The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[jacksonianmarch]

I guessed the rest of this post as soon as i read the first line.

 

Funny how now you decide to admit V-Mart's a better hitter than Posada.

 

Anyone got the chart handy?

 

He surpassed him this season. Look at the stats...

 

Posada OPS

2006- .866

2007- .969

2008- .775 (injured)

2009- .885

2010- .811

 

VMart OPS

2006- .856

2007- .879

2008- .702 (injured)

2009- .861

2010- .844

 

This was the first season he was better in terms of OPS than Posada, so hence why he has surpassed him. It's simple logic Dipre, you should try it sometime

[Dipre]

He surpassed him this season. Look at the stats...

 

Posada OPS

2006- .866

2007- .969

2008- .775 (injured)

2009- .885

2010- .811

 

VMart OPS

2006- .856

2007- .879

2008- .702 (injured)

2009- .861

2010- .844

 

This was the first season he was better in terms of OPS than Posada, so hence why he has surpassed him. It's simple logic Dipre, you should try it sometime

 

And because of that .030 difference in OPS (which is not the reason V-Mart was a better hitter than Posada anyway) you're trying to sell us the fact that he may see himself as an 18 mill player, limiting the chances of him re-signing. Dude, just like in your Beckett assessment, simple logic not only eludes you, you do every possible effort to crush it. No team in their right mind is going to massively overpay Martinez, because, you know, they use simple logic, and the same problems that you have mentioned about Martinez (and, well, every other Red Sox player ever) is something every other team is well-aware about.

 

Be consistent. Your initial assessment was fair. Don't screw it up with your usual dose of bias.

[a700hitter]

Whether or not to resign VMart is certainly going to be one of the most critical off season FO decisions. I just don't have a good handle on his value to the team. I'm not talking $ value. Does he make the Sox a better team? I'm just not sure. It's great to have a bat like his at the catcher position, but how much of a negative is he defensively. How many more runs does the pitching staff give up when he is behind the plate? I don't put a lot of stock in WAR. I don't discount it when comparing players to each other, but I do firmly believe that when you have the right combination of players the whole will be greater than the sum of its parts.

[Dipre]

Whether or not to resign VMart is certainly going to be one of the most critical off season FO decisions. I just don't have a good handle on his value to the team. I'm not talking $ value. Does he make the Sox a better team? I'm just not sure. It's great to have a bat like his at the catcher position' date=' but how much of a negative is he defensively. How many more runs does the pitching staff give up when he is behind the plate? I don't put a lot of stock in WAR. I don't discount it when comparing players to each other, but I do firmly believe that when you have the right combination of players the whole will be greater than the sum of its parts.[/quote']

 

The problem in this case is: What's the alternative?

 

And for the love of God, don't tell me it's Salty.

[BSN07]

Posada is a fair comparison. Yes the contract is probably inflated because of the "Yankee" factor. But with the amount of interest Martinez should garner it should push the deal right up there.

 

I don't know what it is but I just get the feeling some GM is going to offer 5 years and The Sox won't match. I believe ideally they want a 3 year deal, but will probably go to 4. 5 is very iffy IMO. I'm sure Martinez agency was disappointed when Omar got the Axe in Queens. They were almost guaranteed a 5 year offer from him

[example1]

You dont hold your chips for Pujols. You react if Pujols doesnt sign with StL. I definitely think every team in baseball will drop everything to at least toy with the idea of adding the most dangerous hitter of our time. Even the Yanks who have 3b and 1b locked up long term and probably need to keep that DH spot open.

 

What do you mean "drop everything"? What precedent can you cite for this? Teams that just stop paying the contracts they've agreed to? Forget about the cost/benefit of the acquisition? I don't think so. Only in rosy YankeeLand is free agency like that. Pujols isn't worth any cost. He actually nets the team some amount of money. He can be quantified.

 

Teams simply don't find themselves able to "drop everything" and shell out $30m for one player. It just doesn't happen. Historically there are two contracts that really even approach that $$, Roger Clemens (Yankees) and Alex Rodriguez (Yankees). Generally there is only one team that can drop 30m without planning for it. That's more than half of what the Rays hope to pay for their entire team every year, and would be more than 25% of most teams in baseball.

[Palodios]

What do you mean "drop everything"? What precedent can you cite for this? Teams that just stop paying the contracts they've agreed to? Forget about the cost/benefit of the acquisition? I don't think so. Only in rosy YankeeLand is free agency like that. Pujols isn't worth any cost. He actually nets the team some amount of money. He can be quantified.

 

The four years prior to Ryan Howard's contract, he averaged a 4.6 WAR. Howard got a 5/125 million per year deal. Texeira had a 5.1 WAR the five years before his 8/180 contract. Over his ten year career, Pujols has averaged a 8.0 WAR, and is very possibly the best hitter in the majors. He is as much a safe bet as you will find. He will very easily get 30 per year.

[BSN07]

What do you mean "drop everything"? What precedent can you cite for this? Teams that just stop paying the contracts they've agreed to? Forget about the cost/benefit of the acquisition? I don't think so. Only in rosy YankeeLand is free agency like that. Pujols isn't worth any cost. He actually nets the team some amount of money. He can be quantified.

 

Teams simply don't find themselves able to "drop everything" and shell out $30m for one player. It just doesn't happen. Historically there are two contracts that really even approach that $$, Roger Clemens (Yankees) and Alex Rodriguez (Yankees). Generally there is only one team that can drop 30m without planning for it. That's more than half of what the Rays hope to pay for their entire team every year, and would be more than 25% of most teams in baseball.

 

I believe he meant drop everything as in the FO total focus would be on the possibility of obtaining Pujols for a measurable duration of time and nothing else, like other FA negotiations, ongoing trade talk. I don't think he meant they can just drop all their commitments financially and pursue Pujols.

[Dojji]

I'd need convincing that any one athlete should be paid an AAV of more than half the payroll of one of the league's lowest salary teams.

[Palodios]

Low salary teams who profit off of their own mediocrity do not have a say in what market values are for players.

[a700hitter]

The problem in this case is: What's the alternative?

 

And for the love of God, don't tell me it's Salty.

LOL!!! I would never suggest Salty. He's a bust.

[example1]

The four years prior to Ryan Howard's contract' date=' he averaged a 4.6 WAR. Howard got a 5/125 million per year deal. Texeira had a 5.1 WAR the five years before his 8/180 contract. Over his ten year career, Pujols has averaged a 8.0 WAR, and is very possibly the best hitter in the majors. He is as much a safe bet as you will find. He will very easily get 30 per year.[/quote']

 

Exactly, so how many teams can "drop everything" and focus on getting him? For most teams the idea of Albert Pujols coming there is remote if not impossible. Is Pujols going to leave St. Louis for Kansas City? Tampa Bay? Cincinatti? Milwaukee? The list goes on. There are a select few teams that would be reasonable suitors, and of those only a few would be prepared to take that much salary on for one player.

 

St. Louis is probably going to be one of those teams, but we will need to see. How much will they push the hometown loyalty on him? To the tune of $2-3m year? Will they clearly surpass A-Rod's contract, if that's what he wants? I simply don't know, and don't pretend to.

 

I think he is warranted a $30m salary, but to any team prepared to drop that much it will impact where they can spend money elsewhere. All GMs are undoubtedly aware of that and those financial limitations are signficant for most teams. The Red Sox have it better than most, and yet they easily threaten the luxury tax threshold seemingly every year. In a free agency period when Fielder and Gonzalez are probably targets from years away, I wouldn't fault them for reserving a bit extra for the Rolls Royce in Pujols if he and St. Louis part ways.

[jacksonianmarch]

The list is going to be longer than you think example, even in these economic times. Bringing Pujols into the fold would instantly legitimize the franchise and also add an infusion of fan interest the likes of which hadnt been seen before. The entirety of the AL East sans TB (their fans dont even show up for playoff teams when the tix are free!) would be in on him. The AL Central sans Cleveland and KC would be in on him. The AL West sans Oakland would be in on him. The NL East sans the Marlins would be in on him. The NL Central sans the Brewers and the Pirates would be in on him. And the NL West sans SD would be in on him. That's 8 teams out of it due to financial constraints and 22 teams that are in the running. I will guarantee you that if he hits the market, every one of those teams surpasses 25 mil per season and the winning bid would be in the $31-35 mil range

[Dipre]

The list is going to be longer than you think example' date=' even in these economic times. Bringing Pujols into the fold would instantly legitimize the franchise and also add an infusion of fan interest the likes of which hadnt been seen before. The entirety of the AL East sans TB (their fans dont even show up for playoff teams when the tix are free!) would be in on him. The AL Central sans Cleveland and KC would be in on him. The AL West sans Oakland would be in on him. The NL East sans the Marlins would be in on him. The NL Central sans the Brewers and the Pirates would be in on him. And the NL West sans SD would be in on him. That's 8 teams out of it due to financial constraints and 22 teams that are in the running. I will guarantee you that if he hits the market, every one of those teams surpasses 25 mil per season and the winning bid would be in the $31-35 mil range[/quote']

 

While i agree with the basic premise that a lot of teams would be in on Pujols, i find the idea that 22 teams would be able to submit bids of 25 million of more for him on the unrealistic side. Teams have financial limits which they wouldn't be able to overcome by signing the guy.

[Dojji]

Of the teams you have "in it" the following teams either lack the financial clout or have a 1B solid enough that the upgrade isn't worth the expense when they have problems to solve in other areas of the game:

 

Minnesota (Morneau)

Detroit (Cabrera)

Philidelphia (Howard)

LAA (Morales)

Seattle (Money constraints)

Colorado (Helton's contract is up so they might climb in but they have young players to re-sign)

Cincinatti (Votto)

SFG (they have some contracts to clear before they could make a move like that)

 

 

The following teams are the ones I'd consider serious enough contenders to worry about in a potential Pujols race.

 

St. Louis

Toronto

Texas

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chicago Cubs

Chicago White Sox

New York Mets

Houston

Baltimore

Washington

Atlanta

[jacksonianmarch]

And because of that .030 difference in OPS (which is not the reason V-Mart was a better hitter than Posada anyway) you're trying to sell us the fact that he may see himself as an 18 mill player, limiting the chances of him re-signing. Dude, just like in your Beckett assessment, simple logic not only eludes you, you do every possible effort to crush it. No team in their right mind is going to massively overpay Martinez, because, you know, they use simple logic, and the same problems that you have mentioned about Martinez (and, well, every other Red Sox player ever) is something every other team is well-aware about.

 

Be consistent. Your initial assessment was fair. Don't screw it up with your usual dose of bias.

 

My initial assessment was that he would get Posada money, which is still very realistic. But as any economist can tell you, the market changes. And when it comes to elite level offensive catchers, Joe Mauer set the market with his $23 mil a yr deal. Now, VMart isnt Mauer on either side of the ball, but right now he is the next one behind Mauer in terms of offensive catchers. If you think Mauer's deal has no impact on negotations, then you're just not much of a businessman. Now, the impact might not turn into money, but it might turn into more high powered negotiations and a drawn out process, etc. Regardless, Posada money would be fair since I think they are closer in terms of their production, switch hit ability and abysmal defense. But Mauer's contract may have changed the game a little.

[Dipre]

The impact is not likely to translate itself into a $5 million AAV increase, because, as you said yourself, Martinez is horrible defensively, older, and really not geared towards being a full-time catcher. I don't need to be a businessman to know this, but i know that teams place a certain value on every aspect of a player's skillset, and that translates into money. In V-Mart's case, chances are it's not going to translate into anything more than 13 mill per year. The problem, IMO, isn't AAV, but rather the amount of years, that's the part where one team may end up shooting themselves in the foot. Anything more than 4 years will become an albatross at the back-end of the contract.

[NateGrey]

GET CLIFF "f***ING" LEE !!

 

1. lee

2. lester

3. buchholz

4. lackey

5. beckett

 

 

1. ellsbury

2. pedroia

3. vmart

4. konerko

5. ortiz

6. youk

7. drew

8. lowrie

9. kalish

 

 

[example1]

Can't say I disagree with Lee. He is one of a few pitchers who is truly at another level. He makes it look so f***ing easy, paints the corners with all of his pitches, and uses the top of the zone as well as anyone with his velocity that I can remember since Maddux. He's really impressive to watch.

 

Not only are his command and stuff absolutely filthy, but he has also mastered the ability to set hitters up and execute to get them out. Masterful.

 

I wouldn't be pissed off if the Sox said that they had to prevent him from going to NY and went all in. It would be a kamakazi kind of move, but selfishly I think he would be fun to watch for the next 3-4 seasons. After that I'm not so sure.

 

The following teams are the ones I'd consider serious enough contenders to worry about in a potential Pujols race.

 

St. Louis

Toronto

Texas

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chicago Cubs

Chicago White Sox

New York Mets

Houston

Baltimore

Washington

Atlanta

 

Thanks for doing that Dojji. I think that's a pretty good list. I am hesitant about with a few of them, but the list really just provides a structure for the larger discussion we were having.

[example1]

I definitely think every team in baseball will drop everything to at least toy with the idea of adding the most dangerous hitter of our time.

 

The list is going to be longer than you think example' date=' even in these economic times.[/quote']

 

 

I think the list to sign Pujols is comprised of all the teams on the list to sign Gonzalez and the list to sign Fielder, minus the ones who wouldn't be willing or able to pay the extra 50%. It's not a very big list.

[Dojji]

I am of the VERY firm belief that Albert Pujols, if he leaves the Cardinals, will become a Met in short order.

[Dipre]

I am of the VERY firm belief that Albert Pujols' date=' if he leaves the Cardinals, will become a Met in short order.[/quote']

 

But would he want to play in that stadium? And, if he values winning as much as he says, for that franchise?

[a700hitter]

I am of the VERY firm belief that Albert Pujols' date=' if he leaves the Cardinals, will become a Met in short order.[/quote']

The Mets don't have the money.

[Interestedobserver]

After 2011, the Mets have fifty million coming off the books. If they wanted Pujols, they could sign him. As for winning, any team that adds a Pujols looks pretty good to me. Plus Ike Davis could either move to right where they could use his cannon for an arm, or bring back a nice return in trade. That said, I don't know if the Mets would go all out for Pujols.

[BSN07]

I wonder how much revenue due to increased ticket sales would bring in for an organization that typically doesn't sell out every night. I would have to imagine any team bringing in Pujols could expect a fairly packed house every night at home. I think a case could be made for a tam like KC to ante up and bring a player like AP in. I mean he's a home town guy. He instantly legitimizes your franchise. FA now won't look at KC as being exiled. Instead getting to play with the greatest player in the league.

 

Not saying it's likely. Just we may see some surprises as to who would offer AP a deal. I think it would be awesome to see him become a FA. Well as long as the Yanks don't sign him

[jacksonianmarch]

BSN, there are certain cities that have just given up on baseball. Case in point, the Rays team in Tampa had the best record in all of baseball and couldnt fill up half their stadium down the stretch.

[Dipre]

After 2011' date=' the Mets have fifty million coming off the books. If they wanted Pujols, they could sign him. As for winning, any team that adds a Pujols looks pretty good to me. Plus Ike Davis could either move to right where they could use his cannon for an arm, or bring back a nice return in trade. That said, I don't know if the Mets would go all out for Pujols.[/quote']

 

One player doesn't make a team an automatic contender, no matter how good he is, not even Pujols, and that is specially true if said team has more question marks (specially in the pitching department) than Lady Gaga's gender.

[a700hitter]

After 2011' date=' the Mets have fifty million coming off the books. If they wanted Pujols, they could sign him. As for winning, any team that adds a Pujols looks pretty good to me. Plus Ike Davis could either move to right where they could use his cannon for an arm, or bring back a nice return in trade. That said, I don't know if the Mets would go all out for Pujols.[/quote']They have big debt problems. Yes, they have money coming off their payroll, and lots of it is going to stay off their payroll. They had problems meeting payroll in the last two years.

[Northern Star]

After 2011' date=' the Mets have fifty million coming off the books. If they wanted Pujols, they could sign him. As for winning, any team that adds a Pujols looks pretty good to me. Plus Ike Davis could either move to right where they could use his cannon for an arm, or bring back a nice return in trade. That said, I don't know if the Mets would go all out for Pujols.[/quote']

 

Ike's defense at 1B > his lack of speed in OF

[Virgil Stallcup]

Can't say I disagree with Lee. He is one of a few pitchers who is truly at another level. He makes it look so f***ing easy, paints the corners with all of his pitches, and uses the top of the zone as well as anyone with his velocity that I can remember since Maddux. He's really impressive to watch.

 

 

The use of the curve he showed against the Rays was genius. They did an interview with him down here and he explained he threw it more in this game because he felt he had strong command of it during the warmups.

 

Not only is he a pitcher with great ability. He's also someone who has a feel for what will work well for him before a game and uses it to his strategic advantage. Some guys will stay in the same box and pitch the same way regardless of the command they have with certain pitches. What makes Lee special is that you simply can't get a good read on him from one night to the next. He's just not the same pitcher you faced before.

 

What a weapon to have in the arsenal!