Thoughts on Adrian Beltre?

[neilpatrickharris]

There isn't one aspect of Kotchman's game that is as good as Doug Mientkievicz's game-- not one. Why would anyone be happy about him starting at first base?

 

Besides every aspect...

[Dipre]

Besides every aspect...

 

Doug Mientkewickz was a better hitter who struck out less and walked more (with the exception of one season) and hit for similar power, (406 to 405 SLG% Kotchman advantage) but got on base at a way better clip (360 to 337 OBP advantage Mient) and was better regarded with the glove.

[jacksonianmarch]

Its kinda like comparing the height of two midgets. Kotchmann never developed like the Angels and Braves thought he would. His career line is .269/.337/.406 which is worse than Melky Cabrera's season in 2009. So, his defense better be worth it, cause he hits like Melky and plays at a position that demands major offensive production.

[Dipre]

There are enough options for him not to have to play 1B consistently. He won't hit for power at Fenway.

 

So the Sox can:

 

1) Experiment with Mike Lowell at 1B.

 

2) A Varitek/Kotchman platoon: V-Mart plays C with Kotchman at 1B with a righty on the mound, and V-Mart plays 1B with Varitek at C with a lefty on the mound. As horrible as he was, Varitek still managed an .807 OPS with a very respectable .471 SLG% against them.

 

3) Get a 1B or 3B from the FA market.

 

4) Hold out until the TDL with a measure of number two and look for a bat.

[Dojji]

Adam LaRoche is still out there.

 

That kinda surprises me. He's not exactly a superstar, but he's serviceable on both sides of the ball. Why hasn't someone signed this guy? I would have thought the Mets or Mariners would be all over him.

[Dipre]

Adam LaRoche is still out there.

 

That kinda surprises me. He's not exactly a superstar, but he's serviceable on both sides of the ball. Why hasn't someone signed this guy? I would have thought the Mets or Mariners would be all over him.

 

I give up.

 

I'd rather LaRoche than Kotchman. If i said before i'd rather Kotchman, i said it for the sake of argument. Bring on LaRoche.

[Dojji]

Thing with Laroche is that he's 30. He's in his prime, and he's probably going to want a multiyear deal for power hitter money. I think he might be able to get it too. The question is, could he get it from Theo?

 

But he's definitely an interesting fallback plan, and I'd recommend at least courting him at this point, seeing what he thought of his time in Boston last year and whether he'd be willing to come back on his own terms.

[Dipre]

Thing with Laroche is that he's 30. He's in his prime' date=' [b']and he's probably going to want a multiyear deal for power hitter money.[/b] I think he might be able to get it too. The question is, could he get it from Theo?

 

But he's definitely an interesting fallback plan, and I'd recommend at least courting him at this point, seeing what he thought of his time in Boston last year and whether he'd be willing to come back on his own terms.

 

Hasn't gotten this far, and probably won't. Like Jose Valverde, he's in for a rude awakening.

[jacksonianmarch]

LaRoche has said that he wants 3 yrs at 10+ mil AAV. He isnt getting that, but that is exactly what Beltre is asking for. Plus, you had LaRoche and dealt him for Kotchman. There has to be a reason. Theo obviously likes Kotchman better, so why would he now go out and sign LaRoche to big money to supplant the guy he traded him for? It doesnt make sense. Plus, I have stated the financial predicament that a signing of this magnitude creates. Either of these guys needs to be worth not only their contract, but the luxury tax implications that come with their signing. Adding LaRoche would add tax on his contract plsu an additional 17.5% tax on the 2011 budget and a 10% lux tax increase for 2012. You make that exception for a player of Adrian Gonzalez' magnitude, but do you really do it for LaRoche?

[a700hitter]

http://www.overthemonster.com/2009/12/22/1212797/lets-talk-about-luxury-tax

 

We're both wrong. If the sox break the lux tax in 2010, then they will be hit with a 30% tax. They exceeded in 2007 and were hit with a 40% tax. They were under the tax in 2008, so they dropped brackets to 30%. They would need to be under the lux tax for 2 yrs after that to drop down another bracket. So, if the sox stayed under the limit this yr, they would be at 22.5% next season. If they break this yr, they are at 40% for 2011.

 

Also, the site below shows the sox current salary structure. Although this artice is actually wrong in how much the sox would need to pay based on the lux tax rules

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2009/12/15/breaking-bank-look-red-sox-payroll-2010

 

The sox are currently at $168 million with a lux tax for 2010 of $170 mil. If they can rekindle the deal for Lowell and save $3 million while taking on a $400K player in Ramirez, then they stay under the cap by $4.6 million. Lets just say for arguments sake that Beltre signs for $9 million AAV over 3 yrs. That means that the sox would exceed the lux tax by $4.4 million. That means that to sox would pay $1.3 million in lux tax. So, for 2010, Beltre will cost $10.3 million. Then, for 2011, the sox would be in the 40% tax bracket instead of the 22.5% tax bracket. And for 2012, they'd be in the 40% instead of the 30%. That means that Beltre not only is going to cost his contract plus lux tax, he will also cost 17.5% more for overall team lux tax in 2011 and 10% more in lux tax in 2012.

But don't they have to exceed the cap for the tax to apply? If they are over the cap in 2010, but the payroll falls under the cap in 2011 and 2012 due to contracts coming off the books, to what would the tax rate apply in 2011 and 2012?

[a700hitter]

Doug Mientkewickz was a better hitter who struck out less and walked more (with the exception of one season) and hit for similar power' date=' (406 to 405 SLG% Kotchman advantage) but got on base at a way better clip (360 to 337 OBP advantage Mient) and was better regarded with the glove.[/quote']I think it speaks volumes that the Braves (who are avery cost-conscious team) dumped a cost-controlled player like Kotchman for a couple of months of LaRoche. The Braves are a good organization.

[Imperial59]

The sox are currently at $168 million with a lux tax for 2010 of $170 mil. If they can rekindle the deal for Lowell and save $3 million while taking on a $400K player in Ramirez' date=' then they stay under the cap by $4.6 million. Lets just say for arguments sake that Beltre signs for $9 million AAV over 3 yrs. That means that the sox would exceed the lux tax by $4.4 million. That means that to sox would pay $1.3 million in lux tax. So, for 2010, Beltre will cost $10.3 million. Then, for 2011, the sox would be in the 40% tax bracket instead of the 22.5% tax bracket. And for 2012, they'd be in the 40% instead of the 30%. That means that Beltre not only is going to cost his contract plus lux tax, he will also cost 17.5% more for overall team lux tax in 2011 and 10% more in lux tax in 2012.[/quote']

 

Beltre will cost the Sox an additional $1.3 million and the Sox have over $50 million in salary coming off the books the next year so they probably won't have to pay a 40% tax. I don't get what the big deal is.

[Imperial59]

Exactly. We dont need him to be better than Lackey' date=' though. We just need him to throw 200 innings and continue pitching above average. Anything more than that is gravy.[/quote']

 

Yup, you just need him to "continue" pitching above average in the AL... for the second time in five years.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beltre will cost the Sox an additional $1.3 million and the Sox have over $50 million in salary coming off the books the next year so they probably won't have to pay a 40% tax. I don't get what the big deal is.

 

The sox do have some players coming off the books, but it isnt like they're gonna stay under the cap. Look at this...

 

Victor Martinez- 7 million. This frees up the catcher spot. Even if they maintain status quo and resign Victor, they are looking at 3-5 million more in AAV to keep him. Then there's the possibility that they sign Mauer, and that might be a 13 million or more AAV increase from this spot.

 

Jason Varitek- 3 million. This money is likely dead weight. But it might not be. If they sign Mauer, then they probably go with a backup who is cheap, but if they resign Martinez, then they might need to spend a couple mil to have a quality backup since Martinez is on the wrong side of thirty.

 

Julio Lugo- 9 million. This is truly dead weight and will be off the books.

 

Mike Lowell- 12 million. This really is a question anyways since Lowell may be gone and Beltre may be coming in.

 

David Ortiz- 12 million. He does have an option and depending on his season, they might pick it up. But I do find that hard to believe.

 

Josh Beckett- 10 million. This opens up the #2 spot in the rotation and the sox are said to be actively trying to resign him.

 

That's a total of....

53 million dollars. And right now, the sox are set at 168 million, which is 10 million below the 2011 predicted cap of 178 million. But, lets look at the holes opened with such a deal.

 

Catcher spot

Backup catcher spot

Third base

Designated hitter

#2 starter

 

Lets say that the sox resign Victor Martinez for an AAV of $12 million. That seems pretty reasonable. Then they sign a Jose Molina clone for 2 yrs and 4 million total. Between Varitek and Martinez and the new backup catcher, the overall cost is $14 million AAV.

 

Then, lets say the sox sign Beltre this offseason for $9 million AAV.

 

Lets say the sox renegotiate with Papi since he is such a Boston staple and get him on the cheap at $8 million for 2011.

 

Lets say the sox pony up the big bucks and re-sign Beckett to a deal surpassing Lackey's. Lets say 5yrs 90 million.

 

That brings the total AAV to $51 million, which is about $12 million below the projected cap. Then consider arbitration increases to Jacoby Ellsbury, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, and the possibility that Buchholz qualifies as a super 2. You might be talking about $10 million or so right there. So, even if the sox do nothing but stay internal aside from Beltre, you are talking about being right on the borderline. If they go out and sign Mauer, which they very well might do, then all of this goes out the window.

 

Also, if they decide to pass on Mauer, but trade for Adrian Gonzalez, then extend him, the AAV jumps astronomically. I really dont see the sox staying status quo, though. I see them adding a middle of the order bat by 2011.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yup' date=' you just need him to "continue" pitching above average in the AL... for the second time in five years.[/quote']

 

You need to see what above average actually is before making such statements.

[Imperial59]

You need to see what above average actually is before making such statements.

 

I would LOVE for Vazquez to repeat one of his "above average" performances like he had in 2004, 2006 or 2008 in the American League.

 

[Dipre]

Per gathered info and my own calculations, the average starter ranged from a 4.45 to a 4.60 ERA between 2004-2009 in the AL, with a bit less 160 ip as the median, (for pitchers who threw more than 100 innings) so the Vasquez argument can be divided into two parts.

 

1) He was around average in keeping runs off the board.

 

2) He was very much above average in the other important part of pitching, which is throwing innings, which explains his very high WAR.

 

All in all, he'll be good for what the Yankees need him, but he's not good at keeping runs of the board due to his extreme long-ball tendencies.

[Dojji]

How about Nomar for 1B?

 

(I know, I know, but someone had to bring it up and we need a utility man anyway)

[Dipre]

How about Nomar for 1B?

 

(I know, I know, but someone had to bring it up and we need a utility man anyway)

 

No?

 

At least Kotchman is healthy.

[Imperial59]

Per gathered info and my own calculations, the average starter ranged from a 4.45 to a 4.60 ERA between 2004-2009 in the AL, with a bit less 160 ip as the median, (for pitchers who threw more than 100 innings) so the Vasquez argument can be divided into two parts.

 

1) He was around average in keeping runs off the board.

 

2) He was very much above average in the other important part of pitching, which is throwing innings, which explains his very high WAR.

 

All in all, he'll be good for what the Yankees need him, but he's not good at keeping runs of the board due to his extreme long-ball tendencies.

 

Average AL ERA in 2008 - 4.35

Vazquez - 4.67

 

Average AL ERA in 2006 - 4.56

Vazquez - 4.84

 

Average AL ERA in 2004 - 4.63

Vazquez - 4.91

 

I could care less if Jacko thinks he was "above average" in those years. I would love to Vazquez to pitch 300 innings for the Yankees if he's going to be that much worse than the league average pitcher as far as allowing runs.

[Emmz]

I know that ERA isn't the most valid stat to compare pitchers, but in the end, it's what really matters, and Vasquez will have an ERA around 4.50 this season. Jacko, any others, you can quote this.

[Emmz]

How about Tug Hullet?

[Lester82]

I still remember watching Javy Vazquez on a Saturday afternoon game on FOX in '08. He was pitching with a lead versus the Tampa Rays, let's just say the White Sox didn't have a lead anymore after above-average boy Javy choked it.

 

I just recall it because it was late-season and we were in a div. battle with Tampa.

[Emmz]

I remember when Esteban Loaiza was having a good year with the White Sox, and the Twins stomped him and denied him a 20-win season. Boy how the mighty have fallen.

[CoachC.]

What are Lowell's chances of being back for the start of the season?

[SoxGirrl1994]

i'm thinking the chances are pretty good but thats just me

[Emmz]

Eh, I don't know if we can get rid of him, but starting? I'm not really sure. If he does, it'll be at 1B. I'd rather have him at first than Kotchman. Anything's better than Kotchman.

 

His offense is still valuable if he can stay healthy, it's just that he's going to be a liability on defense.

[Sox Fan on Cape]

What are Lowell's chances of being back for the start of the season?

 

I'm assuming that you are referring to returning from the thumb surgery. According to reports, they estimate 6-8 weeks and that he should be ready for Spring Training.

[Spudboy]

What are Lowell's chances of being back for the start of the season?

 

1 in 5?

[162watch]

Ive never wanted Beltre, but as of right now i feel it is the best decision