Will Crawford Be the Worst Signing of the New Decade?

[LooseyGoosey]

Alright, I'm going to be the big nay-sayer ... but here goes ...

 

Sabermetric gurus, I challenge you to prove his worth (beyond defense, which is an unproven commodity ... look at the Mariners last year and their stellar defensive strategy)

 

A recent YAHOO article discussed the lofty spending of owners since 2006 and it listed 10 players over $100 million (and I'll include Manny Ramirez as #11 since some compare Crawford's signing to Manny's)

 

List: Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Howard, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Matt Holliday, Jason Werth, Joe Mauer, A Gonzalez (expected), Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, Crawford

 

Certainly are some lemons in the bunch? Possibly none so sour as Crawford???

 

1. Ranking On-Base-Percentage ... Crawford is 10 out of 11 (only behind dismal Alfonso Soriano, who had SLG and OPS to make up for it) ... Crawford's 0.337 average OBP trails an average OBP of 0.371 in the other 10 ... meaning that all the others get on base 20 times MORE in a given season than Crawford ... *** all those stolen bases aren't so sexy when you're not on base as much!

 

2. Ranking SLG % ... Crawford is 11 out of 11 at 0.444 ... 9 of the 11 have NEVER had a single full season with a SLG below Crawford's average!!!

 

3. Ranking OPS ... Crawford is 11 out of 11 at 0.781 ... NONE of the other 10 is even below the 0.800 line!!!

 

4. Plate Discipline for Base-on-Balls ... Crawford is 11 out of 11 ... the guy NEVER walks!!! He averages 1 walk every 17 at-bats ... the other 10 average 1 walk every 8 at-bats!!! ...

 

5. Debating the Value of Stolen Bases ... the true argument for Crawford lies in his speed on defense and speed on the bases ...

 

The key is % success rate, which is already showing slight statistical signs of decline at the age of 29yo. ... His last 3 years he has an 80% success rate (vs) 84% the 5-years prior to that. He hardly has the elite status of someone like Ichiro who not only swiped 45 bases at age 33yo, but also did it with a 96% success rate (and swiped 43 bases at age 35yo with a 92% success rate) ... statistically, Crawford likely will never match Ichiro's longevity!

 

****** ALRIGHT SABERMETRIC GEEKS = I DID THE MATH!!! *********

Crawford's stealing habits DO NOT help him be more productive than the other 10 players! (using formulas from baseball prospectus)

 

a) If the 10 other players all didn't steal when on base with none out, over 57 plate appearances they would each generate 51.96 runs

 

If Crawford attempted 57 steals over 57 plate appearances (like last year), although his successful 47 steals would generate 55.46 runs, his 10 botched steals would lose his team 6.33 runs = for a net of 49.13 runs (2-3 runs less than his non-speedster friends)

 

**** DOUBLE-DOG-DARE ANYONE to statistically justify a $20 million/year, 7-year contract to Crawford!!!! Did The Sox sign Crawford for his "intangibles"???

 

Don't get me wrong: I think Crawford is a great asset to the team - and it certainly is like a kick in the groin to the Yankees (which may actually justify the cost, depending on the degree of discomfort!) ... But, is anyone else out there even the slightest bit perplexed by the extreme $$$$ of this contract for relatively little value?

[BigPapiEnFuego]

Hey, you oughta apply to be the GM!

[Dipre]

While i agree with the general premise of the post (Crawford is getting way overpaid) i don't approve of your tone (if there is such a thing on the internet), what's up with all these "alright saber metrics geek" ********.

 

If you want a well-thought out response about your topic, why make it sound like you're picking a bone with the people you want to respond to your post?

 

First post here, and you already came off as a douche, the point being valid notwithstanding.

[ORS]

Sabermetric gurus' date=' I challenge you to prove his worth (beyond defense[/b']

I stopped right there, because this tells me you aren't asking an honest question. Defense is part of the game, and a big part of his worth.

[BSN07]

I stopped at the title. I would argue Jayson Werth is a better candidate for "worst contract of the new decade". You managed to bring up a good topic of discussion, only to ruin it with you verbal diarrhea.

[mvp 78]

Less sour than Werth, Lee, Soriano.

[Keeper]

Soriano's contract is awful. Don't forget about Zito. He's signed through 2013.

[Station 13]

Soriano's contract is awful. Don't forget about Zito. He's signed through 2013.

 

With a 8 million buy or something. Ouch!

[LooseyGoosey]

Agreed - Zito turned out to be quite the lemon!

 

I just hope that Crawford's best year yet (last year) is truly a sign of more to come & not a statistical aberration!

 

Sorry if I offended those who love stats ... I was using my "tone" tongue-in-cheek to poke fun at myself too!

 

But I would love to hear someone discuss a reasonable argument for Crawford ... MAKE ME A BELIEVER!

[example1]

I stopped right there' date=' because this tells me you aren't asking an honest question. Defense is part of the game, and a big part of his worth.[/quote']

 

Exactly where I stopped too.

 

EDIT: at least initially...

[example1]

**** DOUBLE-DOG-DARE ANYONE to statistically justify a $20 million/year, 7-year contract to Crawford!!!! Did The Sox sign Crawford for his "intangibles"???

 

Yes. For the first time in a while I would say Crawford might have been signed for his intangibles.

 

His tangible assets make him plenty valuable, but probably not at the level of $20m/yr for each of 7 years. However, his intangibles could pretty easily make the contract worth it. Not only does the contract also include the prime years of a potentially Hall of Fame career and consistent playoff appearances, but playing extra games in the playoffs is huge in terms of overall fan interest, merchendise sales, advertizing (both current and future), etc.,.

 

If his WAR are the ones that take public perception of the team from "maybe" making the playoffs to "probably" making the playoffs, over 7 years that's a lot of value in advertizing and merchandise. Because the team is that close he is a smart investment to get that extra revenue given that he's probably worth at least 17m without the inflation of the current FA climate or any addition to team revenue.

 

If his next 7 years mirror his last seven, then he would have 2719 H, probably two seasons away from 3000.

 

He would have 195 triples (8th All-Time).

 

He would have scored 1497 runs (85th all time), ahead of Rod Carew, Roberto Clemente, Joe DiMaggio, Jim Rice, Brooks Robinson, Tony Gwynn and a number of other HOF players.

 

He would have 754 SB (6th All Time).

 

I think you're absolutely right to question whether he's worth that much money in terms of regular season on-field production. In terms of "selling" and the Red Sox as a brand, though, I see him as an investment in the franchise as a whole.

[LooseyGoosey]

Very interesting perspective example1

 

Quote from older Rays Blog: ... the intangibles?

 

"From all I have seen he is a very positive person. When I am hanging around by the field before the games, he is always joking around with the players, batboys, and security staff. He is very well liked by the players ,and he is one of the fan favorites.

 

"His work ethic is one of the best I have seen. They recently did an entire Baseball Tonight episode on his offseason workouts, and they were pretty hard core. He also works hard in BP and plays hard no matter what.

 

"He said the other day in the newspaper here that he knows no other level than as hard as he can play."

[Dojji]

One thing I've always loved about Crawford is that he just seems like a good guy. He's been heavily involved in RBI for example, and has done a lot of good work in TB. He's a really good face guy for a franchise, probably why the Rays used him as such, and he strikes me as leadership material even for a bigger franchise like Boston. I don't mind a few jerks on the roster if we have to have 'em, I loved Pedro like everyone else for example, but it's nice to know that there's some genuinely decent folks on your team too.

[BSN07]

Agreed - Zito turned out to be quite the lemon!

 

I just hope that Crawford's best year yet (last year) is truly a sign of more to come & not a statistical aberration!

 

Sorry if I offended those who love stats ... I was using my "tone" tongue-in-cheek to poke fun at myself too!

 

But I would love to hear someone discuss a reasonable argument for Crawford ... MAKE ME A BELIEVER!

 

Fair enough. You can have a bit more rope;)

 

Guys to be fair he did say "new decade". So Zito, Arod, Soriano ad Carlos Lee don't count

[Space Man]

Crawford's stats have been trending up, while some on this list, have either plateaued or are beginning to decline. Crawford's age, and the idea that his "younger player skill set" should decrease at a slower rate that many of the others on this list, might work in our favor.

 

I am always a fan of good teammates and I think that intangible is too often overlooked.

 

Was it too much? I think that is appears that way to us, today, but when we see what a few guys get next off-season (Pujols and Fielder) it is going to start to come back to earth, and in two years will not be nuts at all. He will still have a lot of time left with us...which hopefully is a good thing.

[SoxSport]

Jeez.. another nonsensical negative thread...administrators please. this is pure crap. 5 posts.

back to the minors, son.

[TRIPxCORE]

This article seems to agree that the Crawford contract was not great.

 

 

 

Carl Crawford Signs Mega-Deal With The Boston Red Sox

 

by Joe Piscopo

 

At the MLB Winter Meetings in Orlando Wednesday night, the Boston Red Sox announced they had signed former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Carl Crawford to a monster seven-year, $142 million contract.

 

 

 

This move came as somewhat of a surprise when all along everyone thought Crawford would be signing with the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels made no secret of the fact that they coveted Crawford and that he was their biggest priority this off-season.

 

Crawford received a total of four offers of which the Red Sox and the Angels were the most lucrative, according to a source close to the negotiations.

 

"It was a very difficult decision for Carl," the source said. "In the end, it came down to his desire to become a member of the Red Sox, move to Boston and the ability to win."

 

The Angels brass have to be steaming over this move as owner Arte Moreno was known to have been none too happy about his team not making the postseason in 2010. He expressed a strong desire to win and said the Angels had money to spend and would be spending it to bring the team back to relevance. With the feelings of Moreno known by all in baseball, and the Angels doing all they could to bring Crawford to Anaheim, this move has to be upsetting to the Angels owner.

 

Crawford is a dynamic player that will be a valuable member of the Red Sox for years to come. However, seven years and $142 million for him is just too much.

 

No one is doubting Crawford's talent or baseball ability. He is a great player but he is not an elite player. The contract he received was an "elite player" contract.

 

His defense is outstanding but his range and speed on defense is going to be wasted in Fenway Park's small left field. He has always been a good hitter and is able to hit for average but not much else. Crawford has a career .296 batting average but only a career .337 OBP. Looking at his average you would think he makes a very good lead-off hitter but his OBP tells a different story. For as good of a hitter as Crawford is, he has never posted 200 hits in a season like Ichiro does every year like clockwork. He has a little pop in his bat but has never hit more than 19 home runs. He has a career OPS of .781 and career OPS+ of 107.

 

The one thing Crawford does excel at is stealing bases. Since becoming a full-time major league player in 2003, Crawford has averaged 50 stolen bases a year. You can expect that he will still be able to steal bases with regularity for quite a few years since he is only 28 years old but that could all change with a leg injury of some sort. Just take a look at what has happened to Jose Reyes of the Mets as an example.

 

To delve just a little bit deeper into Crawford's value, lets take a look at his WAR, or wins above a replacement player. In general, a WAR number between 2-5 represents a regular starting player in the major leagues. A number between 5-8 represents an All-Star caliber player and any number above 8 represents an MVP type of player. Just to give you someone to compare this with, Albert Pujols, one of the best players in the game, has a career average 8.38 WAR according to Baseball-Reference.com.

 

(The two most used sites to get the WAR numbers from are Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com which both use different methods to calculate WAR.)

 

Carl Crawford has a career WAR of only 3.36 which would represent just a normal starting major league player. (To calculate his WAR, I averaged out both Baseball-Reference's WAR and Fangraphs WAR for Crawford.)

 

So the Red Sox just agreed to give $142 million dollars to a player that can hit well but isn't great at getting on base, doesn't hit for much power, steals a lot of bases, and is only an average major league player according to his WAR. So in essence, they are paying for a good batting average and stolen bases. Is that an elite player worthy of $142 million? In my mind, it isn't.

 

The Red Sox failed to make the postseason in 2010. For a team that is now accustomed to winning, this had to sting, which is why I think they felt they needed to make big moves this off-season. They made their first big splash with a trade for Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres and now the Crawford signing. Crawford was widely seen as the big free agent position player of the off-season.

 

The Red Sox have been big spenders for several years now but they have always been careful not to give out deals that were too long. A seven-year contract for the Red Sox is an abnormal move for them and I believe it was a knee-jerk reaction to missing the postseason in 2010. Certainly the Red Sox are going to be a great team now, probably the best in the AL East. In the final 2-3 years of the Crawford deal, though, I think the Red Sox will come to regret making this move and his contract will be seen by many as an albatross around the necks of the Red Sox.

[Johnny_RedSox]

IT WAS A SOLID SIGNING, GET OVER IT

[Will617]

Can the Sox afford to overpay for Crawford? Absolutely.

His value as a player: Very good defense, skillset that should age well, bases stolen success chance is not the total indicator of his value on the basepaths (i.e., if you steal 100% of bases attempted, but only steal one base, you don't give much value; if you steal 80% of bases attempted, but attempted 100 times, your value increases a lot), decent amount of power

His value in the market: Inflated this year, there's nothing that the Sox can do about an increase in spending overall. Furthermore, there are going to be few good OFs avaliable in the next few years. The Sox have a hole in the OF with Drew and Crawford leaving next year and unlikely to be resigned, and Ellsbury potentially leaving a few years down the road. Carlos Beltran, Jose Bautista, Corey Hart, and Ryan Ludwick are among the best options avaliable next year (not including Drew). The only two impact players avaliable next year are Fielder, Pujols, and Reyes (assuming Uggla resigns and Cano's option is picked up, and the fact that the Sox probably aren't interested in them); Pujols won't be paid to just DH, Fielder is also likely to be overpaid to just DH, and Reyes has a lot more question marks. I believe that the market for OFs will also be pretty weak two years after this one, but I can't find a list so this would be just a hunch. There is no better time for the Sox to add an OF than now, and it ensures the team is set and doesn't have to risk giving Reddick another try at an MLB job in a year (fifth time lucky?).

[Dipre]

Is Crawford overpaid? Absolutely.

 

Is it a reflection of the current market, specially with the contract the Nationals gave Werth (which will undoubtedly be worse than the Crawford contract)? Yes sir.

 

My take:

 

The Sox figure that the market will explode again, specially with the talent pool in Free Agency thinning out in the next couple of years, and that stupid contract Werth received, the aggregate value of Crawford's production may just be around what he's actually going to be paid, specially with the likelihood of the dollar value of a win increasing in the next couple of years (thus increasing his WAR as well, just to address that argument.).

 

Pros:

 

- He's in his prime, he's an elite defender and base-stealer, as well as a dynamic player who can do everything well, although he doesn't excel at anything but speed. Added bonus: f***ed with the Yankees, since they would have gone after him if Lee hadn't signed.

 

Cons:

 

- He's close to a platoon player, specially when his wheels begin to go, much of his value relies on speed, whose future development is unpredictably, he's not very good at getting on base, and he doesn't like leading off. Tail-end of the contract a major concern.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre, good analysis. For the first 3 yrs of this deal, he should still be a high WAR guy. The 4th and 5th, you'll see some slippage. By years 6 and 7 he'll be platoon worthy at best. But for the majority of the deal you'll have elite to above average production before he becomes a bit of an albatross.

[TheKilo]

Players with his skill set tend to age very well.

 

The guy was 6th in all of baseball for total WAR the last two seasons.

 

The FA outfield class for 2012'was very weak, Theo decided he wanted his guy a year early.

 

For those who say defense doesn't matter, he is by far and away the best defensive leftfielder in the game and he excels at coming in on the ball (translation - no bloop singles in LF at Fenway this season).

 

Really, it comes down to this - were all used to seeing big sluggers who can't run and don't have any defensive value get monster deals - we just haven't seen the opposite be true until now. The skills that make Crawford who he is will age well and he should be a productive player throughout the course of this deal.

[Palodios]

Its really hard to argue with a team that has put energy and money into putting together such a large goup of elite players like this. Just thinking about the lineup and the rotation they have for several more years in their primes, it makes most of us drool.

[Northern Star]

When you go that much money for that many years, there's always a risk. But until there is a major change in the financial structure of the league, this is pretty much business as usual.

[jacksonianmarch]

Players with his skill set tend to age very well.

 

The guy was 6th in all of baseball for total WAR the last two seasons.

 

The FA outfield class for 2012'was very weak, Theo decided he wanted his guy a year early.

 

For those who say defense doesn't matter, he is by far and away the best defensive leftfielder in the game and he excels at coming in on the ball (translation - no bloop singles in LF at Fenway this season).

 

Really, it comes down to this - were all used to seeing big sluggers who can't run and don't have any defensive value get monster deals - we just haven't seen the opposite be true until now. The skills that make Crawford who he is will age well and he should be a productive player throughout the course of this deal.

 

Players with his skill set do not typically age well. His game outside of his incredible speed is pedestrian at best, especially for a corner OFer. And when the legs slow down, so does his D, which adds significantly to his value.

[Dipre]

Players with his skill set do not typically age well. His game outside of his incredible speed is pedestrian at best' date=' especially for a corner OFer. And when the legs slow down, so does his D, which adds significantly to his value.[/quote']

 

However, there's always the possibility of him adding more power to his game (like Johnny Damon) in his early 30's while maintaining a good amount of his speed.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is that possibility, but you also negate a little bit of it by moving to a lefty unfriendly ballpark. Remember, Damon showed a lot of his power with a very short porch in RF

[Dipre]

There is that possibility' date=' but you also negate a little bit of it by moving to a lefty unfriendly ballpark. Remember, Damon showed a lot of his power with a very short porch in RF[/quote']

 

Remember that Damon's first real display of power came on his age 30 season with the Sox. The short porch helped, but so will them bringing the fence in at Fenway.

 

All we can do is wait and see.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still think that from 2011-2013, he'll still be a 6-7 WAR guy, which is elite

[italstallianion]

I think that Werth would have been a better fit with the Sox this year, but Crawford would be better for the Red Sox for all of the other years. Not only would we have a lot of money freed up (or reallocated) after this year, but with Ortiz and Drew gone we'd no longer be drastically left handed in our lineup. I think that Theo did a very good job thinking about the long term benefit of the team.

 

I wonder if Crawford's benefit to the team would increase if we put him in RF and put Drew in LF. Crawford's defense would be more useful and we might be able to keep Drew healthier. Just a random (probably useless) thought.