Clay Buchholz 2010

[example1]

The guy deserves his own thread, especially this season. Obviously 2010 is somewhat of a make-or-break season for Buchholz but I don't think he has to put it all together this season or else.

 

The Buchholz we are seeing so far in 2010 is a different pitcher than the kid who came up a few years ago. His strikeout rate is lower but the results are much better and he has added multiple wrinkles to his three primary pitches (developing his 2FB and slider) that really seems to have hitters guessing. I get the sense by watching him that he is just figuring out how to use these pitches consistently.

 

One of the things that makes Buchholz a potentially very special pitcher is that he throws hard. I don't think his FB gets enough credit. He's the 8th hardest-thrower (93.8) of pitchers with more than 40 IP, has the hardest avg among starters in the AL East, and at 88.6 he also throws the hardest slider among all MLB starters.

 

With such a good FB it is understandable why the Sox would want to work to change his repetoir to match his strengths. He is throwing his FB 10% more than he did in 2008, and his slider 9% more often. He throws his curveball 14% less than he did that year. In the past he would get behind in the count with his secondary stuff and hitters would sit on his FB. Now he throws a majority of FB and Sliders. In fact, in 2010 he is throwing about 73% either FB or slider. In 2008 he threw only 55% FB or Slider. That's a huge difference in the type of pitcher he is. He deserves a lot of credit for reworking his arsenal and being willing to largely forego a very good pitch (his curveball) in the name of being MLB-effective.

[msubulldogs21]

I was going to mention that he definitely seems to be throwing harder than he has the past few years. It surprises me that he's currently the hardest thrower in the AL East though. He just looks so much more comfortable out there. When he gets into jams (like tonight in the 1st) he doesn't get rattled and give up the big innings like he had done before this year. It's great to see him looking like he's realizing his full potential, something we had been hoping for since he came up in '07 and threw the no-hitter. What we're seeing so far this season is why I really didn't want to trade him last year when his name kept floating around.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's been good, but not 3.07ERA good. 1.4 baserunners per inning and 4 walks per 9 is more akin to a pitcher with an ERA in the mid 4's. Still good, but he is due for a correction over the next few weeks.

[Wasatch]

He's really surprised me this year, so far.

[Dojji]

He's been good' date=' but not 3.07ERA good. 1.4 baserunners per inning and 4 walks per 9 is more akin to a pitcher with an ERA in the mid 4's. Still good, but he is due for a correction over the next few weeks.[/quote']

 

Agreed, either the bb/9 or the ERA will correct, but my money's on the bb/9

[Dipre]

He's been good' date=' but not 3.07ERA good. 1.4 baserunners per inning and 4 walks per 9 is more akin to a pitcher with an ERA in the mid 4's. Still good, but he is due for a correction over the next few weeks.[/quote']

 

Not necessarily a bad correction, mind you.

 

A sharp decrease in his BB's has been seen his past two starts.

[YeAuldBroade]

The biggest difference with Buchholz this year is between the ears. He's always had the stuff but now he really thinks his is the biggest in the damn stadium. Starting pitchers need that. He still needs to pick up the pace a little when a runner gets on base. Buchholz is at his best when he's pitching at a rapid tempo.

 

He's a future Ace (only a year or two away) and Jackson you're nuts.

[ORS]

Actually, with an average BABIP (.309), because he's been able to keep the ball in the park (0.5 HR/9), his FIP is 3.57.....with, like Dipre said, improving peripherals, and not just in BB/9 but in K/9 as well. And this was against two very good hitting teams. It's a small sample, but it's also very common for pitchers to have something click a month or so into the season and their control improves.

 

His xFIP is 4.10, but that brings up a funny contradiction in FIP and xFIP. xFIP is based on what his FIP would be based on an adjusted (to average) HR/FB rate. But the whole concept of FIP is that you gauge the pitcher on what they can control (K, BB, HR). So, a pitcher who is doing a good job at what FIP credits him for, keeping the ball in the park, gets penalized by xFIP's normalization. Either the pitcher has control over HR or he doesn't.

[Dipre]

Actually, with an average BABIP (.309), because he's been able to keep the ball in the park (0.5 HR/9), his FIP is 3.57.....with, like Dipre said, improving peripherals, and not just in BB/9 but in K/9 as well. And this was against two very good hitting teams. It's a small sample, but it's also very common for pitchers to have something click a month or so into the season and their control improves.

 

His xFIP is 4.10, but that brings up a funny contradiction in FIP and xFIP. xFIP is based on what his FIP would be based on an adjusted (to average) HR/FB rate. But the whole concept of FIP is that you gauge the pitcher on what they can control (K, BB, HR). So, a pitcher who is doing a good job at what FIP credits him for, keeping the ball in the park, gets penalized by xFIP's normalization. Either the pitcher has control over HR or he doesn't.

 

There are several pitchers who are an example of "clicking after the season has started", with Jon Lester, also a member of the Sox, being the most notable one.

[JimEdHOF2009]

The guy deserves his own thread, especially this season. Obviously 2010 is somewhat of a make-or-break season for Buchholz but I don't think he has to put it all together this season or else.

 

The Buchholz we are seeing so far in 2010 is a different pitcher than the kid who came up a few years ago. His strikeout rate is lower but the results are much better and he has added multiple wrinkles to his three primary pitches (developing his 2FB and slider) that really seems to have hitters guessing. I get the sense by watching him that he is just figuring out how to use these pitches consistently.

 

One of the things that makes Buchholz a potentially very special pitcher is that he throws hard. I don't think his FB gets enough credit. He's the 8th hardest-thrower (93.8) of pitchers with more than 40 IP, has the hardest avg among starters in the AL East, and at 88.6 he also throws the hardest slider among all MLB starters.

 

With such a good FB it is understandable why the Sox would want to work to change his repetoir to match his strengths. He is throwing his FB 10% more than he did in 2008, and his slider 9% more often. He throws his curveball 14% less than he did that year. In the past he would get behind in the count with his secondary stuff and hitters would sit on his FB. Now he throws a majority of FB and Sliders. In fact, in 2010 he is throwing about 73% either FB or slider. In 2008 he threw only 55% FB or Slider. That's a huge difference in the type of pitcher he is. He deserves a lot of credit for reworking his arsenal and being willing to largely forego a very good pitch (his curveball) in the name of being MLB-effective.

 

I started a thread 1 month ago stating Buchholz would become an ACE this year. He has more wins since July 19th of last year than ANY PITCHER IN MLB.

[JimEdHOF2009]

He's been good' date=' but not 3.07ERA good. 1.4 baserunners per inning and 4 walks per 9 is more akin to a pitcher with an ERA in the mid 4's. Still good, but he is due for a correction over the next few weeks.[/quote']

 

Trivia time Yankee man...

 

Which pitcher has the most wins in MLB since July 19th of 2009??

 

 

 

Answer.. Clay f***ing Buchholz

 

Take your corrections and shove them up yer ass.. I GUARANTEE you he will have an ERA under 4.. WELL under 4.. More like 3.25 or Lower..

Just because Phil Hughes is reverting back to his Major League norms as starting pitcher, do not project your cherry-picked BS stats unto Clay.. Like I have said over and over again on this board.. CLAY IS BETTER than Phil Hughes... Hughes got his butt-whipped his last 2 outings and I expect he has quite a few more of them coming.. His arsenal is just not as diverse as Clay's..he is Clay-light.

[a700hitter]

Trivia time Yankee man...

 

Which pitcher has the most wins in MLB since July 19th of 2009??

 

 

 

Answer.. Clay f***ing Buchholz

 

Take your corrections and shove them up yer ass.. I GUARANTEE you he will have an ERA under 4.. WELL under 4.. More like 3.25 or Lower..

Just because Phil Hughes is reverting back to his Major League norms as starting pitcher, do not project your cherry-picked BS stats unto Clay.. Like I have said over and over again on this board.. CLAY IS BETTER than Phil Hughes... Hughes got his butt-whipped his last 2 outings and I expect he has quite a few more of them coming.. His arsenal is just not as diverse as Clay's..he is Clay-light.

You thought David Ortiz was toast. I guess your talents are in the area of evaluating pitching.:dunno:

[Palodios]

Its also noteable who he has been pitching against as well.

 

The Rangers, the yankees, the tigers, the twins, 2 against tampa, toronto. The only team he's faced outside of the top half of AL in runs scored is Kansas City, who are at #9 respectively, and he has yet to face NL teams yet.

[JimEdHOF2009]

You thought David Ortiz was toast. I guess your talents are in the area of evaluating pitching.:dunno:

 

I guess I was wrong about Ortiz..and glad to be. I wasn't alone in my appraisal of Ortiz.

[diony]

Trivia time Yankee man...

 

Which pitcher has the most wins in MLB since July 19th of 2009??

 

 

 

Answer.. Clay f***ing Buchholz

 

Take your corrections and shove them up yer ass.. I GUARANTEE you he will have an ERA under 4.. WELL under 4.. More like 3.25 or Lower..

Just because Phil Hughes is reverting back to his Major League norms as starting pitcher, do not project your cherry-picked BS stats unto Clay.. Like I have said over and over again on this board.. CLAY IS BETTER than Phil Hughes... Hughes got his butt-whipped his last 2 outings and I expect he has quite a few more of them coming.. His arsenal is just not as diverse as Clay's..he is Clay-light.

 

Your Clay-Hughes predictions were not accurate last time

[example1]

I guess I was wrong about Ortiz..and glad to be. I wasn't alone in my appraisal of Ortiz.

 

I don't think anyone should be blamed for not having faith that Ortiz would turn it around. He was absolutely horrible for a good portion of 2009, and really putrid for the beginning of 2010 with an inibility to hit the ball hard in any direction. Those who bailed on him were justified in noticing a change in his capabilities as a player. Part of me is suspicious about his sudden resurgence, but without further information it remains just suspicion.

 

That said, I'm extremely thankful that he came back around and that the only person whose opinion on this subject matters--Terry Francona--stuck by his slugger. We're all better off for it.

[a700hitter]

I don't think anyone should be blamed for not having faith that Ortiz would turn it around. He was absolutely horrible for a good portion of 2009, and really putrid for the beginning of 2010 with an inibility to hit the ball hard in any direction. Those who bailed on him were justified in noticing a change in his capabilities as a player. Part of me is suspicious about his sudden resurgence, but without further information it remains just suspicion.

 

That said, I'm extremely thankful that he came back around and that the only person whose opinion on this subject matters--Terry Francona--stuck by his slugger. We're all better off for it.

He had a bad injury in 2008 ruining the remainder of his 2008 season. His slow start in 2009 was a carryover from the wrist injury. He hit gangbusters from June on in 2009. His slow start this season was blown completely out of proportion.

Other players around the league got off to worse starts including Drew, but Drew played everyday so he broke out sooner. Teixeira is still slumping. It happens to power hitters who like the hot weather.

 

Your suspicions? OMG, give the idiot Yankee fans some unsubstantiated amo. Do you think he started taking Roids in the middle of April and they kicked in with improved performance in two weeks. I don't think they work that way. His bat speed was there all along. His timing was not. Two weeks into the season and everyone was ready to send him to the glue factory and it was all over the news. It got into his head a bit, and he had to fight through it. Him hitting again was very foreseeable. The question was when and whether the Sox had the patience to wait while Lowell was still on the team.

[schillingouttheks]

Trivia time Yankee man...

 

Which pitcher has the most wins in MLB since July 19th of 2009??

 

 

 

Answer.. Clay f***ing Buchholz

 

Take your corrections and shove them up yer ass.. I GUARANTEE you he will have an ERA under 4.. WELL under 4.. More like 3.25 or Lower..

Just because Phil Hughes is reverting back to his Major League norms as starting pitcher, do not project your cherry-picked BS stats unto Clay.. Like I have said over and over again on this board.. CLAY IS BETTER than Phil Hughes... Hughes got his butt-whipped his last 2 outings and I expect he has quite a few more of them coming.. His arsenal is just not as diverse as Clay's..he is Clay-light.

 

You need to lighten up. Enough of the hostile attitude. He didn't do or say anything to warrant an attack. You do this too much, and it has to stop. I can't remember one time you didn't come onto this board without inflammatory remarks flying from your keyboard.

[BSN07]

You need to lighten up. Enough of the hostile attitude. He didn't do or say anything to warrant an attack. You do this too much' date=' and it has to stop. I can't remember one time you didn't come onto this board without inflammatory remarks flying from your keyboard.[/quote']

 

Ya I noticed this as well. Sometimes he has an interesting view but it get's all mucked up with his over aggressive tendencies.

 

Back on topic. Buchholz really seems to becoming into his own. Hopefully this will erase his name from all trade rumors this year.

[diony]

"The Guardians asked for Clay Buchholz in exchange for Cliff Lee last summer and were rejected by the Red Sox. The Guardians were smart to ask, but the Red Sox are surely glad they held onto Buchholz, who has a 3.07 ERA this year."

 

Buchh and lesser prospects for Lee and they didn't do it? Really?

[Dipre]

"The Guardians asked for Clay Buchholz in exchange for Cliff Lee last summer and were rejected by the Red Sox. The Guardians were smart to ask, but the Red Sox are surely glad they held onto Buchholz, who has a 3.07 ERA this year."

 

Buchh and lesser prospects for Lee and they didn't do it? Really?

 

Where's the link? And which were the "lesser prospects?"

[diony]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/05/heyman-on-prince-buchholz-sheets.html

[example1]

"The Guardians asked for Clay Buchholz in exchange for Cliff Lee last summer and were rejected by the Red Sox. The Guardians were smart to ask, but the Red Sox are surely glad they held onto Buchholz, who has a 3.07 ERA this year."

 

Buchh and lesser prospects for Lee and they didn't do it? Really?

 

Why does this surprise you?

 

Thru age 25 seasons (for Buchholz that is the 2010 season, not finished):

 

[TABLE] YEARS | PITCHER | IP | ERA | ERA+ | K | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/BB |

2002-2004 | CLIFF LEE | 241.2 | 4.88 | 90 | 211 | 1.423 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.94 |

2007-2010 | BUCHHOLZ | 246.1 | 4.49 | 103 | 205 | 1.474 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.85 | [/TABLE]

 

They look like pretty similar pitchers thru the same age to me. Buchholz is younger and considerably cheaper. To a team like Cleveland he would be worth more than the 1.5 years of Lee. Buchholz + anything probably seemed like too much to the Sox.

 

I like Lee a lot, but I can understand not wanting to part with Buchholz for him.

[Dipre]

It's unrealistic to compare the current Cliff Lee to the current Clay Bucholz. If Lee was offered straight up for Buch or in a package with lesser prospects, that's a deal the Sox should have done. In fact, it sounds so good, i don't think it's true.

[diony]

Why does this surprise you?

 

Thru age 25 seasons (for Buchholz that is the 2010 season, not finished):

 

[TABLE] YEARS | PITCHER | IP | ERA | ERA+ | K | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/BB |

2002-2004 | CLIFF LEE | 241.2 | 4.88 | 90 | 211 | 1.423 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.94 |

2007-2010 | BUCHHOLZ | 246.1 | 4.49 | 103 | 205 | 1.474 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.85 | [/TABLE]

 

They look like pretty similar pitchers thru the same age to me. Buchholz is younger and considerably cheaper. To a team like Cleveland he would be worth more than the 1.5 years of Lee. Buchholz + anything probably seemed like too much to the Sox.

 

I like Lee a lot, but I can understand not wanting to part with Buchholz for him.

 

Your argument has a major flaw. Boston would have gotten a 30 year old Cliff Lee for 1.5 years on his prime. An elite pitcher.

 

Which one is better right now?

 

Based on that argument you wouldn't deal Buchh for Halladay last offseason, because when Halladay was 25 he sucked. <_>

 

Beckett, Lee, Lester and they'd beat the Angels last year.

[suns]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/05/heyman-on-prince-buchholz-sheets.html

 

This is showing how terrible cleveland mangament is. Justin Masterson is 0-5.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Your argument has a major flaw. Boston would have gotten a 30 year old Cliff Lee for 1.5 years on his prime. An elite pitcher.

 

Which one is better right now?

 

Based on that argument you wouldn't deal Buchh for Halladay last offseason, because when Halladay was 25 he sucked. <_>

 

Beckett, Lee, Lester and they'd beat the Angels last year.

 

With Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz (who pitched a game the Red Sox should have won) the Red Sox still got swept so adding Lee would not have done anything unless he pitched a complete game and kept Papelbon from ever getting the ball.

 

Also Lee is going to make close to or over 100 mil next year on the market while Buchholz will be dirt cheap for the next couple years. Not surprised the Red Sox turned that down in the least.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, the retrospectoscope is always 20/20. Buchholz this time last yr was in the minors after coming off a s***** season. Lee was coming off a Cy Young yr and was putting his season together. If the sox thought they were one ace away from winning the WS, then dealing Buch for 1.5 seasons of Lee wouldnt have been that bad. Turns out, the sox made the playoffs, and their pitching wasnt the reason for their downfall in round 1, so the non-trade worked out for the sox. Having Buch not be injured at the beginning of the yr is a plus for Boston, but Lee has outpitched him since. Lee has a WHIP under 1 in the AL, that is awesome

[Wasatch]

I see Clay got another win, he's tearing it up. GO REDSOX!

[Lester82]

Well' date=' the retrospectoscope is always 20/20. Buchholz this time last yr was in the minors after coming off a s***** season. Lee was coming off a Cy Young yr and was putting his season together. If the sox thought they were one ace away from winning the WS, then dealing Buch for 1.5 seasons of Lee wouldnt have been that bad. Turns out, the sox made the playoffs, and their pitching wasnt the reason for their downfall in round 1, so the non-trade worked out for the sox. Having Buch not be injured at the beginning of the yr is a plus for Boston, but Lee has outpitched him since. Lee has a WHIP under 1 in the AL, that is awesome[/quote']

 

Yeah, that's ok. I'll take a young Buchholz going forward instead of a 30+ Cliff Lee. Now if given the choice between re-signing Josh Beckett or signing Lee in free agency, then the case looks better right now for Lee. Definitely. I think it was Dipre who advocated us doing that as well...

 

The Yankees didn't give up young prospects to get Sabathia pre-free agency, they may not give them up for Lee pre-free agency. And with Lee, when he was 1.5 seasons removed from free agency, you're still giving up the young ace-in-the-making Buchholz for Lee. And yes, Buchholz does look to be a soon ace. He's on the track now...

 

I agree with Joel Sherman and Brian Cashman -- wait, hold on to the prospects.

 

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/yankees_likely_will_make_c4N3HmHxrlnrvWgHP0tzlI