Johan Santana

[cam780]

What does "definitive treatment of what HAD been a chronic problem" mean exactly? He had a wrist injury, correct?

 

I'd imagine some in the organization are very concerned that it could remain a long-term, nagging injury that saps his power. In 2007 he hit a respectable .307 but had only 5 dingers and 23 total extra-base hits...that's only 18% of his hits going for xtra bases.

 

I don't see how this kid is a huge issue in any Santana deal and if I'm the Twins I'm chasing one of the Sox minor league pitchers before I take the leap that this kid will pan out.

 

The most important part of Charley Waters piece is actually what he is overlooking - the Yankee's don't have the type of prospects that would be able to contribute in 2008. That would change if they add Cano and/or Hughes but his deal most likely isn't getting done.

[ARod2212]

Make the move in a heartbeat if it's Kennedy and Cabrera and whoever. Hughes makes me iffy about a trade, and Cano is a dealbreaker.

 

I honestly don't see the Sox making a legit move for Santana. They're not giving up Ellsbury, and Minnesota doesn't make a move with them without Ellsbury or Buchholz.

[riverside sluggers]

Make the move in a heartbeat if it's Kennedy and Cabrera and whoever. Hughes makes me iffy about a trade, and Cano is a dealbreaker.

 

I honestly don't see the Sox making a legit move for Santana. They're not giving up Ellsbury, and Minnesota doesn't make a move with them without Ellsbury or Buchholz.

 

According to SI.com's Jon Heyman, the Yankees are involved in an internal debate on whether to give up Phil Hughes in a Johan Santana deal.

 

It doesn't look like the Twins will settle for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and prospects, but the Yankees would be the favorites if they parted with Hughes over Kennedy. The Red Sox are still proposing Jon Lester, Coco Crisp and prospects (likely Jed Lowrie and either Justin Masterson or Michael Bowden). If there's a third serious contender from the group that includes the Mariners, Angels and Dodgers, then both sides are doing well in keeping it quiet.

[ORS]

Lastly

 

I want to join your fantasy league because I've got a couple of deals for you.

I see this sentiment frequently. Please don't mix what's valuable in a 5x5 fantasy league with what's valuable in real baseball. Don't get me wrong, the things valuable in fantasy ball are valuable in real ball as well, but they aren't the whole story.

[example1]

And honestly? I do have doubts as to whether or not the total package for Ellsbury is better. I've shown his numbers were fueled by an insanely high BABIP.

 

I showed that there are some players who consistently have a high BABIP, and used Ichiro as one example. I think it is fueled by his tremendous speed. Bill James predicts a BABIP of .350 for Ellsbury this year, which indicates that he thinks there may be factors that influence BABIP. Chances are Ellsbury will never be below average in BABIP.

 

It's funny, your argument against Ellsbury is that he had a number of 'soft' hits, and that much of his production was lucky. What I saw was that a lot of the soft hits fell in, and a lot of his other BIPs were hard hit but right at guys. Sounds a lot like Pedroia.

 

If you knew that Ellsbury was going to be as important to this team in 08 and beyond as Pedroia was in 2007 would you be saying that he's only a 'little' better than Crisp? At 23 years old I would say that player would be CONSIDERABLY better than Crisp. For awhile, Robinson Cano was only a little better than Miguel Cairo, but now there is no comparison.

 

Can he sustain it? Maybe. But it is by no means a slam dunk sure thing.

 

Can Crisp sustain playing CF like a HOF? I find that even more doubtful. If Crisp's defense regresses to even close to league average then we're talking about a pretty awful CF option for a team that is supposed to compete consistently. For whatever reason, Crisp had a defensive explosion last year. He's a great defender, but the difference in offense between Ellsbury and Crisp VASTLY outweighs their differences in defense. Ellsbury, at his age, has a reputation as a better defensive outfielder than Crisp did and we've already seen it many times. In my book, the chances of Ellsbury keeping a higher than average BABIP is higher than the chance that Crisp will be as good defensively as he was this year.

 

Answer me this. Do you really feel the difference between Lester and Santana in the rotation is less than Crisp and Ellsbury?

 

If you throw in Masterson's career and Lowrie's career along with Ellsbury then this is a definite Yes! Even at face value I think the difference is significant in both cases. Add to that the 20m a year that Santana will get paid and it quickly becomes obvious that comparing the difference between this small set of players is insufficient for guaging this potential trade. You have to consider cost, and the type of players the Sox would likely go after with that 20 million dollars. I think you think they will go after a crappy player at too much money, while I assume they will invest that 20m intelligently, whether to a great pitcher like Santana, or another good young player.

 

If you're counting on Jacoby Ellsbury to carry an offense, you're in trouble anyway.

 

Are we counting on that? I didn't think Ellsbury was supposed to carry the offense. At 300K+ I thought he was supposed to be a solid leadoff hitter/role player for the next few years. Working at-bats, playing above average defense, stealing 40+ bases and scoring a shitload of runs in front of this lineup.

 

the Guardians of the mid-90s sure didn't rely on Kenny Lofton to carry the offense. Thome, Belle and Manny played a part in that. Lofton just happened to be one of the many players who made the offense absolutely devistating top to bottom. Ellsbury will be the same way (as indicated by his OBP). Crisp will not (as indicated by his OBP).

 

Again, there are other pitchers like Santana. You're assuming there is a vast lack of talent out there, which is simply false, given how much talent we already have in our own farm system. Find me another CF with Ellsbury's potential for Ellsbury's cost. Go ahead. Think the Tigers will give us Cameron Maybin for nothing? Maybe we can get Hunter Pence from the Astros because we want him.

 

Buchholz is much closer to Santana than many here will give him credit for, until, of course, he proves it on the field, at which point eveyrone will say 'of course its a no-brainer that you keep Buchholz for years and years at MLB minimum instead of trading him for a reasonable facsimile at 20 million more a year.' Ellsbury is closer to tradeable, but he shouldn't be moved.

[riverside sluggers]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3135740

 

Buster Olney is reporting that the Yankees are leaning toward giving up Hughes. The already heard package of Hughes, Cabrera and Jose Tabata

 

He also goes on to say that the Yankees and Red Sox are also in discussions with the A's about Haren. He would cost roughly the same package ammount but no extension is needed as he is under contract at 3 years/$16.25 million

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3135740

 

Buster Olney is reporting that the Yankees are leaning toward giving up Hughes. The already heard package of Hughes, Cabrera and Jose Tabata

 

He also goes on to say that the Yankees and Red Sox are also in discussions with the A's about Haren. He would cost roughly the same package ammount but no extension is needed as he is under contract at 3 years/$16.25 million

 

Lets just lay this out:

 

Yankees

Hughes, Cabrera, Jackson/Tabata

6 years / 150 million extention for Santana

Now required to look at Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones since Damon may not be capable of CF.

 

Red Sox

Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson/Bowden

cost control of Dan Haren

 

....I like the Red Sox position more than the Yankees.

[Rdsxmbnt]

id rather have santana

[cam780]

I see this sentiment frequently. Please don't mix what's valuable in a 5x5 fantasy league with what's valuable in real baseball. Don't get me wrong' date=' the things valuable in fantasy ball are valuable in real ball as well, but they aren't the whole story.[/quote']

 

 

Oy. You know I was actually weighing what my smart ass remark was going to be because I actually had to read the whole Coco Crisp could be considered comparable to Manny Ramirez last year thing five times. I agree with Kilo alot but I don't care if you're looking at it statistically what Manny brings to the lineup goes beyond his production and extends to how he sets up Ortiz.

 

I originally asked if he owned a Coco Crisp jersey but then I said that might get lost on some people because what I was trying for is if he's traded then the jersey is no good anymore not just that he likes the guy so I said ah I'll edit it and make a joke about a fantasy trade because everyone can relate and I actually said to myself maybe I should do the jersey thing because someone might think that I value fantasy stats over real life contributions but then I said nah because after all I just spent the better part of 5 minutes looking at the numbers and making a seemingly logical comparison of Crisp vs Jones that included a portion on defense and Jones' intangible value on this team that a fan of fantasy baseball that just thinks that he knows something about the sport through that would never do so I said 98% of people that are here that read that will probably take it as a joke and not actually think that I value players based on their fantasy performance and then I said woah - its a joke just write it down and don't overthink it and then I come on to see if Kilo's got a response to my voice and I read this reply and all I hear is John Sterling talking to Suzey Waldman.

[ORS]

Example1, what type of line do you see Crisp and Ellsbury putting up next year?

[cam780]

Lets just lay this out:

 

Yankees

Hughes, Cabrera, Jackson/Tabata

6 years / 150 million extention for Santana

Now required to look at Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones since Damon may not be capable of CF.

 

Red Sox

Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson/Bowden

cost control of Dan Haren

 

....I like the Red Sox position more than the Yankees.

 

I honestly don't think that that Yankees deal gets it done. I'd think something along the lines of Kennedy / Cabrera / Cano / Tabata would seal it.

 

If I'm in control of the Sox, I get Santana or I don't go after anyone. Right now the Red Sox are ready to compete the only reason you give up your prospects for pitching is if its literally for the best pitcher in baseball.

[ORS]

Oy. You know I was actually weighing what my smart ass remark was going to be because I actually had to read the whole Coco Crisp could be considered comparable to Manny Ramirez last year thing five times. I agree with Kilo alot but I don't care if you're looking at it statistically what Manny brings to the lineup goes beyond his production and extends to how he sets up Ortiz.

 

I originally asked if he owned a Coco Crisp jersey but then I said that might get lost on some people because what I was trying for is if he's traded then the jersey is no good anymore not just that he likes the guy so I said ah I'll edit it and make a joke about a fantasy trade because everyone can relate and I actually said to myself maybe I should do the jersey thing because someone might think that I value fantasy stats over real life contributions but then I said nah because after all I just spent the better part of 5 minutes looking at the numbers and making a seemingly logical comparison of Crisp vs Jones that included a portion on defense and Jones' intangible value on this team that a fan of fantasy baseball that just thinks that he knows something about the sport through that would never do so I said 98% of people that are here that read that will probably take it as a joke and not actually think that I value players based on their fantasy performance and then I said woah - its a joke just write it down and don't overthink it and then I come on to see if Kilo's got a response to my voice and I read this reply and all I hear is John Sterling talking to Suzey Waldman.

So you hear voices? Wouldn't SoSH be a more comfortable fit, what with the whole Son of Sam connection?

[cam780]

Baseball Prospectus put up the following:

 

There’s nothing wrong with building a trade package around Philip Hughes or Jon Lester, and having the next-best player be someone such as Melky Cabrera or Jed Lowrie. The problem is that it’s just not what the Twins need. If the Twins are going to trade the best pitcher in baseball, or more accurately, one year of his work and exclusive negotiating rights, they have to make their team demonstrably better in the medium term. That means acquiring two hitters who will step into their lineup and upgrade their offense, and who will be capable of being among the best players on contending teams in the new ballpark. Trading Garza for Young was a step in the right direction, it’s just not the last step. The Twins still have staggering amounts of pitching depth, and nothing remotely comparable on the hitting side.

 

This is why I don’t think the Yankees, short of putting Joba Chamberlain into the deal and also trading two of the usual suspects with him, have a chance. The best hitter the Yankees can trade is Melky Cabrera, although you might argue that Austin Jackson is better. Jackson is two years away from the majors, of course, and harder to project. The Red Sox would be a stronger contender if they wanted to include Jacoby Ellsbury, but that seems highly unlikely.

 

No, the teams the Twins should be looking to trade with are the ones with major league-ready hitters who not only are good now, but who have star potential. The Mets might have fit the bill, with outfield prospect Lastings Milledge ready to play right now, another in Fernando Martinez who’s among the 25 best prospects in the game, and some pitching depth with which to play. [Ed. Note: The story on Milledge to the Nats broke just minutes ago.] The Dodgers are an even better fit, loaded with hitters (Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, James Loney, Ching-Lung Hu), prone to trading them away and dying to make a big move. The Angels would be interesting if they were to include Howie Kendrick, but that seems unlikely. The bloom is off players such as Brandon Wood and Jeff Mathis.

[cam780]

So you hear voices? Wouldn't SoSH be a more comfortable fit' date=' what with the whole Son of Sam connection?[/quote']

 

I have to admit ignorance on this one? And congrats on the whole humor thing. I think I would've laughed (EDIT - NM, I got it and I was wrong. I wouldn't have laughed.)if I knew what you were talking about but other than trading jabs. Do you agree that Crisp was comparable to Manny last year because I was attempting to say that I disagreed with that particular point. I admit I failed miserably but that was in fact the intent.

[ORS]

Sure, I think Crisp contributed as much to the team as Manny did last year, while being mindful of the fact that Manny spent some time on the shelf and had his worst year ever by quite a bit.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Yankees willing to trade Hughes

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After two days of internal discussions among front-office executives, the Yankees swallowed hard Friday and decided to offer Phil Hughes to the Twins as part of the trade package they hope will land them Johan Santana.

 

"We're going for it," was the way one club source put it.

 

Based on their talks with Twins GM Bill Smith, the Yankees knew they couldn't make a deal for Santana without including Hughes, their 21-year-old righthander widely regarded as a potential staff ace.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2007/11/30/2007-11-30_yankees_decide_to_offer_phil_hughes_in_p-2.html

[Anuj09]

Then the deal will be all but done soon. Congrats Yankee fans.

[BSN07]

If we send the same package to Oakland(or close to it) that would mean(if deal is made)...

 

Sox will have Haren at 3 yrs/16.25M +Ellsbury+Buccholz-$ it woul cost sign Santana, No contract envy from Beckett(not saying he would complain, but it should be considered).

 

To be honest, I know Sanatana is the prize but thats not a bad fall back plan. I know Santana going to the Yanks is rough, but a rotation of Beckett, Harden, Matsuzaka,Schilling, Wake/Buccholz is better then what the Yanks will put out as of now. If Pettite comes back then the Yanks will also have a strong rotation and teams will not look forward to playing the Yanks or the Sox. If they don't already cringe when the 2 teams come to town.

[example1]

Example1' date=' what type of line do you see Crisp and Ellsbury putting up next year?[/quote']

 

I'm not always one for statistical predictions. I have said time and time again that I think Ellsbury's numbers will look a heck of a lot like Pedroia's from this year given the similarity of their career minor league numbers:

 

5. Whose career minor league numbers are better?

[table]???? AB AVG OBP SLG OPS R

Player A: 1040 .308 .391 .454 .845 167

Player B: 1017 .314 .390 .426 .816 174 [/table]

 

More runs, fewer ABs, better AVG, exact same OBP, lower SLG. Overall, very similar.

 

 

I will, however, defer to Bill James, who has done more work in this area. His prediction?

[table] name | G | AB | 2B | 3B | HR |R | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS

Ellsbury | 125 | 463| 29 | 5 | 5 | 78 | 46 | 39 | 55 | 42 | 10 | .320 | .374 | .436 | .810

 

[/table]

 

The most striking thing there is the AVG, but I don't actually care about that. I will, per usual, look at the OBP and SLG. Also, notice the fewer number of games. I'd say that's a pretty solid rookie season.

 

James' Crisp prediction:

 

125 G,458 AB, 26 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 67 R, 48 RBI, 39 BB, 69 K, 19 SB, 7 CS

.276/.335/.400 /.735

 

Both can be found here, just type in the names.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1572&position=OF

 

Is it gospel? No, not at all. Is it likely right along the lines of what the Red Sox are most likely thinking? Yep.

 

James' simplified 08 prediction for Pedroia: .299/.369/.436/.805

 

 

James predicts that Ellsbury will rack up 6.32 RC/27, (down from 8.66 in 2007's short stint). Does that dissuade me? No.

 

A 6.32 RC/27 in a full 2007 season would have put him right here on the leaderboard:

6.66 Manny Ramirez

6.64 Frank Thomas

6.61 Brian Roberts

6.60 Dustin Pedroia

6.60 Gary Sheffield

6.58 Adrian Gonzalez

6.57 Jeff Kent

6.53 Garrett Atkins

6.51 Rickie Weeks

6.41 Kelly Johnson

6.34 Nick Swisher

6.34 Derek Jeter

6.32 Travis Hafner/Jacoby Ellsbury (projected 08)

6.28 Carl Crawford

6.26 Josh Willingham

6.26 Ryan Garko

6.24 Russell Martin

6.24 Carlos Guillen

6.20 Eric Byrnes

6.19 Bobby Abreu

6.14 Carlos Lee

6.12 Nick Markakis

6.08 Edwin Encarnacion

6.07 Troy Tulowitzki

6.07 Raul Ibanez

5.93 Robinson Cano

 

FWIW, James predicts that Crisp will have a 4.76 RC/27 (up from last year's 4.50) and Pedroia to have a 5.85. 4.76 puts Crisp, offensively, in this group (without numbers, because I just don't feel like typing them! ):

 

5.00: Brendan Harris

Jason Bay

Ryan ZImmerman

Chris Young

Shannon Stewart

David Dejesus

Jose Bautista

Mark Teahen

Coco Crisp 2008

Gary Matthews Jr

Jason Bartlett

Khalil Greene

Brian McCann

Mark Loretta

Melvin Mora

Bill Hall

Coco Crisp (07)

 

Now, that's a pretty good list, but is there a single name on that list that belongs with the group above with Jeter, Hafner, Lee, Abreu, etc.? I don't think so. Chris Young will probably have a better year, although he was very good anyway. James predicts that Ellsbury will be better in 08 than Young was in 07.

 

I am pretty sure that RC doesn't do a good job of incorporating defense, but I'm also pretty sure that Crisp isn't that much better a defender than Ellsbury. If you look at their FRAA from 07, and pro-rate it, Ellsbury approaches Crisp's totals.

 

I just don't see them as being that close.

 

I think many people have a hard time imagining a player who does NOT hit a lot of HR or get a lot of RBI actually being extremely useful for a team on offense. In this day of steroids and HGH, I would love for the Sox to load up on guys who, in another era, would have been MVP candidates. People are so skewed by the last 15 years of HRs and RBIs that they are undervaluing guys who still produce a shitload of runs at MLB minimum.

[example1]

Yankees willing to trade Hughes

 

 

 

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2007/11/30/2007-11-30_yankees_decide_to_offer_phil_hughes_in_p-2.html

 

:lol:

 

f***ing GREAT!!! I Love it!!

 

Bye bye Phil Hughes. They blinked.

[arbitrary]

Who else would be in that Trade besides Hughes? That would determine in they "blinked".

[ORS]

Here's the thing, though. The difference btw a 4.75 and 6.3 RC/G is about 25-30 runs depending on playing time. Let's call it 30 for your sake. A reasonable prediction for Lester would be about league average at a 4.50 ERA. Over 180 IP, that's 90 runs, and it's a wash if Santana pitches to a 3.33. Both numbers are probably high, but it shows the value gained is easily erased on the pitching end.

 

But that's not it. Santana typically pitches about 220 IP, so you need to fill the void with more league average or worse pitching, which tips the scale in favor having Santana and Crisp over Ellsbury and Lester.

 

Also, keep in mind, that James predictions are blind to situation. It's a plug and play formula. I'm much more confident that Crisp can improve and return to a level he's previously hit at than I am that Ellsbury can come up and be a run producer like Jeter is for a whole season.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Who else would be in that Trade besides Hughes? That would determine in they "blinked".

 

Cabrera is the the other essential piece if the Twins are dealing with the Yankees, and

 

Cabrera + Hughes > Santana

 

IMVHO, salary considerations included.

 

It's more likely Cabrera + Hughes + one versus Crisp + Lester + two right now, and I'd be happy to see Boston lose the deal at that point.

[a700hitter]

I think the wins still turn it down unless Kennedy is also included. It's just an offer.

[example1]

Example1' date=' what type of line do you see Crisp and Ellsbury putting up next year?[/quote']

 

Also, it is worth noting that the 42 SBs James sees Ellsbury stealing is in only 125 games.

 

In 150 games that would be 52 SBs. I'm sure there are better splits than "stolen bases per-game" available (I was thinking "per PA" or "per On-base", but I'm tired, it's friday, and I don't feel like doing it, plus, unless a guy is a regular pinch-hitter or role player, the guys on this list start and play as often as the team can allow him to. anyway...

 

To compare that rate to other players in 2007 (with OBP thrown in there, to remind people how rare a combination of speed and OBP is):

 

[table] | Player | G | OBP | SBs | Adj to 150 Games |

| Reyes |160 | .354 | 78 | 73 |

| Pierre | 162| .331 | 64 | 59 |

| H. Ram| 154 | .386 | 51 | 50 |

| Crawford| 143| .355 | 50 | 52 |

| B. Roberts| 156 | .377 | 50 | 48 |

| E. Byrnes | 160 | .353 | 50 | 47 |

| J. Rollins | 162 | .344 | 41 | 38 |

| C. Figgins | 115| .393 | 41 | 53 |

| Ichiro | 161 | .396 | 37 | 34 | [/table]

 

On this list, Ellsbury is roughly the base-stealer that Carl Crawford, or Hanley Ramirez or Chine Figgins are. Those are guys who you don't have to give the green light to, and each is valuable because of their speed. Would people do Crawford + Lester + Masterson + Lowrie for Santana? How about Hanley Ramirez (as we know him now) + Lester + Masterson + Lowrie for Santana?

 

I think some people think I'm crazy. That's fine. The SB totals are nothing outside of the rates he has had in the minors and in college. Neither is the OBP.

 

SBs are not highly-valued in sabermetrics. However, for the best base runners, James regularly rates them higher than those who do not steal bases and that makes sense. The best base stealers in history are guys who can turn most singles into doubles on the basepaths. Guys like Joe Morgan and Rickey Henderson and others did not take away from their team by stealing bags; Ellsbury projects to be the same way, as it looks like he will be in the class of those listed above.

[example1]

Here's the thing' date=' though. The difference btw a 4.75 and 6.3 RC/G is about 25-30 runs depending on playing time. Let's call it 30 for your sake. A reasonable prediction for Lester would be about league average at a 4.50 ERA. Over 180 IP, that's 90 runs, and it's a wash if Santana pitches to a 3.33. Both numbers are probably high, but it shows the value gained is easily erased on the pitching end. [/quote']

 

Do you think there is ANY chance that Santana is not putting up those numbers when he is 32 or 33, after having thrown 220 IPs over the preceeding 8 years straight? I mean, he is SO attractive right now, but he's been worked and worked. The Sox can take it easy with all of their pitchers and maxamize their development.

 

 

But that's not it. Santana typically pitches about 220 IP, so you need to fill the void with more league average or worse pitching, which tips the scale in favor having Santana and Crisp over Ellsbury and Lester.

 

They may fill the void with guys like Masterson and Bowden. Or they could offer the same "we're not giving up our best pieces but you can take your pick otherwise" package--as mentioned by someone else above--for a guy like Bedard or Haren. :dunno: There are SO many options when you have the pieces that others want. The myopic view that Santana is infinitely better than all the other options is what is getting under my skin, not the potential value that Santana will offer, which is plentiful.

 

I think Santana's value, as a one-year rental then Manny-type contract, is risky for a pitcher with lots of IPs under his belt and a handful of our top prospects and value-positive mlb near-regulars.

 

 

When do we get to compare Santana and Crisp vs. Ellsbury, Lester, Masterson and Lowrie, which is the offer if substituting Ellsbury? I think the Sox are pretty sure that Masterson is, at best, a very solid 2-3 type pitcher, and at worst--with this FO--a valuable mid-season trade kind of guy. His frame and tendency toward ground balls, combined with his essentially being FREE, will be attractive to somebody if the Sox feel the need.

 

Also, keep in mind, that James predictions are blind to situation. It's a plug and play formula. I'm much more confident that Crisp can improve and return to a level he's previously hit at than I am that Ellsbury can come up and be a run producer like Jeter is for a whole season.

 

Are you worried that Pedroia is going to come crashing back to earth too, or do you feel reassured that he's here to stay? From everything I've seen, read and intuited, Ellsbury is like Pedroia both in performance and in attitude. He's been a leader on every team he's played on. He was an outstanding player at Oregon State, leading them to the college WS. The fans will absolutely love him, which is not entirely important but certainly preferable to them NOT loving him. He has a charisma that others do not have. Again, it isn't statistically noteworthy, but it is a factor that separates the superstars from the decent-stars.

 

 

 

EDIT: As for James' theory being a 'plug and play' you're right, in a manner of speaking. But any function or repeatable statistical analysis is a plug and play to some degree. It promises greater reliability, and I think James has put a lot of work to increase the validity of the analytical tool. Of course it isn't perfect, and of course it is made to analyze every player, but in retrospect it appears that he predicts pretty well. I don't just dismiss it. If there is anyone whose projections will carry some weight with me, in terms of what the Sox are likely to do, it would be Bill James, a Red Sox employee. I'm sure he's attempted to be as accurate as possible.

[ORS]

Charisma? Stop, you had me at "Hello", tear.

[example1]

Who else would be in that Trade besides Hughes? That would determine in they "blinked".

 

Honestly, them giving up Hughes means to blinked to me. They didn't want to. They weren't comfortable with it, but they grew more comfortable with it as MN held fast, apparently.

 

I would put Hughes in my top 10 pitchers in baseball, combining age, stuff, build and cost control. The kid is sick, and not having to see him pitch for the Yankees, replacing a home-grown, home-town-hero potential player for another import repeats a pattern we've seen before. This would be the biggest prospect/home-grown player the Yankees moved to get an established star. I think Hughes will be more valuable than Soriano was when they moved him.

[example1]

Charisma? Stop' date=' you had me at "Hello", tear.[/quote']

 

That's it?

 

 

 

I know you'd be giving me more s*** if you thought that was the basis of my argument, and there's a reason I put it at the very bottom of the page.

 

If you don't love him for his stats, abilities, speed or cost, you'll love him for his charm.

[TheKilo]

TheKilo:

Crisp has better range.

 

No doubt

 

Good. Glad range plays a bigger factor in defense in CF.

 

So we're talking about a difference of .016 batting average points. I don't need to have you tell me how insignificant that number is.

 

That difference represents Turner field to the Jake. The difference between Fenway and Turner is much more pronounced and should be accounted for in Fenway's projections. Since Jones had a dreadful year for average last year its probably more fair to take into consideration his avg for the period of time that Coco has been in Boston. Coco's averagefor the past two years is .266 which is 88% of the average righty in the park. Jones has an average that is 89% of the average righty at his park .242. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that that is roughly where Coco is now but Jones has scored more runs over those two years and has driven in considerably more runs

 

So wait. Coco hit .268 last season, but because he hit at Fenway, we should look at Andruw Jones' .222 average in Turner Field to be a superior offensive season?

 

Of course he drives in more runs. He f***ing bats cleanup for the Braves.

 

I won't argue this point too much, but then again it has huge potential to be WMP part deux, only it costs us over $10 million per.

 

-It is possible but WMP also had awful defense which further limited his worth

 

Very true. Jones is trending downward offensively. Why invest in that big of a risk?

 

Disagree. If you think Jones is signing for anything less than twice what Crisp makes you're insane.

 

-Twice than what Crisp makes actually qualifies as a bargain based on Jones history

 

Not based off this past season.

 

Is Jones twice the offensive player Crisp is? Heck, he'd have to be more than that because Crisp is the superior defensive CF, one who's mastered Fenway.

 

-Superior by an extremely marginal amount - a .998 fielding percentage for Crisp and .995 for Jones.

 

Fielding percentage may be the worst stat you could use to measure defense.

 

Coco Crisp - 8.5 Win Shares defensively

Andruw Jones - 7.5 Win Shares defensively

 

Each were at 16 win shares last season. Who's the better deal?

 

Between Jones at $10 mil+ and Crisp at $5, I'll take Crisp at 5.

 

-The Sox wouldn't just waive Crisp. You would assume that he would be traded for Prospect X or Prospects X and Y. So that may be closer to worth it

 

What this also isn't taking into account in this comparison is that if you put Jones behind Manny it will affect how pitchers pitch to Manny. Crisp value is mainly his defense and he isn't making anyone else in the lineup better for his presence.

 

So a guy who strikes out 24% of the time strikes fear in the hearts of pitchers? A guy who hits 26 homers and still only puts up an OPS+ of 88?

 

Lastly

 

I want to join your fantasy league because I've got a couple of deals for you.

 

Manny Ramirez Win Shares - 15

Coco Crisp Win Shares - 16