Jason Bay, Redsox ready to talk

[BSN07]

Bay will get more than 10 mil' date=' count on it[/quote']

 

Ok that's very possible. But I bet it's less then Drew's deal, in years or AAV(15m).

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

I bet the Red Sox offer him something like $70 million over 5 years and he accepts within the next two weeks.

 

That much for a .260 hitter??

[Dojji]

That little for a 129OPS+ hitter?

[BSN07]

That much for a .260 hitter??

 

Batting average isn't the best gauge for evaluating a hitters worth.

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

Batting average isn't the best gauge for evaluating a hitters worth.

 

Thats just me being John Henry.

[SoxSport]

I think he'll get Drew money. That's 5/70 mil. Give or take 5 mil. And he'll be a bargain compared to Texeira.

[jacksonianmarch]

His value could absolutely skyrocket if the sox go deep into the playoffs again. Remember, teams love to go after guys who prove they can lead a great team and if the sox win it all, Bay will be one hell of an expensive commodity, since he is your best player

[jacksonianmarch]

Sorry, the above post belongs in the Bay thread

[Dutchy]

His value could absolutely skyrocket if the sox go deep into the playoffs again. Remember' date=' teams love to go after guys who prove they can lead a great team and if the sox win it all, Bay will be one hell of an expensive commodity, since he is your best player[/quote']

 

I doubt that Bay is our best player. Beckett, Lester, Papelbon and Youkilis probably have been more valuable to us this year. But he's a hell of a player, and if he reaches the free market, he'll probably make a ton of money. Which is why I'm glad the Red Sox are trying to lock him up now.

[example1]

I doubt that Bay is our best player. Beckett' date=' Lester, Papelbon and Youkilis probably have been more valuable to us this year. But he's a hell of a player, and if he reaches the free market, he'll probably make a ton of money. Which is why I'm glad the Red Sox are trying to lock him up now.[/quote']

 

Continuing the off-topic discussion for a second (thanks Jacko!! ) WARP puts the top-10 2009 Red Sox in this order:

 

Bay (4.0)

Beckett (3.8)

Papelbon (3.4)

Youkilis (3.3)

Pedroia (3.0)

Wakefield (2.9)

Lester (2.9)

Ramirez (2.9)

Varitek (2.8)

Drew (2.0)

 

Seems about right to me...

[TheKilo]

Drew's BA with RISP is .189, Bay's is .333

 

check the sky for flying pigs but this time, jacko's right

 

Not a repeatable skill.

[TheKilo]

I think people are glossing over just how bad of a defensive LF Bay is, if for no other reason than he replaced Manny.

[BSN07]

Bay's defense is adequate. The monster and having Jacoby on his left help a lot as well.

[Dojji]

Happily pay AAV $15-18M for Bay

[BSN07]

Happily pay AAV $15-18M for Bay

 

Why when no other team will even come close to that except the Yankees? They won't offer him that much unless he hits the FA market and they absolutely have to if they want to keep him. if there going to sign him before he hits FA, it will be somewhere around 12-15M(IMO).

[Rdsxmbnt]

I know Jacko has been trying to drive up the price and value of Bay lately, but I don't think GMs read the forums .

 

I'd say maximum he gets JD Drew money. 18 mil a year? I'll pass and take the draft picks as far I'm concerned.

[TheKilo]

I know Jacko has been trying to drive up the price and value of Bay lately, but I don't think GMs read the forums .

 

I'd say maximum he gets JD Drew money. 18 mil a year? I'll pass and take the draft picks as far I'm concerned.

 

Who's replacing Bay in LF then?

 

Honest question, I don't disagree with you, just playing Devil's advocate.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Who's replacing Bay in LF then?

 

Honest question, I don't disagree with you, just playing Devil's advocate.

 

Personally I like Holliday. After his subpar year this year I don't think it would take the money and/or years to lock him up.

 

To stir the pot a little: Since May 1st...

Holliday: .288/.396/.438/.834

Bay: .242/.343/.496/.839

 

I'm going to be honest, Bay's batting average is concerning to me and I hope the Sox don't overpay for him. He's having a solid year but really it's not a whole lot better than his career averages and his first month really inflates what he's done since then.

[Teddyballgame10]

Personally I like Holliday. After his subpar year this year I don't think it would take the money and/or years to lock him up.

 

To stir the pot a little: Since May 1st...

Holliday: .288/.396/.438/.834

Bay: .242/.343/.496/.839

 

I'm going to be honest, Bay's batting average is concerning to me and I hope the Sox don't overpay for him. He's having a solid year but really it's not a whole lot better than his career averages and his first month really inflates what he's done since then.

 

Subpar because he is not playing half his game in Coors field.

[BoSox21]

to give Holliday the benefit of the doubt, most hitters have an adjustment period when they change leagues for the first time plus he moved to a cavernous ballpark on top of it

[TheKilo]

Plus Matt Holliday is a much, much better defender than Jason Bay.

 

I made a post a while back with his splits away from Coors over the last few years and their steady improvement, I'll look for it.

[TheKilo]

Not entirely true.

 

Holliday's Away Numbers:

 

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

 

2004 - .240/.287/.367/.654

2005 - .256/.313/.416/.729

2006 - .280/.333/.485/.819

2007 - .301/.374/.485/.860

2008 - .301/.400/.459/.859

 

 

There's a distinct upward trend after his awful 2004 and 2005 seasons. In a hitter's park like Fenway I think the guy could flourish.

 

Too bad he's not a FA til after next season, though.

[Mr Crunchy]

Can Matt Holiday perform in the late innings like Bay has?

The man has been nothing short of miraculous from the 7th inning on and he's leading the free world in RBI since we got him.

[TheKilo]

Can Matt Holiday perform in the late innings like Bay has?

The man has been nothing short of miraculous from the 7th inning on and he's leading the free world in RBI since we got him.

 

I want Bay too, I'm simply playing Devil's Advocate.

[BSN07]

Holliday be great. But Boras is going to want a lot of money and if no one will give it he will probably advise a 1 year deal an re enter the market the following year.

[Cocos Disciples]

Holliday be great. But Boras is going to want a lot of money and if no one will give it he will probably advise a 1 year deal an re enter the market the following year.

 

Interesting, but it seems a little risky to bank on guys like Dunn, Crawford and Werth being available after 2010. And I take Bay over all of them.

[Mr Crunchy]

I tend to prefer a known commodity who can stand the heat in Boston vs a guy who plays in AAAA ball and hasnt had to deal with the bright lights of broadway and the fans sitting on his face like the do here in Boston....This is all speculation of course and we do have a couple weeks before the deadline.

I like things as they are today and my only concern is Halladay ending up in the Bronx but that seems rather unlikely...Good night kids, play nice with the Ny crew, they are rather sensitive these days.

[BSN07]

Interesting' date=' but it seems a little risky to bank on guys like Dunn, Crawford and Werth being available after 2010. And I take Bay over all of them.[/quote']

 

If the Red Sox could find away to add a little more power to one of there positions I'd take Crawford over Bay. He won't cost as much because he isn't a power guy. I'd say his deal would be similar to Juan Pierre's(just off the top of my head). The defense in the OF would be disgusting, and having Crawford and Jacoby on the base paths would drive pitchers nuts.

[BSN07]

I tend to prefer a known commodity who can stand the heat in Boston vs a guy who plays in AAAA ball and hasnt had to deal with the bright lights of broadway and the fans sitting on his face like the do here in Boston....This is all speculation of course and we do have a couple weeks before the deadline.

I like things as they are today and my only concern is Halladay ending up in the Bronx but that seems rather unlikely...Good night kids, play nice with the Ny crew, they are rather sensitive these days.

 

Halladay isn't going to either. I usually get all amped over these kind of talks(Santanna, Tex, Hanley), but I have learned my lesson. The Sox are not going to move there premier prospects. They have shown an unwillingness to do so at every turn. If they weren't doing it for Santanna, there not doing it for Halladay.

 

Listen if he ends up in either, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. But I honestly I don't see either selling the farm for him. If he is dealt I think it will be to the NL. Either Philly, St. Louis, Colorado, SF, LA. If he goes to an AL team it might be either Detroit or LAA.

[Dojji]

Does Josh Reddick putting up excellent numbers in AA affect the discussion at all, or no? Drew's going to need to move to LF soon to cut down on wear and tear so we might actually wind up looking for an RF and not a LF in the offseason if we lose on Bay

 

Drew in left, Ellsbury in center and Reddick in right would be one heck of a defensive outifeld.