The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[example1]

I think a big question for the off season is how high the Sox are willing to go to get the better available relievers. I would have to imagine they are still interested in Downs, and Benoit has been dominant. Are they willing to drop serious FA money to beef up the pen? How much for a short inning reliever who isn't hired to close or even set up.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think a big question for the off season is how high the Sox are willing to go to get the better available relievers. I would have to imagine they are still interested in Downs' date=' and Benoit has been dominant. Are they willing to drop serious FA money to beef up the pen? How much for a short inning reliever who isn't hired to close or even set up.[/quote']

 

That will be a huge questionmark. There are tons of relievers out there and I can guarantee the sox will be kicking the tires. But the best reliever, IMO (Downs), will cost a first round pick. Sufficed to say, I dont think the sox will be going after him.

[a700hitter]

I don't think there is any question that the Sox will be looking to pick up two top FA bullpen arms. The question isn't whether they will be willing to spend the money. The question will be whether the top guys will be willing to take a job as a 7th or 8th inning guy or whether they will be looking to be closers.

[BSN07]

That will be a huge questionmark. There are tons of relievers out there and I can guarantee the sox will be kicking the tires. But the best reliever' date=' IMO (Downs), will cost a first round pick. Sufficed to say, I dont think the sox will be going after him.[/quote']

 

Who is higher ranked Werth/Crawford or Downs? I believe it's one of the other two. If that is the case and the Sox sign one f them the Downs won't cost a 1st round pick. Similar to the Scuataro signing last year. When he was signed it was going to coast a 1st rounder and the deal looked a little more iffy. Then Lackey was signed and Scutaro only cost a supplemental, thus making the deal better.

[BSN07]

Here's a trade scenario for everyone to kick around,

 

SD gets Grienke

Boston gets Agon

KC get's some assortment of prospects

 

Yes there could very well be other moving parts in a deal such as this(Ellsbury for example, and I'm sure there would be $ going somewhere). But as a base package idea what does everyone think?

[Dojji]

That would be some assortment of prospects. Anyway, the weak link there is that SD is looking for a reset in the very near future and probably isn't keen to trade a veteran for a veteran, and even if they were they'd prefer a veteran hitter.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not happening. SD needs offense and Greinke gives them more of what they have.

 

In terms of SD needing a "reset", that already occured when they dealt away Peavy. Their team was young and talented this past yr, and I guarantee you that when AdGon is dealt, the return will be ridiculous. They are an interesting franchise to watch. Their young pitching is very talented, but they are incredibly thin in the offensive ranks, especially with their most recent and best pick (Tate) being injured and being a HSer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Who is higher ranked Werth/Crawford or Downs? I believe it's one of the other two. If that is the case and the Sox sign one f them the Downs won't cost a 1st round pick. Similar to the Scuataro signing last year. When he was signed it was going to coast a 1st rounder and the deal looked a little more iffy. Then Lackey was signed and Scutaro only cost a supplemental' date=' thus making the deal better.[/quote']

 

the sox had some picks coming to them with Bay leaving, so they had the luxury to go out and sign guys. They might have the same luxury if they lose Beltre and/or VMart. But if they do what they say they are going to try and do (resign VMart and Beltre) then the sox will most likely NOT be going in on Werth or Crawford and most likely not be going in on Downs if it costs them a 1st rounder.

[sheffieldcelt]

Be good to bring in a superstar pitcher, c.lee for instance but too much money tied up in starters, I think john lackey was a mistake last pre season, think because he was no.1 free agent boston dived in too quick to tie him up

 

Realistically-improve bull pen (d.holland of texas would be excellent player to bring in but don't think they will trade), crawford or werth will come in-hopefully werth and hold on to big papi

[jacksonianmarch]

Holland will be in their rotation next yr

[alphilip77]

The one thing that I don't get is that if next year's draft is so deep, why are we worrying about hanging onto our 1st round picks? More than likely some prospects will fall because of signability issues, so we can just pick 'em up and sign like we did Ranuado. Plus, we got a hell of a draft haul as it is from the 2010 draft (Ranaudo, Workman, Vitek, etc.), so why worry? When you let the draft picks dictate what you do in free agency, you're asking for trouble. I say we go after the Werths and the Downs of this year's crop, and worry about the 1st round picks in 2012.

[sheffieldcelt]

Holland will be in their rotation next yr

 

aye suppose he will, he's been in and out for them, i think that boy will go on to be very good starter

[jacksonianmarch]

The one thing that I don't get is that if next year's draft is so deep' date=' why are we worrying about hanging onto our 1st round picks? More than likely some prospects will fall because of signability issues, so we can just pick 'em up and sign like we did Ranuado. Plus, we got a hell of a draft haul as it is from the 2010 draft (Ranaudo, Workman, Vitek, etc.), so why worry? When you let the draft picks dictate what you do in free agency, you're asking for trouble. I say we go after the Werths and the Downs of this year's crop, and worry about the 1st round picks in 2012.[/quote']

 

Well, it depends on what you lose and what you gain. And even with the talent that drops out of the first round, you are talking about guys with flaws (be it contract or injury or legal). Having a first round pick allows you to get the best player that you think is there without flaws. I understand the sox idea here. Lets assume the sox resign their players. VMart, Beltre, and Ortiz remain. The sox go out and look for the relief market. Is it worth losing a first round pick for a pitcher who might throw 70IP and be your 7th inning reliever or lefty specialist? Especially with what the sox have done with their draftees? That being said, if the sox lose a player who they offer arb to (Beltre comes to mind) then they get 2 picks and can afford then to lose one of their native picks

[ORS]

That will be a huge questionmark. There are tons of relievers out there and I can guarantee the sox will be kicking the tires. But the best reliever' date=' IMO (Downs), will cost a first round pick. Sufficed to say, I dont think the sox will be going after him.[/quote']

There's little to back this up. They've shown a willingness to let someone go if they can sign a similar player and net a supp. pick. They've also shown that they don't covet their 1st round pick if it is someone they think they need. Hell, they gave up a 1st rounder for Julio Lugo.

 

And it's, "suffice it to say".

[alphilip77]

Well' date=' it depends on what you lose and what you gain. And even with the talent that drops out of the first round, you are talking about guys with flaws (be it contract or injury or legal). Having a first round pick allows you to get the best player that you think is there without flaws. I understand the sox idea here. Lets assume the sox resign their players. VMart, Beltre, and Ortiz remain. The sox go out and look for the relief market. Is it worth losing a first round pick for a pitcher who might throw 70IP and be your 7th inning reliever or lefty specialist? Especially with what the sox have done with their draftees? That being said, if the sox lose a player who they offer arb to (Beltre comes to mind) then they get 2 picks and can afford then to lose one of their native picks[/quote']

 

I understand what you're saying. My main gripe with clinging to the picks, however, is that we were almost a playoff team with what we had. But numerous, un-timely injuries reared their head and the bullpen sucked dick. So if we were to go about acquiring FA relievers while trying to retain our picks, we'd be grabbing s***-bum guys like Schoenweis and settling for constant mediocrity like we have been with guys like Okajima and Delcarmen. How's that been working out?<_ i fine with grabbing one reclamation relief pitcher but think you can agree me on why we should break the bank and pick-wise to sign at least quality reliever such as al east proven downs. plus draft pick pitchers take several years before they even remotely contribute your name is strasburg just leaning more towards win-now approach for this offseason going back basics in>

[Spudboy]

There's little to back this up. They've shown a willingness to let someone go if they can sign a similar player and net a supp. pick. They've also shown that they don't covet their 1st round pick if it is someone they think they need. Hell, they gave up a 1st rounder for Julio Lugo.

 

And it's, "suffice it to say".

 

Lol. Yes it is. No need to nit pick.

 

Onto reformulating the pen. Theo has stated that paying top dollar (and/or picks) is a high risk/Unlikely reward when it comes to building a pen. And he has stated that he would rather go after "lesser" talents (lower investment) to round out the pen. This is supported by his reluctance (refusal) to pay the price for Downs at the deadline in 2010.

 

I'd love to see Downs in a Red Sox uni. But I won't hold my breath.

[example1]

That will be a huge questionmark. There are tons of relievers out there and I can guarantee the sox will be kicking the tires. But the best reliever' date=' IMO (Downs), will cost a first round pick. Sufficed to say, I dont think the sox will be going after him.[/quote']

 

You think Downs is better than Soriano? I don't. He's probably the best non-closing reliever though, definitely the best lefty one. Maybe that's what you meant. There are a few pretty good type B's, including Joquim Benoit, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, and a bunch of others.

 

I think this team needs to add two good veteran relievers to 2-3 year contracts. When Papelbon leaves they will need a few veterans to make up the pen and this seems like a really good year for that.

[BSN07]

I think Benoit is a possibility on a 1 or 2 year deal. Fuentes possibly. The only way I see them getting Downs is if they sign a higher FA first and thus screw Toronto again out of a 1st round pick.

 

I don't see the Sox giving any relievers 3 year deals.

[jacksonianmarch]

You think Downs is better than Soriano? I don't. He's probably the best non-closing reliever though, definitely the best lefty one. Maybe that's what you meant. There are a few pretty good type B's, including Joquim Benoit, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, and a bunch of others.

 

I think this team needs to add two good veteran relievers to 2-3 year contracts. When Papelbon leaves they will need a few veterans to make up the pen and this seems like a really good year for that.

 

Yes, that is what I meant. I doubt Soriano goes back to setting up, he seems to like the big moment as the closer

[jacksonianmarch]

There's little to back this up. They've shown a willingness to let someone go if they can sign a similar player and net a supp. pick. They've also shown that they don't covet their 1st round pick if it is someone they think they need. Hell, they gave up a 1st rounder for Julio Lugo.

 

And it's, "suffice it to say".

 

The red sox have had a pick before the second round in every yr since 2004. The yr they signed Lugo, they lost 2 type B FA's and had 2 supp round picks. It seems when the sox sign some Type A's, they balance them out with losing either type B's or Type A's as well. There is a very good chance that could happen again with Beltre or VMart. I am just saying that if the sox resign their guys and have no supp picks coming their way, I would assume Theo would be reticent to be dropped out of the first round for a lefty reliever. And I would agree with him. There are a lot of relievers out there who could do the job and arent going to need pick compensation

[jacksonianmarch]

Lol. Yes it is. No need to nit pick.

 

Onto reformulating the pen. Theo has stated that paying top dollar (and/or picks) is a high risk/Unlikely reward when it comes to building a pen. And he has stated that he would rather go after "lesser" talents (lower investment) to round out the pen. This is supported by his reluctance (refusal) to pay the price for Downs at the deadline in 2010.

 

I'd love to see Downs in a Red Sox uni. But I won't hold my breath.

 

And that bears out as well. Most of the time, spending big money on relievers is a great way to get burned. You build a good pen from within. You tweak it as needed, but a good pen is built from within

[BSN07]

The red sox have had a pick before the second round in every yr since 2004. The yr they signed Lugo' date=' they lost 2 type B FA's and had 2 supp round picks. It seems when the sox sign some Type A's, they balance them out with losing either type B's or Type A's as well. There is a very good chance that could happen again with Beltre or VMart. I am just saying that if the sox resign their guys and have no supp picks coming their way, I would assume Theo would be reticent to be dropped out of the first round for a lefty reliever. And I would agree with him. There are a lot of relievers out there who could do the job and arent going to need pick compensation[/quote']

 

I think that is fair. I don't see Theo giving up a 1st rounder for a reliever. I also don't see him giving out any long term deals to BP arms other then possibly extending Bard. It's just too risky. The turnover in BP's has to be the highest in baseball outside of the Red Sox and SS's. I am expecting a couple 1 year deals to fill out the pen. Maybe someone gets 2 years, but that's about it IMO.

 

I have seen suggestions that Downs will get 3 years, that is insane from my point of view. It makes no sense at all. If someone gives him that and I am a fan of that ball club, I would be flabbergasted.

[Dipre]

Long-term, big-money deals to relievers are the easiest way to get burned as a GM.

 

Justin Speier: 4 year, $18 million deal with the Angels.

 

Results? 2.88 ERA the first year, ERA over 5.00 the next two years, then released, a sunk cost.

 

I strongly disagree that a reliever can ever be a "proven commodity" their performance is so volatile that you can never really gauge what you're going to get from a reliever in a specific amount of time (sans Mariano Rivera, of course).

 

The funny thing is when people pine for the FO to waste copious amount of money on relief talent, those are the same people who will be the first to point the finger, bitch and moan about how "stupid the investment was in the first place".

 

Get a couple of the best type-B, mid-priced relievers available that suit the current Sox needs, and never, ever overpay for relief talent.

[BSN07]

Long-term, big-money deals to relievers are the easiest way to get burned as a GM.

 

Justin Speier: 4 year, $18 million deal with the Angels.

 

Results? 2.88 ERA the first year, ERA over 5.00 the next two years, then released, a sunk cost.

 

I strongly disagree that a reliever can ever be a "proven commodity" their performance is so volatile that you can never really gauge what you're going to get from a reliever in a specific amount of time (sans Mariano Rivera, of course).

 

The funny thing is when people pine for the FO to waste copious amount of money on relief talent, those are the same people who will be the first to point the finger, bitch and moan about how "stupid the investment was in the first place".

 

Get a couple of the best type-B, mid-priced relievers available that suit the current Sox needs, and never, ever overpay for relief talent.

 

Yup that's about it right there

[ORS]

Lol. Yes it is. No need to nit pick.

 

Onto reformulating the pen. Theo has stated that paying top dollar (and/or picks) is a high risk/Unlikely reward when it comes to building a pen. And he has stated that he would rather go after "lesser" talents (lower investment) to round out the pen. This is supported by his reluctance (refusal) to pay the price for Downs at the deadline in 2010.

 

I'd love to see Downs in a Red Sox uni. But I won't hold my breath.

I'm not picking nits, just providing him with the correct information.

 

I don't disagree that it's unlikely we see Downs on the team due to the inherent risk associated with volatile relievers (ie everyone other than the cyborg). I don't think the draft pick would weigh as heavily as the commitment, though.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think they both play into it here. Losing a draft pick for a proven player who fills a regular need isnt all that bad. But losing your first rounder AND paying in terms of yrs and salary for a mid 30's reliever who wont be a setup man or closer is a risky, risky proposition

[Dipre]

2011 RP Free Agents:

 

Closers

Octavio Dotel (37) - $4.5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout - Type B

Frank Francisco (31) -Type A

Brian Fuentes (35) - Type B

Kevin Gregg (33) - $4.5MM club option for '11, $8.75MM for '11-'12 - Type B

Trevor Hoffman (43) - mutual option worth $7-8.5MM; buyout at $500K-1MM - Type B

Chad Qualls (32) - Type B

Jon Rauch (32)

Mariano Rivera (41) - Type A

Rafael Soriano (31) - Type A

Kerry Wood (34) - $11MM club option - Type B

 

Right-handed relievers

Grant Balfour (33) - Type A

Miguel Batista (40)

Denny Bautista (28)

Joaquin Benoit (33) - Type B

Jose Contreras (39)

Jesse Crain (29) - Type B

Juan Cruz (30) - $4MM club option with a $500K buyout

Elmer Dessens (40)

Brendan Donnelly (39)

Chad Durbin (33) - Type B

Kelvim Escobar (34)

Kyle Farnsworth (35) - $5.25MM club option with a $500K buyout

Jason Frasor (33) - Type A

Chad Gaudin (28)

Enrique Gonzalez (28)

Matt Guerrier (32) - Type A

Aaron Heilman (32) - Type B

Bob Howry (37) - $3MM club option with a $250K buyout

Mike Lincoln (36)

Mike MacDougal (34)

Justin Miller (33)

Guillermo Mota (37)

Fernando Nieve (28)

Micah Owings (28)

Chan Ho Park (38)

J.J. Putz (34) - Type B

Jon Rauch (32) - Type B

David Riske (34)

Takashi Saito (41) - Type A

Chris Sampson (33)

Scot Shields (35)

Jeff Suppan (36)

Koji Uehara (36) - Type B

Tyler Walker (35)

Jeff Weaver (34)

Dan Wheeler (33) - $4MM club option with a $1MM buyout - Type A

Jamey Wright (36)

 

Left-handed relievers

Joe Beimel (34)

Bruce Chen (34)

Randy Choate (35) - Type B

Scott Downs (35) - Type A

Pedro Feliciano (34) - Type B

Mark Hendrickson (37) - $1.2MM club option with a $200K buyout

Ron Mahay (40)

Will Ohman (32)

Dennys Reyes (34)

Arthur Rhodes (41) - Type A

J.C. Romero (35) - $4.5MM club option with a $250K buyout

Bobby Seay (33)

Scott Schoeneweis (37)

Hisanori Takahashi (36)

Taylor Tankersley (28)

Matt Thornton (34) - $3MM club option with a $250K buyout - Type A

 

 

I bolded the guys i thought could be a good fit for the team on various roles, would not command outrageous salaries and were not Type A's.

 

Discuss.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gregg should be an outrageous salary. If I were the sox, I would focus on Benoit and Fuentes. Fuentes dominates lefties and Benoit has stuff that is closer material. Although I think Benoit does get a gig as a closer on the open market, most likely in Chicago (AL or NL) or on another smaller market team

[Dojji]

Putz`

[Dipre]

Gregg should be an outrageous salary. If I were the sox' date=' I would focus on Benoit and Fuentes. Fuentes dominates lefties and Benoit has stuff that is closer material. Although I think Benoit does get a gig as a closer on the open market, most likely in Chicago (AL or NL) or on another smaller market team[/quote']

 

I didn't bold Gregg's name.

 

And where in heaven do you get a team signing Benoit to be their closer?