The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Dipre]

You mentioned his career line' date=' the only reason he is a hall of famer, are a) +2400 hits and 13 gold gloves and [b'] he played on a era were he probably was the best offensive SS.

[/b]

My point is I'd rather have Lowrie if healthy at SS. Is not like Lowrie is an horrendous defender to justify having Andrus 2.0 in the everyday lineup.

 

I didn't know he was better offensively than Robin Yount, Barry Larkin and Carl Ripken Jr, but i digress.

[example1]

The problem with these two players is that we've already pretty much hit a stand still in discussion. Until we see more, we've pretty much looked at everything.

 

Iggy- pros: plus plus defense. FO seems to believe he'll be the SS of the future. Cons: no power. No evidence of how he'll hit in the majors.

 

Lowrie-- pros: hits good when healthy. Can play any infield position. 9 home runs in 55 AB. cons: health concerns. SSS. HR power not present in minor league stats. Defense may not be as good as we saw in 2010. He also suffers from sexy beast syndrome and may get other illness or diseases from it besides mono. (That last line proving how thoroughly discussed this has been).

 

But the Red Sox have seen plenty of both and seem intent on putting Iglesias at SS eventually. There is nothing about his game that says when he's 26 he won't be manning a MLB starting spot and that he won't be a starting SS for the rest of his (hopefully long) career. His glove is literally good enough to justify that on its own given his age. Any bat will just be gravy.

 

We can all argue on this site all day long but none of us know anything compared to the people who see him every day.

 

When a minor league coach says that Ryan Kalish could be an MLB superstar and people here are questioning whether he's going to be good enough to be an MLB regular (not you, mind you) I think that says something.

 

People should just have some faith in the talent ealuators and rely less on needing to be personally impressed. That's just me though...

[a700hitter]

But the Red Sox have seen plenty of both and seem intent on putting Iglesias at SS eventually. There is nothing about his game that says when he's 26 he won't be manning a MLB starting spot and that he won't be a starting SS for the rest of his (hopefully long) career. His glove is literally good enough to justify that on its own given his age. Any bat will just be gravy.

 

We can all argue on this site all day long but none of us know anything compared to the people who see him every day.

 

When a minor league coach says that Ryan Kalish could be an MLB superstar and people here are questioning whether he's going to be good enough to be an MLB regular (not you, mind you) I think that says something.

 

People should just have some faith in the talent ealuators and rely less on needing to be personally impressed. That's just me though...

I haven't questioned the ability of either Iglesias or Kalish to be a major league starter. The only thing I am debating here is the timetable. If Lowrie wins the SS job in 2011 and hits like he did at the end of 2010, it would be very difficult for Iglesias to unseat him in 2012.

[example1]

I haven't questioned the ability of either Iglesias or Kalish to be a major league starter. The only thing I am debating here is the timetable. If Lowrie wins the SS job in 2011 and hits like he did at the end of 2010' date=' it would be very difficult for Iglesias to unseat him in 2012.[/quote']

 

They will have an extra good player to do something with. I don't dispute that. That's why I mentioned the possibility of trade for Iglesias.

 

I'm not about to get into your discussion with Dipre; I think you're both right in a sense.

 

I like Lowrie more than he does and think he could be one of the better SS in the league. I like Kalish more than you do and think he could be one of the better RFs in the league... if I've been following your points correctly, that is.

 

Iglesias might take a year or two to join the club, but with a 4 year MLB deal the clock is ticking already. This team should have plenty of offensive firepower, I think they will really prioritize elite defense at SS to support the pitching staff and to supplement a bit of Youkilis's range at 3B.

 

It will be interesting to see how things progress.

[Palodios]

But the Red Sox have seen plenty of both and seem intent on putting Iglesias at SS eventually.

 

Since when did minor league numbers mean anything? Dojji is treated like a laughing stock every time he mentions any of them. Until Iglesias can hit at a level above A ball, I see no reason to assume he'll be handed the SS job in 2012.

[a700hitter]

Since when did minor league numbers mean anything? Dojji is treated like a laughing stock every time he mentions any of them. Until Iglesias can hit at a level above A ball' date=' I see no reason to assume he'll be handed the SS job in 2012.[/quote']The only chance Iglesias has of being the starting SS at the beginning of 2012 is if Lowrie or Scutaro gets injured or under performs in 2011 and Iglesias gets called up in 2011 for some PT. If he doesn't see some PT in the majors in 2011, he will not get the starting job at the beginning of 2012.

[example1]

Since when did minor league numbers mean anything? Dojji is treated like a laughing stock every time he mentions any of them. Until Iglesias can hit at a level above A ball' date=' I see no reason to assume he'll be handed the SS job in 2012.[/quote']

 

a) Not by me he isn't.

Doj being treated like a laughing stock has no baring on this issue one way or another.

 

I regularly use minor league numbers as a predictor--not a rock-solid predictor but a better predictor than short MLB sample-sizes--of what a player is likely to be like when he is playing as same aged competition at the MLB level (i.e., when that player is in his prime against other players in their prime).

 

As for Iglesias's ability to hit, it really is pretty secondary if he's an exceptional fielder. I have yet to read a single scout who doubts whether he will have the skills to be a regular player on an MLB club, and that is without any regard to whether he can hit or not. The only question--as I have read it--is whether he will be an all-star by developing a decent bat (a la Omar Vizquel, 3 time AS), or whether he will merely be an above average MLB fielder who can't hit well but who can hold a position.

 

I'm pretty confident that there is a strong correlation between the type of hand-eye coordination necessary to be an elite defensive shortstop (which nobody denies he should be) and being able to put the bat on the ball at a level on-par with Alex Cora.

 

 

As for the timeline (2012 yay/nay) that's not a discussion I'm part of or interested in joining in. It is all speculation from everyone here. At best some have seem Iglesias bat a few times, most have never seen him play before. We hear what the FO and scouts say about him and I'm going to rely on their reports. He can field better than just about anyone (MLB or otherwise). Whether that means he starts in 2012 or 2013 doesn't matter to me in the slightest.

 

You guys can keep arguing so that when he does or doesn't start the person who is right can pat themselves on the back because they knew he was going to (rather than guessing correctly on a yes/no proposition).

 

...is it time for the season to start yet?

[Dipre]

Since when did minor league numbers mean anything? Dojji is treated like a laughing stock every time he mentions any of them. Until Iglesias can hit at a level above A ball' date=' I see no reason to assume he'll be handed the SS job in 2012.[/quote']

 

Can you use another completely unrelated and more different situation to justify your position?

 

The prospects Dojji usually pimps are not elite-level defenders with Major League contracts whom talent evaluators compare to Ozzie Smith (talent evaluators that know far more about baseball than me or you mind you) and that Theo Epstein himself has pronounced an intent on "handing him" a position because of generational defensive skills. Context.

[Dojji]

This is the American League East. Every player at every position needs to hit, at least a little. At least as much as say Gonzo a couple years ago. You cannot have Tony Pena, Jr. on your roster no matter how well he fields. Not in this division.

 

Theo is talking like a guy with confidence in Iglesias to figure out offense on a relayively consistent basis, at least well enough to be merely below average. I'll take it on faith that Theo knows what he's talking about. But it's not like there is no competition for the shortstop job in 2012 either. Iglesias is going to have to get through Lowrie for the job, and Lowrie has made it plain he plans to make a fight of it by the way he's trained this offseason. He'll need to make good use of this year, but he has more than enough raw talent to play at a high level as a starting SS if things fall right for him and that puts Iglesias in a tight spot, especially because of Jed's relative experience forming a potential tiebreaker.

 

If Lowrie is hitting up to his ability ans playing average to above average D I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that that's a better package than Glovey McNoodlebat, so if Iglesias wants to work in Boston, he needs to offer more than that package. He needs to hit.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I can hear it now.

 

"Hey honey. Hey. Come check out what I wrote on talksox.com."

 

"What'd you write?"

 

"See? I called Iglesias Glovey McNoodlebat. Get it? Because he has a good glove but can't hit well"

 

"....chirp chirp, chirp chirp"

 

Joking, I would say that a lot of this depends on two things. Can Lowrie come up and consistently perform at a level like 2010? And also - How does Salty perform this year? We can afford to hide one sub-par bat in our line up if it strengthens our defense enough, but if we have to hide Salty AND Iglesias, then we could be in a bit more trouble.

[Dojji]

Glovey McNoodlebat is a fairly common term around here describing a whole category of limited offense shortstops that are there for their defense. I didn't invent it just for Iglesias.

 

Anywho, all signs point to a productive Lowrie next year from here. It'll have to translate from theory to practice of course, but Lowrie's doing what he needs to do right now in order to take the next step in his development, and before I get too sold on the new kid being the starting SS in 2012, I wanna see what Jed can do in a full, healthy season in 2011.

[Dipre]

I can hear it now.

 

"Hey honey. Hey. Come check out what I wrote on talksox.com."

 

"What'd you write?"

 

"See? I called Iglesias Glovey McNoodlebat. Get it? Because he has a good glove but can't hit well"

 

"....chirp chirp, chirp chirp"

Joking, I would say that a lot of this depends on two things. Can Lowrie come up and consistently perform at a level like 2010? And also - How does Salty perform this year? We can afford to hide one sub-par bat in our line up if it strengthens our defense enough, but if we have to hide Salty AND Iglesias, then we could be in a bit more trouble.

 

 

Lol!

 

By the way, i take credit for the "Glovey Mcnoodlebat" line which i initially used to describe another light-hitting shortstop in 2009, who went on to hit twenty-three homers last year. Let's keep calling Iglesias that to apply some mojo.

[Palodios]

Can you use another completely unrelated and more different situation to justify your position?

 

The prospects Dojji usually pimps are not elite-level defenders with Major League contracts whom talent evaluators compare to Ozzie Smith (talent evaluators that know far more about baseball than me or you mind you) and that Theo Epstein himself has pronounced an intent on "handing him" a position because of generational defensive skills. Context.

 

I don't recall mentioning defense anywhere. If he hits .180 in the majors, it won't matter how his glove is, especially if Lowrie turns into an above average defender. I have read more than one scouting report that has called Iggy's bat underwhelming, and that's my concern. Hand eye coordination may translate into improved hitting and walk totals.... but it might not. The Sox will have 3 options at SS going into 2012, and until I see something more than defensive web gems from Iggy, I'm not making any assumptions.

 

And as much as I like Al-gon, last year in Toronto was kind of screwy. His power went up, but his defense dropped much closer to average.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I was just jackin around.

 

Alex Gonzalez, I'm assuming you're talking about, had probably the biggest fluke season since Brady Anderson in 1996.

 

Or Jose Bautista in 2010.

 

Ok, 2nd biggest fluke season since Brady Anderson.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't recall mentioning defense anywhere. If he hits .180 in the majors, it won't matter how his glove is, especially if Lowrie turns into an above average defender. I have read more than one scouting report that has called Iggy's bat underwhelming, and that's my concern. Hand eye coordination may translate into improved hitting and walk totals.... but it might not. The Sox will have 3 options at SS going into 2012, and until I see something more than defensive web gems from Iggy, I'm not making any assumptions.

 

And as much as I like Al-gon, last year in Toronto was kind of screwy. His power went up, but his defense dropped much closer to average.

 

In all fairness, the original assumption was that Iggy would put up a line of .265/.330/.380. If he was hitting .180, obviously there would be problems.

 

I still say we should keep Lowrie around as a potential DH/Super Utility player. He would provide incredible versatility in the DH role, and if he can put up 15-20 HR with an OBP of .370+, why not?

 

That's hardly a hole in our line up, and having a switch hitting high OBP/above average power hitting super utility guy who can give Gonzo, Pedey, and Youk days off while keeping their bat in the line up, what's not to like?

 

Especially at around $500k.

[Dipre]

I don't recall mentioning defense anywhere. If he hits .180 in the majors, it won't matter how his glove is, especially if Lowrie turns into an above average defender. I have read more than one scouting report that has called Iggy's bat underwhelming, and that's my concern. Hand eye coordination may translate into improved hitting and walk totals.... but it might not. The Sox will have 3 options at SS going into 2012, and until I see something more than defensive web gems from Iggy, I'm not making any assumptions.

 

And as much as I like Al-gon, last year in Toronto was kind of screwy. His power went up, but his defense dropped much closer to average.

 

Where are these scouting reports? From all i've read (including a breakdown on his mechanics) he's a bat on ball guy who has has made adjustments and has the potential to be a decent hitter in the majors.

 

Jose Iglesias Scouting Report

by Steve Carter

January 4, 2010

 

Jose Iglesias has yet to appear in an official regular season professional baseball game. And as you'd expect not a lot is known about him. We were able to gain some preliminary thoughts from his Arizona Fall League performance, and we saw some things to definitely be excited about. One of them is his incredibly flashy and smooth defense. But will he be more than a player who wows you with the glove then inspires you to take a bathroom break while he's at the plate? That is still up in the air.

 

Iglesias is not an imposing figure at the plate and he lacks the pure strength of most major league players. At times, he can be overpowered by good, hard fastballs, especially ones up in the zone. But he still gives himself a fighting chance by having solid swing quickness and surprisingly good bat speed.

 

My first impression of Iglesias was that he was a guy who had an exaggerated chopping hand path to the ball in an effort to stay short and quick. This is not a good way to produce a lot of bat speed, nor is it a good way to have the bat on plane with the pitch for a long time; both reduce his chances of a high contact rate.

 

In the Arizona Fall League's Rising Stars game, Iglesias simply looked over matched. His small loading pattern didn't give him enough time to reach a max-load in time, and he had to push with everything he had to catch up. And catch up he did not. Iglesias is not a particularly patient hitter. He's also mostly a pull hitter. He struggled on off-speed pitches away in the AFL as well. These are certainly things to keep an eye on.

 

But as time went on in the fall league, it seemed Iglesias made some adjustments, which is something you love to see in a young prospect (he was born on 1/5/1990).

 

Lower Body

 

Over time, Iglesias' lower body has grown on me. Starting with weight on your front leg and pushing forward to get momentum and a "giddy-up", as Iglesias does, usually is a good way to get to the fastball, but you'll lose fractions of reaction time for off-speed pitches and have trouble tracking the ball as long as possible. Iglesias offsets this by staying fairly centered on his rear hip as he moves forward, and he never lets himself get too far onto his front leg.

 

Iglesias does a good job of coiling inward with his front knee. He couples that movement with a short stride, which prevents him to from shifting on his front side too early. Iglesias is a weight transfer hitter. He relies on momentum and small muscles on the front side to gain added bat speed -- different from weight-shift hitters, who generally stay tall and loaded on their rear leg before unleashing from their rear hip. A player of his stature needs all he can get in terms of energy produced, and his weight transfer allows him to smoothly and forcefully exert energy without expending too much effort.

 

Upper Body

 

As I touched on earlier, Iglesias has a very small loading pattern. His stroke is short but it lacks the length and stretch to produce above-average bat speed. Against hard fastballs, he has to rush to catch up, throwing off his swing mechanics.

 

Iglesias' "static stretch" type load -- similar to a static stretch of a muscle -- forces him to stop his barrel, robbing him of the free bat speed that a continuously moving barrel offers. He gets the barrel though by having quick and strong wrists. And now that he has removed his downward chopping hand path, he is much better at plane matching the barrel to the pitch.

 

His top hand is slightly over-gripped but it comes back to close to a neutral position when he loads his upper body. This type of grip allows him to be strong to the ball on his pull side, and generally leads to a slice when he's hitting to the opposite field. But with Iglesias' offensive game relying more on speed and base hits than long drives, this might actually be a good thing for him. Balls hit up the middle will slice away from the center fielder towards the right center gap, and balls hit to right field will slice towards the corner -- increasing his chances for extra-base hits.

 

Conclusions

 

Iglesias is a player who grows on you the more you watch him. He does not profile as a big time major league bat, but he should not be a team killer. You can see a little bit of Omar Infante or Yunel Escobar in some parts of his swing, which does bode well for his chances to succeed at the major league level. At the same time, his small stature and smaller loading pattern do not bode well for him ever hitting for a lot of pop. He's a strong low-ball hitter. And if he can maintain his swing quickness and a high contact rate by attacking the ball down and laying off the pitch up, his outstanding defense will make him a very valuable major league player.

 

The only real concern i've read about him is that he's a natural free-swinger, which is not a fit with the Sox' offensive philosophy.

 

On the other hand, you mention Lowrie "turning himself into an above-average defender". Unlike offense, defense (specially at SS) is very difficult to improve upon, even though it is possible (See: Pujols, Albert; Ramirez, Hanley; Youkilis, Kevin; Cano, Robinson) but why can we make the assumption that Lowrie's defense can improve drastically but Iglesias' offense won't?

 

The people who evaluate talent say Iglesias has all the tools to be a Major League regular soon. I believe them.

[Palodios]

Even the scout you quoted had several negative things to say about Iglesias's bat. We've seen a ton of over-hyped prospects over the last few years. If his bat is underwhelming now, and turns to be even worse when facing major league pitching, that is my concern. I don't think that is unreasonable.

[jacksonianmarch]

Iglesias is not a good hitter right now and projects as a guy with very little power and little plate discipline. His glove is his meal ticket and from the sounds of it, his bat doesnt have much of any projection

[Dipre]

Even the scout you quoted had several negative things to say about Iglesias's bat. We've seen a ton of over-hyped prospects over the last few years. If his bat is underwhelming now' date=' and turns to be even worse when facing major league pitching, that is my concern. I don't think that is unreasonable.[/quote']

 

Yet my concerns about Lowrie's health and the idea that he may have grossly overperformed last season on a SSS are unreasonable right?

 

 

@Jacko: And where did you find these projections? Or did you make them? as far as i'm concerned, you're no talent evaluator.

[Palodios]

Yet my concerns about Lowrie's health and the idea that he may have grossly overperformed last season on a SSS are unreasonable right?

 

Health and SSS, no. Grossly overperformed, perhaps a little bit. I usually preface any Lowrie loving with "if he's healthy" and I constantly point out that he did so well despite not playing for the past two years. I can't think of any case where players come back from years of injuries and play like the best player at their position in the league.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't understand why everyone is getting so up in arms about whether or not Iglesias is going to be an above average hitter.

 

Wasn't it just 3 years ago that we had Julio Lugo, who posted a -0.5 UZR/150, along with a slash line of .237/.294/.349 in 147 games at SS, and a 0.4 WAR?

 

And that year the Sox scored 867 runs. And the World Series.

 

Now look at Iglesias. Gold glove caliber defense. Better offense than Lugo. He'll be a 3.5+ WAR player.

 

So what's with all the worrying about his offense? His defense is going to more than make up for his offensive struggles.

 

:dunno:

[italstallianion]

Forsyth, it's all because chicks dig the long ball.

[italstallianion]

Btw Forsyth (and this applies to Dipre too) send me your damn power rankings before tonight.

[SoxFanForsyth]

First Place - Me.

 

The rest doesn't matter.

[italstallianion]

Keep in mind that you're only ranking the other 14 teams. So send me a list of the teams and how you'd rank them 1-14. Or if you want to be cute and put yourself at the top, rank the other 14 teams from 2-15.

[a700hitter]

As for the timeline (2012 yay/nay) that's not a discussion I'm part of or interested in joining in. It is all speculation from everyone here. At best some have seem Iglesias bat a few times, most have never seen him play before. We hear what the FO and scouts say about him and I'm going to rely on their reports. He can field better than just about anyone (MLB or otherwise). Whether that means he starts in 2012 or 2013 doesn't matter to me in the slightest.

 

You guys can keep arguing so that when he does or doesn't start the person who is right can pat themselves on the back because they knew he was going to (rather than guessing correctly on a yes/no proposition).

The time line was a relevant issue for discussion and debate at the beginning of the offseason when some people were proposing that 2011 could be a bridge season. I looked at the minor league crop and concluded that there would be no major help coming from the minors before 2013, so I didn't see 2012 as the other side of the bridge. Once the FO opened up the wallet and started the spending spree on AGon, Crawford, Jenks and Wheeler it became evident that 2011 is not a bridge year. It's only relevant as a discussion point at this juncture out of boredom-- and to bet beer on whether my earlier sigged statement will be proved correct. Do you want some action? I'm on the hook for 4 cases of beer if I am wrong on both counts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Alright - Sent Italian.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The time line was a relevant issue for discussion and debate at the beginning of the offseason when some people were proposing that 2011 could be a bridge season. I looked at the minor league crop and concluded that there would be no major help coming from the minors before 2013' date=' so I didn't see 2012 as the other side of the bridge. Once the FO opened up the wallet and started the spending spree on AGon, Crawford, Jenks and Wheeler it became evident that 2011 is not a bridge year. It's only relevant as a discussion point at this juncture out of boredom-- and to bet beer on whether my earlier sigged statement will be proved correct. Do you want some action? I'm on the hook for 4 cases of beer if I am wrong on both counts.[/quote']

 

And I drink Newcastle, by the way. My gambling buddies drink Natty Light.

[Dojji]

I don't understand why everyone is getting so up in arms about whether or not Iglesias is going to be an above average hitter.

 

Wasn't it just 3 years ago that we had Julio Lugo, who posted a -0.5 UZR/150, along with a slash line of .237/.294/.349 in 147 games at SS, and a 0.4 WAR?

 

And that year the Sox scored 867 runs. And the World Series.

 

Now look at Iglesias. Gold glove caliber defense. Better offense than Lugo. He'll be a 3.5+ WAR player.

 

So what's with all the worrying about his offense? His defense is going to more than make up for his offensive struggles.

 

:dunno:

 

You've at least got to get a 0 WAR bat out of the guy. His bat at least needs to not drag his glove down. If you can get .270/.320/.360 out of Iglesias you're doing pretty well. You might not even get that in a rookie campaign. Until I see more out of him in the minors I can't consider the concerns about his bat anything but legitimate, especially when there's so little power projection from the guy, much less any real hitting discipline.

 

And on the other side of the same discussion you have a guy who could be an above average defender in his own right and hit much better, and will already be on the roster when Iglesias is trying to break in. I don't think it's fair to relegate Lowrie permanently to the bench without giving him a couple solid months to start and see what he does with it. He is not Johnny Brittlebones, and he's been working hard this offseason. And he has the ability to dramatically outplay Scutaro this coming season and make the shortstop job his own -- if he's allowed to and we're not stupid enough to disincentivize good play by sticking with a plan in the teeth of the facts.

 

Basically all I'm saying is, before we decide that Iglesias is definitely our SS going forward starting in 2012, let's see what Lowrie -- who is by any reasonable standard a possible viable contender for the starting SS position -- can manage to put together in 2011.

[Dipre]

I need Advil.

 

The questions about Iglesias are legitimate, but the questions about Lowrie aren't.

 

Off to the pharmacy i go.