Sox still pursuing Tek

[mtbykr]

Shill was on WEEI, and talked at length about Tek and what he really means to the staff....thought it was interesting:

 

Listen Online:

http://audio.weei.com/m/audio/21787710/curt_schilling_s_first_segment.htm?pageid=968

 

Direct Download:

http://media.weei.podzinger.com/archive/TheBigShow/2009-01-22_Curt_Schillings_First_Segment.mp3

[TheKilo]

I agree, he is a Shill....what else do you expect the guy to say about Jason Varitek?

[Dojji]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5506&position=C

Bill James' prediction for George Kottaras

 

80 games

54 for 223 (.242 avg) 15 Doubles, 9 HRs, 32 RBIs, 31 Runs, 31 Walks, 58 Ks

 

 

 

I'd sign up for that. Thats roughly a .335/.396/.731 out of basically a backup catcher and it's within spitting distance of .340/.410/.750, which is pretty much Tek's line from 2007.

 

Also if you can project that from a guy in his rookie year... not bad at all.

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1578&position=C

Josh Bard's. Considering PETCO Park was a factor when he layed this out, good projection to see

 

84 games

82 for 306 (.268 avg) 20 Doubles, 6 HRs, 39 RBIs, 30 Runs, 32 Walks, 42 Ks

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=217&position=C

Here is what he has for Varitek

 

122 games

94 for 395 (.238 avg) 20 Doubles, Triple, 13 HRs, 52 RBIs, 45 Runs, 51 Walks, 113 Ks

[TheKilo]

I question Varitek's projections because I think it gives too much credit to his flukish 2007.

[Dojji]

FWIW: Brown is projected to a .255/.326/.410 line

[diony]

FWIW: Brown is projected to a .255/.326/.410 line

 

Projections based on Milb numbers, sweet.

[Cocos Disciples]

I question Varitek's projections because I think it gives too much credit to his flukish 2007.

 

You know you suck when a .788 OPS is a positive fluke season

[a700hitter]

Fair point. What about Varitek's 2008 makes you so convinced that Bard/Kottaras/Brown can't replicate it' date=' given the advances in technology for scouting and pitch calling?[/quote']I don't think tek's 2008 is a good indicator of how he will do in 2009. He had a bad viral infection that kept him out for a full week on two separate occasions. He tried to bull his way through the thing, but his performance suffered terribly. He shouldn't have much trouble topping his 2008 performance if healthy

 

The point is they offered him A RAISE coming off his terrible 2008 and he declined it, so why should they offer the same potential salary if there isn't even a market for his services? Doesn't make sense at all - it's simple supply and demand. The Sox don't NEED a catcher right now and there is no demand for Varitek's services. WHy should the Sox outbid themselves for a guy coming off the season he had?

 

Take the Varitek blinders off and you'll see why my argument makes perfect sense.

Your argument makes no sense in the context of our discussion. It went like this. You said the current offer was a genius offer. I said that it is only a genius offer if he accepts it. I don't know how anyone could dispute that. If he doesn't sign, not making any offer would be just as "genius" as the current offer. You asked me what I would offer him. I replied that I would keep the guarantee at $5 million but I would add incentives that would allow him to get to $10 million. If he hits the incentives, it means that he had a good year. That would be good news for the team. Again, I don't see how that point could be disputed. Here's where your logic went off the mark. You reponded to my proposed offer by saying "why would they offer him that contract when he already turned down $10 million guaranteed." The logical link is lost here. To boil it down. You like the current offer. I think he will reject it. I proposed an incentive contract. You say that he already turned down $10 million guaranteed. You are confident that he will sign for the current offer, but you scoff at my proposal, because he already rejected an offer for more? You think that is an effective response? Are you saying that an incentive laden contract with the same guarantee is too rich? If that is what you are saying, you didn't say it very clearly at all. If my proposal is too rich, then we can agree to disagree. I don't think he takes the current offer, and if he doesn't, there is no genius to the current offer. I think they need Tek in 2009, because the alternatives are not good ones. I am no big fan of Varitek's. I think that he should be PH for in almost every pressure situation from the 7th inning on. I just don't like Kottaras and Bard as the alternative. I think an incentive deal is the way to go. If he falls on his face, only $5 million is guaranteed. If he rebounds (a good thing), he makes more, but wouldn't he deserve more if he rebounds?

[TheKilo]

I don't think tek's 2008 is a good indicator of how he will do in 2009. He had a bad viral infection that kept him out for a full week on two separate occasions. He tried to bull his way through the thing' date=' but his performance suffered terribly. He shouldn't have much trouble topping his 2008 performance if healthy[/quote']

 

Setting the bar pretty low, aren't we? All I know is the track record for catchers over 35 is not good, and it's pretty clear to me that 2007 was his bounce back year, although his second half that year was atrocious.

 

He is not a viable option offensively anymore and he can't throw runners out. He's living off reputation and since that reputation got him that ridiculous contract after 2004 anyway I'd prefer to not make the same mistake.

 

 

Your argument makes no sense in the context of our discussion. It went like this. You said the current offer was a genius offer. I said that it is only a genius offer if he accepts it. I don't know how anyone could dispute that. If he doesn't sign, not making any offer would be just as "genius" as the current offer.

 

Obviously. But unlike you and 95% of RSN, I am very comfortable going in to 2009 without Jason Varitek on this team.

 

You asked me what I would offer him. I replied that I would keep the guarantee at $5 million but I would add incentives that would allow him to get to $10 million. If he hits the incentives, it means that he had a good year. That would be good news for the team. Again, I don't see how that point could be disputed.

 

Here's the thing I don't understand. The Red Sox were prepared to offer Jason Varitek $10+ million guaranteed for this upcoming season. Varitek, through Boras or himself, felt that the market for his services would allow him to get a multi year deal at a comparable salary to what he had in 2008. He badly misjudged the market, discovering that there were no suitors for his services.

 

So, in essence, Varitek told the Sox to go screw, messed up, and he should then be offered a contract that would allow him to reach 2008 level salary? Coming off the joke of a 2008 and this offseason so far, I see absolutely no reason why the Sox need to offer him $10 million, guaranteed or not.

 

In my opinion, even offering him $5 million and a guaranteed second year is an overpay, but it's clear the Sox will overpay for Varitek as long as it is on their terms.

 

Here's where your logic went off the mark. You reponded to my proposed offer by saying "why would they offer him that contract when he already turned down $10 million guaranteed." The logical link is lost here.

 

The market changed 100%. When they offered him arb, it was believed there would be a market for Varitek. There isn't one. Why do they need to bid against themselves for his services?

 

To boil it down. You like the current offer. I think he will reject it. I proposed an incentive contract. You say that he already turned down $10 million guaranteed. You are confident that he will sign for the current offer, but you scoff at my proposal, because he already rejected an offer for more? You think that is an effective response? Are you saying that an incentive laden contract with the same guarantee is too rich? If that is what you are saying, you didn't say it very clearly at all.

 

That's exactly what I'm saying, and if you connected the dots on my prior posts you would have figured that out.

 

I ask again - why offer Varitek the same potential salary if there is no market for his services? The Sox don't have to bid against themselves, and they shouldn't.

 

If my proposal is too rich, then we can agree to disagree. I don't think he takes the current offer, and if he doesn't, there is no genius to the current offer.

 

The genius comes in that (a) the Sox save face and say they tried to sign their beloved captain and ( they didn't overpay for a soon to be 37 year old catcher with no discernable offensive skills.

 

I think they need Tek in 2009, because the alternatives are not good ones. I am no big fan of Varitek's. I think that he should be PH for in almost every pressure situation from the 7th inning on.

 

Varitek was PH for last year and he complained to the media.

 

I just don't like Kottaras and Bard as the alternative. I think an incentive deal is the way to go. If he falls on his face, only $5 million is guaranteed. If he rebounds (a good thing), he makes more, but wouldn't he deserve more if he rebounds?

 

Here's the thing - if he rebounds, the Sox pick up his option for $5 million and Varitek gets his coveted second year.

 

The genius is that the Sox are covered on all fronts with this contract offer.

[a700hitter]

The market changed 100%. When they offered him arb' date=' it was believed there would be a market for Varitek. There isn't one. Why do they need to bid against themselves for his services?[/quote']If he signs elsewhere for more $ then they would not have been bidding against themselves. Plus, I would not guarantee more than $5 million. The rest would have to be earned by performance.

That's exactly what I'm saying' date=' and if you connected the dots on my prior posts you would have figured that out.[/quote']I said what you meant, but it would have been easier if you just said it yourself. Your argument was structured poorly.

 

The genius comes in that (a) the Sox save face and say they tried to sign their beloved captain and ( they didn't overpay for a soon to be 37 year old catcher with no discernable offensive skills.

Do the Sox really need to save face if they don't sign him? They sell out every game.

[TheKilo]

If he signs elsewhere for more $ then they would not have been bidding against themselves. Plus' date=' I would not guarantee more than $5 million. The rest would have to be earned by performance.[/quote']

 

He can earn $5 million in year two with good performance.

 

 

Do the Sox really need to save face if they don't sign him? They sell out every game.

 

Yes, because it appears the good majority of RSN will have a collective heart attack if it becomes official that THE CAPTAIN isn't coming back.

[Cocos Disciples]

o captin mah captin!

[example1]

 

Yes, because it appears the good majority of RSN will have a collective heart attack if it becomes official that THE CAPTAIN isn't coming back.

 

No they won't. The people who do are the same ones who don't think this team can win without Teixeira and who said that Ellsbury or Crisp filling in for Damon was an obvious downgrade and would guarantee the Sox doom for years to come.

 

Tek would be as good an option as what is available if we aren't discussing moving Buchholz or Anderson or, possibly, Bowden. Two more years of Tek won't kill this team.

[das11209]

Obviously. But unlike you and 95% of RSN, I am very comfortable going in to 2009 without Jason Varitek on this team.

 

 

I guess I belong to the 5%. I do not want Tek under any price. My problem is with Tito - not with Tek, Even if Tek is willing to take a back-up/mentoring role - it will be hard for Tito to sit him(out of loyality of course) - and it will be deja vu all over again.

 

Tek - do me a favor - reject the deal. We get a catcher by trade or we go with Kottaras/Bard - I do not care. 2009 for me should be Tek free.

[SCM33]

Batting average is a dead stat' date=' Chief.[/quote']

 

 

In the majors, yeah your right.

 

Dead or not, if you cant hit 250 in the minors....I dont care how much you walk, you wont succeed in the majors. If you cannot hit 250 in the minors, how does that translate into a good OB% in the majors? It doenst........a poor batting average in the minors reflects the lack of one of the most important aspects of an offensive player, making solid consistent contact (the other being strike zone judgement, which he also sucks at, 110 strikeouts in under 400 AB's!!!!!!).

 

In the majors, I agree.....it is dead because of all of the other sabremetric measures that can now be utilized and there are so many other ways to judge how hard a batter hits a ball, the range factors of better defensive players taking away hits, OPS, BABIP, OB%, IsoP and all the others we all use when evaluating a player.

 

So he has a good OB%.....what does that really mean in the minors? Since his batting average is f***ing terrible for a AAA minor leaguer in his third season in the minors......I dont think it really means anything. I think it means he isnt aggressive enough, cannot recognize good pitches to hit, so he ends up not putting a ball in play hard enough to make the opposition make plays, or he walks. Not to mention he K'd 110 times in under 400 ABS.

 

A good OPS/OB% looks great in the majors, and guys Like Dunn (btw I dont like) can hit .240, walk a ton, strikeout a ton and hit a ton of homers to make up for it. Kottaras is capable of NOTHING that Dunn is.....and people still question Dunns real worth with all of the K's and low batting average.....with that being said, Kottaras cannot even do half of what Dunn can do at the minor league level, let alone the major league level.......just to put in perspective.

 

 

Its not like hes some prospect.......hes been floundering in the minors.......because he sucks

 

1. So he cant hit for average with almost 3 years of track record.

2. Doesnt hit for extra bases, other than homers. (18 doubles in almost 400 AB's).

3. Struck out 110 times in just under 400 ABs.

 

So....projections would be what?

Maybe a .200 hitter, couple homers here and there and approaching 200 strikeouts at the major league level.

Kotarras shouldnt even be considered a backup option. Hes hardly valuable as a starting catcher in AAA.

 

 

....BTW Bill James has given him a total value of -0.3.

[diony]

Kottaras won't be able to translate that 13.9 BB% to the majors. They throw strikes on this league.

[SCM33]

diony...thats kinda what Im trying to say haha....

 

 

You did it in one sentence.......(looks in the mirror, IDIOT)

[BSN07]

diony...thats kinda what Im trying to say haha....

 

 

You did it in one sentence.......(looks in the mirror, IDIOT)

 

[italstallianion]

diony...thats kinda what Im trying to say haha....

 

 

You did it in one sentence.......(looks in the mirror, IDIOT)

 

 

Don't put yourself down. Yours was more thorough.

[Dipre]

Kottaras won't be able to translate that 13.9 BB% to the majors. They throw strikes on this league.

 

diony...thats kinda what Im trying to say haha....

 

 

You did it in one sentence.......(looks in the mirror, IDIOT)

 

You two still miss the point.

 

The point being that even though a platoon of Kottaras/Brown/Bard would not be optimal, Varitek was so AWFUL last year that Kottaras alone should match his production.

 

Because as Kilo said, shooting for '08 Tek production IS shooting pretty low.

[SCM33]

I am not missing the point.....you are.

 

Varitek was awful in 08.

 

Im not shooting for his production, im shooting for at LEAST his production.

 

Kottaras will be worse.....which would be shooting for below Variteks 08 production.

 

Three s***** catchers dont make a good one. Id rather see Bard and a major league FA backup, any of them rather than Brown or Kottaras. Also, who wants to waste a roster spot on a third s***** catcher, when you could just carry 2 s***** catchers?

 

Id rather see Ivan Rodriguez as sad as that sounds.

[example1]

I am not missing the point.....you are.

 

Varitek was awful in 08.

 

Im not shooting for his production, im shooting for at LEAST his production.

 

Kottaras will be worse.....which would be shooting for below Variteks 08 production.

 

Three s***** catchers dont make a good one. Id rather see Bard and a major league FA backup, any of them rather than Brown or Kottaras. Also, who wants to waste a roster spot on a third s***** catcher, when you could just carry 2 s***** catchers?

 

Id rather see Ivan Rodriguez as sad as that sounds.

 

Wouldn't Kottaras have been playing in San Deigo by now if he had stayed with them? How about other teams? Wasn't he one of the Padres top prospects when the Sox landed him? http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20060905&content_id=1646668&vkey=pr_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

 

It says there he was ranked #2 in SD system before 2006, so wouldn't he be at least a "major league FA backup" caliber player by now?

 

I just think the grass always seems greener on the other side of the fence, and I think it is hard to say who is major league average (or slightly worse) based on who has mde MLB and who hasn't. A number of players on the Sox would likely have been up earlier if the Sox didn't have a good team. They do, so the players sat in the reserves.

 

 

 

Honestly folks, I think people are making too much out of the catcher position here. Tek had a 3.5 WARP1 last year. Ivan Rodriguez had a (combined) 3.4 WARP1 last year (3.3 in DET, 0.1 in NY). Ramon Hernandez (BAL)? 2.3. Pierzynski? 3.3.

 

I'll say it again: unless the Sox give up something significant, I think they (and all of you) need to be prepared for a 3-4 WARP catcher in that spot. It's not good, it's not horrid. It is what it is and they will make up for that deficiency with strength in other areas. Tek can assure this team of a 3+ WARP, and has the potential for more. I disagree with those who think he is assured to be worse. He may be in the same ballpark (no pun intended), but that could be slightly better than last year.

[SCM33]

I'll say it again: unless the Sox give up something significant, I think they (and all of you) need to be prepared for a 3-4 WARP catcher in that spot. It's not good, it's not horrid. It is what it is and they will make up for that deficiency with strength in other areas. Tek can assure this team of a 3+ WARP, and has the potential for more. I disagree with those who think he is assured to be worse. He may be in the same ballpark (no pun intended), but that could be slightly better than last year.

 

I agree, and I think it will be Varitek returning.

 

I think people look at Kottaras and see him as a fresh face, but the reality is......even if he were to put up the SAME numbers as Varitek, Variteks experience and knowledge of the pitching staff, and their comfort level give him the edge.

 

Unless Kottaras was a significant upgrade (which he is not), its not worth it. Just pony up and bring back Tek.

[Teddyballgame10]

Batting average is a dead stat' date=' Chief.[/quote']

 

What do you mean?

[SCM33]

Its not a stat which directly evaluates a players talent these days with all of the other sabremetric values which are now used at evaluating talent.

 

A player like Adam Dunn only hits in he .240s, but that is not his value. He is an OB% slugging freak.

 

A player like Mark Bellhorn, if measured by batting average, would have been on the bench in favor of Pokey Reese who had a couple fluke batting average seasons, but who was a poor offensive player in the totality of his statistics.

 

A player like Rey Sanchez hit .281 for the Sox a few years back, but contributed very little production. No power, didnt get on base besides a single. In 357 ABs, only had 16 extra base hits.

 

I still think it is valuable in evaluating a player over a period of time however. Over a three year period if a guy goes from .250 to .270 to .290 or if it goes in reverse I think it can show trends in their skills growing or declining in terms of bat speed and hand eye coordination especially if that makes a players SLG% or OB% go up or down.

[example1]

AVG doesn't measure the most important thing a hitter can do: not make outs.

 

OBP measures how often a hitter manages to "win" a battle with a pitcher by not making an out. For most, as a first glance, OBP is much more important than AVG.

 

AVG is a subset of OBP, saying how many times, out of those pitcher-hitter battles, the hitter managed to hit himself on rather than walk himself on. Both are victories but their cumulative value is what matters.

 

AVG fluctuates wildly and over the past few years I haven't looked at AVG until after looking at a number of other things. Often I won't even look at AVG, to be honest.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree that OBP is the best stat to follow. That being said, AVG in the context of OBP separates players as well. For example.

 

If your OBP was .380 but your AVG was .230 like Adam Dunn, a very large percentage of your OBP is a walk, which gets you to first base, but doesnt move runners unless there is already someone at 1st and wont drive in runs unless the bases are loaded.

 

If your OBP is .380 but your AVG was .300 then you have a lot more of your "win percentage" vs the pitcher in the hit category which moves runners further and has the opportunity to drive a runner home.

 

That being said, Adam Dunn is a freak of nature and of baseball stats. Mostly because when he hits the ball, it usually isnt a single and he walks so much that his OBP is sky high. I hope he goes for a one yr deal and waits for the market to ride its way back up. Cause I wouldnt mind him next yr after Godzilla or Damon or Nady or 2 or 3 of the previous go their separate ways. Especially if the sox manage to resign Bay or Oakland deals off Holliday to a place that signs an extension

[diony]

Wouldn't Kottaras have been playing in San Deigo by now if he had stayed with them? How about other teams? Wasn't he one of the Padres top prospects when the Sox landed him? http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20060905&content_id=1646668&vkey=pr_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

 

It says there he was ranked #2 in SD system before 2006, so wouldn't he be at least a "major league FA backup" caliber player by now?

 

That's not a valid point. SD's farm system wasn't so impressive back then. Plus prospects not always pan out, they call them a bust. He's not even among the top 15 catching prospects in baseball right now. He can't be a backup because of his lack of defense. I wouldn't want to see that young pitching staff on the hands of a catcher with no experience.

 

Brown looks like a better backup to me.

[Dojji]

That's not a valid point. SD's farm system wasn't so impressive back then. Plus prospects not always pan out, they call them a bust. He's not even among the top 15 catching prospects in baseball right now. He can't be a backup because of his lack of defense. I wouldn't want to see that young pitching staff on the hands of a catcher with no experience.

 

Brown looks like a better backup to me.

 

As already discussed, his "lack of defense" is an average to below average throwing arm. As a receiver and gamecaller Kottaras has actually been winning kudos.

As to players with low AAA batting averages...

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/N/Mike-Napoli.shtml

 

2005 AA .237/.370/.508/.880.

 

Napoli is now one of the better power hitting catchers in the American League.

 

I want to make this clear. I am not saying Kottaras is Napoli. Napoli has much more raw power than Kottaras. However, a low AVG in the minors is NOT a bar to effective big league performance as long as a player's game translates reasonably well.