The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Palodios]

I think Red Sox starters simply have better ceilings than the Yankee starters. I also see age being a very significant factor moving forward as Sox players move towards their primes, and Yankees move away from them.

[BSN07]

I think Red Sox starters simply have better ceilings than the Yankee starters. I also see age being a very significant factor moving forward as Sox players move towards their primes' date=' and Yankees move away from them.[/quote']

 

Well that's what I said. Their ceiling is higher, but they aren't a guaranteed thing by any means.

 

I've been hoping the Yankees would show their age for like the past 5 seasons. I know it will eventually happen. But I'm not counting on it happening until it actually does. Every time we start throwing dirt on one of the older guys, they make some miraculous come back

[Dipre]

Well that's what I said. Their ceiling is higher, but they aren't a guaranteed thing by any means.

 

I've been hoping the Yankees would show their age for like the past 5 seasons. I know it will eventually happen. But I'm not counting on it happening until it actually does. Every time we start throwing dirt on one of the older guys, they make some miraculous come back

 

I don't get where you're coming from. The Yankees currently don't have Andy Petitte, so if we're talking about the way the teams look right now, the Red Sox look obviously superior. CC-Hughes-???-???-???.Still fearing the Yanks there BSN?

[italstallianion]

I don't know, with the way that Brian Cashman can add blowjobs to virtually any trade, I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees can swindle any starter from any team.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't get where you're coming from. The Yankees currently don't have Andy Petitte' date=' so if we're talking about the way the teams look right now, the Red Sox look obviously superior. CC-Hughes-???-???-???.Still fearing the Yanks there BSN?[/quote']

 

I'm not sure how you don't understand this. (sarcasm)

 

CC

Hughes (Good for about 85 IP of solid work, then his ERA jumps to over 5.00)

Burnett (the Mark Wohlers of Starting Pitchers)

Nova (Never thrown 150 IP in a season)

Mitre (Threw over 150 IP once. In 2002. In A ball)

 

Sure, they have a good bullpen. But with 2 pitchers who have never thrown over 150 IP, a young guy in Hughes who averaged 6 IP last year in 29 starts and, by the way, didn't reach a full 7IP one time after the ASB, and AJ Burnett, who averaged 5.2IP per outing?

 

That bullpen is going to be taxed by late July/early August and is going to be full of wet noodles when the games start to really matter.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't know' date=' with the way that Brian Cashman can add blowjobs to virtually any trade, I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees can swindle any starter from any team.[/quote']

 

You know they want Felix and Josh Johnson so bad they can't stand it. Felix has a no trade clause that includes the Yankees, so he will have Cashman and the FO's balls wound so tightly he can do whatever he wants. If a trade is agreed upon, he will require an AAV of 26-28mm to waive the No Trade Clause. And he would probably get it.

 

But regardless, neither of these guys are on the block by any means. I can see maybe Buehrle, Wandy, Carmona.

 

If I had to bet - I'd put my money on Johan. It's basically a perfect scenario. Mets dumping salary, Yankees looking for a strong LHP, he'd have a half a season to heal. I can see that.

[Palodios]

I wouldn't put it past Hughes to be a serviceable #2. Maybe you don't remember it, but the three elite pitchers at the beginning of 2010 were Price, Buchholz and Hughes-- Hughes was having an amazing first half. He's still young, and he has a good chance to figure it out. That being said, I'd take Buchholz over him any day of the week.

[BSN07]

I don't get where you're coming from. The Yankees currently don't have Andy Petitte' date=' so if we're talking about the way the teams look right now, the Red Sox look obviously superior. CC-Hughes-???-???-???.Still fearing the Yanks there BSN?[/quote']

 

No Dipre, just being reasonable. The Yankees and Red Sox both have an Ace, A young up and comer, and 2 ? marks at the back end of the rotation. Albeit Boston's ? marks have much more upside. So like I said by my count the Sox are 1 up in the SP department as it stands right now with Lackey in the fold and Pettitte at home doing his best Favre impersonation.

 

I don't see how that's not a reasonable evaluation of things.

[diony]

Sox have a huge, huge advantage in SP, and have a better line up.

 

A homer like you would never think of the possibility that Beckett, Dice-K and Lackey could suck again.

 

Lineups? The only noticeable advantage is A-Gon, Crawford and Youk at their respective positions. Don't forget about the black hole you guys have at C and your question mark CF. As I said, it's even.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I don't think he ever stated that Beckett, Dice-K, or Lackey can't suck again. You're putting words in his mouth. I see you're trying to change the original conversation which was the Sox have the better rotation. It really isn't close and I don't see how you can argue that. The lineup part is debateable.

 

If anyone here is a homer that would be you sir.

[Palodios]

Any excessive criticism on Lackey is just silly. He's not an ace. Oh well. He was 8th in QS, 15th in WAR, 8th in IP. That kind of consistency for a #3/#4 starter on an elite hitting team wins ball games.

[diony]

I don't think he ever stated that Beckett' date=' Dice-K, or Lackey can't suck again. You're putting words in his mouth. I see you're trying to change the original conversation which was the [b']Sox have the better rotation[/b]. It really isn't close and I don't see how you can argue that. The lineup part is debateable.

 

I could understand if he had said that. But he said...

 

Sox have a huge, huge advantage in SP, and have a better line up.

 

Even if I were a Pirates fan, I'd disagree with that.

[italstallianion]

Don't forget that the Yankees have Bartolo Colon and Mark Prior.

[diony]

I think Red Sox starters simply have better ceilings than the Yankee starters. I also see age being a very significant factor moving forward as Sox players move towards their primes' date=' and Yankees move away from them.[/quote']

The Yankees starting lineup average age is 31.00, the Red Sox is 30.22. Replacing Posada with Montero next season give us an edge. Don't know what your talking about. Cano, Teix, Swish and Granderson are moving past their primes? at age 30-? Wow.

[arbitrary]

What's the median age? Averages are easily skewed by extremes.

[Palodios]

The Yankees starting lineup average age is 31.00' date=' the Red Sox is 30.22. Replacing Posada with Montero next season give us an edge. Don't know what your talking about. Cano, Teix, Swish and Granderson are moving past their primes? at age 30-? Wow.[/quote']

 

Starting lineup average age? That doesn't give a good grasp of the big picture at all.

 

I'd rather have my corner OF, DH, backup C and mopup pitcher get older than my SS, 3B, closer, #3 starter, and potential #2 starter. Age will hurt the Yankees more than it will hurt the Sox.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't see how you can possibly say that the Sox don't have an incredibly significant, aka huge, advantage in the SP.

 

Last year, the Sox SP posted a 4.17 ERA, and that was with Wakefield starting 19 games.

 

Last year, the Yankees SP posted a 4.35 ERA, and that was with Pettitte posting a 3.28 ERA. Now you don't have that luxury.

 

In all starts by pitchers not named Andy Pettite, the Yankees posted a 4.51 ERA

In all starts by pitchers not named Tim Wakefield, the Red Sox posted a 3.97 ERA

 

A 0.54 difference in ERA is a huge advantage.

[Divinity]

Starting lineup average age? That doesn't give a good grasp of the big picture at all.

 

I'd rather have my corner OF, DH, backup C and mopup pitcher get older than my SS, 3B, closer, #3 starter, and potential #2 starter. Age will hurt the Yankees more than it will hurt the Sox.

 

Rivera is immortal, age doesn't affect him. Its only a matter of time before Jeter becomes a corner OF and A Rod the DH. They'll also land a high quality SP from another team sooner or later.

[Palodios]

Its only matter of time before Rivera declines enough to be considered only an elite-level closer.

 

Strange... that sounded like a taunt in my head.

[diony]

What's the median age? Averages are easily skewed by extremes.

 

In this case, Posada.

[arbitrary]

In this case' date=' Posada.[/quote']

 

Wakefield has him beat by 5 years. But it doesn't prove your point about the Yankees age. It really just shows that 'average' is a lame statistic when comparing age. For the record, I really don't care about who is the younger team.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't see how you can possibly say that the Sox don't have an incredibly significant, aka huge, advantage in the SP.

 

Last year, the Sox SP posted a 4.17 ERA, and that was with Wakefield starting 19 games.

 

Last year, the Yankees SP posted a 4.35 ERA, and that was with Pettitte posting a 3.28 ERA. Now you don't have that luxury.

 

In all starts by pitchers not named Andy Pettite, the Yankees posted a 4.51 ERA

In all starts by pitchers not named Tim Wakefield, the Red Sox posted a 3.97 ERA

 

A 0.54 difference in ERA is a huge advantage.

 

Pettitte looks to be coming back...

We dont have Javy Vazquez anymore...

AJ Burnett will not have a 5+ERA again...

Phil Hughes is another year wiser and stronger...

 

The sox have an advantage, a huge one if the Pettitte rumors turn out to be false and he stays home. But it's not as big as you surmise if he does return. Now, things can change. Especially if Beckett and Lackey bounce back to sub 4ERA pitchers. But assuming Pettitte comes back, my guess is the Yankee starters are about 100IP short compared to your starters and will have a 0.20 deficit in ERA

[SoxFanForsyth]

I honestly think Pettitte is going to pull a Clemens and come back half way through the season.

 

And to be fair, if you're going to assume that Burnett bounces back, you have to assume that Beckett will bounce back as well. Physical problems are much easier to accommodate than mental problems.

 

Either way - The difference in ERA was comparing the teams as constructed right now. If Pettitte comes back, the Sox still have an advantage in SP, but it's not nearly as significant.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree there. Without Pettitte, the sox make their hay in the #2, #4, and #5 spots. Move Pettitte up into the #2 spot and CC-Pettitte compare favorably with Lester-Buchholz and Hughes-Burnett-Nova compare favorably albeit a bit down compared to the sox back end. I also think Nova is going to be very solid this season, ERA mid 4s and 150-170IP.

[a700hitter]

I don't think Pettitte will pitch more than 130 innings, nor win 10 games. That will not be enough to lift the Yankee Staff.

[DirtDog]

Pretty naive to think an injury won't happen somewhere for the Sox this year, even though it seems liek we got it all out of our system last year. I see Wakefield will start a good amount of games. I could see Beckett or Dice-K falling apart. Wakefield will get his run this year in the rotation.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Lets say Beimel signs with the Sox. On a scale from 1-10 how pleased would you be?

[a700hitter]

Pretty naive to think an injury won't happen somewhere for the Sox this year' date=' even though it seems liek we got it all out of our system last year. I see Wakefield will start a good amount of games. I could see Beckett or Dice-K falling apart. Wakefield will get his run this year in the rotation.[/quote']I just don't think Wakefield can perform anymore.

[BSN07]

Lets say Beimel signs with the Sox. On a scale from 1-10 how pleased would you be?

 

5

[SoxFanForsyth]

Pretty naive to think an injury won't happen somewhere for the Sox this year' date=' even though it seems liek we got it all out of our system last year. I see Wakefield will start a good amount of games. I could see Beckett or Dice-K falling apart. Wakefield will get his run this year in the rotation.[/quote']

 

Doubront needs to start ahead of Wakefield in this scenario. I'd much rather see 1. a young guy get some big league experience, and 2. another lefty in our rotation than to see Wakefield get lit up and win 4 times in 19 tries.