Clay Buchholz 2010

[Dipre]

Yeah' date=' that's ok. I'll take a young Buchholz going forward instead of a 30+ Cliff Lee. Now if given the choice between re-signing Josh Beckett or signing Lee in free agency, then the case looks better right now for Lee. Definitely.[b'] I think it was Dipre who advocated us doing that as well...[/b]

 

And was publicly ridiculed on the board for doing so. I liked Lee better than Beckett, because AL East success aside, Lee's health record and ability to throw strikes and get outs with lesser velocity was better geared towards aging well. Time will tell.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah' date=' that's ok. I'll take a young Buchholz going forward instead of a 30+ Cliff Lee. Now if given the choice between re-signing Josh Beckett or signing Lee in free agency, then the case looks better right now for Lee. Definitely. I think it was Dipre who advocated us doing that as well...[/quote']

 

I can't blame the sox for tying up Beckett, though. Beckett signed on the cheap considering his age, resume and pitching type (ie power pitcher). He also signed when his stock was pretty high. Lee has made it clear that he is going to the highest bidder, something the Phillies made eminently clear when they dealt him for Halladay, then offered Halladay 3yrs $60mil. The Phillies are in a big market and are capable of paying top dollar, so their move is telling. Plus, if the sox waited, and let Beckett go to FA, then they would be battling the Yankees for the services of either, depending on the situation. I'll tell you right now, with the fact that the Yankees are due to save some money on Mariano and Jeter (I think both ink for about 10-13mil per season) plus saving 24 mil on Vazquez and Pettitte, I would be hard pressed to think of them being anything but the favorites to land Lee.

 

Plus, you gotta take into account what Lee is gonna get. Lee will be 32 in August. Over the past 2+ seasons, he has started 71 games, thrown 500IP, has a WHIP of 1.07 and an ERA of 2.96. Not to mention the out of his mind post-season and the fact that all but 79.2 of those innings above were in the AL. He's a true blue ace, he's left handed and he'll be 32. And his pitching type and frame should allow his prime to continue for another few seasons, since he's more of a stuff and control guy. Burnett set the market for 32 yr old top flight starting pitchers. Lackey continued that. But Lee is better than both. Lee is more on par with Halladay, so you think the short end is 3yrs, 60mil, and the long end is somewhere in between Halladay and Burnett money in terms of AAV. Something akin to 5yrs, 92mil, for an AAV north of $18 million per season. Who looks like the better deal? And that is assuming someone doesnt outright overpay for Lee and pay him 20+ mil per yr on the open market like NYY did for CC. Theo took the savings on a guy who when he is right, he's an ace. When he isnt, he's a darn good 2. The only question is health.

[Lester82]

Having Buch not be injured at the beginning of the yr is a plus for Boston, but Lee has outpitched him since. Lee has a WHIP under 1 in the AL, that is awesome

 

By the way, Buch hasn't really been outpitched much this year. I mean, it's pretty hard to argue with what he's given the Red Sox in 2010... some awesome starts. Him and Lester are one helluva homegrown 1-2 punch.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, that's ok. I'll take a young Buchholz going forward instead of a 30+ Cliff Lee. Now if given the choice between re-signing Josh Beckett or signing Lee in free agency, then the case looks better right now for Lee. Definitely. I think it was Dipre who advocated us doing that as well...

 

The Yankees didn't give up young prospects to get Sabathia pre-free agency, they may not give them up for Lee pre-free agency. And with Lee, when he was 1.5 seasons removed from free agency, you're still giving up the young ace-in-the-making Buchholz for Lee. And yes, Buchholz does look to be a soon ace. He's on the track now...

 

I agree with Joel Sherman and Brian Cashman -- wait, hold on to the prospects.

 

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/yankees_likely_will_make_c4N3HmHxrlnrvWgHP0tzlI

 

I like your edit, you and I are thinking alike today. Okay, everyone be scared, be very, very scared.

 

I have never liked deadline deals for soon to be free agents. They are always desperation deals, the team dealing the all-star typically wins in the long run, the star always bolts, and the star typically doesnt lead his team to a title. Plus, there isnt a need right now. NY has a rotation that has started out hot, with 4 guys at or below an ERA of 4 and another guy who is starting to figure it out in Vazquez. There isnt a need. And for the sox, if they think Beckett is coming back, then they dont have a need. If anything, they have a logjam, and going forward, Lee would only complicate things with Lester, Beckett, Lackey, DiceK, and Buchholz under team control through 2012 at the least. It makes no sense. Plus, Lee has no intrinsic need to sign with whatever team deals for him. Why should he? He was a star in a WS losing effort for Philly last yr, AND, if he can endure one s***** season in Seattle, he'll get to pick his location for 2011 AND will most likely be on a winner while making boatloads of cash.

[jacksonianmarch]

By the way' date=' Buch hasn't really been outpitched much this year. I mean, it's pretty hard to argue with what he's given the Red Sox in 2010... some awesome starts. Him and Lester are one helluva homegrown 1-2 punch.[/quote']

 

He has been very valuable for the sox. I just have a beef with calling him an ace right now, since his WHIP tells me that his ERA should be somewhere in the low 4's. Regardless, hell of a start for him, AND his stuff has improved. He's gonna be an ace by 2012, IMO.

[alphilip77]

While we're on the subject of starting pitchers, if Dice-K doesn't start getting his s*** together in the next couple of weeks, I'm going to be at the point where I just want him cut at the end of the season. Cap ramifications be damned. He can't be traded and the only time he really shines is against NL teams.

[Dojji]

One bad game.

 

He had one. Bad. Game.

 

Sure it was a particularly awful bad game, but still. One game people.

[a700hitter]

One bad game.

 

He had one. Bad. Game.

 

Sure it was a particularly awful bad game, but still. One game people.

His last game is closer to his norm than is the one-hitter. Everyone creamed their panties when he 1-hit the Phillies, but that game was an aberration. He got lucky facing an offense that is in a horrible slump. They have been shut out in 5 of their last 8 games and in another game they managed only one-run. Some of the pitchers that have shut them down have been very ordinary or unaccomplished. Dice K has a lot to prove.

[TedWilliams101]

One bad game.

 

He had one. Bad. Game.

 

Sure it was a particularly awful bad game, but still. One game people.

 

Are you talking about Dice-K?

1st start: 6 ER, 4.2 IP, 3BB, 7 hits

2nd start: 5 ER, 5.1 IP, 3BB, 5 hits

3rd start: 1 ER, 7 IP, 0BB, 3 hits

4th start: 7 ER, 4.2 IP, 3BB, 9 hits

5th start: 0 ER, 8 IP, 4BB, 1 hit

6th start: 3 ER, 4.2 IP, 8BB, 2 hits

 

3 awful starts, 2 dominate starts, 1 sub-par start. The guy is a career 1.4 WHIP, 1.93 K/BB, 4.3 BB/9. Lets be real here, his first year was average, his second was great for wins/era, but he wasn't exactly dominant with a 1.32 WHIP, 5 BB/9. His last season+ has been awful.

 

I see a pitcher with 1 "good" year out of 3+ season who gives up WAY to many walks to be successful and pitch deep into games. He's looking more and more like Hideo Nomo, except worse. Nomo actually dominated his first 2 seasons and his WHIP was 1.0 and 1.1 and over 230 strikeouts. However, his whip got worse every season and he quickly became average to poor. Dice-K already has the high WHIP, I see his fall being worse than Nomo.

[Keeper]

Yeah' date=' that's ok. I'll take a young Buchholz going forward instead of a 30+ Cliff Lee. Now if given the choice between re-signing Josh Beckett or signing Lee in free agency, then the case looks better right now for Lee. Definitely. I think it was Dipre who advocated us doing that as well...[/quote']

 

For the record, I was also on board the Lee train.

[Dipre]

He's been good' date=' but not 3.07ERA good. 1.4 baserunners per inning and 4 walks per 9 is more akin to a pitcher with an ERA in the mid 4's. Still good, but he is due for a correction over the next few weeks.[/quote']

 

WHIP down to 1.28, FIP down to 3.64. BB/9 down to 3.64. Only fluky stat is a decreasing BABIP which now sits at .282. Correction indeed, but in the opposite direction.

[Dojji]

Indeed, instead of "correction" meaning his ERA gets worse, right now his peripherals are getting better.

[example1]

How anybody could watch him pitch and not see what all the excitement was about is beyond me. His stuff is great and his ability to command the zone with multiple good pitches has definitely improved. When he has to throw a FB it usually has a wrinkle to it and when it doesn't it is hitting 94-95 in his spots.

 

The most impressive thing to me is how he has changed from a strikeout pitcher to a pitcher who makes hitters hit his stuff. That will get him deeper into games. I think the strikeout numbers will go up over the next few years though as he gets into fewer deep counts and ahead more often. All in all, good stuff from Clay.

[Lester82]

Indeed' date=' instead of "correction" meaning his ERA gets worse, right now his peripherals are getting better.[/quote']

 

Let's face it. He was due for a correction because he isn't Phil Hughes and he's a member of the Red Sox.

 

-Jacko objectivity

[jacksonianmarch]

Let's face it. He was due for a correction because he isn't Phil Hughes and he's a member of the Red Sox.

 

-Jacko objectivity

 

Just another dumbass post there Lester. Expect it from you now.

 

Dipre is exactly right. His ERA was way below what was expected based on his peripherals. But now, his peripherals are coming down to meet his ERA. He's been nothing short of excellent of late

[Palodios]

After the start tonite, I just want to talk about what a great job Buchholz has been doing. Of all the injuries to this team, I honestly believe the one to Buchholz was the one that hurt them the most.

 

This kid finally got over confidence issues, got to the all-star game, and has the best ERA in the AL. If he didn't get injured, there's a chance he might've gotten the Cy Young.

 

His line for tonite was 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB. I think they should seriously consider signing him to a long term contract while they can.

[Will617]

I do wish his strikeout rate would go up and walk rate would go down. I've heard a lot of people say that he's not throwing his out pitches in two-strike counts, which would help towards that; I haven't watched Buchholz enough to confirm/deny that, but if that were true his peripherals (which are not good) could, at some point, support his ERA.

In his first 100 or so innings with the Sox, Buchholz had a K/9 rate of about 8.5, 8.6. The next 200 innings, his rate is about 6.5 or so. He's been adding velocity through the years, but now throws his slider more and more while really dropping down his curveballs (8% this year, 15% and 21% in 07 and 08) and his changeups as well, although to a lesser degree.

[a700hitter]

I do wish his strikeout rate would go up and walk rate would go down. I've heard a lot of people say that he's not throwing his out pitches in two-strike counts, which would help towards that; I haven't watched Buchholz enough to confirm/deny that, but if that were true his peripherals (which are not good) could, at some point, support his ERA.

In his first 100 or so innings with the Sox, Buchholz had a K/9 rate of about 8.5, 8.6. The next 200 innings, his rate is about 6.5 or so. He's been adding velocity through the years, but now throws his slider more and more while really dropping down his curveballs (8% this year, 15% and 21% in 07 and 08) and his changeups as well, although to a lesser degree.

K/9 rate is not important. The best pitchers can get the K when they need it, but pitch to contact most of the time. Getting K's takes lots of pitches. Pitching to contact keeps pitch counts manageable.

[Dojji]

I'm hoping he gets the walks down, but frankly Buchholz has impressed me immensely this year. He's learned how to pitch and is doing it way better than I thought he ever would. I thought honestly that he'd be a stuff-first guy with a mid 3 ERA at his peak, with a consistency problem stopping him from taking that last step. Boy did he show me!

 

I think as he gets the finesse aspect of the game down fully, he'll tune up the power again and the strikeouts will come -- he's still developing and he hasn't really been "turned loose" yet IMHO, they're still asking him to do things a certain way so he'll get them down longterm.

 

We're looking at an ace in the making, barring some kind of disaster all that remains is a finishing touch or two. The idea that this kid still has room to improve makes me all tingly.

[a700hitter]

I'm hoping he gets the walks down' date=' but frankly Buchholz has impressed me immensely this year. He's learned how to [i']pitch[/i] and is doing it way better than I thought he ever would. I thought honestly that he'd be a stuff-first guy with a mid 3 ERA at his peak, with a consistency problem stopping him from taking that last step. Boy did he show me!

 

I think as he gets the finesse aspect of the game down fully, he'll tune up the power again and the strikeouts will come -- he's still developing and he hasn't really been "turned loose" yet IMHO, they're still asking him to do things a certain way so he'll get them down longterm.

 

We're looking at an ace in the making, barring some kind of disaster all that remains is a finishing touch or two. The idea that this kid still has room to improve makes me all tingly.

Tingly? Good god, get a grip. It's a baseball game.

 

I'd like to see him get his walks down too, but k's are not important as long as he knows how to get them when he needs them (e.g. when there is a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs). From today's Globe:

 

Buchholz has learned to economize. He hasn’t had huge strikeout totals, he’s pitching more to contact. He’s throwing strikes and daring the hitter to do something with it. So far, they haven’t done a whole lot.

[Will617]

K/9 rate is not important. The best pitchers can get the K when they need it' date=' but pitch to contact most of the time. Getting K's takes lots of pitches. Pitching to contact keeps pitch counts manageable.[/quote']

 

That would be true in some instances, but not in Buchholz's. I looked up the data, and Buchholz is throwing his fastball and slider 73% in 0-2 counts, 73% in 1-2, 70% in 2-2 counts, and 86% in 3-2 counts (though the last could probably be excused). Those two are largely contact pitches that he's throwing in 2-strike counts, meaning that he's drawing out the plate appearance by giving up more foul balls and/or inducing contact, rather than just getting them out with his plus change or curve.

Also, nearly all the elite pitchers in the game have great K/9 rates (Lincecum, Lester, and Josh Johnson are all over 9, Halladay and King Felix are all over 8, Beckett is usually over 8, CC and Zack Greinke are in the 7-7.5 range but have posted higher, and Cliff Lee is in that range but has posted lower; he is one of the few examples of a weak contact pitcher, and one that has a sparkling BB/9 rate, something Buchholz does not have).

So, in my opinion, Buchholz is not an elite pitcher yet, only a very good one who is overachieving at the moment; he certainly could be an elite pitcher, given some time to refine his approach.

[Dojji]

Lester's K rate jumped after a few years in the league, I expect Buchholz' to follow suit.

[a700hitter]

That would be true in some instances, but not in Buchholz's. I looked up the data, and Buchholz is throwing his fastball and slider 73% in 0-2 counts, 73% in 1-2, 70% in 2-2 counts, and 86% in 3-2 counts (though the last could probably be excused). Those two are largely contact pitches that he's throwing in 2-strike counts, meaning that he's drawing out the plate appearance by giving up more foul balls and/or inducing contact, rather than just getting them out with his plus change or curve.

Also, nearly all the elite pitchers in the game have great K/9 rates (Lincecum, Lester, and Josh Johnson are all over 9, Halladay and King Felix are all over 8, Beckett is usually over 8, CC and Zack Greinke are in the 7-7.5 range but have posted higher, and Cliff Lee is in that range but has posted lower; he is one of the few examples of a weak contact pitcher, and one that has a sparkling BB/9 rate, something Buchholz does not have).

So, in my opinion, Buchholz is not an elite pitcher yet, only a very good one who is overachieving at the moment; he certainly could be an elite pitcher, given some time to refine his approach.

Halladay's highest k/9 ratio in the AL was 7.8 in 2009. Many years he was under 7. Josh Johnson and Lincecum pick up lots of extra K's because they pitch in the NL, and as you pointed out, Cliff Lee's ration is not that high. Buchholz doesn't need to increase his k/9 ratio to be an elite pitcher. The proff is in the pudding and Buchholz is doing a better job of managing his pitch count and going deeper into games now that he is pitching to more contact.

[Dojji]

A 6-7 K/9 is all you need to be effective. You'd like more, of course, but if you're between 6 and 7 and are a capable pitcher to contact you can even excel.

 

I don't think Buchholz stops there though. There's plenty of precedent to suggest that his k/9 should improve.

[a700hitter]

A 6-7 K/9 is all you need to be effective. You'd like more, of course, but if you're between 6 and 7 and are a capable pitcher to contact you can even excel.

 

I don't think Buchholz stops there though. There's plenty of precedent to suggest that his k/9 should improve.

More k's are not worth it if it comes at the expense of a higher pitch count and shorter outings. Bullpens make me cringe.

[Dojji]

Ptching to contact has its limitations though. Every now and again someone's going to be able to line you up and take you deep. You need to be able to get it by a hitter at will when required. The best is a combo of the two and that's more or less what Buchholz offers.

 

if nothing else you need to be able to deal with a patient team that won't swing unless it's meat.

[a700hitter]

Ptching to contact has its limitations though. Every now and again someone's going to be able to line you up and take you deep. You need to be able to get it by a hitter at will when required. The best is a combo of the two.

Yes, pitch to contact, usually with the bases empty, and get the K when needed. Getting taken deep is not a big deal if it is a solo shot. Plenty of HOF pitchers had high HR totals, but not 3-run HR totals. For example, Jim Palmer gave up a fair share HRs, but in his long career, he never gave up a Grand Slam.

[Will617]

Many years that Halladay's K/9 was under 7, he was also not very good; he had both good years and bad, not the sustained dominance over the past three years that has many people considering him the best pitcher in baseball.

And just because Josh Johnson and Lincecum pitch in the NL, doesn't mean that you can simply discount their numbers. There is strong correlation between high K/9 rates and dominance. Just look at the career K/9 leaders at http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/strikeouts_per_nine_career.shtml - most of the pitchers at the top of the list were dominant, and much fewer of the pitchers at the bottom were dominant. It isn't precise, but that seems to indicate that K/9 has a high correlation with continued success. And it's certainly true in the case of Buchholz - maybe he's managing his pitch counts well, but perhaps he could manage it better by not pitching to contact in 2 strike counts?

Dojji brings up an interesting point though - Lester went through the same peroid of low K/9 rates, while having good surface numbers and poor peripherals, before becoming a dominant strikeout machine. Maybe part of Farrell's philosophy?

Also, nearly all of the pitchers I listed who have high K/9 rates, also go deep into games. Striking out a lot of batters doesn't mean you can't also go deep into games.

[a700hitter]

Many years that Halladay's K/9 was under 7, he was also not very good; he had both good years and bad, not the sustained dominance over the past three years that has many people considering him the best pitcher in baseball.

And just because Josh Johnson and Lincecum pitch in the NL, doesn't mean that you can simply discount their numbers. There is strong correlation between high K/9 rates and dominance. Just look at the career K/9 leaders at http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/strikeouts_per_nine_career.shtml - most of the pitchers at the top of the list were dominant, and much fewer of the pitchers at the bottom were dominant. It isn't precise, but that seems to indicate that K/9 has a high correlation with continued success. And it's certainly true in the case of Buchholz - maybe he's managing his pitch counts well, but perhaps he could manage it better by not pitching to contact in 2 strike counts?

Dojji brings up an interesting point though - Lester went through the same peroid of low K/9 rates, while having good surface numbers and poor peripherals, before becoming a dominant strikeout machine. Maybe part of Farrell's philosophy?

Also, nearly all of the pitchers I listed who have high K/9 rates, also go deep into games. Striking out a lot of batters doesn't mean you can't also go deep into games.

Since 2000, Halladay has had one off year (2004). Other than that he has been damn good every other year. He was awesome in 2002 and 2003 and 2005 - 2007 were pretty darn good too. In each of those years he k'd less than 7 per 9 innings. That's 5 of the 9 years in which he has been a full-time starter. If you look at all the pitching greats throughout the ages, many did n't have k/9 ratios of 8. Many were around 5, 6, or 7. That doesn't mean that they were not strikeout pitchers. They got the k's when they needed them. Bob Gibson was one of the best strikeout pitchers of all time. He could get a k whenever he wanted to get one, but his career ratio was 7.2. Seaver's was 6.8. Buchholz's k ratio is just fine. He's learning how to pitch not throw, and that is what is most important.

[Will617]

Roy Halladay has had superior groundball numbers to Buchholz (not that Buch doesn't have good GB tendencies, but Halladay's ridiculous), his 2007 wasn't spectacular either, and he's been a better pitcher since his K/9 went up.

Other than that, I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree. I don't have anything really new to say.