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Posted
I'm hoping he does live up to those numbers. When he went to the Mets' date=' I thought he would be a really good pickup, because I was aware of his numbers and reputation. Watching him day in and day out, he was a disappointment. Maybe I was expecting too much of him. I don't have a problem with the 4 OFers if they can land Gonzalez. If they land Gonzalez, what do they do with Lowell?[/quote']

 

The last few seasons his BA and SLG have been low, but his OBP has been solid. Here's his RISP line from the last couple seasons:

2009: .233, .368, .370, .737

2008: .245, .346, .443, .790

2007: .275, .384, .580, .964

2006: .317, .412, .554, .966

2005: .324, .388, .507, .895

 

One thing that sticks out to me is the downward trend. It could just be random and/or team factors, but it is a bit alarming. He's old so it is a risk, but I think we can expect a good OBP and .750-.800 OPS. Hopefully the lineup will make him better.

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Posted

By the way, if this is truly it offensively, the sox will have taken a step back, especially if they cannot improve on Lowell. Losing Bay takes away their biggest long ball and RBI threat, leaving only Youkilis as a true middle of the order run producer. Here is the lineup

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 1B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Lowell 3B

7. Drew RF

8. Cameron LF

9. Scutaro SS

 

Its a deep lineup without a big hole (unless Scutaro returns to his career baseline), but it lacks the thunder in the middle, especially if Papi continues his decline

Posted

From SoSH

 

Just for perversity, my current (plain vanilla Marcel) offensive projections. These, remember, know nothing about injuries, ballpark adaptations, career years, or second-half breakthroughs, but they do factor in age:

 

Martinez +2 over Posada

Teixeira +5 over Youkilis

Pedroia +9 over Cano

Jeter +13 over Scutaro

ARod +36 over Beltre

Cameron +1 over Cabrera

Granderson +5 over Ellsbury

Drew +3 over Swisher

Ortiz +1 over Damon

 

= Yankees +43

 

Defense, you say?

 

Youkilis +8

Pedroia +10

Scutaro +6

Beltre +23

Cameron +6 (both as CF)

Granderson +10

Drew +1

 

= Red Sox +44

Posted

Since when does anyone care about LF defense? Seriously.

The Sox won two world series with friggin Manny in left.

C'mon, get real.

Posted
By the way, if this is truly it offensively, the sox will have taken a step back, especially if they cannot improve on Lowell. Losing Bay takes away their biggest long ball and RBI threat, leaving only Youkilis as a true middle of the order run producer. Here is the lineup

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 1B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Lowell 3B

7. Drew RF

8. Cameron LF

9. Scutaro SS

 

Its a deep lineup without a big hole (unless Scutaro returns to his career baseline), but it lacks the thunder in the middle, especially if Papi continues his decline

 

 

There was a talent gap between the Yanks and Sox lineups in 09. This deal just widens it, IMO.

Posted
Since when does anyone care about LF defense? Seriously.

The Sox won two world series with friggin Manny in left.

C'mon, get real.

 

Who was also one of the best offensive powers in baseball. When you're that good at offense, it makes up for being a horrendous defender.

Posted
Do we need a glove like Cameron's in front of the Monster for 81 games. I would have preferred getting Vlad. He has enough left in his legs to play LF at Fenway.
Posted
By the way, if this is truly it offensively, the sox will have taken a step back, especially if they cannot improve on Lowell. Losing Bay takes away their biggest long ball and RBI threat, leaving only Youkilis as a true middle of the order run producer. Here is the lineup

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 1B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Lowell 3B

7. Drew RF

8. Cameron LF

9. Scutaro SS

 

Its a deep lineup without a big hole (unless Scutaro returns to his career baseline), but it lacks the thunder in the middle, especially if Papi continues his decline

 

The Sox will be upgrading in a sense for catcher position. A full season of having V-Mart is nothing to sniff at. And Id say he is a middle of the order run producer, not just Youkilis. He's reached 100 RBIs a season in 2004, 2007, and 2009. 81 games of Fenway Park will be another bonus

 

---------------

137 for 573 (.239 avg) 33 Doubles, Triple, 12 HRs, 61 RBIs, 73 Runs, 42 Walks, 131 Ks, 6 for 10 SBs, 24 errors

 

This is what Sox got from the shortstop position in 2009. While Im still not sure about Scutaro.. He is still an upgrade from what they had this past season

Posted
Do we need a glove like Cameron's in front of the Monster for 81 games. I would have preferred getting Vlad. He has enough left in his legs to play LF at Fenway.

Really? He started showing some serious signs of age last year, like hardly taking the field at all. Of his 100 games played, 93 were as a DH. I don't think he could be counted on to patrol LF for a season.

Posted
Who was also one of the best offensive powers in baseball. When you're that good at offense' date=' it makes up for being a horrendous defender.[/quote']

 

Bay was a better offensive power during his stint with the Red Sox in 2009 than Manny was in 2007. His offense more than made up for his alleged defensive deficiencies.

 

This whole LF defense argument is a farce, IMO.

Posted
Bay was a better offensive power during his stint with the Red Sox in 2009 than Manny was in 2007. His offense more than made up for his alleged defensive deficiencies.

 

This whole LF defense argument is a farce, IMO.

 

Actually, how about both CF and LF?

 

If the Sox truly care about the OF defense "problem", they'll play Cameron in CF and Ellsbury in LF and sport the best OF defense in the game.

Posted

The signing of Cameron solves one problem the Sox were roundly and loudly criticized for.

 

If you know what I'm talking about, do you think it was a factor?

Posted
Actually, how about both CF and LF?

 

If the Sox truly care about the OF defense "problem", they'll play Cameron in CF and Ellsbury in LF and sport the best OF defense in the game.

 

Dip, nice to see you back.

 

I doubt they move Ellsbury to LF.

Posted
Dip, nice to see you back.

 

I doubt they move Ellsbury to LF.

 

It's what they should do, if they don't, then their "attempt" at fixing the team's defense was not genuine.

Posted
It's what they should do' date=' if they don't, then their "attempt" at fixing the team's defense was not genuine.[/quote']

 

The World Champs had a worse UZR than the Sox in 09. Fixing the offense is more important than fixing the defense.

Posted
Really? He started showing some serious signs of age last year' date=' like hardly taking the field at all. Of his 100 games played, 93 were as a DH. I don't think he could be counted on to patrol LF for a season.[/quote']LF at Fenway is a lot easier on the legs than any other ballpark. There's no big power ally to chase balls down. Also, I think he played so few games in the OF last season, because they had two insane fielders in Tori hunter and Matthews. It was very hard getting a ball between those two. They also had Abreu who moves pretty well, although he will not go near a wall. Also, don't forget that they had Juan Rivera who needed playing time. I think Vlad playing so few games in the field was not just a function of age, but also a function of there being much better options. Can he play a full year in the OF? Probably not, but that's why we have Hermida.
Posted

I think it is going to be some sort of Hermida/Cameron platoon in LF. Or Cameron in CF when he plays, and Ellsbury moving over to LF. Then Elllsbury back in CF when Hermida is playing :dunno:

 

 

I wanted Holliday. But I can understand why the team may not go in that direction. I'm glad there not giving Bay 5 years. Cameron on a 1 or 2 year deal seems like a good alternative IMO.

Posted
The World Champs had a worse UZR than the Sox in 09. Fixing the offense is more important than fixing the defense.

 

I'm operating under the assumption the Sox trade for an elite 1B bat, (Gonzo, Cabrera), otherwise, check out the 2007 UZR for the CF and RF positions. Having a good defender in CF is very important.

Posted
I think what a lot of people are missing in this signing is the amount of years committed to Cameron (2) vs. what Bay wanted (5). Signing Cameron may hurt our offense this season and possibly next, IF we don't sign/trade anyone else to help in that regard, but at the same time only having him around for two seasons gives the Sox time to finish the development of Westmoreland and not block his path to the big leagues in the process.
Posted
I think what a lot of people are missing in this signing is the amount of years committed to Cameron (2) vs. what Bay wanted (5). Signing Cameron may hurt our offense this season and possibly next' date=' [b']IF[/b] we don't sign/trade anyone else to help in that regard, but at the same time only having him around for two seasons gives the Sox time to finish the development of Westmoreland and not block his path to the big leagues in the process.

 

By the end of 2011 season, the Sox will have 2 potential holes to fill in the outfield as both Drew and Cameron would enter free agency

Posted
By the end of 2011 season' date=' the Sox will have 2 potential holes to fill in the outfield as both Drew and Cameron would enter free agency[/quote']

 

That's fine... I'm sure that a good free agent will be around to sign at that point anyway. It's not like we're the Royals and we won't have the cash to buy a player if need be.

Posted
I think what a lot of people are missing in this signing is the amount of years committed to Cameron (2) vs. what Bay wanted (5). Signing Cameron may hurt our offense this season and possibly next' date=' [b']IF[/b] we don't sign/trade anyone else to help in that regard, but at the same time only having him around for two seasons gives the Sox time to finish the development of Westmoreland and not block his path to the big leagues in the process.

 

In 6 years, Bay will be Cameron's age.

A 5 year contract for Bay is not a risk.

Posted
In 6 years, Bay will be Cameron's age.

A 5 year contract for Bay is not a risk.

 

I believe his health to be a legitimate concern. Also, Cameron is still playing Cf at a high level, Bay can barely play defense now.

Posted
I believe his health to be a legitimate concern. Also' date=' Cameron is still playing Cf at a high level, Bay can barely play defense now.[/quote']

 

The Sox offered him a 4 year contract. His health has nothing to do with 5 years vs. 4.

 

As for his lack of defense, that's BS - as you know.

Posted
The Sox offered him a 4 year contract. His health has nothing to do with 5 years vs. 4.

 

As for his lack of defense, that's BS - as you know.

 

It's not BS. Bay can field decently out in left at Fenway but anytime a runner is moving on contact, he scores because Bay can't do s*** with the ball. And that's with the short field... put him out in the open at another stadium and he sucks even more.

 

And yes, 5 years is a lot different then 4. Why else would that be the sticking point for Bay and his agent?

Posted
It's not BS. Bay can field decently out in left at Fenway but anytime a runner is moving on contact, he scores because Bay can't do s*** with the ball. And that's with the short field... put him out in the open at another stadium and he sucks even more.

 

And yes, 5 years is a lot different then 4. Why else would that be the sticking point for Bay and his agent?

 

It's not a sticking point with Bay and his agent. It's a sticking point with the Sox. Look, Bay is trying to maximize his money and who could blame him? His health is just another excuse. As is his alleged lack of defense.

Posted
It's not a sticking point with Bay and his agent. It's a sticking point with the Sox. Look' date=' Bay is trying to maximize his money and who could blame him? His health is just another excuse. As is his alleged lack of defense.[/quote']

 

What are you talking about? Of course it's a sticking point for Bay. They've been pushing for at least five years in every discussion they've had thus far. Hell they're asking for 6 years right now, so what makes you think they'd settle for four years at a higher number?

 

I don't blame him for going big but I don't agree that he's deserving of it either.

 

Bay showed his liability as both a hitter and fielder last season, and it was most evident during his major slump in the middle of the year when the Sox needed him the most. Is he worth four years and $60-65 million? Hell yes. But 5 years and $75-80 million? No thanks... risk vs reward just isn't there. That extra season and $15-20 million may not seem like much, but it is when you look at who the Sox have coming up through their system and the kind of production we can expect at that point in Bay's career.

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