Johan Santana

[jacksonianmarch]

picks and farm be-damned when you have a young foundation like the sox. If you can throw Santana-Beckett-DiceK at teams for the next 5-6 yrs, it wont really matter what other rookies you may have coming through the pipe.

 

And for those who dont know this, Santana put up a much better season than Beckett in terms of stats and peripherals and it was statistically one of Santana's worst seasons. he would be your ace.

[Jayhawk Bill]

And for those who dont know this' date=' Santana put up a much better season than Beckett in terms of stats and peripherals and it was statistically one of Santana's worst seasons. he would be your ace.[/quote']

 

I didn't know that.

[YAZMAN]

I didn't know that.

 

LOL, that's a sig line if I ever saw one!

[jacksonianmarch]

Beckett- 20-7 3.27ERA 8.48H/9IP, 1.7BB/9IP, 8.70K/9IP, 1.14WHIP

 

Santana- 15-13 3.33ERA 7.52H/9IP 2.14BB/9IP 9.66K/9IP 1.07WHIP

 

and if you consider that Santana tanked once the twins fell out of the race, then you have a guy who was even better.

[Taliesin]

Let’s see if I can explain this. Probably not. Prior to 04’ I would have been a proponent of a Boys from Brazil cloning campaign to get us a championship. Replete w/ James Mason as the protagonist. Except that was what I thought. 03’ almost did me in. 86’ I was seeing therapists and questioning the universe for the abject hatred it obviously had on my soul. The ridicule, the chuckling. The standing up and declaring yourself a Red Sox fan just to cleanse yourself of the itch, the nagging ache that was just part of every day. Like Winter in New England…those surprised by the ice and the snow…a shock to the system, unpredictable and entirely expected. Came the Spring and hope….a bookend to the slow methodical end or the quick and painful downward slope of the fall.

 

So…I would sell my soul right? For an end to that Faustian dream. To win…at all costs. Year after year. Faust found that wasn’t necessarily the case. I’d rather have watched Fred Lynn and the Rooster and Fisk play until they retired. I want to see this kid Jacoby play for the next 10 years or so. I think he’ll be dynamite. I’d like to see the young pitchers develop or crash and burn. I’m old school and I think this game needs a return to that. Enough w/ the needles and the damage done. Big money and I get that it is a beeznus, but they don’t understand history. You can have both. Or they are doomed to repeat it.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Beckett- 20-7 3.27ERA 8.48H/9IP, 1.7BB/9IP, 8.70K/9IP, 1.14WHIP

 

Santana- 15-13 3.33ERA 7.52H/9IP 2.14BB/9IP 9.66K/9IP 1.07WHIP

 

and if you consider that Santana tanked once the twins fell out of the race, then you have a guy who was even better.

 

Looks pretty damn close to me.

 

But I guess Santana was MUCH better.

[Mr Crunchy]

as if he would take anyone not named beckett if he needed 1 game

becks established himself as the man this october

[example1]

Those caveats speak to my point. Nobody here would do solely on the merits of the players' date=' and those qualifiers won't apply for the Red Sox, so Ellsbury and Buchholz aren't "too much". Would I go that far? It would require some serious thought, but it's not "too much".[/quote']

 

The "too much" question aside, I think Maybin and Miller would get Santana pretty easily at this point, just like I think Ellsbury and Buchholz would too. In my opinion, both of those offers would EXCEED the value that Santana will have, as a one year pitcher who will want 20+m a season afterwards. The Sox have the money, but obviously that doesn't make the money easy to spend--especially with all the risk involved in any pitcher with lots of innings under his belt.

 

The amount a team is willing to overpay in talent is largely dependant on how badly the team needs the player(s) in question. The Sox do not NEED a top of the rotation starter. What they need is a pitcher who will, over the next 6 years, produce at a well-above average level and contribute as many wins as possible. Santana is the best in the game. Buchholz, as he stands now, is close to being able to offer that. Stuff wise, age/cost wise, he is set to produce it. Will he contribute as many wins as Santana? It's hard to tell, but my guess is that Santana will not go 80-0 and Buchholz will not go 0-80. They will be much closer than that. Throw in Ellsbury's production during that time and I'm saying it's "too much". Not blatently too much, but too much nonetheless.

[example1]

Beckett- 20-7 3.27ERA 8.48H/9IP, 1.7BB/9IP, 8.70K/9IP, 1.14WHIP

 

Santana- 15-13 3.33ERA 7.52H/9IP 2.14BB/9IP 9.66K/9IP 1.07WHIP

 

and if you consider that Santana tanked once the twins fell out of the race, then you have a guy who was even better.

 

How does that prove that his season was BETTER? The numbers were fine, because you're right, Santana's worst season lately was worse than Beckett's best, but to convince people that Santana is a better PITCHER than Beckett tanking when the team falls out of the race won't do it. If anything Beckett is a "gamer"; dude's ferocious.

 

Here's some interesting numbers:

 

[table] |Santana vs.| IP | ERA | K | BB | OBP | SLG |

|CLE | 39 | 4.38 | 43 | 9 | .288 | .463 |

|CHW| 29 | 3.41 | 37 | 7 | .246 | .393 |

|DET | 37 | 3.65 | 36 | 12 | .288 | .397 | [/table]

 

These are the teams he faced the most this year, and those numbers look a lot like Beckett's do, and are probably about what we would see if he had to face the Yankees four times and the Devil Rays and the Orioles and Jays. He's obviously not pedestrian, by any stretch, but my guess is that we would be about as happy with Santana as we have been with Beckett this season. He would have mostly good games, some VERY good games--with higher strikeouts than Beckett--and one or two pretty bad starts. Overall he would be a deadly-good pitcher to have on this team, but he wouldn't be far and away better than Beckett and he wouldn't be Pedro from 1999.

[carltonfiskga]

What do you expect on a statement from a skankee fan.

[das11209]

The "too much" question aside, I think Maybin and Miller would get Santana pretty easily at this point, just like I think Ellsbury and Buchholz would too. In my opinion, both of those offers would EXCEED the value that Santana will have, as a one year pitcher who will want 20+m a season afterwards. The Sox have the money, but obviously that doesn't make the money easy to spend--especially with all the risk involved in any pitcher with lots of innings under his belt.

 

The amount a team is willing to overpay in talent is largely dependant on how badly the team needs the player(s) in question. The Sox do not NEED a top of the rotation starter. What they need is a pitcher who will, over the next 6 years, produce at a well-above average level and contribute as many wins as possible. Santana is the best in the game. Buchholz, as he stands now, is close to being able to offer that. Stuff wise, age/cost wise, he is set to produce it. Will he contribute as many wins as Santana? It's hard to tell, but my guess is that Santana will not go 80-0 and Buchholz will not go 0-80. They will be much closer than that. Throw in Ellsbury's production during that time and I'm saying it's "too much". Not blatently too much, but too much nonetheless.

 

Agree with everything. That said - I don't want the Theo to tell the twins that he is not interested. That might give an opportunity to the Yankees to low-ball the twins to get Santana. So far - Theo has done a great job in this negotiation and made Hank look stupid. He just needs to continue whatever he is doing.

[BoSox21]

He's holding to the offer of Crisp, Lester, Masterson and Lowrie and keeping Ellsbury as his ace in the hole. If the Yankees up their offer, Theo will probably sub Crisp for Ellsbury

[example1]

He's holding to the offer of Crisp' date=' Lester, Masterson and Lowrie and keeping Ellsbury as his ace in the hole. If the Yankees up their offer, Theo will probably sub Crisp for Ellsbury[/quote']

 

If the Yankees up their offer he should just laugh and go home.

[das11209]

If the Yankees up their offer he should just laugh and go home.

 

My 2 cents.

Yankess giving up Hughes and Kennedy for Santana is a better outcome than Sox getting Santana for any advertised package.

[TedWilliams101]

The thought of the Skanees having Santana makes me cringe.

[TheKilo]

The thought of the Skanees having Santana makes me cringe.

 

Skinned Knees?

 

You willing to give up Ellsbury, after all the dick sucking you did of him in October?

[example1]

My 2 cents.

Yankess giving up Hughes and Kennedy for Santana is a better outcome than Sox getting Santana for any advertised package.

 

Any package the Yankees offer with Hughes in it is a weight off all of our backs, as he's a stud, and young.

 

But I think the Sox would have the best chance of winning in the short and long term with the deal involving Crisp and Lester and Masterson and Lowrie/4th player. That would give them the basis of a rotation for four years (say) with Beckett, Santana, Dice-K and Buchholz and a 5th. That four would be tremendous. Add a Schilling here, a Wakefield there and a little touch of Bowden or Free Agent, PLUS Ellsbury patrolling CF and you're looking at a potential dynasty.

[TedWilliams101]

No, I don't want to part with Ellsbury or Buccholz, but I also don't want to see Santana pitching for the Yankees.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hughes for Santana gives us the possibility of having a known ace for the next 5 yrs, while it potentially takes away an ace for us for a decade or more. Adding in Kennedy only makes it worse.

[das11209]

Jon Heyman SI

Christmas gift: Santana Claus?

The Johan Santana Sweepstakes are likely to come down to whether new Yankees boss Hank Steinbrenner is willing to overrule GM Brian Cashman again. Steinbrenner wants to go for Santana, Cashman doesn't (at least not at the cost of Phil Hughes).

 

Word is that Steinbrenner the Younger would like to back Cashman, especially after disregarding the GM on whether to hold firm at three years for Jorge Posada and no years for Alex Rodriguez after A-Rod opted out. However, some executives around the league are predicting that Steinbrenner will ignore Cashman's advice to keep Hughes and save the $23 million a year or so, and that the Yankees will eventually land Santana.

 

The package would be expected to include center fielder Melky Cabrera, pitching prospect Jeff Marquez and another prospect in addition to Hughes. The Red Sox and Mets remain in the bidding and can't be counted out. But the Twins appear to be waiting for someone to bend, and the short history suggests that Junior Steinbrenner is the most likely to do so.

 

[rician blast]

My gut says that Heyman could very well be correct here.

 

I think the Twins believe that the Yankees know that the Sox are in better shape going into 2008, primarily pitching wise, than the Yanks are, and that the Yanks ownership will find that unacceptable.

 

The Yankees have always reminded me of the scene in the first Indiana Jones movie where Indy is fighting a bunch of guys and this unbelievable swordsman comes outta nowhere wielding his sword and Indy realizes he's overmatched so he gets this grin on his face, pulls out a pistol and shoots the guy. The Sox are heading in that direction too, but haven't displayed the longevity of that approach that we see with the Yanks.

 

Cashman, IMO, would be willing to go into battle with "less bullets" than an opponent if it meant preserving the future health of the team...the Yanks owners, I believe, don't share that same restraint...but we'll see.

[BSN07]

My gut says that Heyman could very well be correct here.

 

I think the Twins believe that the Yankees know that the Sox are in better shape going into 2008, primarily pitching wise, than the Yanks are, and that the Yanks ownership will find that unacceptable.

 

The Yankees have always reminded me of the scene in the first Indiana Jones movie where Indy is fighting a bunch of guys and this unbelievable swordsman comes outta nowhere wielding his sword and Indy realizes he's overmatched so he gets this grin on his face, pulls out a pistol and shoots the guy. The Sox are heading in that direction too, but haven't displayed the longevity of that approach that we see with the Yanks.

 

Cashman, IMO, would be willing to go into battle with "less bullets" than an opponent if it meant preserving the future health of the team...the Yanks owners, I believe, don't share that same restraint...but we'll see.

 

Awesome recall! Makes a great point too:thumbsup:

[das11209]

Can someone tell Hank what a 'deadline' means in English language? From NewsDay.

Senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner said Wednesday that "there's still an outside chance" of the Yankees trading for Johan Santana.

 

"We'll see," Steinbrenner said. "We've got to do things based on what we think is best. I think we're comfortable staying where we are, and I certainly think we'd be comfortable getting Santana, too." Jon Heyman, of SI.com reported on Wednesday that the Santana trade could come down to Hank Steinbrenner overruling his GM Brian Cashman and sweetening the Yankees offer. The saga continues.

[Paradisecity]

At least he is saying "We" instead of "I" now.

 

Little Stein is going to run them into the ground.

[example1]

My gut says that Heyman could very well be correct here.

 

I think the Twins believe that the Yankees know that the Sox are in better shape going into 2008, primarily pitching wise, than the Yanks are, and that the Yanks ownership will find that unacceptable.

 

The Yankees have always reminded me of the scene in the first Indiana Jones movie where Indy is fighting a bunch of guys and this unbelievable swordsman comes outta nowhere wielding his sword and Indy realizes he's overmatched so he gets this grin on his face, pulls out a pistol and shoots the guy. The Sox are heading in that direction too, but haven't displayed the longevity of that approach that we see with the Yanks.

 

Cashman, IMO, would be willing to go into battle with "less bullets" than an opponent if it meant preserving the future health of the team...the Yanks owners, I believe, don't share that same restraint...but we'll see.

 

I am getting impatient. If it really is the case that the Twins are sitting around to see if the Yankees are going to raise their offer--essentially playing the Sox-Yanks rivalry against them--then the Sox should just say "you have till the end of the month, after that we're going to look elsewhere". Generally I'm against deadlines, but if thisi s a game of cat and mouse it is one the Sox don't need to play into. The prevailing feeling is that the Twins are in the drivers seat, as they have the player everyone wants. However, the truth is that the Twins stand to gain more from this deal than any other team. They can solidifiy potentially 2 positions out of 14 starting positions with a single move, for the next 6 years or so. It seems like they have the most to lose if the Sox pull out or reduce their offer and stand FIRMLY by a deadline.

 

Of course, I like it that Theo and Co are so patient, but I'm not as patient and I don't particularly love the idea of the Twins sitting around on a good offer waiting for our chief rivals to step in and make a better one.

[das11209]

Hope everbody had a great Christmas - back to Santana talk..

According to the New York Times, the Twins have lessened their demands for Johan Santana and are no longer asking for Ian Kennedy along with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera.

 

Instead, the newspaper reports that Minnesota is willing accept Jeffrey Marquez in place of Kennedy. Marquez isn't in Kennedy's class as a prospect, but he's still a solid young arm with good upside and if the Twins trade Santana to the Yankees they'd be doing so primarily in order to get their hands on Hughes.

[26 to 6]

That's somewhat of a disappointment. I really don't want to let go of Hughes at this point.

[Jayhawk Bill]

That's somewhat of a disappointment. I really don't want to let go of Hughes at this point.

 

As I've posted previously, I'd be delighted to see the Yankees trade away Hughes, Cabrera and change for Johan Santana.

 

So I guess that we kinda agree? :dunno:

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't hold my breath on this.

[BSN07]

This could be a ploy by the Twins to try and make the Sox throw in Ellsbury with Lester...

 

 

I don't think Theo will buckle to this... Let the Yanks send out Hughes and company and throw another 140M+ on there payroll.