The Cy Young Race

[AtWork]

With nearly 2/3rds of the season done, it's probably fair to start speculating on who might win the AL Cy Young. Here's how I would break down the race as it stands today.

 

1. Justin Verlander - Leads the AL in IP (165), strikeouts (162) and WHIP (0.88). He also ranks 3rd in ERA (2.62) and 2nd in wins (13). I doubt the voters will take this much into account, but Verlander also leads AL pitchers in WAR according to Baseball-Reference.

 

2. Jared Weaver - Leads the AL in ERA (1.81) and is second in WHIP (0.90) and wins (13).

 

3. Josh Beckett - Is second in the AL in ERA (2.07) and WHIP (0.90) but his win total and strikeout rate will probably prevent him from winning the award.

 

Honorable Mention

James Shields - Is 4th in the AL in IP, 2nd in strikeouts and 5th in ERA and WHIP placing him inside the top 5 in every major statistical category with the exception of wins.

 

CC Sabathia - Leads the AL in wins but is is 6th in ERA and 12th in WHIP. Is second in the AL in IP and strikeouts and according to fangraphs he leads the AL in WAR.

 

f*** the NL.

[iortiz]

The combination of ERA (60%), WHIP(30%) and W-L(10%) vs Rs support/game, should rule the award. Beckett has an outstanding season and he is definitely a contender, nobody saw this coming.

[Divinity]

How is a 3.1 WAR pitcher more deserving than a 5.2 WAR pitcher?

[BornToRun]

There are other stats besides WAR you know.

[Thunder]

Mv vote for the AL is between Beckett and Weaver. In the NL, it'll probably be someone on the Phillies.

[suns]

Verlander will win it

[AtWork]

How is a 3.1 WAR pitcher more deserving than a 5.2 WAR pitcher?

 

I didn't base the thread on who I thought should win, I based the thread on who will likely win and the Cy Young Award voters are not going to give the award to a pitcher based on WAR. Besides, according to Baseball-Reference Beckett has a 4.9 WAR to Sabathia's 4.5

[Divinity]

I didn't base the thread on who I thought should win' date=' I based the thread on who will likely win and the Cy Young Award voters are not going to give the award to a pitcher based on WAR. Besides, according to Baseball-Reference Beckett has a 4.9 WAR to Sabathia's 4.5[/quote']

 

It seemed like you're 1,2,3 we're the front runners, I agree with your 1,2, but currently I think CC is in 3rd place.

 

Also just about every knowledgeable baseball fan knows Baseball-Reference's WAR formula is junk compared to Fangraphs, in which CC has a 5.2 WAR while Beckett is at 3.2

[AtWork]

It seemed like you're 1,2,3 we're the front runners, I agree with your 1,2, but currently I think CC is in 3rd place.

 

Also just about every knowledgeable baseball fan knows Baseball-Reference's WAR formula is junk compared to Fangraphs, in which CC has a 5.2 WAR while Beckett is at 3.2

 

The people who vote on the Cy Young Award are not going to vote a player who is 6th in ERA and 12th in WHIP ahead of a player who is 2nd in both those categories.

 

Do you have a valid reason for why B-R's WAR forula is junk or is that just a throw away comment?

[Divinity]

Perhaps junk wasn't the right word, but for the most part BR's WAR is better to look at for pitchers' careers, while Fangraphs' is better for smaller sample sizes.

[AtWork]

Perhaps junk wasn't the right word' date=' but for the most part BR's WAR is better to look at for pitchers' careers, while Fangraphs' is better for smaller sample sizes.[/quote']

 

That's what one of the first google results says. I wouldn't consider the forum it came from to be the best of sources though. Do you have a thought of your own that you didn't just google as to why B-R's WAR calculation is somehow inferior?

[Palodios]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung

[AtWork]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung

 

Pretty cool tool, I think they overvalue wins though considering the last Cy Young award winner.

 

EDIT: I take it back, it definitely overvalues wins and is more or less useless. They picked Felix to finish 6th last year behind Rafael Soriano.

[Emmz]

Perhaps junk wasn't the right word' date=' but for the most part BR's WAR is better to look at for pitchers' careers, while Fangraphs' is better for smaller sample sizes.[/quote']

 

Can you come up with some sort of formula, or differentiate between the two, because I think you just sort of pulled that one out of the air.

[AtWork]

Can you come up with some sort of formula' date=' or differentiate between the two, because I think you just sort of pulled that one out of the air.[/quote']

 

Thin air? You're giving him too much credit. I'm pretty sure he pulled it right out of the first google result which stated, and I quote:

 

BR's WAR is better to look at for pitchers' careers, while Fangraphs' is better for smaller sample sizes.

 

It was an NFL forum by the way.

 

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=11877702

[Emmz]

Bingo, I saw this, as soon as I saw the backpedaling I knew he used was using Google. I just wanted to see how he would respond to me simply thinking he "pulled it out of the air".

[Palodios]

Pretty cool tool, I think they overvalue wins though considering the last Cy Young award winner.

 

EDIT: I take it back, it definitely overvalues wins and is more or less useless. They picked Felix to finish 6th last year behind Rafael Soriano.

 

Until 2009, it was incredibly accurate. Now wins are becoming more or less irrelevant in the CY Young race. This year, it is very very good, with the top 4 being the correct top 4, Beckett, Weaver, Verlander, CC.

[AtWork]

Bingo' date=' I saw this, as soon as I saw the backpedaling I knew he used was using Google. I just wanted to see how he would respond to me simply thinking he "pulled it out of the air".[/quote']

 

Him "pulling it out of thin air" would require independent thought. He simply stole it off an NFL forum

[yankees228]

All of this is pretty funny lol. I'd at least like to see Divinity respond.

[Emmz]

Remember when Johan Santana completely dominated, but finished with 16 wins, so he lost the Cy Young to I think Bartolo Colon just because he had 20 wins pretty much? Or when Randy Johnson did that, except his record was like 13-13 or something, even though he led the league in almost everything else? I think that was that D-Backs team that lost 110 games, too.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

All of this is pretty funny lol. I'd at least like to see Divinity respond.

 

Seconded.

[Emmz]

Him "pulling it out of thin air" would require independent thought. He simply stole it off an NFL forum

 

I wasn't saying he actually 'pulled it out of the air'. I was setting the stage for him to elaborate, which I think would have been amusing.

[AtWork]

I think the Cy Young Award voters stopped voting based on win totals in 2009 when they picked Greinke (16-8) over Felix (19-5). Last year they seemed to confirm this by picking Felix (13-12).

[AtWork]

I wasn't saying he actually 'pulled it out of the air'. I was setting the stage for him to elaborate' date=' which I think would have been amusing.[/quote']

 

My bad

 

Hopefully his response to me posting his NFL forum source will be equally amusing.

[Emmz]

All of this is pretty funny lol. I'd at least like to see Divinity respond.

 

He won't now, because his argument has been exposed as, well, not even being the product of his own brainpower. I was baiting further response, sort of a "dig your own grave" before you bring out the evidence that he was just blowing smoke up everyone's ass.

[Emmz]

My bad

 

Hopefully his response to me posting his NFL forum source will be equally amusing.

 

I don't really care, would have been funny that's all.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

You bullies you made him go offline :thumbdown

[Palodios]

Until 2009' date=' it was incredibly accurate. Now wins are becoming more or less irrelevant in the CY Young race. This year, it is very very good, with the top 4 being the correct top 4, Beckett, Weaver, Verlander, CC.[/quote']

 

I think the Cy Young Award voters stopped voting based on win totals in 2009 when they picked Greinke (16-8) over Felix (19-5). Last year they seemed to confirm this by picking Felix (13-12).

 

I was considering Lincecum's 15-7 in 2009 as well. Things have definitely shifted the last two years.

[Cocos Disciples]

Oh wow that was yankeessuck013 all over again.

[Divinity]

Can you come up with some sort of formula' date=' or differentiate between the two, because I think you just sort of pulled that one out of the air.[/quote']

 

Certainly darling,

 

WAR is available in two places: FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (rWAR). Both statistics use the same framework, but are calculated slightly differently and therefore sometimes show different results.

 

1. Pitcher Value: fWAR relies totally on FIP, making it a defense-independent metric, while rWAR adds in defensive runs saved as well.

 

2. Calculating Defense: Each system uses a different defensive metric. fWAR uses UZR, while rWAR uses TotalZone. UZR is more accurate but is only available from 2002 onward, while TotalZone values can be calculated for any player in baseball history.

 

3. Baserunning: rWAR includes this, while fWAR doesn’t.