Offensive Regression to be Expected?

[Imperial59]

Or he could inverse the home/road splits and would still be just as productive.

 

He could, but it's unlikely that both his home and away stats flip over 100 points of OPS. His home splits last year were certainly a lot closer to his career averages.

[Keeper]

Um... I never mentioned his batting average. Did you read my post?

 

You said his career average was lower than Matsui's. I see now that you were referring to his OPS. Wasn't clear.

[Imperial59]

You said his career average was lower than Matsui's. I see now that you were referring to his OPS. Wasn't clear.

 

Perhaps you missed the context.

 

Granderson's OPS+ was a dramatic 31 points lower than Matsui's last year. His career average is about 20 points lower than Matsui's. This is very similar to the offensive dropoff from Bay to Cameron which Jacko has described as "massive".

[Keeper]

It doesn't change the fact that your argument doesn't hold much water.

[Emmz]

OPS+ Accounts for park advantages, etc.

 

Matsui to Granderson is a downgrade, any way you spin it.

[BoSox21]

This may have been stated already but debating about offensive regression is completely useless. Run differential is what's really important here.

[Dipre]

This may have been stated already but debating about offensive regression is completely useless. Run differential is what's really important here.

 

Specially if you have a consistent home-road offense, which the Yankees have.

[Keeper]

OPS+ Accounts for park advantages, etc.

 

Matsui to Granderson is a downgrade, any way you spin it.

 

Some spin job on my part when I say that Granderson had a much higher OPS+ than Matsui in 2007 and 2008.

 

135 to 123

123 to 108

 

Matsui also missed a lot of games in 2006 and 2008. Granderson is a lot younger, has been durable, and isn't limited to being a DH like Matsui. It could be a downgrade. It could be a wash. Or it could be an upgrade. The point is it's not really definitive.

[Imperial59]

It doesn't change the fact that your argument doesn't hold much water.

 

Why's that? Granderson's park adjusted stats are significantly worse than Matsui's both last year and over his career.

[Imperial59]

Some spin job on my part when I say that Granderson had a much higher OPS+ than Matsui in 2007 and 2008.

 

135 to 123

123 to 108

 

Matsui also missed a lot of games in 2006 and 2008. Granderson is a lot younger, has been durable, and isn't limited to being a DH like Matsui. It could be a downgrade. It could be a wash. Or it could be an upgrade. The point is it's not really definitive.

 

Who cares what Matsui's stats were in 2007 and 2008? We're comparing the team's offense last year with Matsui's 131 OPS+ to what they'll get next year. Hence the title, "offensive regression to be expected?"

[Keeper]

Who cares what Matsui's stats were in 2007 and 2008? We're comparing the team's offense last year with Matsui's 131 OPS+ to what they'll get next year. Hence the title' date=' "offensive regression to be expected?"[/quote']

 

No, you're comparing stats from last season. I'm looking at the big picture. One of us has the better approach. If you don't think Granderson is capable of duplicating what he did in 2007 and 2008 based on what he did last year, I don't know what to tell you. :dunno: