Offensive Regression to be Expected?

[Imperial59]

The only yr we regressed' date=' we lost 2 of our middle of the order presences in Matsui and Posada, while replacing them with crap and more crap. The Yankees have been so offensively successful because they get prime production from historically weak offensive positions. Posada, Jeter, and Cano give them top 3 level production from C, 2B, and SS which means that they need less out of the rest. That being said, their two best hitters occupy the corner IF positions, but the point remains[/quote']

 

I expect the Yankees to be a great offensive team next year as well, just not quite as good. They replaced Damon (126 OPS+) and Matsui (131 OPS+ ) with two guys who likely won't match that kind of production. Another 3 members of their lineups had a career best OPS+ or a tie for a career best OPS+ in Jeter, Swisher and Melky. And statistically the chances of 1/3 of a team's lineup posting back-to-back career stats is very small.

 

They remind me of the 2003 Red Sox offense. They were a great offense to begin with, but they had a lot of guys who had career years and the next year even though they returned many of the same guys, the offense wasn't quite as good.

[Gom]

Everyone is assuming that Damon and Matsui will produce at similar levels. I highly doubt Damon and Matsui will repeat their OPS+ of 126 and 131, respectively. I do expect Granderson to rise, if for the only reason that the Yankees have the talent to sit him against lefties, and I expect a higher slugging from Nick and a lower OBP as teams will pitch to him more, considering Tex and Arod follow him in the lineup.

[Tyler Durden]

I expect the Yankees to be a great offensive team next year as well' date=' just not quite as good.[b'] They replaced Damon (126 OPS+) and Matsui (131 OPS+ ) with two guys who likely won't match that kind of production.[/b] Another 3 members of their lineups had a career best OPS+ or a tie for a career best OPS+ in Jeter, Swisher and Melky. And statistically the chances of 1/3 of a team's lineup posting back-to-back career stats is very small.

 

They remind me of the 2003 Red Sox offense. They were a great offense to begin with, but they had a lot of guys who had career years and the next year even though they returned many of the same guys, the offense wasn't quite as good.

 

Ummmm....

 

CAREER OPS+

 

Nick Johnson- 125

Curtis Granderson- 113

 

(^ will likely go up in Yankee Stadium)

 

Hideki Matsui- 124

Johnny Damon- 105

 

(^ will likely go down outside of Yankee Stadium)

[yankees228]

Ummmm....

 

CAREER OPS+

 

Nick Johnson- 125

Curtis Granderson- 113

 

(^ will likely go up in Yankee Stadium)

 

Hideki Matsui- 124

Johnny Damon- 105

 

(^ will likely go down outside of Yankee Stadium)

 

The only numbers that are important (for Matsui and Damon), are their numbers last year, because we're discussing whether or not the Yankees are going to regress offensively.

[Tyler Durden]

The only numbers that are important (for Matsui and Damon)' date=' are their numbers last year, because we're discussing whether or not the Yankees are going to regress offensively.[/quote']

 

Yankee Stadium does wonders for left handed hitters... they'll put up similar numbers

[yankees228]

Yankee Stadium does wonders for left handed hitters... they'll put up similar numbers

 

Not saying I disagree, just pointing out that you can't cite their career numbers as evidence in your argument.

 

EDIT: Career numbers of Damon and Matsui.

[Imperial59]

Everyone is assuming that Damon and Matsui will produce at similar levels. I highly doubt Damon and Matsui will repeat their OPS+ of 126 and 131' date=' respectively. I do expect Granderson to rise, if for the only reason that the Yankees have the talent to sit him against lefties, and I expect a higher slugging from Nick and a lower OBP as teams will pitch to him more, considering Tex and Arod follow him in the lineup.[/quote']

 

Whether or not Damon or Matsui produce at similar levels next year have absolutely nothing to do with whether or not the Yankees offense regresses next year or not. That's an obvious straw man, I don't know why both you and Jacksonian continue to bring it up other than to distract from a logical discussion of the Yankees offense next year.

[Imperial59]

Ummmm....

 

CAREER OPS+

 

Nick Johnson- 125

Curtis Granderson- 113

 

(^ will likely go up in Yankee Stadium)

 

Hideki Matsui- 124

Johnny Damon- 105

 

(^ will likely go down outside of Yankee Stadium)

 

The members of the Yankees lineup that performed above their career averages includes Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Cano, Cabrera and Posada. That's 2/3rds of the Yankees lineup (A-Rod matched his career OPS+ exactly). So if you expect players to regress to career averages, then the Yankees should expect MAJOR offensive regression.

 

Thanks for making my point stronger :thumbsup:

[yankees228]

The members of the Yankees lineup that performed above their career averages includes Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Cano, Cabrera and Posada. That's 2/3rds of the Yankees lineup (A-Rod matched his career OPS+ exactly). So if you expect players to regress to career averages, then the Yankees should expect MAJOR offensive regression.

 

Thanks for making my point stronger :thumbsup:

 

This isn't necessarily fair. Cano and Cabrera are two players who are entering their prime years, so it's a reasonable possibility that they actually might improve, or maintain, what they did last season. In addition, if A-Rod plays a full year, he'll contribute more offensively than he did in 2009.

[Imperial59]

This isn't necessarily fair. Cano and Cabrera are two players who are entering their prime years' date=' so it's a reasonable possibility that they actually might improve, or maintain, what they did last season. In addition, if A-Rod plays a full year, he'll contribute more offensively than he did in 2009.[/quote']

 

I agree with you. I was just arguing the other poster's point that Granderson and Johnson are improvements over last year's production from Damon and Matui's production because they have better career OPS+. I think we can both agree that's ludicrous.

 

As I've stated multiple times now, I expect guys like Cano and Mekly to reproduced their production from last year. But Johnson and Granderson are likely a downgrade from the production the Yankees got from Damon and Matsui last year, and not counting those players, 1/3 of the Yankees lineup had career years, which means there's a highly likely chance of regression.

 

At least that's the conventional wisdom. If you believe otherwise, feel free to provide an form of evidence other than your personal opinion.

 

P.S. - Me and my girlfriend have been drinking all night (we both have days off tomorrow) so sorry for the typose.

[Keeper]

I don't see how Granderson is a downgrade when he could very well hit 40 HRs next year and is a much better outfielder than Damon. And if Johnson stays healthy and continues to be an OBP machine, their offense doesn't really miss a beat. Johnson could easily hit 15 HRs or so in Yankee Stadium. Potentially, they could be getting 55 combined HRs from Granderson and Johnson. Damon and Matsui gave them 52 last year.

[Imperial59]

I don't see how Granderson is a downgrade when he could very well hit 40 HRs next year and is a much better outfielder than Damon. And if Johnson stays healthy and continues to be an OBP machine' date=' their offense doesn't really miss a beat. Johnson could easily hit 15 HRs or so in Yankee Stadium. Potentially, they could be getting 55 combined HRs from Granderson and Johnson. Damon and Matsui gave them 52 last year.[/quote']

 

How are Granderson and Johnson downgrades?

 

Well Damon hit .282/.365/.489 last year with a 126 OPS+. Granderson on the other hand has only had an OPS+ of 126 or better one year of his career and has averaged an OPS+ of about 111 the last two years. That's park adjusted so you can't claim that Yankee Stadium will raise his OPS+ by 15 points.

 

Matsui hit .274/.367/.509 with a 131 OPS+ last year. Johnson has averaged an OPS+ around 123 the last couple years and over his career he's averaged around 100 games a year as a starter so there's a good chance that you won't be getting the same kind of offensive production out of him that you did out of Matsui last year and there's also a good chance that you'll be getting bench player production for 50 or so games.

[ORS]

Ummmm....

 

CAREER OPS+

 

Nick Johnson- 125

Curtis Granderson- 113

 

(^ will likely go up in Yankee Stadium)

 

Hideki Matsui- 124

Johnny Damon- 105

 

(^ will likely go down outside of Yankee Stadium)

Uh, no.

 

OPS+ adjusts for park.

[Keeper]

How are Granderson and Johnson downgrades?

 

Well Damon hit .282/.365/.489 last year with a 126 OPS+. Granderson on the other hand has only had an OPS+ of 126 or better one year of his career and has averaged an OPS+ of about 111 the last two years. That's park adjusted so you can't claim that Yankee Stadium will raise his OPS+ by 15 points.

 

Why can't you? Before Damon played at the New Yankee Stadium, he never had an OPS+ of 126 in his entire career. Damon's OPS+ in '07 and '08 were 96 and 118. Granderson's OPS+ in '07 and '08 were 135 and 123. I would say Granderson is more than capable of matching Damon's offensive production. That right field porch did wonders for Damon. It stands to reason it'll also do wonders for Granderson. Besides, you also conveniently ignored the fact that he's a much better outfielder.

 

Matsui hit .274/.367/.509 with a 131 OPS+ last year. Johnson has averaged an OPS+ around 123 the last couple years and over his career he's averaged around 100 games a year as a starter so there's a good chance that you won't be getting the same kind of offensive production out of him that you did out of Matsui last year and there's also a good chance that you'll be getting bench player production for 50 or so games.

 

I'll grant you that Matsui's production will be harder to match, but Johnson's career OBP sits at .402 while Matsui's sits at .370. Matsui may have more power than Johnson, but Johnson makes less outs than Matsui. If he is healthy next year, and I know that's a big if, I could see him putting up similar numbers to what he did in 2005.

 

I'm not trying to pump up the Yankees or make them out to be better than they are. I'm just being realistic.

[Imperial59]

Why can't you? Before Damon played at the New Yankee Stadium' date=' he never had an OPS+ of 126 in his entire career. Damon's OPS+ in '07 and '08 were 96 and 118. Granderson's OPS+ in '07 and '08 were 135 and 123. I would say Granderson is more than capable of matching Damon's offensive production. That right field porch did wonders for Damon. It stands to reason it'll also do wonders for Granderson. Besides, you also conveniently ignored the fact that he's a much better outfielder.[/quote']

 

You do know that I used park adjusted stats, right? Just because a player had a career year in a contract year, doesn't mean it was because of the stadium.

 

I'll grant you that Matsui's production will be harder to match' date=' but Johnson's career OBP sits at .402 while Matsui's sits at .370. Matsui may have more power than Johnson, but Johnson makes less outs than Matsui. If he is healthy next year, and I know that's a big if, I could see him putting up similar numbers to what he did in 2005.[/quote']

 

There's more to hitting than OBP. To put the loss of Matsui in perspective, Bay had an OPS+ of 134 last year, Matsui had an OPS+ of 131. I don't think people realize just what a huge loss in offense the Yankees saw when Matsui signed elsewhere.

[Keeper]

You do know that I used park adjusted stats' date=' right? Just because a player had a career year in a contract year, doesn't mean it was because of the stadium.[/quote']

 

You're right. I'm sure NYS had nothing to do with Damon's success last season where his OPS was .915 at home and .795 on the road. Where he hit 17 of his 24 HRs.

 

There's more to hitting than OBP. To put the loss of Matsui in perspective' date=' Bay had an OPS+ of 134 last year, Matsui had an OPS+ of 131. I don't think people realize just what a huge loss in offense the Yankees saw when Matsui signed elsewhere.[/quote']

 

The object of hitting is to not make outs. Matsui clearly has more power than Johnson, but Johnson is better at not making outs. If Johnson bats 2nd, he will score a lot of runs. If it's a loss, the loss is marginal. The Yankees still have a lot of thunder.

[Imperial59]

You're right. I'm sure NYS had nothing to do with Damon's success last season where his OPS was .915 at home and .795 on the road. Where he hit 17 of his 24 HRs.

 

Ballpark... independent... stats. They adjust for that.

 

The object of hitting is to not make outs. Matsui clearly has more power than Johnson' date=' but Johnson is better at not making outs. If Johnson bats 2nd, he will score a lot of runs. If it's a loss, the loss is marginal. The Yankees still have a lot of thunder.[/quote']

 

The object of hitting is to score runs, not get on base. That's like saying the object of pitching is to strike batters out. It's simply not true.

[Keeper]

^arguing for the sake of arguing

 

There is a direct correlation between getting on base and scoring runs.

[Dipre]

Ballpark... independent... stats. They adjust for that.

 

I agree with this.

 

The object of hitting is to score runs, not get on base. That's like saying the object of pitching is to strike batters out. It's simply not true.

 

But not with this.

 

To score runs, you need to get on base. The only way to score runs without getting on base first is via the homerun, which is not a viable strategy, therefore, a hitter's main objective is to get on base, since every time you don't make an out, you increase the chances of scoring a run.

[Imperial59]

^arguing for the sake of arguing

 

There is a direct correlation between getting on base and scoring runs.

 

There's an even more direct correlation between OPS and scoring runs.

[The_Destroyah]

There's an even more direct correlation between OPS and scoring runs.

 

You mean OBP%+SLG% right? that is the OPS you are referring to? the one that is comprises half of its value from OBP%? no one said that OPS was a bad stat, its a great stat, the point was that not making outs is your first goal as a hitter, if nothing else it gives you one more chance to push one across, not to mention the first step (outside of HRs) to scoring runs is getting on base. not to mention, if there is one problem I have with OPS it's that it doesn't value OBP enough, being that a players OBP is usually a smaller number than their SLG%.

[jacksonianmarch]

Scoring runs is actually correlated MORE with OBP than with SLG, yet SLG makes up the majority of OPS.

[Imperial59]

Scoring runs is actually correlated MORE with OBP than with SLG' date=' yet SLG makes up the majority of OPS.[/quote']

 

That's fine, but what I said about OPS correlating more with scoring runs than OBP is still true. There's more to hitting than OBP and I guarantee when you try to compared Pedroia and Cano, you don't claim that OBP is the only valid offensive stat. You only use that argument when it fits your agenda.

[jacksonianmarch]

I never claimed that OBP wasnt a valid stat. Its all about where you are in the lineup. In the #2 hole, where Johnson would be hitting if Damon doesnt come back, OBP is more important than slugging. Lower in the order, driving in runs is more important, so I'd say that SLG approaches OBP in importance.

[Imperial59]

Even if Johnson does match Damon's production from last year because of a better OBP, a case could be made, that the offensive production the Yankees are getting from plenty of other starters is likely to regress.

 

Granderson's OPS+ was a dramatic 31 points lower than Matsui's last year. His career average is about 20 points lower than Matsui's. This is very similar to the offensive dropoff from Bay to Cameron which Jacko has described as "massive".

 

Nick Swisher had easily the best offensive year of his career. There's a good chance he regresses to the norm next year.

 

Brett Gardner isn't the same hitter as Melky Cabrera. It's hard to know what kind of an offense Gardner will provide over a full season, but his career .256/.325/.352 numbers are not pretty.

 

Derek Jeter had his best OPS+ since he was 25 years old. The chances of him duplicating that at age 36 are rather slim.

 

Jorge Posada is a 38 year old catcher coming off shoulder surgery last year. Last he he hit well above his career averages, that's not likely to continue.

[Keeper]

Granderson's OPS+ was a dramatic 31 points lower than Matsui's last year. His career average is about 20 points lower than Matsui's. This is very similar to the offensive dropoff from Bay to Cameron which Jacko has described as "massive".

 

Nick Swisher had easily the best offensive year of his career. There's a good chance he regresses to the norm next year.

 

Brett Gardner isn't the same hitter as Melky Cabrera. It's hard to know what kind of an offense Gardner will provide over a full season, but his career .256/.325/.352 numbers are not pretty.

 

Derek Jeter had his best OPS+ since he was 25 years old. The chances of him duplicating that at age 36 are rather slim.

 

Granderson's career BA is irrelevant. His BA is all over the place. You're acting like last season is the only season he's ever played. Just because he had a bit of a down year doesn't mean he'll have another one. Especially when he is now in a much more hitter-friendly park.

 

Swisher's OPS+ in 2009 was 129. His OPS+ in 2006 was 125. His OPS+ in 2007 was 126. There is also a good chance he won't regress.

 

Melky Cabrera isn't that good. Not really a big loss.

 

Jeter had his best OPS+ since he was 32, not 25. Stop making s*** up to fit your argument.

[ORS]

Scoring runs is actually correlated MORE with OBP than with SLG' date=' yet SLG makes up the majority of OPS.[/quote']

Nope. SLG correlates higher, but due to the scaling issue, a point of OBP is worth about 1.7 points of SLG.

[Dipre]

Granderson's career BA is irrelevant. His BA is all over the place. You're acting like last season is the only season he's ever played. Just because he had a bit of a down year doesn't mean he'll have another one. Especially when he is now in a much more hitter-friendly park.

 

Swisher's OPS+ in 2009 was 129. His OPS+ in 2006 was 125. His OPS+ in 2007 was 126. There is also a good chance he won't regress. Stop making s*** up to fit your argument.

 

Melky Cabrera isn't that good. Not really a big loss.

 

With Swisher, what will likely happen is an "evening out" of his home/road splits.

[Keeper]

With Swisher' date=' what will likely happen is an "evening out" of his home/road splits.[/quote']

 

Or he could inverse the home/road splits and would still be just as productive.

[Imperial59]

Granderson's career BA is irrelevant. His BA is all over the place. You're acting like last season is the only season he's ever played. Just because he had a bit of a down year doesn't mean he'll have another one. Especially when he is now in a much more hitter-friendly park.

 

Um... I never mentioned his batting average. Did you read my post?