The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Dojji]

Every player in this entire sport is at risk of injury every time they take the field. I haven't seen any reason to believe Lowrie is at any particularly increased risk anymore. His last 2 "injuries" have been a virus and a pulled muscle and once he got back onto the field from those, he showed no evidence of complications. He's been working as hard as he can all offseason to improve his conditioning, which is the only possible remaining question mark.

 

He's being judged on the basis of one whopper of an injury that struck early in his career and spanned 2 seasons before he got over it. That's patently unfair to Lowrie.

[Palodios]

I didn't mean to say it like that. like you were against Scutaro all the way. i was meaning why not Scutaro. Not like a beef' date=' like you hate him, but against him starting. you know. i apologize it came off like that.[/quote']

 

Yeah, don't worry about it, I'm sorry for losing my cool there for a bit myself.

 

I like Scutaro. But we know what he can do, and he's been a utility guy most of his career. Lowrie is going to hit his prime, and I think I'd prefer to see what he's got. Plus, a big part of this discussion is about who is the SS of the future-- past when Scutaro leaves.

[Dojji]

Here's what should happen.

 

Lowrie should get a significant amount of playing time, especially vs LHP this year, and also acting as a super utility man for all infield positions. He'll get over 300 AB's if he stays healthy, which is a legitimate sample size.

 

If he continues to perform at a high level, he will transition into either 1. Trade bait, or 2. a super utility/DH in 2012, and Iglesias will be the full time SS.

 

There is no reason to relegate Lowrie to platoon substitute duty if he has the talent to be a better starting SS than Scutaro and he is healthy. There is no need to coddle Marco Scutaro in this way. Not only is Scutaro unlikely to outproduce a healthy Lowrie, he has health issues of his own.

 

You play the better player fulltime if he can handle it, and you FREAKING FIND OUT whether Lowrie can handle it or not. There is no reward in playing Scutaro that's worth the risk of typecasting Lowrie into a fulltime bench player when he clearly has the ability to be more than that.

 

MLB don't stand for Mama's Little Boys. You do not wrap a talented player in cotton for fear he might get hurt. You don't do it to players nursing an actual injury, and you definitely don't do it to a player who is fully healthy at this time. If he gets hurt again, you deal with that. The payoff of winding up with one of the best offensive shortstops in a very offensively stunted American League shortstop pool is worth that risk.

[SoxFanForsyth]

In my dreams, Lowrie would put up big numbers this year, as would Ellsbury.

 

Lowrie hitting 14-18 HR, Ellsbury stealing 55-60 bases with an avg of .305.

 

At the end of the season, pair them up with a couple prospects, maybe even Lavarnway, and ship them to LA for a guy named Andre Ethier.

 

Ethier in RF, Kalish in CF, Crawford in LF. Solves our lefty heavy line up, re-sign Ortiz to DH.

[SoxFanForsyth]

There is no reason to relegate Lowrie to platoon substitute duty if he has the talent to be a better starting SS than Scutaro and he is healthy. There is no need to coddle Marco Scutaro in this way. Not only is Scutaro unlikely to outproduce a healthy Lowrie, he has health issues of his own.

 

You play the better player fulltime if he can handle it, and you FREAKING FIND OUT whether Lowrie can handle it or not. There is no reward in playing Scutaro that's worth the risk of typecasting Lowrie into a fulltime bench player when he clearly has the ability to be more than that.

 

I was with you originally.

 

But then what happens when Pedroia, Youk, or Gonzo need a day off?

 

Are we just going to have a revolving door at SS that changes everytime any one of our infielders needs a day off? Obviously Scutaro can handle 2B, but not 3B and not 1B.

 

Our infield needs consistency, it's tough on a team and a manager when you have to make a different line up every day depending on who needs the day off.

 

It would be much more beneficial to have Lowrie play SS or DH vs LHP, and be the utility guy the other days. Listen I would love to see Lowrie as our full time SS, but it's not logical with our roster.

[Dojji]

I was with you originally.

 

But then what happens when Pedroia, Youk, or Gonzo need a day off?

 

Then you do what you usually do. Play the utility man. If Lowrie wins the starting SS job, that guy is probably Scutaro. Who would be the starting SS anyway. Whether Scutaro's at short and Lowrie's swinging all over the place, or the other way around, it's the same bats in the lineup. The issue you're raising here is nonexistent.

 

The only question to ask is when everyone's healthy and rested, which bat between Lowrie and Scutaro you prefer to have in the lineup.

 

I know my answer.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Then you do what you usually do. Play the utility man. If Lowrie wins the starting SS job' date=' that guy is probably Scutaro. Whether Scutaro's at short and Lowrie's swinging all over the place, or the other way around, it's the same bats in the lineup. [b']The issue you're raising here is nonexistent.[/b]

 

Really?

 

Ok. Here's what we're going to tell Lowrie.

 

"Hey Jed. Come on into my office. We need to talk."

"Alright Coach. What's up"

"You're going to be our starting short stop"

"Really?! Alright! Thanks! I really worked hard for this!"

"Well...now don't get ahead of yourself. When Youk or Gonzo needs a day off, you're going to have to sub for them. And when we're facing a tough lefty, you may need to DH for David."

"Um. I thought I was the starting short stop"

"You are. When you're not the utility IF."

 

Somehow, I don't see that going well.

[Dojji]

Because Marco Scutaro is somehow such an amazing shortstop defensively that his preference over Lowrie at SS deserves to be written in pen? By every standard I've looked at, Scutaro is an average shortstop. At best. Believe me, there is nothing Scutaro can do with the ball at short that Jed Lowrie cannot.

 

Furthermore, Scutaro has extensive experience as a utility swingman. there is NO reason why it couldn't be Scutaro playing all over the place as needed. He's done it before too.

[Dipre]

Don't argue with Dojji when he has a boner for a player.

 

 

@Palodios: So durability issues don't apply?

 

They do for Drew, who doesn't have a "specific injury" but rather "durability issues" but not for Lowrie.

[Spudboy]

Ugh.

[SoxSport]

Could be that Lowrie is more valuable for the Red Sox as a backup at SS,3B and 2B than he is as regular SS--considering Scutaro is a decent SS who probably isn't as versatile as Lowrie. Plus Lowrie can come off the bench to platoon as a switch hitter. This will all work itself out in ST. There should be no closed minds here. Good players have a way of forcing themselves into the starting lineup--if they are that good.

[Palodios]

I'd be more than happy to see Lowrie play an average 120 game Drew season.

 

Honestly, I still stand by the belief that he's better off as a utility player. But when the playoffs come, he's who I want at SS.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'd be more than happy to see Lowrie play an average 120 game Drew season.

 

Honestly, I still stand by the belief that he's better off as a utility player. But when the playoffs come, he's who I want at SS.

 

When October rolls around, I think we'll have a clearly defined answer as to who our starting SS is for games when there is hopefully no need for a utility man.

 

I have no doubt that Lowrie should win that role, but over the course of a 162 game season, he's more valuable to the Sox as a utility man playing 100+ games.

[example1]

until I see something more than defensive web gems from Iggy, I'm not making any assumptions.

 

Have you actually seen him at all? I haven't, other than things like the AZFL all-star game and clips here and there.

 

Again, the Sox talent evaluators gave the kid an MLB contract and the reports are all positive. I don't think there's reason to think he'll hit .180.

 

Yes, there is a Mendoza-line-esque number that he could hit that would keep him out of the lineup, but it is lower than it is for most. I'm thinking Alex Cora level (career .652). That's pretty bad offensively.

[SoxFanForsyth]

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13029717

 

I'm sorry. That's so sick.

[yankees228]

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13029717

 

I'm sorry. That's so sick.

 

I have no doubt that he is a wizard defensively, but I think this is an odd choice to try and show that. He does that in very smooth fashion, but I think most shortstops make that play.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's the only highlight that is on MLB.com.

 

He just makes it look so smooth when he does that. That's why it's so sick.

[example1]

I think the Sox (and a few other "moneyball" teams) secretly are putting a $$ premium on defensive abilities, especially at positions of high defensive importance. I wouldn't be shocked to see them make a significant move for a really great defensive catcher in the next year or two. Catcher, SS, CF can all be less-hit, great field positions, especially wth the offense and supplemental defensive players they have at 2B, LF, RF, 1B, etc.,

[Spudboy]

Could be that Lowrie is more valuable for the Red Sox as a backup at SS' date='3B and 2B than he is as regular SS--considering Scutaro is a decent SS who probably isn't as versatile as Lowrie. Plus Lowrie can come off the bench to platoon as a switch hitter. This will all work itself out in ST. There should be no closed minds here. Good players have a way of forcing themselves into the starting lineup--if they are that good.[/quote']

 

How dare you voice common sense.

[Spudboy]

I have no doubt that he is a wizard defensively' date=' but I think this is an odd choice to try and show that. He does that in very smooth fashion, but I think most shortstops make that play.[/quote']

 

Yup.

 

He makes the common or expected play look routine.

 

However, he makes plays few other can make.

 

Just wait.

[Will617]

Really?

 

Ok. Here's what we're going to tell Lowrie.

 

"Hey Jed. Come on into my office. We need to talk."

"Alright Coach. What's up"

"You're going to be our starting short stop"

"Really?! Alright! Thanks! I really worked hard for this!"

"Well...now don't get ahead of yourself. When Youk or Gonzo needs a day off, you're going to have to sub for them. And when we're facing a tough lefty, you may need to DH for David."

"Um. I thought I was the starting short stop"

"You are. When you're not the utility IF."

 

Somehow, I don't see that going well.

 

I don't think this is as big of a deal as you're making it. This is pretty much what Lowrie would be told: "You're the starting SS, but if our other players need a day off, you'll play there, since you can play positions that Scutaro can't." I'm not sure how he would take it badly at all. And he would certainly take it better than, "Sorry, you're not as good as Scutaro, so you're the utility man".

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't think this is as big of a deal as you're making it. This is pretty much what Lowrie would be told: "You're the starting SS' date=' but if our other players need a day off, you'll play there, since you can play positions that Scutaro can't." I'm not sure how he would take it badly at all. And he would certainly take it better than, "Sorry, you're not as good as Scutaro, so you're the utility man".[/quote']

 

It's not "Sorry, you're not as good as Scutaro, so you're the utility man"

 

It's "You're incredibly valuable as the utility man and will see a significant amount of playing time."

 

Over the course of 162 games, with all four starting infielders coming off of different degrees of injury, 3 of which required surgery, Lowrie is going to be incredibly valuable to us.

 

I can see how, if our infield all came off of healthy seasons with no reason to worry about injury, that Lowrie would probably serve better as the starting SS, but in 2011, after what happened in 2010, we have to have someone who can sub in and fill the gap seamlessly for Youk, Pedey, and Gonzo when they need some recovery time.

 

It's just the way our team is in 2011 and Lowrie provides versatility that Scutaro doesn't.

 

Having said that, when the post season arrives, I have no problem having Lowrie as our starting SS, but over the course of 162 games, he needs to fill the gaps.

[DirtDog]

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13029717

 

I'm sorry. That's so sick.

 

LOL I made that play routine in Little League

[SoxFanForsyth]

LOL I made that play routine in Little League

 

You didn't make it look as smooth as Iglesias did.

 

It's not the difficulty of the play. It's how smooth he makes it look.

 

And if you made it look that smooth in little league, why are you sitting on a message board at 9:30 in the morning on a Tuesday?

[Dojji]

Could be that Lowrie is more valuable for the Red Sox as a backup at SS' date='3B and 2B than he is as regular SS--considering Scutaro is a decent SS who probably isn't as versatile as Lowrie. Plus Lowrie can come off the bench to platoon as a switch hitter. This will all work itself out in ST. There should be no closed minds here. Good players have a way of forcing themselves into the starting lineup--if they are that good.[/quote']

 

I could see the sense of this argument if the SS pool wasn't so weak in the AL. With the decline of Jeter and no one else really standing up as an offensive powerhouse shorstop in the AL, we don't have a single proven hitter anywhere in the American League who can threaten an .800 OPS other than Jeter if he bounces back, Alexei Ramirez if he puts it all together -- and Jed Lowrie. I'm gonna sieze that kind of opportunity to have the best hitting SS with both hands if I can.

 

His value as a substitute is overrated. Whether it's Lowrie starting and Scutaro backing up or the other way around, in any situation where a backup is essential both Lowrie and Scoot will be in the lineup. The question in my mind is who ought to sit when everyone's ready to play, and in my mind, if one of Lowrie or Scutaro can play, it needs to be Lowrie until the results on the field show otherwise.

 

Nor is it exactly as if Scutaro is a gold glove shortstop, by all measures he's average all around and his range is a tick below average -- and he's in his mid 30's. We might wind up calling up Iglesias or Navarro on an emergency basis partway through this year anyway if Scutaro plays like i have a hunch he might. Meanwhile Lowrie's defense at SS is all short samples other than 2008, in which he turned in very respectable defensive numbers across the board. I just see no reason to play Scutaro over the guy.

[Will617]

It's not "Sorry, you're not as good as Scutaro, so you're the utility man"

 

It's "You're incredibly valuable as the utility man and will see a significant amount of playing time."

 

Over the course of 162 games, with all four starting infielders coming off of different degrees of injury, 3 of which required surgery, Lowrie is going to be incredibly valuable to us.

 

I'm don't think Lowrie would be more valuable as a utility man, and I definitely don't think he'll perceive being a utility man as the more important job.

Utility men will always produce less than a starting SS, because they play less. I feel it's more important to get as much production for as long as possible, than to worry about Lowrie's feelings when he's asked to move over for a day because he can play the position and Scutaro can't.

And besides, I can't really see any player bitching if Tito asks them to slot over to third for a day. He should be understanding that he's the only one that can sub in for them. There's nothing about Lowrie to suggest that he'd pull an Albert Haynesworth.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I can see it from both sides of the argument, but I think that what is going to happen is that Lowrie will be the full time utility man from the get go. Can he win the SS spot with a hot bat? Sure. We'll see if that happens.

 

So what is Francona's line up going to be on Opening Day?

 

My take -

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Crawford

Gonzalez

Youkilis

Ortiz

Salty

Drew

Scutaro

 

I know - Salty 7 isn't ideal, but I don't think Francona will go Lefty Lefty twice in one line up.

 

Also - Crawford hitting in front of Scutaro, Ellsbury, and Pedroia, with the protection of Gonzo, Youk, and Ortiz behind him? Could be huge.

 

Crawford could be in for a 20 HR, 100 RBI, 40 SB, 100 Runs Scored year.

[bsox0407]

Padres Signed Jorge Cantu.

 

Padres have a pretty good lineup.

 

C- Nick Hundley

1B- Hawpe or Cantu

2B- Orlando Hudson

3B- Chase Headley

SS-Jason Bartlett

LF-Ryan Ludwick

CF- Maybin

RF- Wil Venable or Hawpe.

[Dipre]

I can see it from both sides of the argument, but I think that what is going to happen is that Lowrie will be the full time utility man from the get go. Can he win the SS spot with a hot bat? Sure. We'll see if that happens.

 

So what is Francona's line up going to be on Opening Day?

 

My take -

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Crawford

Gonzalez

Youkilis

Ortiz

Salty

Drew

Scutaro

 

I know - Salty 7 isn't ideal, but I don't think Francona will go Lefty Lefty twice in one line up.

 

Also - Crawford hitting in front of Scutaro, Ellsbury, and Pedroia, with the protection of Gonzo, Youk, and Ortiz behind him? Could be huge.

 

Crawford could be in for a 20 HR, 100 RBI, 40 SB, 100 Runs Scored year.

 

I think Francona should (and probably will) experiment with hitting Ellsbury first and Crawford second, because Ellsbury has no platoon issues. This has double merit since you can argue that the number three hitter should be the "best" hitter in the team, a title that arguably belongs to Pedroia, and a one-two of Ellsbury and Crawford would create many a sweaty night for opposing catchers.

 

As for the Lowrie subject, it amazes me how people keep talking like they know more about the players than the FO does. Wow.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think Francona should (and probably will) experiment with hitting Ellsbury first and Crawford second, because Ellsbury has no platoon issues. This has double merit since you can argue that the number three hitter should be the "best" hitter in the team, a title that arguably belongs to Pedroia, and a one-two of Ellsbury and Crawford would create many a sweaty night for opposing catchers.

 

As for the Lowrie subject, it amazes me how people keep talking like they know more about the players than the FO does. Wow.

 

No doubt that April will see a lot of variations. I have seen the idea of going Ellsbury - Crawford - Pedroia, and have no problem with it.

 

One thing I noticed today that should be interesting to see how it pans out - everyone has been talking about the added protection that Gonzo is going to have. Well, I looked a little deeper into it.

 

Obviously, Gonzo rakes vs RHP. Last year, he hit well vs LHP, but was a combo of his lead shoulder injury making him drive the ball to the opposite field, along with a high BABIP vs LHP.

 

This year, he's going to be hitting in front of Youkilis. Youk had a freaking 1.311 OPS vs LHP last year. That's f***ing insane. There is no way in hell that a LHP is going to walk Gonzo and face Youk with runners on if at all avoidable.

 

I think Gonzo is going to see some primo pitches this year from LHP when he's hitting in front of Youk. I knew Youk raked vs LHP last year, but damn. 1.311 OPS. That's astronomical.