Johan Santana

[cam780]

If Baseball Prospectus is correct, I would assume the Sox offer of Ellsbury, Masterson and I'd assume Lowrie would probably be better than Hughes,Cabrera and anonymous player x. Two major league ready position players and a pitching prospect that could contribute in 08.

[example1]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3138088

Sox will include Ellsbury or Lester, not both.

 

I'm surprised at the way these trade talks are progressing. Normally the teams don't publicly declare who is on and off limits and who will be the main chips. Or at least from what I remember...

 

You're right, usually the names aren't discussed, but somehow these are getting out. Probably because it is in the Red Sox best interest for the Yankees to be aware of the Sox offers.

 

Also, I don't think there's much risk of current Sox players (Coco aside) being offended by discussions about being traded for the best pitcher in baseball. If anything it has to be an ego boost.

[riverside sluggers]

Ellsbury, Masterson, Lowrie for Santana... The Sox would find themselves with a surplus of starting pitchers-- Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Ellsbury' date=' Masterson, Lowrie for Santana... The Sox would find themselves with a surplus of starting pitchers-- Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester[/quote']

 

Can never have too much pitching.

 

That being said I wonder if there is another option for CF should the Red Sox decide to move Ellsbury and not be committed to Crisp. I have a high degree of confidence the Red Sox would stick with Coco Crisp. He is a step up defensively from Ellsbury and with that pitching staff it will be hard to score runs against us.

 

I wonder if the Sox could talk to the Tigers about either Cameron Maybin or Curtis Granderson? Just a thought.

[example1]

Can never have too much pitching.

 

That being said I wonder if there is another option for CF should the Red Sox decide to move Ellsbury and not be committed to Crisp. I have a high degree of confidence the Red Sox would stick with Coco Crisp. He is a step up defensively from Ellsbury and with that pitching staff it will be hard to score runs against us.

 

I wonder if the Sox could talk to the Tigers about either Cameron Maybin or Curtis Granderson? Just a thought.

 

Cameron Maybin is one of the top prospects in baseball. Unless we're willing to deal huge he's not going anywhere.

 

Crisp and Ellsbury will be equals defensively. I am pretty certain that Crisp will not reproduce his defensive production from this season again. He was and is a great outfielder defensively, but the difference between them will not be noticeable.

[riverside sluggers]

If Ellsbury is dealt, Id still like to see Crisp moved for relief help. Then the Sox could look into a center fielder that hasnt gotten a lot of attention, Andruw Jones

[yankeessuck013]

I think the Twins are now starting to overplay there hand a little bit

 

 

I think there underestimating the fact that whatever team trades for him has to give him a 6 year 150 million dollar deal and even though hes arguably the best pitcher in the game that is going to drive his value down

 

but you can't fault them for trying to get as much as they can.

 

But lets face it w/ that contract demand this is a 2 pony race unless the name J.Reyes starts getting tossed around

 

The Twins have to be careful b/c if Boston or NY shoots over to Oak and lands Haren you can expect the offer for Santana to go down. I mean if NY landed Haren tomorrow I would expect the red sox to immediately pull ellsbury off the table.

[cam780]

Can never have too much pitching.

 

That being said I wonder if there is another option for CF should the Red Sox decide to move Ellsbury and not be committed to Crisp. I have a high degree of confidence the Red Sox would stick with Coco Crisp. He is a step up defensively from Ellsbury and with that pitching staff it will be hard to score runs against us.

 

I wonder if the Sox could talk to the Tigers about either Cameron Maybin or Curtis Granderson? Just a thought.

 

I don't see a deal with Detroit but if the Sox deal Ellsbury and keep their pitchers I could see a trade for an outfielder. I like to think that I know the Sox prospects but not necessarily other teams. I would think a Lester for Baldelli deal could get done given Baldellis injury history or in the I wish it could happen but it'd probably take Buchholz deal- Matt Kemp. Dodgers could then flip him or package Kershaw for Cabrera.

[cam780]

I don't see a deal with Detroit but if the Sox deal Ellsbury and keep their pitchers I could see a trade for an outfielder. I like to think that I know the Sox prospects but not necessarily other teams. I would think a Lester for Baldelli deal could get done given Baldellis injury history or in the I wish it could happen but it'd probably take Buchholz deal- Matt Kemp. Dodgers could then flip him or package Kershaw for Cabrera.

 

I disagree to an extent. If the Yanks go after Haren sure it hinders what the Twins can get for him but the option to keep him still exists. One of the benefits of the trade is the exclusive negotiating rights. The Yanks will be involved if he makes it to FA which if you want him may actually cost you more than 6/150.

[Cityofchampions33]

Can never have too much pitching.

 

That being said I wonder if there is another option for CF should the Red Sox decide to move Ellsbury and not be committed to Crisp. I have a high degree of confidence the Red Sox would stick with Coco Crisp. He is a step up defensively from Ellsbury and with that pitching staff it will be hard to score runs against us.

 

I wonder if the Sox could talk to the Tigers about either Cameron Maybin or Curtis Granderson? Just a thought.

 

Surplus of pitchers would probably help in the backup/future catcher department more than trading for another CF, lest Covelli has another bad offensive year. Talk to Seattle for Clement perhaps?

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Per roto:

 

Sources told FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal that Johan Santana has informed the Twins he will not waive his no-trade protection to allow an in-season trade.

 

The one reason the Twins might have kept Santana now is that they felt he'd still bring back a substantial package in July. If they have to be worried about him refusing a trade now, then they'll almost have to accept an offer from either the Yankees or Red Sox.

 

Safe to say a deal will be done. Probably in the next couple days.

[example1]

If Ellsbury is dealt' date=' Id still like to see Crisp moved for relief help. Then the Sox could look into a center fielder that hasnt gotten a lot of attention, Andruw Jones[/quote']

 

Meh. Keep Ellsbury.

 

Slow news day... some thoughts.

 

1) At the pace that Ellsbury was producing for the Sox at the end of the season, he was on pace for 28 Win Shares or so in a full season (actually, in a 2007 Coco season of 1216 fielding innings). Ellsbury had 6 WS in 257 fielding innings, which would be 28.3891 Win Shares.

 

2) I see no reason Ellsbury's OPS, particularly his SLG, will not be aided by Fenway. He is a deadly triples hitter, and anything to the CF triangle, or deep into RF can turn into a triple. Add in doubles off weird angles and I think it is reasonable to think that Ellsbury can approach an .870 OPS for at least season or two during his career--probably not right away--and he will hover near .825.

 

3) I use .900 as a mark because this year's stint was a .902, so I will speculate something close to 28 WS as a top-end. That is the production of guys who are at the top of their game and an integral part of their offense's success. Rollins, Utley and Hanley were all at about 28 WS this year, all given some because of their important role in the defense as well as their offensive skills.

 

4) By scaling that estimation down a bit, say, reducing it to, say, 70%, we're still talking about about 20 WS (okay, 19.87237).

 

5) This year Johan Santana earned 18 WS. 25, 23 and 27 the previous 3 years. When he's pitching Santana is tremendously important, but individual pitchers have less impact due to their more limited role, and tend to come at a much higher cost.

 

6) The top pitcher this year, in terms of WS, was CC Sabathia with 24; then came Peavy at 23, then Webb, Carmona, Lackey, etc., Pitchers who pitch for teams with less offensive talent are pitchers whose team is much more likely to win in games when that pitcher starts than when he doesn't. They also tend to have disproportionatly good and bountiful numbers compared to their peers, so they get a larger share of the wins. It just makes sense.

 

7) It is easy to be skeptical of such systems, and probably correct to be so. However, for me the real proof is in the ability of a complex formula to produce lists that appear, to me at least, to jive with my observations. The lists aren't FORCED into it, they generate themselves if the formula is right.

 

For instance, last year's best players according to total WS (imagine, impact on team on both sides of the ball, with some accommodation for players who apparently carried their teams given the larger proportion of statistical output).

 

Does this list ring true?

 

If so, how does that apply to the comments above about Ellsbury possibly being a 20 WS player as soon as he enters the league (Pedroia was at 19 last year)? Just curious.

 

A-Rod: 39 (means he single-handedly gets credit for 13 Yankee wins)

Ordonez: 36 (credited for 12 wins)

Wright: 34

Ichiro: 33 (the M's fall apart last year without him, and they DID have a really solid run)

Pujols: 32

Sizemore: 31

Vlad: 31

VMart: 31

C. Pena: 30

Cabrera: 30

Holliday: 30

Ortiz: 29

H. Ramirez: 29

Utley: 28

Rollins: 28

Fielder: 28

Gonzalez: 27

=========

for reference: some players who had 21-19 WS seasons:

 

21: Dunn, Bonds, Penny, Crawford, Willingham, Burrell, Cano, Zimmerman

20: Aaron Hill, Atkins, Pence, Jose Guillen, Youkilis, Ellis, Hudson

19: Abreu, Carlos GUillen, Haren, Pedroia, Bedard, Beckett, Cust Hardy, Morneau, Swisher

 

Also, FYI, the Red Sox, in order (from hardball times)

 

Ortiz: 29

Lowell: 24

Youk: 20

Pedroia: 19

Beckett: 19

Crisp: 16

Varitek: 15

Manny: 15

Matsuzaka: 12

Drew: 12

Lugo: 12

Papelbon: 12

Schilling: 10

Okajima: 10

Wakefield: 10

Ellsbury: 6

Delcarmen: 5

Cora 4

Lester: 4

Lopez: 4

Tavarez: 4

 

it goes on from there... but who cares?

 

I think it is worth noting that, due to the defensive impact various positions have (for hitters) and the fact that each pitcher can only accrue win shares every 5th day, the best way to look at them is compared by position.

 

-For instance, Lowell was the 2nd highest 3B in the AL, 5th in baseball.

 

-Crisp ranked right between Andruw Jones and Chris Young (one on the way down, the other on the way up, IMHO).

 

 

=====

-Buchholz had 3 WS in 22 IP. Let's throw out the likely anamoly of the no-hitter and drop that expectation a bit. Let's go 2 WS in 22 IP. In his projected 180 IPs this year that would be 16.35 WS. Pitchers roughly in the 'class' of 16 WS in 2007:

 

17: Harang, Buehrle, Kazmir

16: Wainwright, Wang, Zambrano, Shields (James, not Scott), Smoltz, Verlander

15: Hamels, Hernandez (felix), Meche, Blanton

 

His numbers are helped by his high K's which is an out directly attributable to the P, thus making pitchers who can get swings-and-misses more valuable than Kenny Rogers.

 

-If Buchholz evens out to getting 1 WS every 22 IP (i.e., considerably worse then he pitched when he was up, let's say he shrivels under the pressure), that pro-rated to 180 IP would be 8.1818 WS. Pretty bad, right? Yes, but not a capital offense.

 

Other pitchers who had roughly 8 WS:

9: Sheets, Maddux, Westbrook, Kendrick, Lowry, Gallardo,

8: Looper, Zito, James, Marquis, Moyer, Suppan, RObertson, Baker, Trachsel

7: Willis, Bonderman, Litsch, Saunders, DiNardo, Lincecum

Rodriguez (wandy)

 

--Lester, pro-rated to 180 IP at his production this year--which seems a fair guess--would have been an 11.42 WS guy.

 

--So if next year, Lester is a 11 WS guy, and Ellsbury is a 19 WS guy, you're looking at 30 WS. If Santana is 23, and Crisp is 16 again, then that's 39 WS. Without counting the different costs (600K vs. 18 million or so), or the other players involved (Masterson/Lowrie?) it looks like a net gain. And it might be anyway, but at some point it might be useful to think about how much money you're spending per WS and making sure to maxamize those advantages when you have them (i.e., you may be able to make a reasonable version of Ellsbury on the market, but he won't cost MLB minimum).

 

If anyone wants to run with it, feel free. Otherwise, cheers. :thumbsup:

[riverside sluggers]

Meh. Keep Ellsbury.

 

If Ellsbury is dealt, Id still like to see Crisp moved for relief help. Then the Sox could look into a center fielder that hasnt gotten a lot of attention, Andruw Jones

 

If Ellsbury is dealt, this is what I would like to see happen. Im one of the few who is worried that Ellsbury will be dealt

[example1]

If Ellsbury is dealt' date=' this is what I would like to see happen. Im one of the few who is worried that Ellsbury will be dealt[/quote']

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7517774?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

 

Sounds like it is either Ellsbury + Lowrie + maybe someone else OR Lester + Coco + Lowrie + someone else. They have never taken Ellsbury off the table, but they have indicated they won't do both Ellsbury and Lester (they must feel that combined they are too good to give up), but they are willing to "get creative" if the Twins absolutely must have Ellsbury.

 

Ellsbury + Lowrie for Santana would be fine with me. The pitching staff would be ungodly, particularly since the Sox would not be losing ANY significant pitching. Which, to me, seems unlikely that the Twins would accept.

[das11209]

Yankees set deadline for Twins trade - they must respond by Monday.

 

In case anyone is not sick of Santana news:

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/12/02/santana.talks/index.html

 

Edit - We obviously are quite aware of how Yankees do stick to their words in view of A-Rod saga.

[rician blast]

Imagine a 7-8-9 combo of Gagne-Nathan-Papelbon (if Gagne were to accept arb). Peter Abraham is saying the Sox aren't serious though.

 

two-thirds of that trio is ok...but seriously..you want Gagne being a primary 7th inning guy? What about Oki? Delcarmen? Timlin?

[yankeessuck013]

i was quoting the article...

[BSN07]

If lester is not traded in the Minny deal, I would expect he might get traded elsewhere. There really would be no spot for him on the ML staff until next season. They could stick him in AAA I suppose.

 

Lester+Crisp for a new CF or C. Would you do this deal for Salty, and sign Jones at a discount hopefully? Any thoughts

[KeepTheFaith1229]

If we deal Ells, Andruw Jones plz.

[rician blast]

i was quoting the article...

 

 

What article? Who is the f***ing genius that wrote that?

[BSN07]

2B Pedroia

1B Youk/Salty as back up maybe

DH Ortiz

LF Manny

CF Jones

3B Lowell

RF Drew

C Varitek/Salty back up

SS Lugo

 

1. Beckett

2. Santana

3.Dice-K

4.Schilling

5.Wake/Buccholz

 

Thats pretty tempting, I understand alot would have to happen...

[rician blast]

If we deal Ells' date=' Andruw Jones plz.[/quote']

 

no thanks on Jones...getting fatter by the minute and Ks a lot. if Ellsbury goes, Coco is our guy.

 

By the way, if I'm in the Twins FO am I concerned that the Yanks say they'll pull their offer? Not likely...didn't they just recently say that if ARod opts out they will not negotiate with him?

 

Do they have any credibility at this point? Does anyone really believe that if Monday comes and goes with no deal that they'll just let the Sox have him?

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

By the way, if I'm in the Twins FO am I concerned that the Yanks say they'll pull their offer? Not likely...didn't they just recently say that if ARod opts out they will not negotiate with him?

 

Do they have any credibility at this point? Does anyone really believe that if Monday comes and goes with no deal that they'll just let the Sox have him?

 

In a word....No

 

Yankees front office is talking a little too much this offseason

[Jayhawk Bill]

You do realize that statistics are not a necessary element of a logical argument?

 

I give up. It is no fun having a discussion with someone who considers his opinion to be infallible. From this point on, when I refer to Melky I will call him "Future Hall of Famer, Melky Cabrera" or "AllStar Melky Cabrera."

 

You appear not to have read my words.

 

I concluded my post with:

 

"I would propose, instead, that we record our differences and move on, looking back, perhaps, if Melky Cabrera might either collapse or have a breakthrough season, at which point one or the other of us might clearly have been correct in our foresight."

 

You respond to my suggestion that we wait to see who might be right with,

 

"It is no fun having a discussion with someone who considers his opinion to be infallible."

 

Dude, you're projecting. I state my reasons and suggest that we wait; you say that I'm claiming infallibility. :thumbdown

 

Here's the deal: you made an opinionated statement regarding Melky Cabrera that flies in the face of the relative merit of his accomplishments when compared to all others who have played Major League Baseball at his age. Having done that, when confronted with the facts, you try to insult me.

 

I'm willing to wait to see who's right. I'm not willing to give you the last word when your every post is an unresearched insult.

 

Give it up, a700hitter...give up the insults, and acknowledge that you cannot see the future better than I can and that, our opinions both posted, we should wait and see who's right.

 

BTW if you wanted to compare Miggy Cabrera to some HOF careers, I'd give credence to that, because Miggy has some extraordinary accomplishments. Melky';s accomplishments are at best above average, but certainly not extraordinary.

 

Miggy Cabrera's top ten BR comparables after age 24 are either likely HOF-bound (Vlad Guerrero, Andruw Jones, Ken Griffey Jr.) or HOF enshrined, excepting Hal Trosky. Trosky retired due to migraines at age 28, although he tried a comeback 3-5 years later unsuccessfully.

 

Miggy's top comparables at age 22--Melky Cabrera's age--were equally excellent, but with Tony C and Cesar Cedeno added to the mix. We know the story regarding Tony C; Cesar Cedeno had troubles of his own:

 

CESAR CEDENO

Arrested for: DUI, assault, Murder, beating his pregnant girlfriend, battery on a police officer

Cedeno was called “the next Willie Mays,” and he justified the hype by hitting .320 in 1972 and 1973. But on December 11, 1973, he shacked up with Altragracia de la Cruz in a Santo Domingo motel. During the night, the woman was shot in the head and killed. Cedeno claimed it was an accident. (Accidents do happen—especially when a loving couple messes with a loaded gun.) The court reduced the charge to involuntary manslaughter, leveling a fine of $100. Obviously distraught over the whole incident, Cedeno kept playing in the majors until 1986.

 

http://www.maximonline.com/articles/index.aspx?a_id=4459

 

I guess the moral is that only Miggy Cabrera can keep Miggy Cabrera from the HOF. It could be his appetite, it could be drug use, it could be injury...it couldn't be that he doesn't have the talent to be enshrined.

 

Melky Cabrera isn't as good as Miggy Cabrera, even considering defense (remember, Melky's is excellent and Miggy's is atrocious, making them more comparable than one might expect looking just at hitting stats). Only about 30% of his comparables are Cooperstown-worthy. That is, however, 30% more than most players' comparables. Most of his comparables made the All Star team. That was, and is, my projection.

[a700hitter]

JayHawk, what part of "I give up" didn't you understand? Surrender is not enough for you? I have said that I will refer to him from this point on as "Future Hall of Famer, Melky Cabrera" or "All Star Melky Cabrera."

[yankeessuck013]

What article? Who is the f***ing genius that wrote that?

 

MLB Trade Rumors.

[riverside sluggers]

Yankees vice president Hank Steinbrenner confirmed that he plans to pull his team's offer for Johan Santana on Monday.

 

Just when it looked like the Yankees might have gotten him muzzled. "I think our offer is the best offer," Steinbrenner said. "We have the best young pitchers in the game, even better than Boston." The Yankees are believed to be offering Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a prospect for Santana. Steinbrenner indicated that the third player isn't what's holding up the deal. "That's erroneous," he said. "I don't think that will be the sticking point."

 

I think I like George better than his son

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

Hank really need to shut up.

[jacksonianmarch]

If I actually had faith that they would stick to the deadline, I'd be overjoyed by this statement.

 

Johan's statement about emphasizing his NT clause during the season would be even more important IMO. This means that the Twins lose all leverage.

 

I have an eery feeling that there is someone else in this mix that nobody talks about. On one end, the yankees dont leak anything, they just flat out tell the media. On the sox end, they control leaks very well, so one would assume that all of their "negotations" are going public to make the yankees pay through the nose. I have said all along that I dont think the sox are serious in this chase unless they can get him for much less than they are comfortable with.

 

Just remember the deals...

Texas was supposed to end up with Beckett. Boston was only a speculated destination. Then, the "leak" was that they had agreed on a trade.

 

Curt Schilling was supposed to go to the yankees. Then you hear about the sox and dbacks agreeing to a deal and the whole thanksgiving stuff to try and get him to drop his NT.

 

DiceK was giftwrapped to NY. Then 51.1mil later, the sox won the bidding.

 

They dont leak things until they happen. This speculation has me speculating that this is all a hoax to raise the price.

[Taliesin]

It'll be interesting in The Bronx again at least w/ Girardi and Hank doing their red-headed step-chlld version of Martin and his daddy after years of moribund sanctimony and dugout nose-picking. If only they could clone Melky than they could command two future HOF's for the price of one. Lot's of smoke and mirrors and red-herrings abound...Crunchy...Crunchy where for art thou.

 

I'm sick of this debacle at this point, but the Dodgers have the talent to move on him...it just comes down to the $$. I think he ends up in N.Y. but that's just a feeling and from years of watching the circus. I'd love him, but not at the asking prices. Minny knows he has to go now or risk nothing in return as does the entire planet.