Official Red Sox offseason thread

[das11209]

We would have one if not for the Manny debacle.

 

Now your argument is wrong, because remember he made a hell of a push for Adrian Gonzales during the deadline.

 

Let us say Theo makes it a top priority for argument's sake - it will be hardly easy to get one. Power is the most sought comodity in the league because of short supply - more than starting pitchers or closers.

[Dipre]

He has a high LD% and he put up those BABIP numbers for three full consecutive seasons before he got hurt. Remember' date=' before his knee injury he was actually close to being a 5 tool player and he still has above average speed. That helps BABIP a lot.[/quote']

 

We were arguing his potential as a "True" cleanup hitter, not a 5-tool threat.

 

Interesting point. Bay certainly did get luckier in 2005 than he did this year. However, I do wish to remind you that Jason Bay has hit 30 or more HR's every full year in the majors except his rookie year, and his injury-stunted 2007. He also maintains a well above average OBP and OPS, even for a left fielder, which is one of the reasons I was challenging you specifically on Howard, because he doesn't.

 

Statistically the difference between Bay and a "true" power hitter is trivial. If there's a difference, it's purely in intangibles and the validity of an intangibles argument almost invariably boils down to how much posters like a certain player rather than a true evluation of things players can control on the field. That's why I was deriding the "scariness factor."

 

However, Howard averages over 80 XBH per season, Bay does not, and to specify the validity of my "scariness factor" as you dumbly call it, please compare the percentage of fastballs and strikes thrown to both Bay and Howard, you'll notice that the "Scarier" Howard, Pujols, Fielder, A-Rod, (Insert good cleanup hitter here) receives less strikes and fastballs than your average or above average player, and in this case, since Howard does whiff a lot more than Bay, by relating it to his contact%, he still received a lot less strikes than him in a similar amount of PA's, while also being thrown 10% less fastballs.

 

Fine. I see the logic here. I just disagree with it. I believe you laud, or blame, a player for things under his control. His league he couldn't control, and it's worth bearing in mind that the Pirates were a non-contender despite his best efforts rather than because of them.

 

I don't blame them. It's simply things that will be evaluated when awarding a player a new, multi-year contract. Or what, do you think his agent won't mention it?

[Dojji]

We were arguing his potential as a "True" cleanup hitter' date=' not a 5-tool threat.[/quote']

 

At this point we were arguing whether the BABIP over Bay's first 3 years was legitimate. My position is that any 3 year sample encompassing 1900 PA's is far more likely to represent a player's legitimate talent level than it is not to do so, especially since after a fluky bad year, he comes back to approximately the same level of performance in the subsequent 1300 PA's.

 

 

 

However, Howard averages over 80 XBH per season, and to specify the validity of my "scariness factor" as you dumbly call it, please compare the percentage of fastballs and strikes thrown to both Bay and Howard, you'll notice that the "Scarier" Howard, Pujols, Fielder, A-Rod, (Insert good cleanup hitter here) receives less strikes and fastballs than your average or above average player, and in this case, even if Howard does whiff a lot more than Bay, he still received a lot less strikes than Bay in a similar amount of PA's, while also being thrown 10% less fastballs.

 

That, or maybe something much simpler. Like say the known fact that Howard will chase out of the zone on breaking pitches while Bay is more patient and makes you go after the strike zone, which is easier to do with a fastball.

 

 

 

I don't blame them. It's simply things that will be evaluated when awarding a player a new, multi-year contract. Or what, do you think his agent won't mention it?

 

The fact that he consistently produces at near-elite levels is more valuable than a career year.

[Dipre]

At this point we were arguing whether the BABIP over Bay's first 3 years was legitimate. My position is that any 3 year sample encompassing 1900 PA's is far more likely to represent a player's legitimate talent level than it is not to do so' date=' especially since after a fluky bad year, he comes back to approximately the same level of performance in the subsequent 1300 PA's.[/quote']

 

 

Doubtful for a player that whiffs as much as Bay.

 

 

That, or maybe something much simpler. Like say the known fact that Howard will chase out of the zone on breaking pitches while Bay is more patient and makes you go after the strike zone, which is easier to do with a fastball.

 

This phenomena is not exclusive to Howard as i pointed out. But nice try.

 

 

The fact that he consistently produces at near-elite levels is more valuable than a career year.

 

Near-elite?

 

LOL.

[ORS]

Let us say Theo makes it a top priority for argument's sake - it will be hardly easy to get one. Power is the most sought comodity in the league because of short supply - more than starting pitchers or closers.

This just isn't true. There is no shortage of guys with excellent power who are very flawed in other areas. The shortage is guys who can field, run, hit for average.....and hit for power. Power on an island is not more sought after than quality pitching. It just isn't. You value it very highly, but the league does not agree with you.

[Dipre]

This just isn't true. There is no shortage of guys with excellent power who are very flawed in other areas. The shortage is guys who can field' date=' run, hit for average.....and hit for power.[/b'] Power on an island is not more sought after than quality pitching. It just isn't. You value it very highly, but the league does not agree with you.

 

And that's basically the type of hitter we need.

[Dojji]

Doubtful for a player that whiffs as much as Bay.

 

Strikeouts help BABIP more than they hurt it.

 

Near-elite?

 

LOL.

 

Which brings us to the whole crux of the problem. For some reason you don't believe a 900+ OPS, a 131 career OPS+, on a consistent 30 HR hitter, represents an elite level of offense.

 

I challenge you to find three other left fielders in this league who hit as well as Jason Bay. That's the top 10% of starting position players. Surely doable for a hitter that isn't "elite."

[Dipre]

Strikeouts help BABIP more than they hurt it.

 

Not necessarily.

 

Which brings us to the whole crux of the problem. For some reason you don't believe a 900+ OPS, a 131 career OPS+, on a consistent 30 HR hitter, represents an elite level of offense.

 

I challenge you to find three other left fielders in this league who hit as well as Jason Bay. That's the top 10% of starting position players. Surely doable for a hitter that isn't "elite."

 

It's "Really good" not elite.

 

Simple as that.

[example1]

i don't understand how anyone can argue against what Dipre is saying here. The Sox had Bay AND wanted Teixeira. Instead they added Victor Martinez--still a very nice pickup, but not the same offensive weapon. Martinez addresses the catching issue that will be coming up next offseason to. To me, they are still in the same place they were when they tried to sign Teix.

 

To me the issues isn't about replacing Bay (or Holliday). It's about supplementing them with someone else. It is about replacing Lowell, or Varitek, or Lowrie/Gonzalez or perhaps even Ellsbury.

 

I don't think I hear Dipre saying that Jason Bay sucks. I don't think he does, certainly. I thnk I just read him saying Bay's not a cleanup hitter, and I agree with that. Tito agrees with that, as does the FO. I want Bay on this team if he can hit 5 or 6 moving forward. Again, he was their most valuable offensive player this year by WARP. They just need to get Bay +. And that + can't 'just' be HWSNBN.

 

Opposing pitchers know that if they can execute their pitches and throw them for strikes, the Red Sox (especially on the road) are vulnerable. No matter how good the Sox pitching is, it can't overcome a team that can't score runs on the road, it just can't.

 

Sign Bay--he's more likely to sign, then get someone else to hit 4th, thus moving everyone into more favorable positions and, with the addition of Victor Martinez, give the Sox a really, really good lineup moving forward.

 

Fielder is a FA after 2010, so it seems like the ideal time to swoop in and get him before the big bidding starts and when you can dangle a bit more than others. Gonzalez would take more than that because he's further off. I still imagine that Hanley can be had for the right price too, if not now eventually, and the Sox MUST have their eyes on that option. Hanley wouldn't be a true #4, but he would be a great addition becxause he would round out the offense and make the weakest hitter probably Mike Lowell. That's a very, very good lineup.

 

I know people think Hanley is a pipedream, and he probably is for 2010, but he will be available at some point. He's not a Marlin for life.

[example1]

This just isn't true. There is no shortage of guys with excellent power who are very flawed in other areas. The shortage is guys who can field' date=' run, hit for average.....and hit for power. Power on an island is not more sought after than quality pitching. It just isn't. You value it very highly, but the league does not agree with you.[/quote']

 

 

Also, any of the above but young and cost controlled is more valuable than approaching FA and established for many teams.

[Dipre]

i don't understand how anyone can argue against what Dipre is saying here. The Sox had Bay AND wanted Teixeira. Instead they added Victor Martinez--still a very nice pickup, but not the same offensive weapon. Martinez addresses the catching issue that will be coming up next offseason to. To me, they are still in the same place they were when they tried to sign Teix.

 

To me the issues isn't about replacing Bay (or Holliday). It's about supplementing them with someone else. It is about replacing Lowell, or Varitek, or Lowrie/Gonzalez or perhaps even Ellsbury.

 

I don't think I hear Dipre saying that Jason Bay sucks. I don't think he does, certainly. I thnk I just read him saying Bay's not a cleanup hitter, and I agree with that. Tito agrees with that, as does the FO. I want Bay on this team if he can hit 5 or 6 moving forward. Again, he was their most valuable offensive player this year by WARP. They just need to get Bay +. And that + can't 'just' be HWSNBN.

 

Opposing pitchers know that if they can execute their pitches and throw them for strikes, the Red Sox (especially on the road) are vulnerable. No matter how good the Sox pitching is, it can't overcome a team that can't score runs on the road, it just can't.

 

Sign Bay--he's more likely to sign, then get someone else to hit 4th, thus moving everyone into more favorable positions and, with the addition of Victor Martinez, give the Sox a really, really good lineup moving forward.

 

Fielder is a FA after 2010, so it seems like the ideal time to swoop in and get him before the big bidding starts and when you can dangle a bit more than others. Gonzalez would take more than that because he's further off. I still imagine that Hanley can be had for the right price too, if not now eventually, and the Sox MUST have their eyes on that option. Hanley wouldn't be a true #4, but he would be a great addition becxause he would round out the offense and make the weakest hitter probably Mike Lowell. That's a very, very good lineup.

 

I know people think Hanley is a pipedream, and he probably is for 2010, but he will be available at some point. He's not a Marlin for life.

 

THANK YOU. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I MEANT.

[example1]

THANK YOU. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I MEANT.

 

For years the Yankees had players who weren't ideal #4 hitters scattered up and down their lineup. Giambi, Sheffield, Matsui, etc., We can argue about the affect it had on the team as a whole (payroll, personnell, etc.,) but we can't argue that the team had a poor offense or that they weren't explosive enough to win it all. They certainly were.

 

The idea with Bay is to get selfish. It's the same thing they've already done with Drew. Drew is the highest paid player on the team and he hits 8th. The Sox brag about him hitting 8th.

 

Doj is right in some respects, namely, that there's a risk that Bay's production won't be properly valued if we don't see him as a true #4 htiter. I think he could be a fine #4 hitter on other clubs. However, the Red Sox should get selfish. They should have their Bay and eat it too. He seems like a guy who could bat in the middle (see 5th, 6th or 7th) on an all-time great team. He's just not a 2010 cleanup hitter in the AL East. There should be better options for that.

[Dojji]

I don't think I hear Dipre saying that Jason Bay sucks. I don't think he does' date=' certainly. I thnk I just read him saying Bay's not a cleanup hitter, and I agree with that. Tito agrees with that, as does the FO. I want Bay on this team if he can hit 5 or 6 moving forward. Again, he was their most valuable offensive player this year by WARP. They just need to get Bay +. And that + can't 'just' be HWSNBN. [/quote']

 

I just don't see that guy out there this offseason. That means if we want one, we probably have to force the issue by overloading a trade to make a team part with a player they probably don't want to lose. I don't think that's a viable way to do business long term.

 

I'm not argung against getting a viable middle of the order hitter. If you can get one that's always a good idea. What I'm worried about is that that guy doesn't really seem to be out there right now, and that settling for the next best thing just gives you guys like the ones we already have -- you don't gain anything.

 

Now something might shake out this offseason that changes that. If it does I expect Theo to be on top of it. But right now? "Get a big proven cleanup hitter type" is the sort of thing that's a whole lot easier to say than it is to do.

[Dipre]

For years the Yankees had players who weren't ideal #4 hitters scattered up and down their lineup. Giambi, Sheffield, Matsui, etc., We can argue about the affect it had on the team as a whole (payroll, personnell, etc.,) but we can't argue that the team had a poor offense or that they weren't explosive enough to win it all. They certainly were.

 

The idea with Bay is to get selfish. It's the same thing they've already done with Drew. Drew is the highest paid player on the team and he hits 8th. The Sox brag about him hitting 8th.

 

Doj is right in some respects, namely, that there's a risk that Bay's production won't be properly valued if we don't see him as a true #4 htiter. I think he could be a fine #4 hitter on other clubs. However, the Red Sox should get selfish. They should have their Bay and eat it too. He seems like a guy who could bat in the middle (see 5th, 6th or 7th) on an all-time great team. He's just not a 2010 cleanup hitter in the AL East. There should be better options for that.

 

This is my point however:

 

Board: "You know, this team kinda needs a new cleanup hitter, because Bay, our main power threat, just doesn't cut it".

 

Doiji: "Bay's the perfect cleanup hitter and an elite performer"

 

Board: "No he's not"

 

Doiji: "Yes he is"

 

That's about the size of it.

[Dipre]

I just don't see that guy out there this offseason. That means if we want one, we probably have to force the issue by overloading a trade to make a team part with a player they probably don't want to lose. I don't think that's a viable way to do business long term.

 

I'm not argung against getting a viable middle of the order hitter. If you can get one that's always a good idea. What I'm worried about is that that guy doesn't really seem to be out there right now, and that settling for the next best thing just gives you guys like the ones we already have -- you don't gain anything.

 

Now something might shake out this offseason that changes that. If it does I expect Theo to be on top of it. But right now? "Get a big proven cleanup hitter type" is the sort of thing that's a whole lot easier to say than it is to do.

 

http://i231.photobucket.com/albums/ee24/MaxVest/backpedal.jpg

[ORS]

You forgot the part where Dojji attempts to steer the topic away from the initial argument where he's a sinking ship taking on water.

[Dipre]

You forgot the part where Dojji attempts to steer the topic away from the initial argument where he's a sinking ship taking on water.

 

a700 and i discussed that a couple pages before.

[Dipre]

When Doji has a weak argument' date=' which is just about all the time, he tries to take you off on tangents to argue those instead of the main point. When he agrees with me, I usually rethink my position.[/quote']

 

Here it is, ORS, quoted for truth.

[Dojji]

http://i231.photobucket.com/albums/ee24/MaxVest/backpedal.jpg

 

If you want to see it that way. However, right now the guys we "have" barely includes Bay, and there's some heavy lobbying from certain quarters to jettison him. That's a big part of why I'm a little sensitive where he's concerned.

 

I think we're at real risk of losing offensive might rather than gaining it this offseason. If we ignore Bay and try to "get cute" with Matt Holliday, it could cost us the opportunity to get either player. Anything you acquire at that point amounts to a desperate effort to make up lost ground.

 

I would rather overpay to keep Bay than "move on" to nothing in particular. If you can get someone else as well as keep Bay? Fine. But Jason Bay would be a better #4 hitter than anyone we currently have under contract for the 2010 season.

[Dipre]

If you want to see it that way. However, right now the guys we "have" barely includes Bay, and there's some heavy lobbying from certain quarters to jettison him. That's a big part of why I'm a little sensitive where he's concerned.

 

Jason Bay would be a better #4 hitter than anyone we currently have under contract for the 2010 season.

 

Kevin Youkilis.

 

Had he not lost time due to injury, he would have had (hell, maybe he had) a better overall season than Bay.

[Dojji]

Kevin Youkilis.

 

Youks is a fine hitter. Very good even. But he doesn't have Bay's power and only beats his OBP by a handful of points. I'd say of the two, it should probably have been Bay hitting fourth this year. I don't know exactly why Tito felt otherwise.

[example1]

I just don't see that guy out there this offseason. That means if we want one' date=' we probably have to force the issue by overloading a trade to make a team part with a player they probably don't want to lose. I don't think that's a viable way to do business long term. [/quote']

 

No, it isn't a viable way to do business long term, but it is a very viable way to get your broken Rolls Royce out of the desert. In the end you still have a nice, fully functioning Rolls Royce. It won't take all of the Sox best prospects to land Prince Fielder. The key would be to make a move for Fielder and then resign him immediately. He'll cost a lot, but nobody can argue with his production.

 

I'm not argung against getting a viable middle of the order hitter. If you can get one that's always a good idea. What I'm worried about is that that guy doesn't really seem to be out there right now, and that settling for the next best thing just gives you guys like the ones we already have -- you don't gain anything.

 

Well, in the case of Bay we would be resigning him simply to keep the status quo. In this instance, that's a fine thing to do. Let's be honest about what we have: we have a team that is built around OBP and pitching. It is a very, very good team that has won 94-96 games all years but once since Theo took over. They will still be that if they keep things the same for next year.

 

Now something might shake out this offseason that changes that. If it does I expect Theo to be on top of it. But right now? "Get a big proven cleanup hitter type" is the sort of thing that's a whole lot easier to say than it is to do.

 

This was a team that was willing to shell out $20m + for Teixeira. Now the lack of that move has backfired into a probable NYY World Series, and there's no reason to think that will change next year without some moves. One thing I like about this FO is that they have a chip on their shoulder. They will want to do something to make this team a viable WS contender again. When others were complaining that the Sox 'wasted' their time pursuing Adrian Gonzalez and HWSNBN, I think it was just the type of aggressive thinking this team will need to get back into it.

 

Bay and/or Holliday need to be a GIVEN moving forward, then they need to add someone else. That should be offseason priority #1.

[Dojji]

You forgot the part where Dojji attempts to steer the topic away from the initial argument where he's a sinking ship taking on water.

 

No, I think we're actually still noodling around the initial argument for once. Although I still don't really feel I have a satisfactory answer for exactly WHY people don't seem to feel that a 30-35 HR hitter is somehow not a true #4.

[Dipre]

Youks is a fine hitter. Very good even. But he doesn't have Bay's power and only beats his OBP by a handful of points. I'd say of the two' date=' it should probably have been Bay hitting fourth this year. I don't know exactly why Tito felt otherwise.[/quote']

 

Probably because of his .234/333/478 line hitting 4th in 201 ABs.

[Dojji]

 

Bay and/or Holliday need to be a GIVEN moving forward, then they need to add someone else. That should be offseason priority #1.

 

I agree. I do worry though that sticking Holliday into the conversation just creates a vacillation we don't need. at least for the time being, all Sox efforts FO need to be focused on on re-signing Bay. If it gets to the offseason and Bay wants to test the waters, then you talk about other options. We have a lot to lose if we screw this up though so I hope we aren't taking half measures or trying to get clever.

[Dojji]

Probably because of his .234/333/478 line hitting 4th in 201 ABs.

 

I don't really believe in "this player bats X in tis part of the lineup" except as statistical curios. Unless it's painfully obvious that hitting in a certain spot gets in a player's head (like how some hitters struggle in the leadoff spot for example) I consider that stuff to be at most a tiebreaker.

[Dipre]

I agree. I do worry though that sticking Holliday into the conversation just creates a vacillation we don't need. at least for the time being' date=' all Sox efforts FO need to be focused on on re-signing Bay. If it gets to the offseason and Bay wants to test the waters, then you talk about other options. We have a lot to lose if we screw this up though so I hope we aren't taking half measures or trying to get clever.[/quote']

 

Your initial argument was that Bay is a viable cleanup hitter.

 

He's not.

 

Don't backpedal.

 

Either admit he's not or prove he is.

[Dipre]

I don't really believe in "this player bats X in tis part of the lineup" except as statistical curios. Unless it's painfully obvious that hitting in a certain spot gets in a player's head (like how some hitters struggle in the leadoff spot for example) I consider that stuff to be at most a tiebreaker.

 

Of course you don't believe in it.

 

Kevin Youkilis batting cleanup this year: .338/.447/.573.

 

Youk wins the tiebreaker.

[example1]

If you want to see it that way. However' date=' right now the guys we "have" barely includes Bay, and there's some heavy lobbying from certain quarters to jettison him. That's a big part of why I'm a little sensitive where he's concerned.[/quote']

 

I completely get this. If the sox allow an inch of wiggle room the Yankees can sign Bay at 19m+ and then the Sox are completely screwed because there is no assurance that the Sox can sign Holliday over the Cardinals or Dodgers or other teams who need a player like that. I think Bay likes Boston and wants to stay if they pay him like one of the game's best outfielders--which he is, production wise. I think the FO gets this, and if he is allowed to leave and they get neither then there has been some aggregious error in the FO and I will blame them to no end.

 

I think we're at real risk of losing offensive might rather than gaining it this offseason. If we ignore Bay and try to "get cute" with Matt Holliday, it could cost us the opportunity to get either player. Anything you acquire at that point amounts to a desperate effort to make up lost ground.

 

So sign Bay quickly, try to get Holliday too, and then set the sights on a 1B or 3B or SS. If they land Holliday then plan to have Bay as the DH moving forward after 2010, and use Holliday and Bay as versions of 2009's Rocco Baldelli to shift around in the OF to supplement Drew. It may be a weird combination of players, but it would guard against injury (Lowell, Ortiz, Drew) and would give them a season to get their chips in order for the post Lowell, Ortiz and Martinez season in 2011.

 

I would rather overpay to keep Bay than "move on" to nothing in particular. If you can get someone else as well as keep Bay? Fine. But Jason Bay would be a better #4 hitter than anyone we currently have under contract for the 2010 season.

 

The Sox don't think so. They prefer Youkilis and it probably makes sense. His OBP is higher and he's one of the league's best ABs. Hell, if the Sox get someone who drives the s*** out of the ball they could have that person hit 5th or 6th with Bay and those guys would basically take the role of cleanup hitter. If Youk and Martinez get on base like they do then the team can delay the power a bit in the lineup and have the mashers 5-6-7.

[Dojji]

Your initial argument was that Bay is a viable cleanup hitter.

 

He's not.

 

Don't backpedal.

 

Either admit he's not or prove he is.

 

What's to prove? He's a high level power hitter who's been very consistent year by year and hits 30-35 HR's while maintaining a very high OBP. I don't think too many teams in this league would blink at batting him fourth. In fact it takes a top offense to bat him anywhere else (except maybe third).