedard if he can prove healthy and be signed for a reasonable price. I'm betting that one way or another, they will shell out a least a little dough to plug the 5th spot.

 

I agree we can afford Pap and he may be back, I'm just saying, there will be a market for him outside of the Sox and if we lose out, there are options.

[Emmz]

Pap's yearly BB/9 #'s since '06: 1.7, 2.3, 1.0, 3.2, 3.8, 1.4

 

WHIP: 0.78, 0.77, 0.95, 1.15, 1.28, 0.99

 

BABIP: .226, .216, .300, .280, .296, .314

 

Point? I think he's been kind of inconsistent with his command and delivery over the years. The WHIP and BB/9 numbers support that. BABIP is naturally going to fluctuate from year to year and theres not a whole heck of a lot a pitcher can do to control that except punch batters out - which Pap does very consistently. But even he can't keep that BABIP number from floating up toward .300 at times. When he isn't walked hitters, as in '08 a .300 BABIP hurts less, but even this year where his BABIP is pretty unlucky and his command has been great, you can see it shows up in his ERA when more hits drop in. Given that his command has been spotty, I wouldn't wince too much at a 3/45 contract, but I certainly wouldn't say we should let him name his price. He's not irreplaceable. If he is command is going to be an on and off thing from year to year, it's only a matter of time before the wheels come off, not unlike 2010. That year was not a fluke.

 

His walk pct. has been above league averages for almost every year of his career, if walks is your way of substantiating that he has control issues.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

I agree. I also agree with Doc. There will be a market and the Sox will have to be competitive. However, I don't think he will command 3/45. And truthfully, he is not worth it.

In my OPINION.

 

Yeah, I agree he shouldn't command 3/45 but unfortunately in a world where Werth got as much as he did and K-rod got as much as he did and so on and so forth annnnnnyyything can and probably will happen. lol

[AtWork]

In serious financial trouble and their ownership is in limbo. Besides even outside Javy Guerra' date=' their current closer, I don't think they're hurting for true power relief.

 

 

 

Noncontenders, and the Rockies as a matter of policy don't even sign high end FA's.

 

You are seriously reaching here.

 

You asked me to name more teams that could be interested, so I did. I didn't realize it was a challenge. No matter, I think we've established that there are teams that will be interested and he's going to be rather expensive to re-sign. There's really no point in arguing over whether the Tigers are "elite closer types".

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

His walk pct. has been above league averages for almost every year of his career' date=' if walks is your way of substantiating that he has control issues.[/quote']

 

It's a decent way, but only one way to look at how well somebody controls the ball. I find it hard to believe a 1-something or even 2-something BB/9 could be above league average although, I probably have close to no idea what league average is. I'd guess somewhere in the high 2's or low 3's. For a reliever, especially a closer, probably a bit less.

[Dojji]

You asked me to name more teams that could be interested' date=' so I did. I didn't realize it was a challenge. No matter, I think we've established that there are teams that will be interested and he's going to be rather expensive to re-sign. There's really no point in arguing over whether the Tigers are "elite closer types".[/quote']

 

I think there is a point. The fact is that a lot of the teams that would normally be interested are nurturing their own rookie or sophomore "closers of the future" at the moment, and the market is going to be pretty heaby with the closer types those teams are letting go. I think the market at the moment is very soft indeed, and that should help us keep Papelbon unless one of the financially struggling teams, such as the Mets, decides to go full-bore after him.

 

Re: Papelbon signing on a noncontender. I won't say it's impossible, but what I read in his character is that this is a guy who wants to be on a winner. For one thing, winners by and large have more save opportunities, and he wants to be out there with the game on the line. This guy doesn't strike me as the true mercenary type, more a guy who's extremely competitive, and I don't think he'll put himself on a losing team just to maximize his revenue if he can sign for a winning team instead.

[jacksonianmarch]

Saying there wont be a market out there because there is no theoretical need is essentially creating a false sense of security for yourself. He's a closer who has been dominant and still throws top notch stuff. He's got a playoff resume that is excellent and closed out a world series. No closer on the market has that to his name. He's the biggest name amongst a fair amount of closers, but he's getting the biggest contract. I guarantee that. He'll get his 3 yrs, and he will make at least $40 mil over those three.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

I think there is a point. The fact is that a lot of the teams that would normally be interested are nurturing their own rookie or sophomore "closers of the future" at the moment, and the market is going to be pretty heaby with the closer types those teams are letting go. I think the market at the moment is very soft indeed, and that should help us keep Papelbon unless one of the financially struggling teams, such as the Mets, decides to go full-bore after him.

 

Re: Papelbon signing on a noncontender. I won't say it's impossible, but what I read in his character is that this is a guy who wants to be on a winner. For one thing, winners by and large have more save opportunities, and he wants to be out there with the game on the line. This guy doesn't strike me as the true mercenary type, more a guy who's extremely competitive, and I don't think he'll put himself on a losing team just to maximize his revenue if he can sign for a winning team instead.

 

Nope, you don't get to dodge my prior post.

 

 

Because goodess knows, that's the standard whereby any baseball player, regardless of position, should be judged.

 

Glad we agree.

 

Rarely for no reason. Papelbon is fully healthy, in his prime, and has command of all the stuff he ever had. This is not an Eric Gagne situation.

 

Actually, Gagne is the perfect example of why it's risky to hand out big money to relievers. Gagne was an excellent pitcher, with similarly great stuff and probably a deeper repertoire. Before coming to the Sox he was pitching brilliantly. A 213 ERA+ and a ~1.00 WHIP in a better hitters park in the same league. The Sox paid a hefty price in terms of talent to acquire him and his WHIP ballooned to ~1.80 and he was horrendous. Relievers are sketchy at best.

 

Who might that be? Since it's clearly not Dan Bard, who has well documented head issues thaqt ended his career as a starter in 06, and has trouble pitching on the road, I'm curious whether you think we'll promote Albers or Aceves. Not to mention, Dan Bard's command is... well, it's just not not Papelbon's command. He has gotten much better there over the last little while but...

 

Ok, so this doesn't get too tense, let's play a fun game. I'm honestly not trying to have a big pissing contest here or whatever. Anyways, on to the game. Name the players(both are relievers):

 

Player A: G: 69 71 IP 1.90 ERA 9.2 K/9

 

Player B: G: 58 59 IP 2.32 ERA 9.0 K/9

 

Those two guys are my top choice for closer if it isn't Papelbon. Get back to me on that or let me know and I'll give in and tell ya my mystery man crushes

 

But about Aceves and Albers, I think if Albers can sustain his newfound K-rate there isn't much of an argument against bringing him back if the price is right. I like him right where he is as far as his role is concerned. I think Aceves could be used more consistently as a set up guy, but as far as promoting either to closer ehhh no thanks.

 

Also, I don't think Dan Bard was moved out of the starter role because of any reason other than his stuff played better out of the pen. Since he left UNC for the Sox it was talked about by many scouts how a change to the 'pen would do his professional career a lot of good. His reputation as a "head case" was earned when he struggled in the minors a little bit in save situations, but considering the pressure of pitching in Boston and how well he's done here in the majors, I think that's been somewhat dispelled. Learning to pitch in a new role is a bit of an adjustment at any level, I think people were a bit premature in labeling him a head case after blowing a few minor league saves. I think he's shaken any notion of mental midgetry by now.

 

Trying to pretend we know what is going on in a players head by looking at on field results is tricky territory. Ask Clay Buchholz. He was a huge head case in '08, right? Now? Not so much.

 

 

 

Stabilize the rotation? As things stand we have 6 contracts going into the end of this year for 5 rotation spots. It's been an absolute money sink. IF anything we should be hoping to clear some salary away from the rotation over the next few years.

 

This isn't the Rays. We can pay for a guy who's playing at a level that will be troublesome to quickly replace, and Papelbon easily fits that description.

 

Well, the way I see it, we've got four guys penciled into the rotation for next year: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and Lackey. We could very well end up re-signing Bedard, which wouldn't get in the way of any other signing most likely, but whether or not that happens depends on how healthy Bedard is. I don't think the Red Sox will go into next year with Wakefield penciled into a rotation spot and Matsuzaka will likely not be ready to pick up a ball until July at the earliest. He's going to be on the same time table as Johan was this year, and he still isn't close to pitching. That's a rehab assignment that will take some time. He may have seen his last days as a Red Sox.

 

And as you said, this isn't the Rays, we can afford to add to the team where ever there is a need in most cases. I count four dependable pitchers who can be counted on to fill a rotation slot next year. We will find a fifth somewhere. It may be Bedard if he can prove healthy and be signed for a reasonable price. I'm betting that one way or another, they will shell out a least a little dough to plug the 5th spot.

 

I agree we can afford Pap and he may be back, I'm just saying, there will be a market for him outside of the Sox and if we lose out, there are options.

[a700hitter]

I agree we can afford Pap and he may be back, I'm just saying, there will be a market for him outside of the Sox and if we lose out, there are options.

If the Sox can afford him, why would they lose out if Papelbon doesn't want a change of scenery?

[a700hitter]

As for Bard, Peter Gammons keeps talking about him becoming a starter. If Gammons is saying it, someone in the organization has been thinking about it.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

If the Sox can afford him' date=' why would they lose out if Papelbon doesn't want a change of scenery?[/quote']

 

In theory, the Sox can afford what ever they want, but they've been known to set a value on a player and not spend past whatever that is. I don't know if Papelbon is a guy they would be willing to get into a bidding war for. It's all about how the market for him develops. I highly doubt at this point that they would turn Bard into a starter.

[a700hitter]

I highly doubt at this point that they would turn Bard into a starter.

But you have no knowledge of whether this is being seriously considered.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But you have no knowledge of whether this is being seriously considered.

 

I've heard Bard, multiple times, say that he would like to try out being a SP. I think his velocity would drop from 97-99 to around 95-97, which is still plenty of gas. I'm ok with the idea of having him start, the only problem is who takes his role? This is the same exact problem that Theo is facing in terms of whether or not to let Papelbon walk. I think that Bard has almost as much influence in that decision as Pap.

[a700hitter]

II don't know if Papelbon is a guy they would be willing to get into a bidding war for. It's all about how the market for him develops.

None of us knows what the FO will do, but we do know how important Papelbon has been to the success of this team over the last several seasons, that he is only 30 with no sign of arm trouble since 2006, and that he is the best closer in Sox history.

[a700hitter]

This thread carries the wrong name. "Can we lock him up?" Yes. Will they lock him up? None of us knows. Should they lock him up? That's what should be discussed. Matt Albers doesn't replace Jon Papelbon, not even in Albers wildest dreams.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

But you have no knowledge of whether this is being seriously considered.

 

lol. well if that's the qualifications for talking about a potential move the Sox might make I'm surprised this forum has posts at all.

 

I guess if we wanted to look at other starters they'd converted to relievers and look for one example where they've changed course and reverted the pitcher back to starting we could say it's possible. I could easily be blanking on an obvious example, but I can't think of any right now - unless you count Schilling's brief stint as closer before he went back to starting in '06.

 

Papelbon, Delcarmen, Bard, and possibly soon Weiland have all made the conversion from starter to reliever off the top of my head. I think theres more. They didn't turn any of those guys back. Doesn't mean they won't, just means there probably has to be a better reason than Dan Bard would like to try it.

 

But who knows whether or not they will, time will tell, my question is how much would it really benefit the Sox? Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and Lackey will be in the rotation next year. What if Bedard pitches a productive and healthy rest of the season. If he could be retained for a 1 or 2 year deal maybe with an option with a decent base salary + incentives, wouldn't you rather have a known commodity in the rotation instead of weakening the 'pen for an experiment?