The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[BSN07]

I need Advil.

 

The questions about Iglesias are legitimate, but the questions about Lowrie aren't.

 

Off to the pharmacy i go.

 

That was almost my exact same thought reading through that post.

 

Iglesias has ? about his bat.

 

Lowrie has ? about his health.

 

Nothing ground breaking or controversial there.

 

IMO the most likely scenario is Iglesias starts about 1/2 the games at SS in 2012. While Lowrie plays the other half at SS and gets about 40-50 games between 2B/3B/1B/DH and some AB's in the PH role.

 

Let's not lose all logic and reason because it's late January

[Dojji]

I need Advil.

 

The questions about Iglesias are legitimate, but the questions about Lowrie aren't.

 

Off to the pharmacy i go.

 

While you're there, pick up a clue about the difference between medial issues and skillset issues, and the different effects having questionmarks in each area have on projections.

 

Lowrie has always been at least somewhat productive when healthy. The issue with Iglesias is that we aren't sure he's going to be productive even when he is. What that means in theory is that Lowrie has a distinct upside if his health issues are in fact behind him, as they appear to be. I'm not convinced his numbers last year are all that fluky -- certainly north of where he'll be for a full season, but where he'll be for a full season is well above the level, at least offensively, that Iglesias will be able to match as a rookie.

 

I think the upside on Iglesias is at about the Orlando Cabrera level while Lowrie could potentially reach the level of a John Valentin. It's a question of style choice whether you'd rather have a Cabrera or a Valentin. I'm persuaded that as long as Lowrie's glove is not a liability at short, his bat makes it more likely that he returns high overall value relative to Iglesias, whose defensive skills would make him an excellent substitute while he's learning to hit at the big league level.

[Palodios]

There is also the possibility that Iglesias spends 2011 in AA, gets called up to Pawtucket mid-season, gets called up to Boston at the end of 2012. Youk's contract is up at the end of 2012, with an option for 2013, so they could either not pick up the option, or let him DH. In that scenario, Iggy is SS, Lowrie is 3B. The glove is fine, his bat is what we worry about, and I think giving him ample time to work on developing skills couldn't hurt, but then again, I always prefer giving players as much time in the minors as possible.

[Dojji]

One thing that is true, Lowrie gives us lots of options for developing our prospects. However as at least an average defensive SS with a decent bat, he needs to be in the mix as the starting SS if that's what makes us the better team. Scutaro has been a backup much of his career, he knows how.

[Dipre]

While you're there, pick up a clue about the difference between medial issues and skillset issues, and the different effects having questionmarks in each area have on projections.

 

Lowrie has always been at least somewhat productive when healthy. The issue with Iglesias is that we aren't sure he's going to be productive even when he is. What that means in theory is that Lowrie has a distinct upside if his health issues are in fact behind him, as they appear to be. I'm not convinced his numbers last year are all that fluky -- certainly north of where he'll be for a full season, but where he'll be for a full season is well above the level, at least offensively, that Iglesias will be able to match as a rookie.

 

I think the upside on Iglesias is at about the Orlando Cabrera level while Lowrie could potentially reach the level of a John Valentin. It's a question of style choice whether you'd rather have a Cabrera or a Valentin. I'm persuaded that as long as Lowrie's glove is not a liability at short, his bat makes it more likely that he returns high overall value relative to Iglesias, whose defensive skills would make him an excellent substitute while he's learning to hit at the big league level.

 

And the "Dojji can't understand what he reads" saga continues.

 

Do. You. Read. Through. What. I. Post?

 

Have. I. Not. Mentioned. Several. Times. The. Realistic. Possibility. Of. Overperformance. And. Actual. Talent. Level?

 

Have. I. Not. Mentioned. In. Previous. Posts. Questions. About. His . Defense?

 

I. Am. Typing. Like . This. So. You. Can. Understand.

 

Maybe you're the one who needs to grab a clue about what a skillset question is?

 

The Sox have (and these are things that Sox executives, mainly Theo have ACTUALLY said) stated they view Iglesias as the Shortstop of the future.

 

Do you know why that is?

 

Because they evaluate talent, and they're pretty certain that Iglesias will provide right around league level production.

 

I find it hypocritical that people talk like they have a significant ML sample to work with when regarding Lowrie. They don't, and they're also not talent evaluators.

 

There's a distinct possibility that Lowrie overperformed last year, and a lot of people (unsurprisingly) agree with this assessment. Go to Boston.com and listen to the Boston Globe Red Sox podcast: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/multimedia/podcast/

 

Nick Cafardo and Chad Finn discuss the situation right around the halfway point of the podcast:

 

This is what they think:

 

1) There are questions about Jed Lowrie's health. They speak of real health concerns voiced by people that actually work for the Red Sox.

 

2) There are questions about Jed Lowrie's actual offensive talent level. (Hint, hint: Skillset question marks). Last year's production was qualified as "surprising".

 

3) There are question about Jed Lowrie's defensive proficiency at SS. (Hint, hint: Skillset question marks.

 

4) A guy who can hit around or above replacement level and play all defensive positions is golden. They speak of Lowrie playing three out of every four days.

 

5)They also speak of the Red Sox having voiced the conviction of Jose Iglesias being the SS of the future as soon as 2012.

 

Now someone come back and tell me how they know more than Nick Cafardo, Gordon Edes, and things proclaimed by the FO are all wrong because they essentially are better talent evaluators or know more about baseball than them.

 

/endrant.

[Palodios]

Wait, are there actually "Real health concerns" about Lowrie? You never mentioned actual injuries involved, just the possibility of more. Lowrie, Theo and Francona have all talked about him as perfectly health lately-- are there reports that say otherwise? Factual injuries would change this conversation sharply, but so far it has just sounded like conjecture."

 

Its funny, I could have sworn Lowrie was the "shortstop of the future" at one point too.

[bsox0407]

Wait' date=' are there actually "Real health concerns" about Lowrie? You never mentioned actual injuries involved, just the possibility of more. Lowrie, Theo and Francona have all talked about him as perfectly health lately-- are there reports that say otherwise? Factual injuries would change this conversation sharply, but so far it has just sounded like conjecture.[/quote']

 

He has been hurt all the years that he was possible MLB material. What makes 2011 any different.

[Palodios]

He has been hurt all the years that he was possible MLB material. What makes 2011 any different.

 

How many baseball related injuries has he had? I can only think of one. And the only reason why it got so bad was because he was trying to tough it out, and it inevitably got worse. How long did it take for Ortiz to fully recover from wrist problems?

[bsox0407]

How many baseball related injuries has he had? I can only think of one. And the only reason why it got so bad was because he was trying to tough it out' date=' and it inevitably got worse. How long did it take for Ortiz to fully recover from wrist problems?[/quote']

 

Ortiz still has not gotten over his injury fully. Watch a swing of his post injury and pre-injury.

 

 

Statistically Lowrie has a high likely hood of being injured.

[Palodios]

Statistically Lowrie has a high likely hood of being injured.

 

Why? I haven't heard a single word about his wrist being a problem since 2009. He had no major injury issues in either the minor leagues, or in college, so why is it blatantly assumed he'll be hurt again?

[bsox0407]

Why? I haven't heard a single word about his wrist being a problem since 2009. He had no major injury issues in either the minor leagues' date=' or in college, so why is it blatantly assumed he'll be hurt again?[/quote']

 

when was the last time he played a MLB season completely.

[SoxFanForsyth]

when was the last time he played a MLB season completely.

 

To be fair, he had mono last year and was clearly not restricted by his wrist, as seen in his 2010 stats.

 

That's not to say that landing on it wrong or jamming it wouldn't re-injure it, but for now I think it's safe to say that he is at least healed for the time being.

 

The real question regarding Lowrie vs Iglesias is whether or not Lowrie's offensive capabilities are far enough superior to Iglesias's to merit the decrease in defensive talent.

[Palodios]

when was the last time he played a MLB season completely.

 

He played 134 games in 2008, and 157 games in 2007, in his leagues combined. The only year he was severely limited because of baseball-related injuries was 2009. Are you really so daft to believe one bad year makes him a softy?

[Dipre]

"Softy?"

 

Who called him a "softy"?

 

Not me, at least, what i have stated, however, is that credible sources have mentioned the issue of the Sox Fo being weary of Lowrie's health.

 

You can say "he's healthy" until you're blue in the face, but if they want to take him slow due to fear of injury, there is something there.

[Palodios]

Not me' date=' at least, what i have stated, however, is that credible sources have mentioned the issue of the Sox Fo being weary of Lowrie's health.[/quote']

 

If you're going to stand by this statement, please give me a source, as it would contribute to the discussion greatly. He was given very few days off last season, and that usually seemed more likely to be because of platoon reasons.

[Dipre]

If you're going to stand by this statement' date=' please give me a source, as it would contribute to the discussion greatly.[/quote']

 

The Podcast link i literally posted two posts ago where Chad Finn and Nick Cafardo (who actually have the inside track towards Red Sox-related information) discuss the Lowrie situation?

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/basebal...media/podcast/

 

They have their doubts about Lowrie's health and make mention of what they believe are doubts within the FO as well. Listen to it, it's towards the middle of the podcast.

[VA Sox Fan]

Didn't want to start a new thread....sorry to go off topic......

 

The MLB Network is counting down the 20 best games of all time. Tonight at 8pm Game #17 on their list is Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS....fyi.....

[bsox0407]

He played 134 games in 2008' date=' and 157 games in 2007, in his leagues combined. The only year he was severely limited because of baseball-related injuries was 2009. Are you really so daft to believe one bad year makes him a softy?[/quote']

 

He seems to share a few traits with our Buddy Nomar on the injured part.

 

And Call me daft? Do you know me? Do you find it funny when you can't come with proof of a full MLB 160+ game season and you call me daft?

[Palodios]

He seems to share a few traits with our Buddy Nomar on the injured part.

 

And Call me daft? Do you know me? Do you find it funny when you can't come with proof of a full MLB 160+ game season and you call me daft?

 

If you made out with a chick who has Mono, because you're a baseball player your immune system should make you completely invulnerable to it? Come on, that's just silly. He's had a ton of bad luck-- it happens. And seriously, how many players actually play 160 games per season? 137 is close enough.

 

The Podcast link i literally posted two posts ago where Chad Finn and Nick Cafardo (who actually have the inside track towards Red Sox-related information) discuss the Lowrie situation?

 

That podcast was hidden in the middle of your page-long rant to Dojji--which I mostly ignored. Maybe we're both listening for different things, but it sounded more like they were concerned that his body wasn't conditioned well enough because he hadn't played a full season of baseball in two years. They mentioned that Lowrie was tired-- as in, the symptom of Mono. I listened to it twice, and it definitely sounded like they were concerned with how his body would handle professional baseball again-- not with any lasting effects of recurring injury.

[bsox0407]

Scutaro was playing with a bad shoulder during the season and only missed 12 games. What is your beef with Scutaro. A player who took a cortisone shot in the neck in the season and still hurt hit well.

 

We Put Drew off as an no matter what injury. he has played in 100+ plus games in 11-of his 12 full seasons. He plays an avg. of 122 games per. in 3 of 4 years with the sox he has played over 130 games.

 

Why do worry about Drew, when if we started Lowrie, i would worry 10x more than Drew.

 

Scutaro is a good SS can field and hit. He is coming off 2 really good years. Plus not to mention his WAR that was better than Lowrie's.

[bsox0407]

If you made out with a chick who has Mono' date=' because you're a baseball player your immune system should make you completely invulnerable to it? Come on, that's just silly. He's had a ton of bad luck-- it happens. And seriously, how many players actually play 160 games per season? 137 is close enough. [/quote']

 

You cant be 100 percent sure if Lowrie can make a full season no one is. Well based on STATS. It shows he wont be around for 100 games.

[Station 13]

Just made this

 

http://www.gifsoup.com/view1/1805923/pedro-1999-o.gif

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Gotta love Pedro.

[Dipre]

That podcast was hidden in the middle of your page-long rant to Dojji--which I mostly ignored. Maybe we're both listening for different things, but it sounded more like they were concerned that his body wasn't conditioned well enough because he hadn't played a full season of baseball in two years. They mentioned that Lowrie was tired-- as in, the symptom of Mono. I listened to it twice, and it definitely sounded like they were concerned with how his body would handle professional baseball again-- not with any lasting effects of recurring injury.

 

Questions asked during the podcast:

 

"Can he keep that offensive production during a whole year, he simply hasn't done it yet?"

 

"What about his D? He has limited range, and while he's steady, he's around average"

 

"Is he durable enough?"

 

"Is he capable of being an everyday player?"

 

"Do the Sox really mean he could be an everyday player? He started getting tired while playing a lot towards the end of last year".

 

We were definitely looking for different things, because these seem like legitimate questions and concerns to me.

 

Opinions conveyed:

 

"He would play a lot with so many post-surgical players, he would essentially replace Bill Hall and if kept in that role would get close to 400 AB's a year".

 

"If he proves he can play every day, he's going to be a heck of a player"

 

"The Red Sox view Iglesias as the SS of the future."

 

 

 

"The Red Sox view

[Palodios]

Scutaro was playing with a bad shoulder during the season and only missed 12 games. What is your beef with Scutaro. A player who took a cortisone shot in the neck in the season and still hurt hit well.

 

Scutaro is a good SS can field and hit. He is coming off 2 really good years. Plus not to mention his WAR that was better than Lowrie's.

 

Where did I say a single negative thing about Scutaro? Go find the old post "Who are your favorite Red Sox players" and you will find Scutaro at the top of my list. One of the reasons why I like Lowrie so much is how he fought through the wrist injury in 2008. His results didn't end up all that great, but I got the impression that he had grit, but in the end it made his injury far worse.

 

Not entirely sure what point you're trying to make with the WAR.

[bsox0407]

Where did I say a single negative thing about Scutaro? Go find the old post "Who are your favorite Red Sox players" and you will find Scutaro at the top of my list. One of the reasons why I like Lowrie so much is how he fought through the wrist injury in 2008. His results didn't end up all that great, but I got the impression that he had grit, but in the end it made his injury far worse.

 

Not entirely sure what point you're trying to make with the WAR.

 

I didn't mean to say it like that. like you were against Scutaro all the way. i was meaning why not Scutaro. Not like a beef, like you hate him, but against him starting. you know. i apologize it came off like that.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Remember last year in Texas when Lowrie had to leave because of heat exhaustion?

 

I'm still excited to see what he can do next year, but I don't see him as much of a hurdle for Iglesias to jump over before he's the full time SS.

[SoxFanForsyth]

These conversations are so much more enjoyable when you and Dipre agree.

[Palodios]

"The Red Sox view

 

Nowhere in this does this mention a legitimate injury concern. He's going to be tired after having mono, an illness that makes you tired.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Here's what should happen.

 

Lowrie should get a significant amount of playing time, especially vs LHP this year, and also acting as a super utility man for all infield positions. He'll get over 300 AB's if he stays healthy, which is a legitimate sample size.

 

If he continues to perform at a high level, he will transition into either 1. Trade bait, or 2. a super utility/DH in 2012, and Iglesias will be the full time SS.