Johan Santana

[yankeessuck013]

There have been reports on MLB Radio on XM that the Twins are now leaning towards holding out until the winter meetings to make the deal

 

cant say I disagree w/ that

 

There in or should be in no rush to trade him especially now w/ rumors floating that the Angels may abandoned there M.Caberea pursuit and focus in on on Santana

 

From my understanding they have been offered some good packages of prospects but most of them are based on Quanity and the Twins are more interested in Quality. As in 2 major league ready prospects w/ all star potential w/in a year or two and that is where most of the deals are falling apart

 

Another thing that might also be holding things up is Santana wants 7 years for 170 and by the sounds of it is not willing to budge much on that number. W/ the innings he has on his arm already and the way he finished last year that may seem like a hard number to take. But w/ his full NTC he can bassically write his own check.

 

from the NY Times:

 

The Red Sox have apparently offered pitcher Jon Lester, center fielder Coco Crisp, the minor league shortstop Jed Lowrie and another minor league pitcher. The Twins have been insistent in trying to snare center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, a player Boston is unwilling to move. The Twins have also told teams they do not want to add much in salary, so the $10.5 million Crisp will earn for the next two seasons is unappealing

 

If the deal gets done w/ Crisp the Red Sox will have to end up eating about 75% of whats left on his deal

[yankeessuck013]

nothing that we didn't already know...

 

UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 10:30pm: The Yankees' offer stands at Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and maybe Jose Tabata. Phil Hughes is a big upgrade over Kennedy, and the Twins are insisting on him. Meanwhile the Red Sox are still pushing Coco Crisp while the Twins are holding out for Jacoby Ellsbury. If one of the teams cracks on Hughes or Ellsbury this thing might get done.

[Thumper]

nothing that we didn't already know...

 

UPDATE, 11-29-07 at 10:30pm: The Yankees' offer stands at Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and maybe Jose Tabata. Phil Hughes is a big upgrade over Kennedy, and the Twins are insisting on him. Meanwhile the Red Sox are still pushing Coco Crisp while the Twins are holding out for Jacoby Ellsbury. If one of the teams cracks on Hughes or Ellsbury this thing might get done.

 

If Theo wants to save money, he'll hash out Ellsbury. But if he wants better defensive, and sound offensive numbers during the season, he'll part ways with Coco. I'm hoping for the latter.

[See Red]

If a deal doesn't get done because the Red Sox are unwilling to part ways with Jacoby Ellsbury then I think they're making a huge mistake.

[TheKilo]

You have to believe the Yankees seem hesitant as of now to include Hughes' date=' though I'm not neccesarily sure that even that offer would top the Sox current supposed one of Lester, Lowrie, Crisp, and Bowden/Masterson. I just personally do not want Johan in pinstripes, Joba/Hughes or not. Santana is basically all you could hope for out of Joba or Phranchise, but he is much more proven and would improve the Yankees weakness and overall team immensely.[/quote']

 

I disagree. Including Hughes in the deal shifts the scales towards the Yanks.

[TheKilo]

If a deal doesn't get done because the Red Sox are unwilling to part ways with Jacoby Ellsbury then I think they're making a huge mistake.

 

I knew I could count on you to back me up.

[a700hitter]

IMO the Twins will trade Santana only if they can rape someone's farm system. They will want either Ellsbury or Bucholz in a package with lester and others at the very least. I don't think they settle for one of the Yankees three pitching prospects. They will not settle for less than 2 of them. If the Yanks and Sox are not willing to strip their farm system, the Twins will make another big push at signing Santana or they will keep him for the year and try to sign him as a FA.

[TheKilo]

IMO the Twins will trade Santana only if they can rape someone's farm system. They will want either Ellsbury or Bucholz in a package with lester and others at the very least. I don't think they settle for one of the Yankees three pitching prospects. They will not settle for less than 2 of them. If the Yanks and Sox are not willing to strip their farm system' date=' the Twins will make another big push at signing Santana or they will keep him for the year and try to sign him as a FA.[/quote']

 

See, I disagree with you. the fact that Santana has a no trade clause tells me he will only sign to a team that will extend him. That pretty much eliminates everyone but the Sox and Yanks. Therefore, it's only about beating the Yanks offer, or at the very least driving their offer up to include Joba or Hughes.

 

If the Yanks don't want to give up either of those I think the Sox have the upper hand.

[See Red]

I knew I could count on you to back me up.

 

Us logical thinkers have to stick together, right?

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Ellsbury a great deal more than I like Crisp and think he'll be a much better player for us but it's Johan f***ing Santana.

 

And if losing Ellsbury is what it takes for Johan to play in Boston next year as opposed to New York... it has to be done.

[example1]

Us logical thinkers have to stick together, right?

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Ellsbury a great deal more than I like Crisp and think he'll be a much better player for us but it's Johan f***ing Santana.

 

And if losing Ellsbury is what it takes for Johan to play in Boston next year as opposed to New York... it has to be done.

 

It's not as logical as you think though.

 

Yeah, Ellsbury isn't worth Santana, but Ellsbury's next 6 years + Lester's next 5 years + Masterson's next 6 years + Lowrie's next 6 years is going to have value. The only reason the Twins would pull the trigger is if they thought those guys were close to impact ready. We all know they're close to impact ready.

 

I think that there is sufficient wiggle-room between Crisp and Ellsbury that Crisp + prospect can be equal to Ellsbury. The Sox don't have to deal Ellsbury, he just represents one form of talent that, fortunately, the Sox can replicate in a similar player but with whom they are less enamored. Crisp, Lester, Masterson and Lowrie is a nice collection of talent for one man, especially if the sox pay for Crisp's salary this year or something (while Santana is still relatively cheap).

 

Ellsbury won't be a deal breaker, because the Sox aren't going to deal him and the Twins know that. They're still talking. Coco has more pull than many are giving him credit for, though Ellsbury will be the much better player throughout his career.

[See Red]

It's not as logical as you think though.

 

Yeah, Ellsbury isn't worth Santana, but Ellsbury's next 6 years + Lester's next 5 years + Masterson's next 6 years + Lowrie's next 6 years is going to have value. The only reason the Twins would pull the trigger is if they thought those guys were close to impact ready. We all know they're close to impact ready.

 

I think that there is sufficient wiggle-room between Crisp and Ellsbury that Crisp + prospect can be equal to Ellsbury. The Sox don't have to deal Ellsbury, he just represents one form of talent that, fortunately, the Sox can replicate in a similar player but with whom they are less enamored. Crisp, Lester, Masterson and Lowrie is a nice collection of talent for one man, especially if the sox pay for Crisp's salary this year or something (while Santana is still relatively cheap).

 

Ellsbury won't be a deal breaker, because the Sox aren't going to deal him and the Twins know that. They're still talking. Coco has more pull than many are giving him credit for, though Ellsbury will be the much better player throughout his career.

 

Or so we hope.

 

Santana's going to be great for us, or great for the Yankees. I see it going one of those two ways. And if the difference between the two is moving Ellsbury, then you have to move Ellsbury.

 

I'd much rather do it without moving Ellsbury... but that's not the situation we're discussing here.

[Behind the Bag]

I love Jacoby, but we'd still have Coco, who is stellar in CF, if not at the plate. He could come around there, though. Santana is only 28. We'd have Beckett, Santana, Matsuzaka and Bucholz set in stone for the next 6 years, more or less. Ellsbury was very impressive during his short spell with the big club. There is no prolonged peroid of sustained major league stats that he's put up, whereas Santana is a proven stud, maybe the best pitcher in the game. You gotta do the deal. Pitching: Santana. Defense: Coco. Pitching and Defense equal..........

[riverside sluggers]

The New York Times reports that the Yankees are sticking to an offer of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and at least one minor leaguer for Johan Santana.

 

The Times believes Jose Tabata could be the minor leaguer. The Twins are holding out for Phil Hughes over Kennedy. Unless the Yankees put Robinson Cano in the deal, it's hard to see them getting Santana without trading Hughes. Joba Chamberlain is completely off limits.

 

The Yankees arent willing to give up Hughes?

 

Yankees offer

Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, prospect (That prospect is believed to be Jose Tabata)

 

Red Sox offer

Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden/Justin Masterson

 

Hmmm

[HeadOfSoxNation]

In my opinion...if you can get a deal done for Santana that doesn't include Buchholz or Ellsbury, you pull the trigger as fast as is humanly possible. Our rotation would be unfair. Downright unfair.

 

That said...I disagree with See Red and Kilo...I think the Sox should hold onto Jacoby. Don't get me wrong, I love Santana and think he'll be fantastic here, but let's not forget that he'll be 29 at the season's outset, not 24. Let's not forget that he's had well-documented arm injuries. Let's not forget that he has a LOT of innings logged on that arm. 29 years old, arm trouble, lotttt of work...it's not as sure of a thing as it appears.

 

It's only a no-brainer if you can get it done without Ellsbury or Buchholz to me.

[TheKilo]

In my opinion...if you can get a deal done for Santana that doesn't include Buchholz or Ellsbury, you pull the trigger as fast as is humanly possible. Our rotation would be unfair. Downright unfair.

 

That said...I disagree with See Red and Kilo...I think the Sox should hold onto Jacoby. Don't get me wrong, I love Santana and think he'll be fantastic here, but let's not forget that he'll be 29 at the season's outset, not 24. Let's not forget that he's had well-documented arm injuries. Let's not forget that he has a LOT of innings logged on that arm. 29 years old, arm trouble, lotttt of work...it's not as sure of a thing as it appears.

 

It's only a no-brainer if you can get it done without Ellsbury or Buchholz to me.

 

What?

 

[table]Year|Innings Pitched

2003|158.1

2004|228

2005|231.2

2006|233.2

2007|219[/table]

 

What well documented arm injuries do you speak of that has had him pitch 200+ innings since 2004?

[TheKilo]

It's not as logical as you think though.

 

Yeah, Ellsbury isn't worth Santana, but Ellsbury's next 6 years + Lester's next 5 years + Masterson's next 6 years + Lowrie's next 6 years is going to have value. The only reason the Twins would pull the trigger is if they thought those guys were close to impact ready. We all know they're close to impact ready.

 

Lowrie is blocked by Lugo.

Masterson is a damn good pitching prospect, but he's still in AA.

Lester would be replaced by the best pitcher in the game.

 

I think that there is sufficient wiggle-room between Crisp and Ellsbury that Crisp + prospect can be equal to Ellsbury. The Sox don't have to deal Ellsbury, he just represents one form of talent that, fortunately, the Sox can replicate in a similar player but with whom they are less enamored.

 

What does this mean exactly? Were the Sox not enamored with Crisp when they traded for him or signed him to a multi-year deal?

 

Crisp, Lester, Masterson and Lowrie is a nice collection of talent for one man, especially if the sox pay for Crisp's salary this year or something (while Santana is still relatively cheap).

 

I agree, only if the Yankees don't include Hughes.

 

Ellsbury won't be a deal breaker, because the Sox aren't going to deal him and the Twins know that. They're still talking. Coco has more pull than many are giving him credit for, though Ellsbury will be the much better player throughout his career.

 

Opinions are like *******s.

 

You think Ellsbury is some uber-prospect. Granted, I like the guy and think he will be a successful major league player, but if a deal for Santana comes down to Ellsbury or Crisp, I personally can't see why dealing Ellsbury is of any detriment to the team.

 

If you can get it done without Ellsbury, great. What happens if the Yanks offer Hughes instead of Kennedy? Do you still deem Ellsbury untouchable at that point?

 

You said it yourself...Coco has more pull than many give him credit for...

[Thumper]

What?

 

[table]Year|Innings Pitched

2003|158.1

2004|228

2005|231.2

2006|233.2

2007|219[/table]

 

What well documented arm injuries do you speak of that has had him pitch 200+ innings since 2004?

 

That and over 200Ks for the past 4 years, I don't see anything to hint arm issues. Besides, 30 really isn't THAT old. It's not young, it's not prime, but it doesn't mean he's gonna wear and tear. Now I'm sure 5-6 years down the line he'll show signs of distress, but by then I'm quite sure Buchholz (if not traded) would be a well established pitcher, along with other new guys in the rotation.

[example1]

Or so we hope.

 

Santana's going to be great for us, or great for the Yankees. I see it going one of those two ways. And if the difference between the two is moving Ellsbury, then you have to move Ellsbury.

 

I'd much rather do it without moving Ellsbury... but that's not the situation we're discussing here.

 

Or so we hope with Santana too. We're not dealing from a position of weakness from pitching or from CF. We have adequate amounts of MLB ready talent so there is no point in throwing it out there so we are absolutely committed to paying Santana 20 million dollars for 6 years. I think the chances of Ellsbury having game winning talent over the next 6 years are as good or better than Santana going that entire period as a 200+ IP, 2.90 ERA pitcher--which is roughly what he would need to be to justify 20m.

 

If by year 3 we're paying Santana 20 million dollars and he's putting up the same numbers as a current "good but not great pitcher", and we've dealt Jon Lester and Justin Masterson then what? Don't let his numbers blind. There are other good pitchers out there. The Red Sox currently have 3 of the best arms in baseball lined up and ready to go in Beckett, Dice-K and in my opinion, Buchholz. Schilling should be a solid contributer, as should Wake. We know what we're going to get from both if healthy. I think Lester has shown what he's capable of and he's only 23 himself.

 

Adding Santana would be great, the cream on the peaches. But the starting rotation, as is, is good enough to win a world series. Even against the Yankees with Santana (minus presumably Hughes and/or Kennedy plus really good younger players). We know this is a good Sox team. Ellsbury at the top of this lineup is also cream on the peaches. He and Pedroia will be a terror for the next 3-5 years and it should be fun to watch.

 

They can make a Crisp trade work, they just have to throw in something else to make it better. s***, take your pick as far as I'm concerned. What the hell will we need from the minor leagues if we get santana without dealing Buchholz or Ellsbury?

 

I'm not unrealistic about Ellsbury. I think it is reasonable to expect that he'll be about as productive at the plate as Pedroia, with added speed and slightly less plate control. He will be as good in the field as Pedroia is too. For years and years and years and years at MLB minimum.

 

Coco is a great fielder but is it really possible to pull himself off the edge of the cliff of unproductivity with another tremendous fielding season? Seems like a lot to bank on when you have his obvious replacement standing in CF.

 

They will keep their eyes on the prize, which is a deal without losing either of them, IMO.

[Thumper]

I'm still pulling for the Sox to sign this guy.

 

[youtube=Pizza Prospect]pJpZ9TFmRS0

[example1]

What does this mean exactly? Were the Sox not enamored with Crisp when they traded for him or signed him to a multi-year deal?

 

Are you serious? Enamored? No, they made a logical deal to fill a hole in CF after Damon left. He was a good-enough replacement, but they certainly weren't enamored with him except for the fact that he would be cheap and moderately productive. He has been both. But he is not a potential superstar.

 

I agree, only if the Yankees don't include Hughes.

 

If the Yankees are going to throw Hughes in there then give them Santana. Hughes is half a tick behind Buchholz in my opinion, and only because he had an injury last year. When he was composed and throwing well at the beginning of the year he was destroying people. He was 21 this year for crying out loud.

 

Opinions are like *******s.

 

People who assume that others are naively judging the potential of a player based on 100 ABs instead of a career's worth of statistics and scouting reports

 

You think Ellsbury is some uber-prospect. Granted, I like the guy and think he will be a successful major league player, but if a deal for Santana comes down to Ellsbury or Crisp, I personally can't see why dealing Ellsbury is of any detriment to the team.

 

Just out of curiosity would you say the same of a young Kenny Lofton or Grady Sizemore? How do you judge the difference between those guys.

 

If you can get it done without Ellsbury, great. What happens if the Yanks offer Hughes instead of Kennedy? Do you still deem Ellsbury untouchable at that point?

 

If it is Hughes for Santana straight up then I consider doing Ellsbury for Santana straight up, or with something small thrown in. I'm not sure I'd do it though. I think Hughes for Santana, over 6 years, will be statistically similar but financially very different pitchers. Same reason I wouldn't recommend dealing Buchholz.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

He had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow prior to 2003 and something with his legs (I don't remember what) that has limited his action periodically. I'm not saying they're huge huge huge concerns...I'm just saying that if I'm going to mortgage the farm for a guy, I want him to have the cleanest bill of health possible. Like I said, I'm fully in favor of getting him if we don't have to give up Buchholz or Ellsbury...is that quite mortgaging? No. But it's at LEAST meeting with the bank...

[BSN07]

Kilo, I understand and for the most part agree with you.

 

Except for Ellsbury. Crisp ceiling is not much more then he is now, maybe a .280 hitter with great CF D. Ellsbury Ceiling has been compared to Beltran and Sizemore...Not saying he will ever reach that but he is a big time prospect. If he wasn't then Minny would not be holding out for him. Minny has been known for going after players with big upsides and players who usually end up being big time players. If Minny wants him, I think he has a fair shot at being a big time CF/

[ORS]

Easy now, I think some crack slipped into the pipe at the hash bar. I like Ellsbury, but he won't hit for the kind of power Sizemore or Beltran do. Those are the types of guys you draw a line on when talking about CFs. I'll take the best pitcher in baseball, even if it's only for 3-4 out of 6 years, for a guy who's ceiling is just below the elite (top 5) CFs in the game. Especially when there is a capable guy on the payroll to bridge the gap to the guys in the lower minors (Kalish and Place) whose tools are closer to those you mentioned.

[rician blast]

Let's not all forget that the Red Sox FO ALREADY knows what lengths they're willing to go to in order to acquire and extend Santana. That being said, even if the negotiations exceed...or maybe have already exceeded...the Sox comfort zone, they'll still remain in the negotiations in order to drive up the price of Santana.

 

Could this be a bluff on the Sox part in an effort to get the Yankees to "overpay" (I use that term from the perspective of any team other than the Yankees) either in contract extension length/$ or in value of players given up? Edit: Ultimately, it may not be Santana the Sox are after...could be Haren.

[Mr Crunchy]

can you picture ny trying to win a 4 game series while seeing beckett and santana 2xs each?

i think as much as we want santana here

its just as important that he dont end up in the bronx.

 

we are working in our young guys at a good pace

ny is actually in dire need of their young arms to show up and pitch 200 innings this year just to be competetive....if we dont get this guy i pray to christ the yanks dont

[jacksonianmarch]

I think I predicted this a week ago when the Yankees were in "preliminary discussions" for Santana. The Sox would get into it, they would be in the lead, then another team, then us, then another team and around and around it will go. The Winter Meetings is a place where many a GM has made their hay or dug their own grave. We'll see who blinks.

[jacksonianmarch]

can you picture ny trying to win a 4 game series while seeing beckett and santana 2xs each?

i think as much as we want santana here

its just as important that he dont end up in the bronx.

 

we are working in our young guys at a good pace

ny is actually in dire need of their young arms to show up and pitch 200 innings this year just to be competetive....if we dont get this guy i pray to christ the yanks dont

 

I think just as important for the yankees is that they dont gut their future. Nowadays, guys get signed before they hit the FA market, so buying all the high priced FAs is not a solid MO for building a great team. Also, with Pettitte essentially saying that he is leaning towards retiring, we are down to 1 reliable pitcher (Wang), 1 over the hill pitcher (Mussina), and 3 top notch kids. If we deal away 2 of them, we have an ace in Santana, a 2 in Wang, a sub 5 in Moose and one of the kids left. Who fills the 5 hole? Who takes over when Moose falls apart? These are problems we will be running into.

[BSN07]

Gammons favors the Yankees in the Santana derby, because he feels that Hank Steinbrenner could overrule Brian Cashman and include Phil Hughes in the deal. Some feel that the Red Sox are just trying to pump up the price and would then turn to the A's to get Dan Haren. Getting Haren instead of Santana may have the added benefit of not pissing off Josh Beckett about his salary.

 

 

Id be ok with that, make NYY over pay for Santana prospect and $ wise, then go to oakland and get the cheaper Haren and avoid having to redo Becketts deal. Id actually rather have this deal. But it also depends on what it would take to get Haren, if it was still Crisp,Bowden, Lester, Masterson or something similar would be sweet.

[Mr Crunchy]

this is nys dilemma mj

they dont want the sox to have 2 aces who have hit their prime and are still iunder 30 coming at them for the next 5 years

and they dont want to lose the talented youth that they are counting on either.

 

its nice being on top with pitching prospects as well as young studs who are already delivering.

[jacksonianmarch]

Haren may actually cost more since he is cost controlled through 2010. The A's are looking to rebuild, but they have the time to wait on dealing Blanton and Haren.