2011 Red Sox Predictions

[SoxFanForsyth]

Go ahead and start making your predictions for the Sox in 2011. Whether it be individual stats, standings, or awards, we'll talk about it in here.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Beat the s*** out of the Yankees(Jacko won't like me after this season I bet you that)

 

Make the playoffs.

[Palodios]

Lowrie will be one of the top shortstops in the American League:D

 

 

Or... stay on the DL all season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm gonna get greedy.

 

Ellsbury hits .297/.356/.420, 9 HR, 63 RBI, 98 Runs Scored, 58 SB

Pedroia hits .305/.378/.470, 18 HR, 86 RBI, 108 Runs Scored

Crawford hits .301/.347/.463, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 114 Runs Scored, 49 SB.

Gonzo hits .338/.418/.612, 46 HR, 138 RBI, 112 Runs Scored

Youk hits .317/.410/.568, 31 HR, 118 RBI, 98 Runs Scored

Ortiz hits .263/.368/.531, 32 HR, 104 RBI, 84 Runs Scored

Drew hits .276/.388/.518, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 79 Runs Scored

Salty hits .267/.338/.468, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 52 Runs Scored

Lowrie hits .282/.361/.498, 19 HR, 63 RBI, 72 Runs Scored.

 

Lester - 20-8, 3.24 ERA

Buchholz - 17-10, 3.42 ERA

Beckett - 16-9, 3.85 ERA

Lackey - 15-7, 3.96 ERA

DiceK - 14-6, 4.14 ERA

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

46 HR for A-Gon? I hope your right.

[Dipre]

19 HR's for Lowrie? And more HR's for Lowrie than for Drew?

 

Wow.

[Dipre]

Fangraphs predictions for the 2011 Red Sox using the Bill James formula:

 

Hitting:

 

1) Jacoby Ellsbury, CF: .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG%, 8 HR, 32 2B, 6 3B, 59 SB, 58 RBI, 102 RS, 157 games played.

 

2) Carl Crawford, LF: .300 BA, .350 OBP, 453 SLG%,14 HR, 27 2B, 9 3B, 51 SB, 71 RBI, 93 RS, 149 games played.

 

3) Dustin Pedroia, 2B: .297 BA, .372 OBP, 462 SLG%, 17 HR, 51 2B, 1 3B, 16 SB, 77 RBI, 108 RS, 158 games played.

 

4) Adrian Gonzales, 1B: .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG%, 33 HR, 35 2B, 1 3B, 2 SB, 102 RBI, 92 RS, 161 games played.

 

5) Kevin Youkilis, 3B: .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG%, 25 HR, 41 2B, 2 3B, 5 SB, 95 RBI, 103 R, 151 games played.

 

6) David Ortiz, DH: .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG%, 33 HR, 39 2B, 1 3B, 0 SB, 112 RBI, 91 RS, 151 games played.

 

7) Jed Lowrie, SS: .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG%, 17 HR, 38 2B, 3 3B, 4 SB, 75 RBI, 75 RS, 144 games played.

 

8) JD Drew, RF: .263 BA, .370 OBP ,.460 SLG%, 22 HR, 24 2B, 2 3B, 3 SB, 77 RBI, 86 RS, 145 games played.

 

9) Jarrod "Salty" Saltalamacchia, C: .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG%, 12 HR, 20 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB 43 RBI, 45 R, 110 games played.

[Will617]

Fangraphs predictions for the 2011 Red Sox using the Bill James formula:

 

Hitting:

 

1) Jacoby Ellsbury, CF: .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG%, 8 HR, 32 2B, 6 3B, 59 SB, 58 RBI, 102 RS, 157 games played.

 

2) Carl Crawford, LF: .300 BA, .350 OBP, 453 SLG%,14 HR, 27 2B, 9 3B, 51 SB, 71 RBI, 93 RS, 149 games played.

 

3) Dustin Pedroia, 2B: .297 BA, .372 OBP, 462 SLG%, 17 HR, 51 2B, 1 3B, 16 SB, 77 RBI, 108 RS, 158 games played.

 

4) Adrian Gonzales, 1B: .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG%, 33 HR, 35 2B, 1 3B, 2 SB, 102 RBI, 92 RS, 161 games played.

 

5) Kevin Youkilis, 3B: .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG%, 25 HR, 41 2B, 2 3B, 5 SB, 95 RBI, 103 R, 151 games played.

 

6) David Ortiz, DH: .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG%, 33 HR, 39 2B, 1 3B, 0 SB, 112 RBI, 91 RS, 151 games played.

 

7) Jed Lowrie, SS: .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG%, 17 HR, 38 2B, 3 3B, 4 SB, 75 RBI, 75 RS, 144 games played.

 

8) JD Drew, RF: .263 BA, .370 OBP ,.460 SLG%, 22 HR, 24 2B, 2 3B, 3 SB, 77 RBI, 86 RS, 145 games played.

 

9) Jarrod "Salty" Saltalamacchia, C: .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG%, 12 HR, 20 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB 43 RBI, 45 R, 110 games played.

 

Do these take into account park factors? A-Gon really should be hitting more doubles than that. What I mean is A-Gon's numbers specifically (well, Crawford's as well, but I'm not as curious about those)

[Keeper]

The Sox will trade for another catcher before the deadline.

 

Pedroia will have a 20/20 season.

 

Jenks will have a few massive blowups and will not be popular with the fans.

 

Bard will be the closer in the postseason.

[italstallianion]

I don't see how JD Drew comes close to playing 145 games in a season this year.

[BSN07]

Agon- .300/.400/.570-.600, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 40 2B

Pedroia- .310/.375/.470, 20 HR,85 RBI, 50 2B

Scutaro- .265/.335/.400, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 35 2B

Youkilis- .290/.390/.560, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 40 2B

Crawford .285/.360/.500 20 HR, 90 RBI, 40 2B, 40 steals

Ellsbury- .295/.360/ 12 HR, 70 RBI, 35 2B, 50 steals

Drew- .275/.390/.520 18 HR, 80 RBI, 30 2B

Ortiz- .260/.360/.540 35 HR, 95 RBI, 32 2B

Salty- .260/.330/.400 10 HR, 60 RBI, 20 2B(100-110 games)

Tek- .250/.330/.410 10 HR, 40 RBI, 15 2B

Lowrie- .280/.375/.520 12 HR, 40 RBI, 20 2B

Cameron- .250/.330/.460 15 HR, 20 2B

 

Lester- 20-9 2.95 ERA 210 IP 230 K 75 BB

Buccholz- 17-6 3.15 ERA 190 IP 140 K 60 BB

Beckett- 16-8 3.75 ERA 210 IP 200K 60 BB

Lackey- 15-10 4.50 ERA 200 IP 145K 50 BB

Dice-K 15-7 4.70 ERA 180 IP 140 K 85 BB

[Dipre]

Pitching:

 

Starters:

 

Jon Lester: 3.53 ERA, 204.0 IP, 195 K, 1.27 WHIP, 32 GS.

 

Clay Bucholz: 3.54 ERA, 193 IP, 168 K, 1.28 WHIP, 29 GS.

 

Josh Beckett: 3.80 ERA, 168 IP, 155 K, 1.27 WHIP, 26 GS.

 

John Lackey: 3.89 ERA, 227.0 IP, 179 K, 1.31 WHIP, 33 GS.

 

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 3.85 ERA, 173 IP, 158 K, 1.34 WHIP, 27 GS.

 

Bullpen:

 

Tim Wakefield: 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.31 WHIP.

 

Scott Atchison: 64 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.

 

Felix Doubront: (Not available)

 

Dan Wheeler: 47 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP.

 

Bobby Jenks: 49 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP.

 

Dan Bard: 76 IP, 2.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP.

 

Jon Papelbon: 69 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.

[SoxFanForsyth]

19 HR's for Lowrie? And more HR's for Lowrie than for Drew?

 

Wow.

 

I am going to go ahead and say that Lowrie will play more games than Drew. Thats why I think he'll put up more bombs. I have faith in the kid.

[Dojji]

Team Leaders:

 

Games Played:Gonzalez (160)

Hits: Pedroia (190)

Runs: Crawford (110)

Stolen Bases: Ellsbury (50)

Doubles: Youkilis (45)

Triples: Crawford (12)

Homers: Gonzalez (38)

RBI: Gonzalez (125)

Strikeouts: Ortiz (150)

Walks: Gonzalez (100)

 

SP ERA: Buchholz (3.50)

Wins: Lester (18)

Losses: Beckett (12)

IP: Lester (240)

Strikeouts: Lester (215)

Walks: Matsuzaka (100)

 

Papelbon: 2.30 ERA (42/45 SVO), 10 K/9, 4 k/bb

Jenks: 3.10 ERA, 7 k/9, 7 k/9, 2 k/bb

Wheeler: 3.25 ERA, 8 k/9, 2.5k/bb

Bard: 3.95 ERA, 8 k/9, 1.125 k/bb

Doubront: 4.00 ERA, , 6.5 k/9, 2.5k/bb

Atchison: 4.20 ERA, 5 k/9, 1.5k/bb

Wakefield: 7.50 ERA, 3 k/9, .5k/bb

Weiland: 4.50 ERA, 6 k/91.5 k/bb

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I was gonna do Dojji's post but with YOTN's your mom shtick, but it probably wouldn't be funny a second time.

[Palodios]

I don't see A-gon playing as many games as people have been predicting. 160 games after a long recovery process on the shoulder surgery? I'm not saying he'll be in bad shape, but he's no Cal Ripken.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't see A-gon playing as many games as people have been predicting. 160 games after a long recovery process on the shoulder surgery? I'm not saying he'll be in bad shape' date=' but he's no Cal Ripken.[/quote']

 

He played 161 with a torn labrum last year. I don't see why he can't repeat that with it repaired this year.

[Dojji]

Youkilis might be a mitigating factor, if Adgon's hurt and they can slide another guy in to play 3B he might sit, but I don't think it's gonna happen as long as he's able to stand up and swing a bat.

[mvp 78]

162-0

Get swept in the playoffs

[Keeper]

Team Leaders:

 

Games Played: Gonzalez (157)

Hits: Pedroia (188)

Runs: Crawford (116)

Stolen Bases: Ellsbury (58)

Doubles: Pedroia (48)

Triples: Crawford (10)

Homers: Gonzalez (42)

RBI: Gonzalez (135)

BA: Crawford (.310)

OBP: Youkilis (.404)

SLG: Gonzalez (.580)

OPS: Gonzalez (.965)

 

SP ERA: Lester (3.14)

WHIP: Lester 1.196

Wins: Lester (21)

IP: Lackey (216)

Strikeouts: Lester (228)

[Dipre]

I am going to go ahead and say that Lowrie will play more games than Drew. Thats why I think he'll put up more bombs. I have faith in the kid.

 

Faith and realistic expectations don't have to be mutually exclusive. Jed won't crack 18, Drew will play at least 130 games and will hit at least 22 jacks, and i'm willing to make a bet about it right now.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Wait Red Sox get sweeped or we sweep the opponent? That'd make no sense to go 162-0 then get swept in the playoffs. Even if it is sarcasm.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Wrong thread lol.

[EXman369]

He is saying the sox will get swept

[SoxFanForsyth]

Faith and realistic expectations don't have to be mutually exclusive. Jed won't crack 18' date=' Drew will play at least 130 games and will hit at least 22 jacks, and i'm willing to make a bet about it right now.[/quote']

 

Not at all. But Lowrie hit 9 bombs last year in 55 games and 171 AB's. That's on pace to hit 18 bombs in 342 AB's.

 

I think Lowrie will get somewhere in the 450-500 AB's this year, so is it really that unbelievable to think that he'll replicate his success from 2010? He was hitting 1 HR every 19 AB's last year. Over a course of 450 AB's, that gives him roughly 23-24 HR.

 

He's only been around for 3 years, is it really that hard to believe that he could be hitting his prime at the age of 27?

 

Bill James agrees with me.

[SoxFanForsyth]

As far as JD Drew goes, he's going to get platooned against most lefties, especially the tough ones since Cam has been so successful in the past vs LHP.

 

Think about it.

 

Vs RHP, you start Drew, who has a career line vs RHP of:

 

.289/.397/.524/.921

 

Vs. LHP, you start Cam, who has a career line vs LHP of:

 

.269/.372/.494/.866

 

Not to mention his 2010 OPS vs LHP was 1.128 and his 2009 OPS vs LHP was .954.

 

So you're getting, more than likely, a RF with an OPS of over .900.

 

To put that into perspective, Adrian Beltre last year had an OPS of .919, Robinson Cano had an OPS of .914, Jayson Werth had an OPS of .921.

 

Platooning Drew and Cam, at this point in their career, with both of them getting older and constantly struggling with injuries, provides the Sox with outstanding defensive RF, and outstanding offensive RF.

 

But, Drew will only get in about 120-130 games, and that includes PH in the later innings.

[EXman369]

My only question is how do you see Lowrie getting as many at bats, i dont believe he will take over for sucatro that early in the season

[Dipre]

Not at all. But Lowrie hit 9 bombs last year in 55 games and 171 AB's. That's on pace to hit 18 bombs in 342 AB's.

 

I think Lowrie will get somewhere in the 450-500 AB's this year, so is it really that unbelievable to think that he'll replicate his success from 2010? He was hitting 1 HR every 19 AB's last year. Over a course of 450 AB's, that gives him roughly 23-24 HR.

 

He's only been around for 3 years, is it really that hard to believe that he could be hitting his prime at the age of 27?

 

Bill James agrees with me.

 

Bill James' projection says 17 HR's in 144 games (the mark i mentioned), and 22 for Drew in 139 games. Who does Bill James agree with again?

 

Read my post again, and notice how i didn't mention anything about the number of games played, which none of us can project anyway, and are realistically likely to be less than that total, and also because his power surge form last season is very much out of line with his career numbers, and was fueled by an 11.4 HR/FB%, when his career marks (including minors) is 6.8% and even worse, as part of a minuscule sample size. I don't get it, he's an OBP guy, why insist on pimping power that not only isn't there, but is not all that important? For the position of the lineup he's going to be hitting in, OBP is much better than a couple of homeruns anyway.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I see Lowrie taking the SS job during Spring Training.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bill James' projection says 17 HR's in 144 games (the mark i mentioned), and 22 for Drew in 139 games. Who does Bill James agree with again?

 

Read my post again, and notice how i didn't mention anything about the number of games played, which none of us can project anyway, and are realistically likely to be less than that total, and also because his power surge form last season is very much out of line with his career numbers, and was fueled by an 11.4 HR/FB%, when his career marks (including minors) is 6.8% and even worse, as part of a minuscule sample size. I don't get it, he's an OBP guy, why insist on pimping power that not only isn't there, but is not all that important? For the position of the lineup he's going to be hitting in, OBP is much better than a couple of homeruns anyway.

 

The way I read your post, it sounded more like you were objecting to Lowrie hitting 18 bombs than him hitting more than Drew.