Should Kalish make the team next year?

[Will617]

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/6872/kalish-scores-big-in-james-forecast

 

Bill James projects Kalish to have a line of .271 average, .340 on-base percentage, 20 home runs, 82 RBIs, .452 slugging percentage, .791 .OPS.

Does he still work for the Sox? If he does, it could be a possible indication that the Sox are content to let Kalish run with it next year, although definitely not anything substantive.

[Dojji]

That's... an optimistic projection. But not really insanely so, he did put up pretty fair numbers this year for a rookie of his age (.700 OPS that's only as bad as it is due to a late slump).

 

20 HR's, a .340 OBP and some speed on the basepaths is a pretty exciting combination.

[jacksonianmarch]

20 homers next yr? I think that is his projection in his prime. I highly doubt he reaches 20 this yr

[Palodios]

He hit 17 in 131 games last year between three leagues in 2010, (and 19 in 2009) so the power is definitely there. I just don't think he will get enough at bats this year to hit those numbers.

[Keeper]

James also projects him to steal 43 bases and hit 39 doubles. That would be one helluva first full season.

[a700hitter]

James also projects him to steal 43 bases and hit 39 doubles. That would be one helluva first full season.

Are these projections for a season at AAA?

[Dojji]

Don't rule it out, the kid's definitely got all the talent he'd need, I just don't know if he's developed well enough yet that the consistency will be there.

[a700hitter]

Don't rule it out' date=' the kid's definitely got all the talent he'd need, I just don't know if he's developed well enough yet that the consistency will be there.[/quote']I'd rule it out only for 2011.

[Dojji]

I wouldn't ruke it out even for 2011, he's got the ability and if you add 40 to his BA, OBP and SLG to get his average up to the level James projects, both his discipline and power would match James' projection. If you then give him 450 AB's worth of sample all the other numbers match or are at least close with the exception of Homers, and we know the kid has power upside.

 

So basically what it comes down to is whether you think Kalish could hit .270 next year over a full season of plate appearances, and that's not really such an ambitious number for a talented kid with a good swing.

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't ruke it out even for 2011, he's got the ability and if you add 40 to his BA, OBP and SLG to get his average up to the level James projects, both his discipline and power would match James' projection. If you then give him 450 AB's worth of sample all the other numbers match or are at least close with the exception of Homers, and we know the kid has power upside.

 

So basically what it comes down to is whether you think Kalish could hit .270 next year over a full season of plate appearances, and that's not really such an ambitious number for a talented kid with a good swing.

Ain't gonna happen in 2011. If he is a starter for the 2011 team, the Sox will be watching the play offs, not playing in them..

[SoxSport]

Kalish may make Ellsbury tradeable--maybe for Upton. Though it's hard to see the DBacks taking a Boras client with a contract down the road. Maybe Kalish will be the bait.

[SoxSport]

Sure. Kalish is going to be a heck of a player. He and Ellsbury would do fine in a future outfield. Why spend $100 million on Crawford? Looks like Kalish will be a similar type of player.

I'd be careful about Upton. He will make $14 and 15M his last two years, and he missed the last part of last season with a bad shoulder.

The Sox have some great young players. Epstein has been very successful keeping them. My guess is he knows that.

 

(Ha. I see my previous post said something different. Scratch the previous post. Keep Kalish, Theo. )

[Dojji]

Kalish didn't embarrass himself last year, his numbers were actually pretty solid for a rookie. Like I said, if he can get his BA into the .270 range the rest of his rate stats would fall into line pretty nicely, and he's got a high 5-tool ceiling. I wouldn't be too upset if they decided to roll him out as a starting OF next year, and used Cameron to protect him from being too badly exposed. They should only do it if they are hauling back the reins a little, but it's something a lot of teams would do with a player like Kalish.

[a700hitter]

Kalish didn't embarrass himself last year' date=' his numbers were actually pretty solid for a rookie. Like I said, if he can get his BA into the .270 range the rest of his rate stats would fall into line pretty nicely, and he's got a high 5-tool ceiling. I wouldn't be too upset if they decided to roll him out as a starting OF next year, and used Cameron to protect him from being too badly exposed. They should only do it if they are hauling back the reins a little, but it's something a lot of teams would do with a player like Kalish.[/quote']If Kalish is the starting CF next season be prepared for no playoffs next season, because if they are ready to hand over CF to him the FO will be mailing it in. IMO, it ain't going to happen. Kalish will be lucky to make the roster, never mind start.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sure. Kalish is going to be a heck of a player. He and Ellsbury would do fine in a future outfield. Why spend $100 million on Crawford? Looks like Kalish will be a similar type of player.

I'd be careful about Upton. He will make $14 and 15M his last two years, and he missed the last part of last season with a bad shoulder.

The Sox have some great young players. Epstein has been very successful keeping them. My guess is he knows that.

 

(Ha. I see my previous post said something different. Scratch the previous post. Keep Kalish, Theo. )

 

He has the potential to be a similar player and will likely take his lumps along the way. If he doesnt hit that potential, then you waste time developing and time letting a young guy sort it out.

[diony]

He's a good starting point for a Justin Upton trade.

[diony]

Sure. Kalish is going to be a heck of a player. He and Ellsbury would do fine in a future outfield. Why spend $100 million on Crawford? Looks like Kalish will be a similar type of player.

I'd be careful about Upton. He will make $14 and 15M his last two years, and he missed the last part of last season with a bad shoulder.

The Sox have some great young players. Epstein has been very successful keeping them. My guess is he knows that.

 

(Ha. I see my previous post said something different. Scratch the previous post. Keep Kalish, Theo. )

Because you're getting 4-5 prime years from Crawford RIGHT AWAY.

[Dojji]

Because you're getting 4-5 prime years from Crawford RIGHT AWAY.

 

One of the things about trying to be a perennial contender is that the immediate payoff is not always the most important consideration.

[Republican4life38]

i don't see where he fits in next year unless cameron still isn't healthy. i think he'll start at triple a so he can get regular at bats

 

Lets hope Cameron isn't healthy then. Thats awful to say but he is a awful player. Quoting Felger.

[diony]

One of the things about trying to be a perennial contender is that the immediate payoff is not always the most important consideration.

 

You never learn. It's the same Teixeira-Anderson thing all over again. Now with Crawford and Kalish.

 

Another thing bout trying to be a perennial contender is that you need elite talent to play at an elite level.

[Rdsxmbnt]

You never learn. It's the same Teixeira-Anderson thing all over again. Now with Crawford and Kalish.

 

Another thing bout trying to be a perennial contender is that you need elite talent to play at an elite level.

 

Lars Anderson was never the difference between the Red Sox getting Teixeira. And neither is Kalish with Crawford.

[a700hitter]

Kalish got injured at AAA:

 

News: The Providence Journal reports that Red Sox OF Ryan Kalish hurt his shoulder Thursday making a diving catch. Kalish had tests and returned to the dugout in a sling. "We'll see," PawSox manager Arnie Beyeler said. "It didn't look real serious, but you never know. It was sore. It was hurting.

[SoxSport]

Kalish should be playing THIS year, not next year. And they would be $20 mil richer.

 

James OPS projections for this year: Kalish--.791, Crawford--.803.

[SoxSport]

Because you're getting 4-5 prime years from Crawford RIGHT AWAY.

 

The problem with Crawford is chemistry. Too much speed on a team that doesn't utilize speed. Francona is a big inning guy. Power guy. Werth would have been better. More balanced lineup. Epstein is thinking speed and defense, but they haven't made that adjustment. And they are hurting defensively at catcher.

 

You have to wonder about Theo. Last year it was Ellsbury to LF. This year it's Salty or bust.

[a700hitter]

Kalish should be playing THIS year, not next year. And they would be $20 mil richer.

 

James OPS projections for this year: Kalish--.791, Crawford--.803.

We would be much better with Kalish than Crawford.

[SoxSport]

We would be much better with Kalish than Crawford.

 

Up to this point, I would say Kalish couldn't be any worse than Crawford--for sure.

[a700hitter]

Up to this point' date=' I would say Kalish couldn't be any worse than Crawford--for sure. [/quote']It's April 22nd. I'll be thrilled beyond belief if Kalish has accomplished 75% of what Crawford has accomplished when he is age 29.

[ORS]

The problem with Crawford is chemistry. Too much speed on a team that doesn't utilize speed. Francona is a big inning guy. Power guy. Werth would have been better. More balanced lineup. Epstein is thinking speed and defense, but they haven't made that adjustment. And they are hurting defensively at catcher.

 

You have to wonder about Theo. Last year it was Ellsbury to LF. This year it's Salty or bust.

Too much speed on a team that doesn't use speed?

 

This might be your best non sequitur to date, and you are a virtual treasure trove of them. I eagerly await what tomorrow might bring.

[SoxSport]

Too much speed on a team that doesn't use speed?

 

This might be your best non sequitur to date, and you are a virtual treasure trove of them. I eagerly await what tomorrow might bring.

 

I hope the other 18000 posts weren't as unsubstantive as this one.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Hell yeah so I can see him do another crazy ass front flip catch in the outfield. What a beauty that was.