Jason Bay going to the Mets

[Dipre]

Youkilis is the PROTOTYPICAL 4 hitter. I don't think people realize just how great he is. He was 6th in the majors in OPS last year, and he's a career .344/.443/.559 hitter with RISP.

 

The last two years, with runners in scoring position Youk has hit .362/.486/.589 and .374/.445/.646. In all seriousness, he might quietly be the best clutch hitter in baseball.

 

Here's my issue with Youk.

 

He's much more of a three than a four hitter. The stats don't show this, but Youk is not a very aggresive hitter. He's not your prototypical four because he's up there looking to get on base, not drive in runs. It's simply not his mentality.

[Imperial59]

I like you.

 

A lot.

 

Stick around, start posting more.

 

I appreciate it, but I hope I make more of a name for myself with the stats I provide than I do by simply poking fun at the easiest target on the forum.

[Keeper]

Here's my issue with Youk.

 

He's much more of a three than a four hitter. The stats don't show this, but Youk is not a very aggresive hitter. He's not your prototypical four because he's up there looking to get on base, not drive in runs. It's simply not his mentality.

 

I thought RBIs weren't an important stat...

[Imperial59]

Here's my issue with Youk.

 

He's much more of a three than a four hitter. The stats don't show this, but Youk is not a very aggresive hitter. He's not your prototypical four because he's up there looking to get on base, not drive in runs. It's simply not his mentality.

 

I would agree with you if we were talking about earlier in his career. But the last couple of years, he's markedly changed his approach at the plate when runners get on base. When no one's on, he's one of the most patient hitters in baseball. But when a hitter gets on base, or gets into scoring position he completely changes gears and gets quite aggressive.

[Red Foreman]

I thought RBIs weren't an important stat...

 

 

They are for a clean-up hitter who will presumably have a lot of men on base in front of him.

[Keeper]

They are for a clean-up hitter who will presumably have a lot of men on base in front of him.

 

I agree. I'm just saying I've heard a lot of posters say it is a garbage stat.

[Imperial59]

They are for a clean-up hitter who will presumably have a lot of men on base in front of him.

 

Well the last couple of years, he's batted cleanup in 131 games and he's driven in 105 runs. Over 150 games, that would mean 120 RBI. I don't get what the problem is.

[Keeper]

I also think Youk would be more than adequate as a cleanup hitter. The numbers with RISP speak for themselves.

[Red Foreman]

I agree. I'm just saying I've heard a lot of posters say it is a garbage stat.

 

 

It's not a garbage stat it's just not a good stat to use to compare players head to head.

[CoachC.]

It's not a garbage stat it's just not a good stat to use to compare players head to head.

 

Great username

[Dojji]

Yup.

 

I still don't understand why an NL team has paid so much for a guy that should be a DH in 2-3 years.

 

I'll miss Bay's production at the plate. But I'm glad the Sox did not over-pay for a middling talent here.

 

I don't get the assertion that he'll be a DH in a few years. It smacks as conventional wisdom or stereotype rather than analysis. Sure, he's not very good now defensively, but he's played pretty consistently to his baseline since he came back from surgery and he's only like 31, it's going to be 3-4 years before you would really expect decline to impact his performance to any great degree. Add in the fact that you don't bring in a guy like Bay to be a defensive wizard anyway and I just don't really see the impending disaster.

 

Now when he does decline in earnest it's not going to be pretty, and if he was 34 I wouldn't touch him at all at that price, but I just don't see why a 4 year contract for a 31 year old player is such a bad deal. In fact as ballplayers go that strikes me as a pretty fair price considering that Bay was the best or second best hitter in the FA pool. He'll be a very useful player through the life of his contract and the good will probably still outweigh the bad at the end of the deal.

 

And as for "middling talent," I don't know what you're smoking but I hope you're enjoying it. Bay was our best power threat last year. He had a low batting average but all his other numbers played up to a very consistent, high level of offense that he's put up every year but his injury-riddled 2007. A consistent .380 OBP and a consistent .520-.540 SLG are not "middling" in anyyone's lexicon, and neither are 30 HR's a year

 

Jason Bay is one of the best offensive players in the league.

[BSN07]

We really didn't lose anything. When we signed Scutaro, we lost the #29 pick in the first round and when the Braves signed Wagner we got an even better pick at #20. Numbers 1-15 are all protected, so getting a #20 pick because of free agency is the 5th best pick we could have gotten. In addition, we picked up two first round draft picks (Wagner and Bay) and a second round pick (Bay).

 

I think we'll somehow survive with only 4 extra draft picks next year lol

 

But.... the Sox gained draft picks from Billy Wagner and Jason Bay signing elsewhere. I could care less about the draft pick they lost from signing Scutaro

 

Toronto will be receiving a 2nd rounder for Scutaro. It was brought up when he was signed originally. A lot of people were pissed the Sox were giving up their 1st rounder for Scutaro. But if they signed a better Type A(Lackey, Holliday), Toronto would be getting screwed again by a AL East rival and only recieveing a 2nd rounder for their troubles. Thus making the Scutaro signing far more palatable.

 

You're not really asking this, are you? Cameron and Bay were comparable win-production-wise last year and most years before. Cameron's value came largely through his glove, Bay's largely through his bat. Scutaro is so much better with the bat that it outweighs their difference with the glove. This seems obvious.

 

Fangraphs has Scutaro as the 5th most valuable SS last year, with 4.5 WAR, 9th in fielding, 6th offensively. He was the 12th most valuable SS in 2008. The Red Sox did not have a capable SS in 2009. He'll be a significant upgrade if he stays healthy and he'll provide some nice competition for Lowrie if Jed wants to take the position back.

Nice post

It's like arguing with a shrew' date=' isn't it e1? [/quote']

I've learned it's best not to respond to him. I rather sit back and read what he is sayign and laugh. But even I can't avoid him all the time

[Dojji]

A second rounder is still more than I'd have given up for Scutaro.

 

I mean I do understand Theo's thought process here, but at the same time that's the same thought process that brought Julio Lugo to Boston, and it's a mistake I'm not keen to repeat.

[Dipre]

I thought RBIs weren't an important stat...

 

Please stop putting words in my mouth.

 

Did you hear me mention RBI as a stat?

 

I said "Driving runs in" for a cleanup hitter. Completely different things.

 

I would agree with you if we were talking about earlier in his career. But the last couple of years' date=' he's markedly changed his approach at the plate when runners get on base. When no one's on, he's one of the most patient hitters in baseball. But when a hitter gets on base, or gets into scoring position he completely changes gears and gets quite aggressive.[/quote']

 

His approach, IMHO, is still to get on base, he's not very aggressive with RISP. It's the same complaint i had with Bay, though i will admit Youk is an extremely tough out either way, his approach doesn't sit well with the whole "driving runs in" mentality.

 

I don't get the assertion that he'll be a DH in a few years. It smacks as conventional wisdom or stereotype rather than analysis. Sure, he's not very good now defensively, but he's played pretty consistently to his baseline since he came back from surgery and he's only like 31, it's going to be 3-4 years before you would really expect decline to impact his performance to any great degree. Add in the fact that you don't bring in a guy like Bay to be a defensive wizard anyway and I just don't really see the impending disaster.

 

Now when he does decline in earnest it's not going to be pretty, and if he was 34 I wouldn't touch him at all at that price, but I just don't see why a 4 year contract for a 31 year old player is such a bad deal. In fact as ballplayers go that strikes me as a pretty fair price considering that Bay was the best or second best hitter in the FA pool. He'll be a very useful player through the life of his contract and the good will probably still outweigh the bad at the end of the deal.

 

And as for "middling talent," I don't know what you're smoking but I hope you're enjoying it. Bay was our best power threat last year. He had a low batting average but all his other numbers played up to a very consistent, high level of offense that he's put up every year but his injury-riddled 2007. A consistent .380 OBP and a consistent .520-.540 SLG are not "middling" in anyyone's lexicon, and neither are 30 HR's a year

 

Jason Bay is one of the best offensive players in the league.

 

Couple things:

 

1) Bay's defense has declined steadily over the past few years, concerns about his knee and shoulder were obviously legit, since they have been mentioned by multiple sources since he hit Free Agency. He'll be a DH soon.

 

2) The Mets overpaid for him. I'm glad the Sox didn't.

 

3) He's a good offensive player, but not one of the best in the league. Some objectivity is in order. He's not "Middling" though, i'll agree with that.

 

4) Your passion for Bay doesn't let you see the fact that there are health reasons that shied away everyone but the Mets from even handing Bay a fifth year-vesting option. They did, and they'll pay for it. If you looked at it objectively, you'd understand, but your current thought process is hampered by passion and bias.

 

5) To the bolded part, are you ever going to stop with the smug comments and the backhanded personal attacks? It's his opinion. Some people didn't like Bay, and rightfully so, if you dislike their opinion counter it with stats, and stop with the smug attitude. This is like the 999th time i tell you this.

[Mr Crunchy]

35hr/125rbi guys who can handle the Boston media and the pressure of playing NY 18XS a year dont grow on trees..We lost this guy over what amounts to be nickels.

Im less than pleased, in fact it sucks but Im sure Mike Cameron will be able to give us similar#s.

Jesus fkn Christ is this nauseating.

[Dipre]

20 million dollars is not pennies on the dollar, or nickels, or any other small denomination currency.

 

The total value of his contract is 5 years/80 million. According to reports, they gave him a very easy vesting option for the fifth year.

[Dojji]

4) Your passion for Bay doesn't let you see the fact that there are health reasons that shied away everyone but the Mets from even handing Bay a fifth year-vesting option. They did, and they'll pay for it. If you looked at it objectively, you'd understand, but your current thought process is hampered by passion and bias.

 

I don't see the big health concerns, Dipre. He did have a bad year because of his health problems in 2007, but he's followed that up with two consecutive years of full health. That's usually enough time to say a guy is over his problems. And again, he's going into his age 31 year. While injuries might catch up with him by the end of the contract, if they did I'd call that more ordinary aging than any specific injury risks associated with something in Bay's specific past.

 

I don't think Bay is any more likely than the average ballplayer to be significantly injured over the next 5 years. All told he's less of a health risk than guys like JD Drew whose signing you defend fairly passionately (and for the record I agree with you there, I just think it's hypocritical to downplay Drew's injury risks while inflating Bay's)

 

Personally I think that the Mets' contract offer is fairly defensible, considering the level of consistent offensive production Bay has put up since he joined the league. There's only 1 year in the deal that would run past the age 35 threshhold where you're starting to really risk severe decline, and the Mets really needed the kind of power that can play in their cavernous ballpark, so it's easy enough to see why a RHH who can hit 30 regularly in PNC would be worth taking a risk on.

 

are you ever going to stop with the smug comments and the backhanded personal attacks[/qUOTE]

 

Dipre, I respect you man, you know that, but you're really not in a position to talk. The only difference in my personal attacks and yours is the style of delivery.

[Dipre]

I don't see the big health concerns, Dipre. He did have a bad year because of his health problems in 2007, but he's followed that up with two consecutive years of full health. That's usually enough time to say a guy is over his problems. And again, he's going into his age 31 year. While injuries might catch up with him by the end of the contract, if they did I'd call that more ordinary aging than any specific injury risks associated with something in Bay's specific past.

 

I don't think Bay is any more likely than the average ballplayer to be significantly injured over the next 5 years. All told he's less of a health risk than guys like JD Drew whose signing you defend fairly passionately (and for the record I agree with you there, I just think it's hypocritical to downplay Drew's injury risks while inflating Bay's)

 

Personally I think that the Mets' contract offer is fairly defensible, considering the level of consistent offensive production Bay has put up since he joined the league. There's only 1 year in the deal that would run past the age 35 threshhold where you're starting to really risk severe decline, and the Mets really needed the kind of power that can play in their cavernous ballpark, so it's easy enough to see why a guy who can hit 30 in PNC would be worth overpaying for anyway.

 

This is not something that is being made up.

 

The Sox backed up mid-year from their initial offer because of health concerns. Other interested teams wouldn't budge from a four-year offer because of health concerns. The deal with the Mets isn't completed yet, because Bay is yet to pass his physical, and sources report that if he fails it, the deal may not go through. You don't see the health concerns, but MLB teams obviously see them.

 

Who do i believe?

 

 

Dipre, I respect you man, you know that, but you're really not in a position to talk. The only difference in my personal attacks and yours is the style of delivery.

 

Actualy, i am.

 

Lots of people here are working hard to keep the place peaceful. As someone who has openly complained about a number of other members (me included), you should lead by example.

[Dojji]

This is not something that is being made up.

 

The Sox backed up mid-year from their initial offer because of health concerns. Other interested teams wouldn't budge from a four-year offer because of health concerns. The deal with the Mets isn't completed yet, because Bay is yet to pass his physical, and sources report that if he fails it, the deal may not go through. You don't see the health concerns, but MLB teams obviously see them.

 

Who do i believe?

 

I guess I just don't see what the concerns center around. Has that been reported? Was there an injury that was kept from the sportswriters? Is it something about the knee problems from a couple years ago? Because just generically, just based on the numbers and the news reports I've read, it makes no sense to be overwhelmingly concerned about Bay's health -- no more than for any player you're giving a multi year megabucks deal to anyhow.

 

As for taking a physical, that tends to be a formality, as well you know. Without knowing too many specifics, I wouldn't get too hyped up about the fact that the physical associated with a deal that only came public yesterday is yet to be completed.

 

Actualy, i am.

 

Lots of people here are working hard to keep the place peaceful. As someone who has openly complained about a number of other members (me included), you should lead by example.

 

I suppose you have a point, but calling one of the top 5 HR hitters in the American League last year, and a consistent .900OPS guy, a "middling" player, should entitle you to a bit of ridicule IMHO. It's one of the ways forumites convince each other to get properly informed after all.

[Dipre]

I guess I just don't see what the concerns center around. Has that been reported? Was there an injury that was kept from the sportswriters? Is it something about the knee problems from a couple years ago? Because just generically, just based on the numbers and the news reports I've read, it makes no sense to be overwhelmingly concerned about Bay's health -- no more than for any player you're giving a multi year megabucks deal to anyhow.

 

As for taking a physical, that tends to be a formality, as well you know. Without knowing too many specifics, I wouldn't get too hyped up about the fact that the physical associated with a deal that only came public yesterday is yet to be completed.

 

Doiji, the "Jason Bay knee and shoulder concerns" have been reported throughout the off-season, and if you take a peek at random articles pertaining the Sox and Bay, you will see that his knee and shoulder have been a concern since mid-season. This is not a new thing, and seeing Bay's production, doesn't it surprise you the Mets were really his only suitor?

 

The state of both his knee and shoulder are true concerns, in fact, i read this gem this morning:

 

But Bay comes with baggage: he strikes out often (162 times last season) and has hit .300 only once in his career. His defense is also a potential problem, given that he won’t have the Green Monster to cover up his flaws in the field.

 

Instead, Citi Field could expose him as “a notch above (Hideki) Matsui” in the words of one talent evaluator. The Red Sox were sufficiently worried about Bay’s long-term durability; his knees and shoulders are what could keep Bay from passing this weekend’s physical in New York.

 

Bob Klapisch, Foxsports.com

 

One of many to present concerns about Bay's health.

 

I suppose you have a point, but calling one of the top 5 HR hitters in the American League last year, and a consistent .900OPS guy, a "middling" player, should entitle you to a bit of ridicule IMHO. It's one of the ways forumites convince each other to get properly informed after all.

 

That's why i said to back it up with statistics.

 

It would have been easy to just post his OPS numbers, just like you did right now. Besides, we're not talking about an annoying noob or someone who's regarded as an ******* on the site, but a contributing member who usually has intelligent points and avoids controversy. And he's active, something the site needs.You're not helping by making him feel insecure about posting on the site.

[Spudboy]

I guess I made a poor choice of adjectives to describe Bay. My point was, and remains, I'm glad that the Sox did not commit $80.mil over 5 years to a player of his talent level. I just don't think he's worth it. And apparently, neither do the Sox. Or every other team not named the Mets.

[riverside sluggers]

I guess I just don't see what the concerns center around. Has that been reported? Was there an injury that was kept from the sportswriters? Is it something about the knee problems from a couple years ago? Because just generically, just based on the numbers and the news reports I've read, it makes no sense to be overwhelmingly concerned about Bay's health -- no more than for any player you're giving a multi year megabucks deal to anyhow.

 

As for taking a physical, that tends to be a formality, as well you know. Without knowing too many specifics, I wouldn't get too hyped up about the fact that the physical associated with a deal that only came public yesterday is yet to be completed.

 

 

 

I suppose you have a point, but calling one of the top 5 HR hitters in the American League last year, and a consistent .900OPS guy, a "middling" player, should entitle you to a bit of ridicule IMHO. It's one of the ways forumites convince each other to get properly informed after all.

 

SI.com's Jon Heyman suggests Jason Bay's physical examination for the Mets might not be a formality and could turn into a "marathon."

The Red Sox found medical issues with the 31-year-old outfielder when they traded for him in 2008 and the same problems may prevent a smooth finalization of Bay's rumored four-year, $66 million deal with the Mets. An official announcement of the signing is not expected until early next week, so the two sides do have some time to work out any complications.

[jacksonianmarch]

Did Dipre say he was working hard to keep the place peaceful? Really? This coming from the guy who starts fights with EVERYONE? Think about the events of a few weeks ago when you found out that most people do not like your s*** and you abruptly left, only to find that you weren't missed and we actually got along better in your absence? Cmon now. Dojji called you out on minimizing Jason Bay's worth. He's right. You are trying to justify it by saying he's a health risk, which he very well may be. But thus far, he's produced as an elite level hitter.

[Imperial59]

I guess I made a poor choice of adjectives to describe Bay. My point was' date=' and remains, I'm glad that the Sox did not commit $80.mil over 5 years to a player of his talent level. I just don't think he's worth it. And apparently, neither do the Sox. Or every other team not named the Mets.[/quote']

 

And we all know what sound decisions the Mets make.

[riverside sluggers]

Its just an overpaid deal for the Mets because by year 4 or 5, he's likely to be traded off to an AL team

[Imperial59]

Did Dipre say he was working hard to keep the place peaceful? Really? This coming from the guy who starts fights with EVERYONE? Think about the events of a few weeks ago when you found out that most people do not like your s*** and you abruptly left' date=' only to find that you weren't missed and we actually got along better in your absence?[/quote']

 

Can you please stay on topic and cut out the trolling please?

[Dipre]

Did Dipre say he was working hard to keep the place peaceful? Really? This coming from the guy who starts fights with EVERYONE? Think about the events of a few weeks ago when you found out that most people do not like your s*** and you abruptly left' date=' only to find that you weren't missed and we actually got along better in your absence? Cmon now. Dojji called you out on minimizing Jason Bay's worth. He's right. You are trying to justify it by saying he's a health risk, which he very well may be. But thus far, he's produced as an elite level hitter.[/quote']

 

********.

 

Couple of things:

 

1) We are trying to enforce peace around here, no name-calling etc., your case is different because you're a biased idiot who contributes little to the discussion but attempts to minimize the Red Sox and any sort of enthusiasm from us for our team. So shut the f*** up. If you try to pick a fight you'll get it, you biased hypocrite.

 

2) No one has minimized Bay's production. Spudboy had a poor choice of words which he has admitted, but the health issues are legit. He was a productive bat, i have stated this, but if the Sox decided not to sign him because of health concerns which are legit, but no one ever mentioned lack of offensive production as the basis for this happening, so stop your ridiculous strawman. Your biased opinion is not welcome.

 

3) When you stop your absolutely ridiculous and yawn-inducing bias-filled comments, then i will begin respecting you and i will stop having at you just like the rest of the site does.

[Dipre]

Can you please stay on topic and cut out the trolling please?

 

I thought this site was meant for baseball discussion, not trolling and ********.

 

Maybe i'm wrong.

[Dipre]

That's why i said to back it up with statistics.

 

It would have been easy to just post his OPS numbers, just like you did right now. Besides, we're not talking about an annoying noob or someone who's regarded as an ******* on the site, but a contributing member who usually has intelligent points and avoids controversy. And he's active, something the site needs.You're not helping by making him feel insecure about posting on the site.

 

This part referred to JacksonianFAIL specifically.

[Plumpamania]

The Mets needed to make some sort of splash this offseason. They lost Delgado this offseason and any viable catching option. Their offense last year was so putrid I believe they had to sign Bay or Holliday as Citifield would be as barren as Shea. As the point goes to show a winning product brings fans in moreso than a fancy new park.

 

Bay won't last the 5 years of his contract...moreso like the Pedro contract 3 years then he'll break down.