Unofficial Adrian Gonzalez thread.

[Dipre]

Dipre, as much as you would like to pretend that he wasnt, Ortiz was a bad DH last yr. Yes, he finished the yr strong, but great hitters who succumb to time do not typically fall off a cliff. They slump more than usual, their bat gets a little longer, they dont cover the plate as well as they used to. Even when Papi was hitting last season, he could not hit a hard fastball. That was never a problem for him. When he was murdering us in 2004 and 2005, you couldnt get a fastball by him. Now, you just throw a fastball. No breaking pitches anymore since he's got a slider speed bat. Its obvious.

 

Now, there are plenty of guys who are older on the yankees. Some of them ancient. But none have shown that dip in production. Posada had his 4th best season of his career, Jeter had his second or third best, ARod, had another .900+OPS season even with his hip being a problem early on, and Rivera was still pumping it into the mid 90s for most of the season. Father time will hit them eventually. They cannot all play until they are 45 at a high level. But, all of them are in peak shape and currently all of them are coming off good seasons and are fully healthy. Ortiz isnt. He's coming off wrist and knee injuries and last yr he looked like a sloth in the batters box. To deflect that is ignorant.

 

Also, Dipre, I see that your "flair" is coming back. Thats both good and bad. Your vacation from here was actually a peaceful time on the board, but when you arent hurling insults, you contribute a lot. Welcome back, hopefully it doesnt degenerate again

 

Calling out bias is not the same as hurling out insults.

 

Also, he had four months with an OPS over .820, including two with an OPS over .900. He'll start the season fully healthy, and he finished strong.

 

What matters is production, and after his abysmal two months, he produced, you cannot try to tell us "he's done" when he produced at near elite levels for more than half the season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Did I say he was done? I said he shouldnt be counted on as a middle of the order bat

[Imperial59]

They can't start the season with Kotchman at 1B. He stinks-- strictly a bottom third of the order hitter.When Varitek plays' date=' our bottom 4 would really a suck if VMart needs a rest.[/quote']

 

Yeah, the chances of the Sox ACTUALLY starting the season with Kotchman at first are pretty remote.

[Dipre]

The sox biggest problem down the stretch was a hot and cold, lackluster offense. They'd go on 5 game tears where they'd score 45 runs, then go 4 games scoring 6 runs.

 

That lineup is solid 1-4, although Martinez isnt a great #3 hitter. He'd probably be better in the 5 or 6 hole. Youkilis is fine in the cleanup role. But Ortiz in the middle of the order is a problem since he was pretty bad last yr and will be a yr older, and Drew needs to have a run producer behind him since he walks so much.

 

That would essentially mean he sucked last year, and will continue sucking.

[Imperial59]

The sox biggest problem down the stretch was a hot and cold, lackluster offense. They'd go on 5 game tears where they'd score 45 runs, then go 4 games scoring 6 runs.

 

That lineup is solid 1-4, although Martinez isnt a great #3 hitter. He'd probably be better in the 5 or 6 hole. Youkilis is fine in the cleanup role. But Ortiz in the middle of the order is a problem since he was pretty bad last yr and will be a yr older, and Drew needs to have a run producer behind him since he walks so much.

 

The Sox were in the top 5 in runs scored in both August and September (as well as the course of the entire season). Hard to claim the offense was the problem. I think their problems last year had more to do with Brad Penny starting the third most games on the staff, Matsuzaka being completely ineffective and the defense being atrocious.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I don't see why everyone is so against giving Kotchman a shot. He plays GG defense and is just two years removed from a ..296/.372/.467/.840 (at 24 years old). Plus he has some serious pedigree as a prospect also (former #6 BA top 100 prospect) so he definitely has talent. The Angels just suck at integrating their young talent.

[Teddyballgame10]

I think Jacko is right. Ortiz is going to continue to decline and no manager in baseball will fear our bottom three. I dont think we will be "so far out of it" by the trading deadline if we dont get a bat but we'll be in trouble. We are going to miss Bay big time. I'm sorry but Kotchman and Cameron are not going to balance it out. We need a big time bat.

[Dipre]

I think Jacko is right. Ortiz is going to continue to decline and no manager in baseball will fear our bottom three. I dont think we will be "so far out of it" by the trading deadline if we dont get a bat but we'll be in trouble. We are going to miss Bay big time. I'm sorry but Kotchman and Cameron are not going to balance it out. We need a big time bat.

 

Well i strongly disagree about Ortiz. Four months of near-elite production should outweigh his struggles in the first two months. Don't get me wrong, he won't be an elite bat ever again, but i highly doubt he produces an OPS under .830.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I think Jacko is right. Ortiz is going to continue to decline and no manager in baseball will fear our bottom three. I dont think we will be "so far out of it" by the trading deadline if we dont get a bat but we'll be in trouble. We are going to miss Bay big time. I'm sorry but Kotchman and Cameron are not going to balance it out. We need a big time bat.

 

Other than maybe the Yankees, no manager fears ANY bottom of the lineup. Yet there are some tough outs in the Kotchman/Scutaro/Cameron group.

[Dipre]

Other than maybe the Yankees' date=' no manager fears ANY bottom of the lineup. Yet there are some tough outs in the Kotchman/Scutaro/Cameron group.[/quote']

 

Cameron and Scutaro are both adept at working the count. Cameron strikes out a s***-ton though.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Cameron and Scutaro are both adept at working the count. Cameron strikes out a s***-ton though.

 

This is true though Theo mentioned in the press conference that Cameron makes up for it with the walks.

 

Scutaro is top 30 (in all of baseball) in Pitches/PA, Cameron top 50, and Kotchman would be top 100 most likely as well so they can definitely be tough outs.

[Dipre]

This is true though Theo mentioned in the press conference that Cameron makes up for it with the walks.

 

Scutaro is top 30 (in all of baseball) in Pitches/PA, Cameron top 50, and Kotchman would be top 100 most likely as well so they can definitely be tough outs.

 

My problem of Kotchman is his utter lack of pop, but a tough out he is.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well i strongly disagree about Ortiz. Four months of near-elite production should outweigh his struggles in the first two months. Don't get me wrong' date=' he won't be an elite bat ever again, but i highly doubt he produces an OPS under .830.[/quote']

 

Lets say he produces an .830OPS. Is that good from a player who will be in the #5 hole in an order? Plus, like I have said before, there is a way to get him out now. Good fastballs anywhere in the zone.

 

One stat that Ortiz used to dominate was close and late. His 2009 numbers in those situations show an OPS of .713. Also, Ortiz was ABYSMAL when he got behind in the count. .140/.149/.220. Now, most hitters dont do well in that situation, but this includes 0-1 counts as well. And that's atrocious. And, probably the most telling stat of all is his overall performance in late innings and in those situations, he was miserable, OPS less than .700. Regardless, he can be pitched to, he'll be a yr older and he cannot hit a good fastball. You really think he's gonna be a major asset here?

[Rdsxmbnt]

Lets say he produces an .830OPS. Is that good from a player who will be in the #5 hole in an order? Plus, like I have said before, there is a way to get him out now. Good fastballs anywhere in the zone.

 

One stat that Ortiz used to dominate was close and late. His 2009 numbers in those situations show an OPS of .713. Also, Ortiz was ABYSMAL when he got behind in the count. .140/.149/.220. Now, most hitters dont do well in that situation, but this includes 0-1 counts as well. And that's atrocious. And, probably the most telling stat of all is his overall performance in late innings and in those situations, he was miserable, OPS less than .700. Regardless, he can be pitched to, he'll be a yr older and he cannot hit a good fastball. You really think he's gonna be a major asset here?

 

His last 100+ games he had a .900 OPS. Is he the old David Ortiz? No, but I don't see any reason to believe he won't put up a high .800's OPS given the way he 'ended' (basically includes all but the first two months) the season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Picking that sample size is like scooping out the slumps from a ballplayer and presenting them as great. Baseball is about peaks and valleys.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Picking that sample size is like scooping out the slumps from a ballplayer and presenting them as great. Baseball is about peaks and valleys.

 

Absolutely false, if he started really strong and then tapered off then I'd say you'd have an argument that he's going down. But he started slow and finished fast (each month split is at least .820+ with the other three above .900) so no I don't think a 100 game (consecutive) sample is at all cherry picking.

[Dipre]

Lets say he produces an .830OPS. Is that good from a player who will be in the #5 hole in an order? Plus' date=' like I have said before, there is a way to get him out now. [b']Good fastballs anywhere in the zone. [/b]

 

One stat that Ortiz used to dominate was close and late. His 2009 numbers in those situations show an OPS of .713. Also, Ortiz was ABYSMAL when he got behind in the count. .140/.149/.220. Now, most hitters dont do well in that situation, but this includes 0-1 counts as well. And that's atrocious. And, probably the most telling stat of all is his overall performance in late innings and in those situations, he was miserable, OPS less than .700. Regardless, he can be pitched to, he'll be a yr older and he cannot hit a good fastball. You really think he's gonna be a major asset here?

 

Incorrect.

 

David Ortiz OPS vs fastball by plate area:

 

Inside:

 

Up: 1.167

 

Middle: 1.179

 

Down: .611

 

Middle:

 

Up: 1.053

 

Middle: .815

 

Down: .682

 

Outside:

 

Up: .235

 

Middle: .750

 

Down: 2.000.

 

As a whole, he had a .792 OPS against fastballs, when you take into context the fact that he could simply not hit anything for the first two months of the season, one can conclude that your premise is not correct.

 

Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_09_29_tormlb_bosmlb_1&mode=wrap

 

(You need to have Gameday Premium)

[Imperial59]

Baseball is about peaks and valleys.

 

Which is why Ortiz could easily have a resurgence in a contract year at age 34 after a couple down years. Heck, Hideki Matsui did it last year at age 35. Like you said, decline isn't a steady downward slope. It goes up and down, some players even have their best years late in their careers before they decline for good.

[Dipre]

Which is why Ortiz could easily have a resurgence in a contract year at age 34 after a couple down years. Heck' date=' Hideki Matsui did it last year at age 35. Like you said, decline isn't a steady downward slope. It goes up and down, some players even have their best years late in their careers before they decline for good.[/quote']

 

Wow, fantastic example with Matsui, who had not been very productive due to injury issues.

 

Kudos.

[Spudboy]

The Sox were in the top 5 in runs scored in both August and September (as well as the course of the entire season). Hard to claim the offense was the problem. I think their problems last year had more to do with Brad Penny starting the third most games on the staff' date=' Matsuzaka being completely ineffective and the defense being atrocious.[/quote']

 

Lol.

 

Great post noob.

[Spudboy]

I don't see why everyone is so against giving Kotchman a shot. He plays GG defense and is just two years removed from a ..296/.372/.467/.840 (at 24 years old). Plus he has some serious pedigree as a prospect also (former #6 BA top 100 prospect) so he definitely has talent. The Angels just suck at integrating their young talent.

 

Another good post.

 

Lol.

 

TS members blow loads while posting stats of Sox prospects. I find it interesting that Kotchman's numbers and "pedigree" are dismissed so easily.

[Spudboy]

My problem of Kotchman is his utter lack of pop' date=' but a tough out he is.[/quote']

 

So maybe he is not the prototypical 1st baseman offensively. If he can keep the line moving, so be it.

 

Still, I'd really love to see Adrien.

[Dipre]

Another good post.

 

Lol.

 

TS members blow loads while posting stats of Sox prospects. I find it interesting that Kotchman's numbers and "pedigree" are dismissed so easily.

 

2008 and 2009 OPS for Kasey Kotchman:

 

08: .738

 

09: .721.

 

This is from a man who plays 1B exclusively.

 

The hype over prospects really has nothing to do with the fact that Kotchman simply hasn't been very good at the plate the last years at the most offensive-minded position in baseball, and also, the prospects people are excited about won't open the season manning 1B for the Sox after the departure of Jason Bay, making the shoes even bigger to fill.

[SoxSport]

Which is better...one year of Lowell at 12 million' date=' or three years of Beltre at 39 million [assuming a 30 year deal, and 9 million to trade Lowell']?

 

3/39 for Beltre ain't gonna happen. Beltre will get 3- 4 years at 8-10 mil per. More than that and it won't be in Boston. Beltre isn't enough of a hitter to be a big ticket.

[Dipre]

So maybe he is not the prototypical 1st baseman offensively. If he can keep the line moving, so be it.

 

Still, I'd really love to see Adrien.

 

Casey Kotchman OBP 2008 and 2009:

 

2008: .328

 

2009: .339

 

 

He hasn't kept many lines moving lately.........

[SoxSport]

There's a chance Ortiz' problems relate to conditioning as well as injuries the past couple of years.

Look at what happened to Dice-K, and he's a lot younger. The older you get, the harder you have to work to get into shape. Ortiz might surprise this year if he's worked hard enough in the winter.

[Dipre]

Also' date=' Dipre, I see that your "flair" is coming back. Thats both good and bad. [b']Your vacation from here was actually a peaceful time on the board[/b], but when you arent hurling insults, you contribute a lot. Welcome back, hopefully it doesnt degenerate again

 

By the way, i just noticed the full extent of this. I strongly suggest against continuing such baiting attempts. I would appreciate it. And so would everyone else.

[jacksonianmarch]

its not baiting. Its true. It was very peaceful here. No fights occured.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

its not baiting. Its true. It was very peaceful here. No fights occured.

True or not, why the hell does it need to be said? Total baiting.

[Spudboy]

its not baiting. Its true. It was very peaceful here. No fights occured.

 

Oh really?

 

Have you been too busy in the ER to notice ORS/A700?

 

E1/A700?

 

Get real.