The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Jenks is right in the head, he's a dynamite option. If he isnt, then he could be a serious problem on a 2 yr deal. His stuff is so good that he's worth the risk.

[Cocos Disciples]

I wouldn't trade Papelbon. He's obviously not at his highest value, and the bullpen isn't a strength to be dealing from. Keep him for 2011, then let him go and get the picks.

[Dipre]

Now sign a lefty reliever, make a couple more depth signings (some s***** BP arms, and journeyman infielder and catcher) and /offseason.

[Palodios]

2/12 for Jenks? Peripherals be damned, how is that better than any of the 3/12 deals the other guys got?

[CoachC.]

Years.

[TheKilo]

I just said it in the other thread, but Jenks is the best reliever deal of the offseason. Dupree outlined his peripherals but they're actually GETTING BETTER every year.

 

 

SO much better than going three years on Guerrier or Benoit.

[italstallianion]

Now sign a lefty reliever' date=' make a couple more depth signings (some s***** BP arms, and journeyman infielder and catcher) and /offseason.[/quote']

 

 

We already signed a bunch of s***** bullpen arms. I'd be content enough with a lefty reliever and a RH bat. Get me Fuentes and Darnell McDonald and I'll never say a bad thing about Theo until the trade deadline.

[Dipre]

Palodios, Jenks is a superior reliever to any of the RH relievers that have signed for three years thus far. Not only do his peripherals show that, but remember that he wasn't pampered with lefty/righty matchups or brought into the seventh inning of blowouts. He was a successful closer who ran into a bout of bad luck last year.

 

I'll say it again, years in contracts of relief pitchers matter, because you don't want to find yourself contending with multiple years of sunk cost.

[yeszir]

I didn't realize that Jenks was so fat. El Guapo #2?

[italstallianion]

He's not quite Bartolo Colon fat though.

[Palodios]

Palodios, Jenks is a superior reliever to any of the RH relievers that have signed for three years thus far. Not only do his peripherals show that, but remember that he wasn't pampered with lefty/righty matchups or brought into the seventh inning of blowouts. He was a successful closer who ran into a bout of bad luck last year.

 

I'll say it again, years in contracts of relief pitchers matter, because you don't want to find yourself contending with multiple years of sunk cost.

 

This team was much more desperate for a LHP than a RHP, and Downs was a much safer bet. Downs was much much closer to a sure thing. It definitely seems like they're overpaying here-- is Jenks really worth the highest AAV so far this offseason for a reliever?

[Dipre]

This team was much more desperate for a LHP than a RHP' date=' and Downs was a much safer bet. Downs was much much closer to a sure thing. It definitely seems like they're overpaying here-- is Jenks really worth the highest AAV so far this offseason for a reliever?[/quote']

 

Yes he is. Specially if you overpay .5 million (relative to Benoit's contract) for one less year. This team was desperate for a quality reliever, handedness aside. Jenks is a RHP that can get both righties and lefties out:

 

Career OPS vs righties: .661

 

Career OPS vs lefties: .617

 

2010 OPS vs righties: .689

 

2010 OPS vs lefties: .648

 

Hell, he has a reverse split.

 

In fact, lefties have a lower career OPS vs Jenks than vs Downs .631 to .617.

 

You can point to Down's 2010 .448 OPS vs lefties, and i would buy it except for that unsustainable .175 BABIP.

 

Not to mention, they can still get a quality lefty. Bitching about this move seems ridiculous to me.

[italstallianion]

I'm not bitching about this move for the record. It wasn't exactly what I wanted, but I'm ok with it. I just want that last lefty, which at this point I'm sure we'd get, although I highly doubt it would be Fuentes. Granted, I'm not very high on Atchison, but with Bard, Papelbon, Jenks, Doubront, and a serviceable lefty, that'd make our bullpen good despite having Atchison and Wakefield as the other 2 spots. I'm not saying that Atchison is as bad as Wakefield, but there are many options I'd rather go with depending on the money.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Love the Jenks signing. BABIP was .354 last year, I bet that comes down and he's a low-to-mid 3's MR. Also has better peripherals than even Bard.

[Palodios]

Blame Bartolo Colon and Boof Bonser, but pitchers of his size concern me, especially coming off a season of very mediocre ERA. But hey, he's better than Schoenweiss or MDC.

[Dipre]

And that's why you don't use ERA as the be-all, end-all indicator of a pitcher's effectiveness....

[CoachC.]

Buster:

 

Heard this: Brian Fuentes is looking for a Scott Downs kind of deal -- the range of three years, $15 million.

[italstallianion]

I figure that he'd want more money considering that the team doesn't have to give up a draft pick to sign him.

[italstallianion]

OPSa vs. LHH/RHH

 

Jenks - 648/689 (2010), 687/652 (2008-2010)

 

Bard - 462/627 (2010), 613/590 (2009-2010)

 

Paps - 717/619 (2010), 633/588 (2008-2010)

 

7+ inning starts in 2010:

 

Lackey - 18 of his 33 starts

Lester - 16 of his 32 starts

Buchholz - 13 of his 28 starts

Matsuzaka - 6 of his 25 starts

Beckett - 8 of his 21 starts

Wakefield - 7 of his 19 starts

All others - 0 of their 4 starts (Doubront (3), Atchison (1))

 

In other words, in 68 of our 162 games, we would not have needed any middle relief. With our starting pitching, this will shorten up a lot of games.

[WhiskeyBreath]

I like the Jenks signing as long they didn't sign him to replace Papelbon this season.

[CoachC.]

I like the Jenks signing as long they didn't sign him to replace Papelbon this season.

 

Why would they do that? Bard is already the successor in waiting. He's simply the set up man to the set up man.

[Dojji]

Or maybe he's the formal setup man, and use Bardo as the "relief ace."

[CoachC.]

From Edes:

 

Source: Red Sox agree to terms with LHP Andrew Miller

[Dojji]

Well that's it then, I guess they're counting on Doubront to take a step forward? Or is Miller just "in the mix?"

[TheKilo]

Blame Bartolo Colon and Boof Bonser' date=' but pitchers of his size concern me, especially coming off a season of very mediocre ERA. But hey, he's better than Schoenweiss or MDC.[/quote']

 

Because that makes so much sense...

[Palodios]

And that's why you don't use ERA as the be-all' date=' end-all indicator of a pitcher's effectiveness....[/quote']

 

Please stop trying to show me up on every single post please. He's an overweight pitcher whose results have declined over the past two years.

[TheKilo]

What? His performance has gotten better! He has similar peripheral stats to Bard.

[Dipre]

Please stop trying to show me up on every single post please. He's an overweight pitcher whose results have declined over the past two years.

 

Lol ok.

 

Ignore peripherals and overall numbers and let's focus on the fact he's overweight.

 

I'm giddy now because i'm sure CC Sabathia is going to suck ass next year. He is fat after all.

[CoachC.]

Please stop trying to show me up on every single post please. He's an overweight pitcher whose results have declined over the past two years.

 

He had his best K rate yet last year.

[BSN07]

Please stop trying to show me up on every single post please. He's an overweight pitcher whose results have declined over the past two years.

 

When you make statements like this, it's going to be hard for someone not to correct you.