Offensive Regression to be Expected?

[Imperial59]

The Yankees have essentially replaced Johnny Damon's offensive production out of an outfield spot with Granderson's. That's a drop from Damon's .854 OPS and 126 OPS+ last year to Granderson's .780 OPS and 100 OPS+ last year or his career .828 OPS and 113 OPS+.

 

They essentially replaced Hideki Matsui's offensive production at DH with Nick Johnson's. That's a drop from Matsui's .876 OPS and 131 OPS+ last year to Johnson's .831 OPS and 122 OPS+ last year. And that's ignoring the fact that Johnson averages 100 games a year as a starter.

 

Then there's the fact that Nick Swisher's coming off a career year last year, which you can usually expect regression from. Jeter's coming off a tie for the best OPS+ of his career at age 35 and is also likely for regression. And Posada will be turning 38 years old.

 

Are the Yankees likely for a regression in their offense? And if you don't think so, then how can you justify your position?

[yankees228]

Fair point, and one I've been contemplating since the season ended. Lets compare the lineups.

 

2009 Yankees:

 

Jeter

Damon

Teixeira

Rodriguez

Matsui

Posada

Cano

Swisher

Cabrera

 

2010 Yankees:

 

Jeter - Expected regression

 

Johnson - While he's not the same caliber offensive player as Damon is, if he can stay healthy, his OBP will be a huge asset in the two hole, and his power numbers should improve at NYS. It might be a slight

downgrade, but I don't think it's too big a deal.

 

Teixeira - I expect much of the same.

 

Rodriguez - A full season out of A-Rod (if they get that) would be an improvement over his output in 2009.

 

Granderson - To me, he's a big mystery. It's unrealistic to think that he'll produce at level that Matsui did in 2009, but I think it's possible that he has a very good season. I also think it's possible that he repeats his 2009 production. I honestly don't know, because his numbers the last three years suggest a lot of different things.

 

Posada - While he might show signs of aging, if the Yankees give him adequate time at DH, I could see him putting up similar numbers.

 

Cano - Huge mystery. If he really started to figure things out last year, and his ridiculous splits with RISP even out, he could be in for an improvement and a huge year. However, when it comes to Cano, you never really know what to expect.

 

Swisher - Expected regression, with the caveat that his home numbers should spike this year.

 

Cabrera - I expect much of the same.

 

I think they probably won't be as good as 2009, but I think it's still an offensive that can do a lot of damage, and there is probably more flexibility than last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Candidates for Regression IMO:

Jeter, Posada, Swisher

 

Candidates for improvement:

Granderson (park and lineup effect), Johnson (park effect), ARod (health and a full ST)

 

Who the F knows:

Cano, Cabrera

 

Right on point:

Teixeira

 

The question is, will the improvement guys outweight the regression guys by enough of a factor to make up for the dropoff in production from 2009 Matsui and Damon to the current team. I don't know. I think our 2009 offense wasnt at full tilt until July when ARod finally was healthy enough and after he'd shaken off the rust. This lineup will go as far as they do.

[Emmz]

Of course Granderson and Johnson will improve with park effect, but OPS+ accounts for that. So, in essence, they're still downgrading from Matsui and Damon.

[diony]

Even if the offense drops, the improved defense will make up for that. In the end, it's all about the run differential.

[jacksonianmarch]

The question is, can Granderson regain his solid OPS of 2007-2008 in Yankee Stadium while also experiencing the park effect. Remember, in 2007, Granderson had a .913OPS and in 2008 he had a .858OPS in Tiger's Stadium. If he regains that form while also seeing an effect from the Stadium, he could surpass Matsui's 2009 production.

 

Johnson also underperformed compared to his history. He had an 18 point drop in OPS, although he had a massive improvement (.890 with FLA) when he was inserted into a team with an outside chance of reaching the playoffs. Lets say Johnson performs up to his .850 career average and then experiences the park effect. He would mirror or surpass Damon's 2009 production

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, does OPS+ take into account the park effect for a lefty? Cause Yankee Stadium is brutal for a RHH, but is essentially a little league field for a lefty

[Emmz]

The question is, can Granderson regain his solid OPS of 2007-2008 in Yankee Stadium while also experiencing the park effect. Remember, in 2007, Granderson had a .913OPS and in 2008 he had a .858OPS in Tiger's Stadium. If he regains that form while also seeing an effect from the Stadium, he could surpass Matsui's 2009 production.

 

Johnson also underperformed compared to his history. He had an 18 point drop in OPS, although he had a massive improvement (.890 with FLA) when he was inserted into a team with an outside chance of reaching the playoffs. Lets say Johnson performs up to his .850 career average and then experiences the park effect. He would mirror or surpass Damon's 2009 production

 

This is all basically about hopefulness though. I try to stick to his averages, depending on if they're consistent or not. Granderson's simply not going to be a better offensive player than Damon. Check his platoon stats, absolutely dreadful.

 

Johnson's good, I defended him, but Matsui's last season is better than what Johnson's going to put up. You also have to consider the difference in competition from the NL East to the AL East. It's basically going from the weakest division in baseball to the best. His numbers could very well drop, and I think his health status is a legitimate concern.

[Emmz]

Also' date=' does OPS+ take into account the park effect for a lefty? Cause Yankee Stadium is brutal for a RHH, but is essentially a little league field for a lefty[/quote']

 

That's a good question. I'm really not sure, so I wouldn't be able to elaborate any further on it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, I compare Johnson to Damon and Granderson to Matsui since Johnson is tailor made for the 2 hole. I think Granderson gets placed in an RBI spot in the lineup.

[Emmz]

Damon and Johnson are comparable, but Damon gets the slight edge due to his edge in OPS, and OPS+ IMO, as well as he's never played under 140 games in his 14 full seasons, whereas Johnson has played in 140+ games once in 7 seasons as a regular.

 

Matsui, well, he's vastly superior to Curtis Granderson. His career OPS and OPS+ are .852 and 124, compared to Granderson's .828 and 113, respectively.

[Dojji]

They're still gathering the data on what NYS is, so I wouldn't presume they have the new park factors down to a science yet anyway.

 

I'm still not exactly sure how much of that LHH stuff is real and how much of it is a chicken and egg question. Surely some of it is real, but the Yankees do have a lot of good lefthanded hitters.

[ORS]

I'm still not exactly sure how much of that LHH stuff is real and how much of it is a chicken and egg question. Surely some of it is real' date=' but the Yankees do have a lot of good lefthanded hitters.[/quote']

Do they cease to be good LHH on the road? Furthermore, do the opponents LHH become better at YS?

 

The Yankees hit 136/108 and gave up 101/80 at Home/Road parks. These games featured the same players for the most part, but the Yankees and their opponents hit about 25% more HR at the new Yankee Stadium.

 

EDIT: And, no, it isn't down to a science. Generally, they like to have at least 3 years of data to construct a weighted (8-5-1) park factor, but the early data indicates a fairly severe park factor.

[Dojji]

there's a question I've always wondered about -- if park dimensions create a ludicrous park factor, and NYS might be a candidate, does the league have any power to force a team to mitigate them?

[ORS]

Not that I know of. I think there are dimension minimums for new parks, but older parks are grandfathered in, and a new park designed as a replica to replace a grandfathered in park is probably allowed to keep its dimensions. This doesn't mean the league couldn't attempt to pressure them in other ways or offer incentives to make modifications, but I don't think they have official authority to enforce any changes.

[Dipre]

They're still gathering the data on what NYS is, so I wouldn't presume they have the new park factors down to a science yet anyway.

 

I'm still not exactly sure how much of that LHH stuff is real and how much of it is a chicken and egg question. Surely some of it is real, but the Yankees do have a lot of good lefthanded hitters.

 

Yankee lefties SLG splits:

 

Cano: .541 home/498 away.

 

Matsui: .462 home/.567 away

 

Gardner: .340 home/ .480 away

 

Damon: .533 home/ .446 away

 

Posada: .613 home/ .432 away, .623 SLG at home hitting as a lefty

 

Swisher: .394 home/.585 away.

 

Melky: .424 home/ .409 away, .425 SLG at home as a lefty.

 

Most of the guys (except Swisher, whose splits are clearly a fluke) who are known to generate most of their power by pulling the ball to RF have a massive SLG advantage at home.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not that I know of. I think there are dimension minimums for new parks' date=' but older parks are grandfathered in, and a new park designed as a replica to replace a grandfathered in park is probably allowed to keep its dimensions. This doesn't mean the league couldn't attempt to pressure them in other ways or offer incentives to make modifications, but I don't think they have official authority to enforce any changes.[/quote']

 

They definitely exceed the league minimums. They allowed the humidor in Colorado because of the atmospheric difference. It doesnt make sense to do that in NYC when they are pretty close to sea level. But the splits are extreme. I dont think they'll do anything except continue to watch the balls fly. I honestly think that LF, CF and down the RF line plays true to the original Yankee Stadium. RCF is where I have the most problems. Too many low liners are finding their way into the first two rows in RCF, which never used to happen in the Bronx. Johnny Damon made it a habit of hitting a liner into the gap that just fell over the wall, but off the bat it looked like it should 2 hop the fence.

[Gom]

Yankee lefties SLG splits:

 

Cano: .541 home/498 away.

 

Matsui: .462 home/.567 away

 

Gardner: .340 home/ .480 away

 

Damon: .533 home/ .446 away

 

Posada: .613 home/ .432 away, .623 SLG at home hitting as a lefty

 

Swisher: .394 home/.585 away.

 

Melky: .424 home/ .409 away, .425 SLG at home as a lefty.

 

Most of the guys (except Swisher, whose splits are clearly a fluke) who are known to generate most of their power by pulling the ball to RF have a massive SLG advantage at home.

Amazing that you do research and don't understand the very numbers you quote. Truly amazing. First of all, Posada, Damon and Cano were markedly better at home and as lefties.

 

Swisher, Matsui, and Gardner [who is really unimportant] were incredibly better away. Melky is within the realm of statistical variation.

 

The point is, the Yankees hit better at home than away. However, as usual, you've done a piss-poor job of making your point.

 

That being said, the Yankees will see most definitely see an offensive regression next year. The question is how much.

[Dipre]

Amazing that you do research and don't understand the very numbers you quote. Truly amazing. First of all, Posada, Damon and Cano were markedly better at home and as lefties.

 

Swisher, Matsui, and Gardner [who is really unimportant] were incredibly better away. Melky is within the realm of statistical variation.

 

The point is, the Yankees hit better at home than away. However, as usual, you've done a piss-poor job of making your point.

 

That being said, the Yankees will see most definitely see an offensive regression next year. The question is how much.

 

No.

 

The fact that your thought process is not advanced enough to comprehend what you're reading is your problem, not mine. I specifically said that the players bolded above, hitting as lefties in NYS were notable for their pulling habits, and had massive home/away SLG% differentials, adding to the notion that NYS gives lefty pull hitters a notable advantage.

 

Take the time to read and interpret, lest you look like an ass as you usually do.

[Gom]

No.

 

The fact that your thought process is not advanced enough to comprehend what you're reading is your problem, not mine. I specifically said that the players bolded above, hitting as lefties in NYS were notable for their pulling habits, and had massive home/away SLG% differentials, adding to the notion that NYS gives lefty pull hitters a notable advantage.

 

Take the time to read and interpret, lest you look like an ass as you usually do.

 

Except that out of the seven players you list, three were incredibly better on the road. I don't deny the Yankees perform better at home than on the road, but as usual, you can't make a point. Just showing that you're retarded, that's all. Matsui not known for his pulling habits? Are you serious?

 

I don't deny your point. Just your research. It's no wonder why you can't win a debate.

 

Go away. You were smarter when you weren't posting here. Think on that for a while, douche.

[Emmz]

Except that out of the seven players you list, three were incredibly better on the road. I don't deny the Yankees perform better at home than on the road, but as usual, you can't make a point. Just showing that you're retarded, that's all. Matsui not known for his pulling habits? Are you serious?

 

I don't deny your point. Just your research. It's no wonder why you can't win a debate.

 

Go away. You were smarter when you weren't posting here. Think on that for a while, douche.

 

All you've done is taken everything to an unnecessary level. You throw around insults after making a topic about how we should all "tone it down". Seriously, argue the points, not the poster.

[Gom]

My favorite is the fact that Cano is a pull hitter. Guess which percentage of fly balls he hit was lowest to the outfield?

 

You got it. Right field. Yet he's a pull hitter.

[yankees228]

Gom, regardless of any little problem you have with Dipre's analysis, are you really going to deny that NYS plays pretty small to RF and RCF?

[Dipre]

My favorite is the fact that Cano is a pull hitter. Guess which percentage of fly balls he hit was lowest to the outfield?

 

You got it. Right field. Yet he's a pull hitter.

 

Robinson Cano hit chart.

 

Only 2 of his 14 homers were not hit to RF.

[Dipre]

You need to post home/away SLG% for LHH to prove it?. Congrats.

 

Old Yankee Stadium had the same effect. It's because of a shorter right-field fence that favors left-handed batters, you know?

 

Fantastic contribution.

[Emmz]

You need to post home/away SLG% for LHH to prove it?. Congrats.

 

Old Yankee Stadium had the same effect. It's because of a shorter right-field fence that favors left-handed batters, you know?

 

Consider who he's arguing with.

[yankees228]

Gom, come on, you said yourself that you were going to tone it down a bit. Throwing around words like "retarded" and "douche" aren't toning it down, and can only lead to negative things. They're unnecessary.

[Gom]

Robinson Cano hit chart.

 

Only 2 of his 14 homers were not hit to RF.

 

Look at the chart again...tell me what you really see?

 

Secondly, I don't use Fox Sports hit chart. I use ESPN Insider. According to them, here is the distrubution of balls to left, center, right. 21, 17, 18.

 

Know what that means? He's a spray hitter. Know what I know from watching the gamezzz? He's a spray hitter. Know what you can see from your Fox Sports chart? He's a spray hitter. In fact, most of the doubles and flyballs he hit to left center would have been homers if the park was reversed.

 

Now go look at Matsui:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=ana&playerID=425686&statType=1

 

Look at how his hits were dispersed? What do you see? Pull hitter...yet he hit markedly better on the road.

 

You really can't make a logical point, yet you constantly pat yourself on the back thinking that you do. You're completely lost. Quick...hurry...get Emmz to defend you.

 

Was that better 228? I didn't call him a douche. Yet read his posts. He either says it or implies it all the time, and when he's wrong, and he gets his Internet girlfriend to back him up with some classic tidbits like "pwned" or "ROFL" or whatever. He's just confused.

[Emmz]

Gom, all you're doing is proving yourself to be a hypocrite. Seriously, you bring little to the table with these antics. It's called being mature. You're a middle-aged man, it's time to start acting like one.

[Dipre]

Look at the chart again...tell me what you really see?

 

Secondly, I don't use Fox Sports hit chart. I use ESPN Insider. According to them, here is the distrubution of balls to left, center, right. 21, 17, 18.

 

Know what that means? He's a spray hitter. Know what I know from watching the gamezzz? He's a spray hitter. Know what you can see from your Fox Sports chart? He's a spray hitter. In fact, most of the doubles and flyballs he hit to left center would have been homers if the park was reversed.

 

Now go look at Matsui:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=ana&playerID=425686&statType=1

 

Look at how his hits were dispersed? What do you see? Pull hitter...yet he hit markedly better on the road.

 

You really can't make a logical point, yet you constantly pat yourself on the back thinking that you do. You're completely lost. Quick...hurry...get Emmz to defend you.

 

XBH greatly influence SLG%, if a higher percentage of them are hit to your pull side, then, as i said, you pull with power to RF.

 

Cano Home/Road splits: .911/.831.

 

I don't need to make another post in this thread. You did all the work for me.