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Posted
While it may be flawed' date=' and I agree that it is, mainly for the types of examples you state, and there are many of them, it's not subjective. It's a formula. So many dollars per WAR. The formula may be wrong, but it's objective.[/quote']

 

It may be objective' date=' but it doesnt fit this economy and it doesnt fit his performance. A .787OPS corner OFer isnt worth $10 million unless he has elite speed or elite defense. Drew isnt a burner and he plays good but not elite defense.[/quote']

 

Let's think about it this way:

 

Do you think Theo is more likely to use a formula similar to the one fangraphs used or the formula jacko used? How about other GMs? I'm willing to bet that every GM in baseball uses a formula more similar to the cost-per WAR than the "going rate of other players who may or may not be FAs" that Jacko used.

 

It is easy to call it a "subjective" assessment, but it was worse than that because the formula/approach you used wasn't just "I think he's worth about the same as Randy Winn" but rather "he had about the same OPS as Markakis and Markakis's deal paid him this much so that's what he's worth". You could also say that because JD Drew and Shin-Soo Choo were roughly as valuable as one another last year, JD Drew's value was $420k, and not a penny more.

 

It's a fundamentally flawed approach that isn't consistent.

Posted
If Drew and Ortiz contract were up today' date=' I would not give Drew another deal. Would you?[/quote']

 

Depend on the length and money. It's not the same comparison to ask if you'd give drew another five year deal because he's four years older from when he signed the last one.

 

Would I be opposed to bringing him back after next year on a short term short money deal? No. But with Boras as his agent that is mighty unlikely.

Posted
Let's say perfect world. Both of their contracts are up after this yr and you have a $12.5 mil option on both of them and you could only exercise one option. Who do you take? Papi and his circa .900OPS or Drew and his .787OPS and capability of playing a good RF?
Posted
If Drew and Ortiz contract were up today' date=' I would not give Drew another deal. Would you?[/quote']

 

Doesn't matter because Drew is retiring after next season anyway.

Posted
Let's think about it this way:

 

Do you think Theo is more likely to use a formula similar to the one fangraphs used or the formula jacko used? How about other GMs? I'm willing to bet that every GM in baseball uses a formula more similar to the cost-per WAR than the "going rate of other players who may or may not be FAs" that Jacko used.

 

It is easy to call it a "subjective" assessment, but it was worse than that because the formula/approach you used wasn't just "I think he's worth about the same as Randy Winn" but rather "he had about the same OPS as Markakis and Markakis's deal paid him this much so that's what he's worth". You could also say that because JD Drew and Shin-Soo Choo were roughly as valuable as one another last year, JD Drew's value was $420k, and not a penny more.

 

It's a fundamentally flawed approach that isn't consistent.

 

Not every gm is sabermetrically inclined - see Dan Haren trade.

 

Re Jacko: Ortiz would be the one I take, because Drew is replaceable through the farm or FA and Drew is not.

Posted
I'll believe that when it happens. Boras clients never retire. They stop getting offered contracts

 

I think he'd rather be at home with his kids. He's made a ton of money and has a ring. He's going to gang them up.

Posted
Let's say perfect world. Both of their contracts are up after this yr and you have a $12.5 mil option on both of them and you could only exercise one option. Who do you take? Papi and his circa .900OPS or Drew and his .787OPS and capability of playing a good RF?

 

I take Drew because there is a very reasonable chance he rebounds to an .850 OPS all while playing excellent defense in one of the most difficult right fields in baseball.

 

Ortiz offers nothing but his bat.

Posted

I take Drew because I think this team is better off finding a replacement for Ortiz who can also offer something else (i.e., fielding, baserunning, etc.,) that can boost the value of another position.

 

Depending on the options I might not take either and would use the money for Beltre or V-Mart.

Posted
I take Drew because I think this team is better off finding a replacement for Ortiz who can also offer something else (i.e., fielding, baserunning, etc.,) that can boost the value of another position.

 

Depending on the options I might not take either and would use the money for Beltre or V-Mart.

 

Id prefer to not re-sign either of them.

 

DH in MLB is a dying breed. There are very few "no field" "all hit" DH's in the game anymore. DH today is used as a means to either get a bat in the lineup, or give a guy a day off. Most DH's in the game right now have the ability to play a position.

 

The Paul Molitor, Danny Tartabull, Harold Baines, Chilli Davis, Jose Canseco, Frank Thomas, David Ortiz, Edgar Martinez days are over.

 

This year.....the only everyday DH's are Ortiz, Adam Lind, Vlad Guerrero, and Hideki Matsui. No other player in baseball appeared in more than 100 games at DH other than those guys.

 

I love Ortiz and appreciate everything he had done....unfortunately his days at DH, and the days of all or nothing guys who dont own a glove are pretty much over.

Posted
If Drew and Ortiz contract were up today' date=' I would not give Drew another deal. Would you?[/quote']

What's with all the Drew hate?

11 HR .270 .373 .423 .796

19 HR .280 .408 .519 .927

24 HR .279 .392 .522 .914

18 HR .252 .342 .438 .780

 

During the 4 years with Sox playing great defense. I don't think Theo expected more.

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