Jason Bay, Redsox ready to talk

[CrespoBlows]

$18 million for Bay? I don't think the market is going to allow such a large contract come winter. The Red Sox are being smart by waiting.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I agree there really should be no rush at all to sign him for huge money. Not to jump ship during a slump but he looks pretty terrible out there lately. Wait till the end of the year, I can't imagine his price range goes up anymore after peaking in late May.

[BSN07]

You dont see any other team offering more than 2yrs 20 mil for Bay? Put the crackpipe down

 

 

(Careers)

 

Bay- .280 AVG .375OBP .517 SLG 30+HR 100-110RBI

 

Dunn- .250 AVG .382 OBP .519 SLG 40HR 100+ RBI

 

Both have Defensive issues, albeit Dunn having more.

 

 

 

Wow that's soooo different, I can't believe I thought they were comparable.

 

 

Further more let's look at current numbers

 

Dunn- .260 AVG, .395 OBP, .534 SLG, 23HR, 62 RBI (89 Games)

 

Bay- .258 AVG, .378 OBP, .522 SLG, 20HR, 72 RBI (88 Games)

[Dutchy]

If Bay doesn't take a reasonable contract, I'd let him go, sign Matt Holliday for cheaper and trade for Adrian Gonzalez. We wouldn't have a single subpar defensive player in our starting 9.

 

There are plenty of ways which we could make up the difference in offense between Holliday and Bay, and be better, more fundamentally sound team overall.

[Dojji]

Adrian Gonzalez is not available.

 

Even if all players are available, Adrian Gonzalez is not available.

 

Put that thought to bed, tuck it in, turn on the night light, and let it go to sleep.

[TedWilliams101]

Yeah, and you forgot to mention his average (.32 lower than Bay) and the fact that he challenges the strikeout record every year.

 

I'll admit, I think they are about a wash offensively (Dunn has WAY more power, but Bay hits for a better average, strikes out less, drives in more runs, and is MUCH better with RISP).

 

Also, his contract is $20 million/2 years, so he is essentially getting $10 million a year, not $8 (He makes $12 million next season).

 

Honestly, though, you picked the ONE guy who didn't get a big contract. He is the exception, not the rule. Soriano got a $136 million/8y contract in '07, Vernon Wells a $126 million/7y contract in '08, Carlos Lee a $100 million/5y contract in '07, Torii Hunter a $90 million/5y contract in '08, Ichiro a $90 million/5y contract in '08, Aramis Ramirez a $75 million/5y contract in '07, Howard a $54 million/3y contract in '08, Dye a $22 million/2y contract in '08. I could keep going.

 

The other thing you have to take into consideration is market value. Market value goes up if there is a shortage of that commodity. The legit power/elite hitters under 33 in the '10 FA class are Blalock, Glaus, Andrew Jones, Matt Holliday, and Bay. That's it. Not exactly an eye-popping group.

[BSN07]

Yeah, and you forgot to mention his average (.32 lower than Bay) and the fact that he challenges the strikeout record every year.

 

I'll admit, I think they are about a wash offensively (Dunn has WAY more power, but Bay hits for a better average, strikes out less, drives in more runs, and is MUCH better with RISP).

 

Also, his contract is $20 million/2 years, so he is essentially getting $10 million a year, not $8 (He makes $12 million next season).

 

Honestly, though, you picked the ONE guy who didn't get a big contract. He is the exception, not the rule. Soriano got a $136 million/8y contract in '07, Vernon Wells a $126 million/7y contract in '08, Carlos Lee a $100 million/5y contract in '07, Torii Hunter a $90 million/5y contract in '08, Ichiro a $90 million/5y contract in '08, Aramis Ramirez a $75 million/5y contract in '07, Howard a $54 million/3y contract in '08, Dye a $22 million/2y contract in '08. I could keep going.

 

The other thing you have to take into consideration is market value. Market value goes up if there is a shortage of that commodity. The legit power/elite hitters under 33 in the '10 FA class are Blalock, Glaus, Andrew Jones, Matt Holliday, and Bay. That's it. Not exactly an eye-popping group.

 

I believe BA AVG is the first stat I showed.

 

 

And you selected everyone that was signed in the "old market". There aren't many teams that will be offering those type of deals.

[TedWilliams101]

Last off-season was the "old market"? If that's the case, what basis are we to make on the value in the "new market"? How can you use Dunn's contract signed in '08, call it the "new market", while call other deals done that same off-season as "old market"?

 

Let me remind you of some of the ridiculous deals made in this "new market".

Tex: $180 million/8y

Sabathia: $161 million/7y

Burnett: $85.5 million/5y

Manny: $45 million/2y

Howard: $54 million/3y

Dempster: $52 million/4y

K-Rod: $37 million/3y

K Wood: $22.5 million/2y

Young: $64 million/4y

Hanley Ramirez: $58.5 million/5y

 

Those were all deals from this past off season. That doesn't look like the Market is going to be much cheaper... Also, a little more food for thought, since 2008, 11 outfielders have signed contracts worth $11+ million a year.

[Cocos Disciples]

Hafner signed mid 2007, and I think Arroyo wasn't last year either (Cot's is struggling on my computer).Edit: Arroyo was Feb 07.

[Cocos Disciples]

They're not right, and they didn't mess up. Read when it says they signed, not when the contract starts.

[TedWilliams101]

Hafner signed mid 2007' date=' and I think Arroyo wasn't last year either (Cot's is struggling on my computer).Edit: Arroyo was Feb 07.[/quote']

 

OK, I must have been reading it as it was signed in '09 and extended to 2011. I just edited them off the list.

[example1]

This discussion is really pretty jumbled.

 

I don't see why people use traditional counting stats or rate stats anymore without using numbers like WARP or VORP. I've said it a thousand times, but it just seems like there are too many variables. Who is hitting behind him? What is the park-effects? What league and division did they play in? The AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS numbers have a use, but they only tell part of the story.

 

WARP:

 

Jason Bay (last 4 years + 2009):

2005: 7.9

2006: 8.0

2007: 0.4

2008: 1.7

2009: 3.9

 

Adam Dunn (last 4 years + 2009):

2005: 5.7

2006: 1.8

2007: 2.6

2008: 2.1

2009: 1.8

 

 

 

VORP:

 

Dunn:

2005: 44.0

2006: 23.8

2007: 45.6

2008: 26.3 + 10.3 = 36.6

2009: (27.6)

 

Bay:

2005: 72.3

2006: 50.7

2007: 5.1

2008: 33.8 + 14.5 = 48.3

2009: (27.1)

 

I don't think this leaves much question that a healthy and productive Jason Bay is a better player than Adam Dunn. VORP does not take defense into account, but WARP does. Bay had an awful 2007, but that shouldn't hurt him overall.

 

I think any hope of Bay getting a Dunn-like deal, or of Holliday getting a Dunn-like deal are absurd. The problem with those guys is that neither the Sox or Yankees were interested in Dunn so his value fell. Also, the Angels went another direction, the Mets had spent plenty of money on their team already, the Phils got other players instead, etc.,

 

Furthermore, I think that to assume only the Sox or Yankees will be interested in a guy like Bay is overstating it a bit. Any reason the Angels wouldn't make a play for him? Vlad is coming off of his contract, and so is Lackey (who may go elsewhere). They were willing to pay Teixeira a fair amount, so they too should be looking at a guy like Bay.

 

Overall, I'm just saying that the market for Bay will approach the top-paid players market and that Holliday will be well-above guys with no defensive skill like Dunn. Hell, Holiday made 9.5 and 13.5 the last two years... he won't take much of a paycut, if anything.

[Dutchy]

Adrian Gonzalez is not available.

 

Even if all players are available, Adrian Gonzalez is not available.

 

Put that thought to bed, tuck it in, turn on the night light, and let it go to sleep.

 

He's not available DURING the season. But a trade in the offseason is definitely possible.

[CrespoBlows]

Last off-season was the "old market"? If that's the case, what basis are we to make on the value in the "new market"? How can you use Dunn's contract signed in '08, call it the "new market", while call other deals done that same off-season as "old market"?

 

Let me remind you of some of the ridiculous deals made in this "new market".

Tex: $180 million/8y

Sabathia: $161 million/7y

Burnett: $85.5 million/5y

Manny: $45 million/2y

Howard: $54 million/3y

Dempster: $52 million/4y

K-Rod: $37 million/3y

K Wood: $22.5 million/2y

Young: $64 million/4y

Hanley Ramirez: $58.5 million/5y

 

Those were all deals from this past off season. That doesn't look like the Market is going to be much cheaper... Also, a little more food for thought, since 2008, 11 outfielders have signed contracts worth $11+ million a year.

 

The economy is going to be in worse shape in December 2009, than it was in 2008. Dempster, Wood, Howard, Manny, K-Rod, and Hanley don't look like horrible deals. Besides, most of those players got less than they originally had wanted.

[TedWilliams101]

Example, where did you get those WARP and VORP stats from? I looked up Bay and Dunn's WARP and VORP stats on basebalprospectus and fangraphs... and they were all different. Does each site/group make their own calculations/modifications/etc?

[example1]

The economy is going to be in worse shape in December 2009' date=' than it was in 2008. [b']Dempster, Wood, Howard, Manny, K-Rod, and Hanley don't look like horrible deals.[/b] Besides, most of those players got less than they originally had wanted.

 

I agree with this list... I have a hard time saying Manny was a good deal, but not horrible is another thing. He makes that team 100% more relevant.

 

I think one thing that could make Bay a lot of money is a 2009 World Series in Boston and a solid performance in the playoffs.

[TedWilliams101]

If there was a better market for power/elite hitters, than I wouldn't expect Bay to get a big payday. However, that market is VERY thin, so I'm sure there are plenty of big market teams that would get into a bidding war. Teams can either get a much older bat or one that's not nearly as good. Bay and Holliday will be the cream of the crop with not much in between.

[example1]

Example' date=' where did you get those WARP and VORP stats from? I looked up Bay and Dunn's WARP and VORP stats on basebalprospectus and fangraphs... and they were all different. Does each site/group make their own calculations/modifications/etc?[/quote']

 

I'm not sure how each site does it, though my guess is that different organizations have different definitions of their statistics/propriatary rights to various metrics.

 

The ones I use are from BP. I get the VORP from statistics and the WARP either from the statistics or from the player's DT Card.

[jacksonianmarch]

Abreu, Burrell, and Dunn signed for cheap last yr for multiple reasons. One of them was the other talent available. NYY needed a power hitter, they got the best one on the market. LAD needed a power hitter, they got Manny.

 

The second was a need. The big market teams didnt need power hitting outfielders prior to 2009. Boston didnt need one. The Yankees didnt need one (and after they got Swish and Tex they didnt need anything else offensively). The Tigers didnt need one. The White Sox didnt need one. The Angels got Hunter the yr before and waited out Abreu. The Mets werent looking. The Cubs werent looking. The Phillies had 3 all star OFers. So, the need wasnt there for the big market clubs. That hurt the outfielders significantly.

 

And third, the economy was in the shitter and the mid market teams were getting hit hard. So once you get outside of the top 8 or 10 spenders in the game, the offers werent there for guys like Abreu and Dunn.

 

Those three factors raised the perfect storm for there to be contract hell for those OFers. That wont happen this yr. The Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels will all need OFers. Bay will be far and away the most wanted commodity. Holliday will be second. Then Abreu, Damon, Matsui et al will follow suit. If you think Bay is gonna be had on the cheap on the open market when he is the best offensive option available this offseason, then you are smoking crack.

[BSN07]

Last off-season was the "old market"? If that's the case, what basis are we to make on the value in the "new market"? How can you use Dunn's contract signed in '08, call it the "new market", while call other deals done that same off-season as "old market"?

 

Let me remind you of some of the ridiculous deals made in this "new market".

Tex: $180 million/8y- Yankee

Sabathia: $161 million/7y- Yankee

Burnett: $85.5 million/5y- Yankee

Manny: $45 million/2y- Over paid

Howard: $54 million/3y -Great deal

Dempster: $52 million/4y -Over paid

K-Rod: $37 million/3y -good deal, not too many clubs outside of the top 5 money wise could have given it to him.

K Wood: $22.5 million/2y- Doubt he would get that this season, and Cleveland overpaid for one of the only closers on the market.

Young: $64 million/4y- Horrible deal, signed a couple years before the "new market" was set

Hanley Ramirez: $58.5 million/5y- Top 5 MLB talent, deserves top money

 

Those were all deals from this past off season. That doesn't look like the Market is going to be much cheaper... Also, a little more food for thought, since 2008, 11 outfielders have signed contracts worth $11+ million a year.

 

 

Notice where most those deals come from? Besides the Yanks, it's all pretty much big market clubs outside of maybe Cleveland. Phillies won't need Bay, neither will LAD. LAA, NYM, NYY, and Boston are his likely landing spots.

 

 

 

As I said before there are only a few teams that can offer these large deals. The Sox are trying to stay away from handing them out, except for top tier talent. Tex was that. Bay is good, but he's not a premier bat in the league. Although the Yankees may pay Bay like one, but that's because they don't care how many zero's are in the deal, just as long as there is an AS at each position:D.

 

NYM, Bos, NYY, LAA are the only teams that can offer Bay 15M+ a year. Maybe LAD if they found some way to rid themselves of Manny, but I think there stuck with him. Every other team in the league is watching payroll closely, trying to get younger and cheaper. Add a big contract like Bay just doesn't seem like a great business move for most teams is really all I'm trying to say.

 

I see the Sox offering somewhere around 12-15M a season. If he doesn't except that, he will most likely be a Yankee, because I don't see any other team offering more then that besides them. Other teams will be interested in him, but if that yanks want him, they will get him.

[Dipre]

Bay's gonna get paid.

 

But in this market, he'll be much closer to $15 mill a year than $18 mill a year, put your money on it.

[BSN07]

Bay's gonna get paid.

 

But in this market, he'll be much closer to $15 mill a year than $18 mill a year, put your money on it.

 

I see most interested teams offering him around 4 yrs/50-60M. I don't think too many teams can afford more then that.

 

The Yankees will offer him 6 yrs/150M and out bid everyone by 100M.

 

 

Probably more like 6/120 though.

[Dipre]

I see most teams offering him around 4 yrs/50-60M . The Yankees will offer him 6 yrs/150M and out bid everyone by 100M.

 

It's funny 'cause it's true. wut.

[ted521]

It's funny 'cause it's true. wut.

 

Funny...like old people falling

[Dojji]

He's not available DURING the season. But a trade in the offseason is definitely possible.

 

 

Adrian Gonzalez is signed through 2011 if the Padres pick up his option, he costs them about $5M average over the next two years for one of the best first base bats in the National League.

 

Trading him while he's this cheap would be absolutely stupid for San Diego to even contemplate.

 

You want a SD player, talk to them about Chris Young. Adrian Gonzalez is the last guy to leave.

[SoxSport]

The Yankees can outbid everybody else on any player because they have the most money and there is no salary cap. So they can use their cable money as leverage. They did so this year signing 3 big ticket FAs. They are pretty desperate to win. The media's team--so to speak.

 

They can get Bay if he is on the open market by simply outbidding the Red Sox--as they did with Teixeira. But Tex also wanted to play in NY. Maybe Bay wants to play in Boston. If so, the Sox should give him his $14-15 mil for 5 years, and keep him off the open market.

[WhiskeyBreath]

I see most interested teams offering him around 4 yrs/50-60M.

 

That is what I'm guessing he will get for his next deal.

[Dutchy]

It's funny 'cause it's true. wut.

 

I doubt Epstein would mind taking two of the Yankees' 2010 draft picks off their hands.

[example1]

I doubt Epstein would mind taking two of the Yankees' 2010 draft picks off their hands.

 

But what happens if the Sox sign Holliday or another Type A? Don't they lose similar picks?

[Dutchy]

But what happens if the Sox sign Holliday or another Type A? Don't they lose similar picks?

 

Saito's also a Type A, so the draft picks we'd get if he signed elsewhere would absorb the two we'd lose if we signed Matt Holliday. I know Penny's a Type B, and Smoltz has got to be at least a Type B as well, perhaps a Type A.

 

I think the only way we wouldn't gain draft picks from the Yankees would be if we maxed out on the compensation draft picks.