Johan Santana

[Jayhawk Bill]

JHB, normally I don't take issues with your way of thinking, but on what planet is Santana not a good pitcher and an HoF lock?

 

ERA+ since 2002:

 

Santana - 149, 148, 182, 155, 161, 130

Mussina - 109, 129, 98, 96, 129, 87

 

If Santana is "not that good", who is?

 

I checked Johan Santana's most comparable pitchers through age 28 at Baseball Reference. Guess who shows up sixth?

 

Name (Similarity score)

 

Tim Hudson (949)

Roy Oswalt (940)

John Candelaria (935)

Juan Pizarro (931)

Bob Welch (929)

Mike Mussina (928)

Kevin Appier (927)

Jack McDowell (921)

Kevin Millwood (915)

Sid Fernandez (915)

 

Something else to note: none of the ten pitchers most comparable to Johan Santana at age 28 have yet made it into the Hall of Fame. A whole bunch burned out early; a few are still active.

 

I've got to run, but I wanted to give you a quick answer. More later...but I'm not as far off base as you seemed to speculate.

[TheKilo]

So hold up...

 

I don't know how you feel about Clay as a prospect. I've been assuming this whole time that you are as high on him as most, but I detect some skepticism?

 

If you don't think he can carry the workload of a SP, do you think it would be worth it to package him in a trade? I mean, all I know is that you're pretty unimpressed by most of the speculation flying around.

 

I think his frame is much less questionable than people think. He is listed at 6'3 190lbs, its not unrealistic to anticipate him coming into camp at around 200 lbs. Either way, he should be able to handle the workload of a close to full major league season unless theres something I'm missing.

 

I think Clay is as close to an untouchable as the Sox have.

 

I don't take it as gospel that he will increase his innings load by over 20% next season, because I don't want to risk injury. Yes, I know there's injury risk with all pitchers, but younger ones run an even higher risk. With the depth the Sox will start out with in 2008, I would prefer the Sox start Buchholz in AAA because I feel he can be a difference maker in October, should the Sox get there.

 

What have we learned from Francona's managing style? It's a marathon, not a sprint? I hope they take the same tone with Buchholz. I'm interested in him being effective in 2008, sure, but it's most important in '09 and beyond when depth isn't as strong as it is now.

 

If that's "babying him", then I guess I'm babying him.

[TheKilo]

Yes, straight up would be something worth looking into. However, I still think that a few years later I might be wondering 'what if' about Ellsbury, similar to Hanley, except that Hanley gave the Sox something that, practically and aesthetically was enormously important for them (ace level, shut-down SP in his prime). They viewed that situation the same way the Yankees view the Santana situation. They would REALLY help themselves by getting him, if at least for the short term.

 

I would never say you can have too much of those #1 guys, but they signed Dice-K for that reason as well, and after his first season I think there is plenty of reason to suspect that he will be able to handle a #2 spot. Lester was likely projected a few years back as having #3 stuff, and as a hard throwing 23 year old lefty I think he still does. To the Sox's benefit, they developed another 23 year old SP who was better. Buchholz will ultimately challenge Dice-K for the #2 spot.

 

In short, the Sox do not need to get Santana and they could have a Hanley Ramirez type player on their team currently, ready to start in CF and leadoff against righties. Either way, it's a victory as far as I'm concerned if its a 1:1.

 

I really, really think you overvalue Ellsbury as a prospect.

[BoSox21]

If you can get Santana without having to give up Buchholz, you gotta do it. To me, that's all it comes down to

[jacksonianmarch]

I checked Johan Santana's most comparable pitchers through age 28 at Baseball Reference. Guess who shows up sixth?

 

Name (Similarity score)

 

Tim Hudson (949)

Roy Oswalt (940)

John Candelaria (935)

Juan Pizarro (931)

Bob Welch (929)

Mike Mussina (928)

Kevin Appier (927)

Jack McDowell (921)

Kevin Millwood (915)

Sid Fernandez (915)

 

Something else to note: none of the ten pitchers most comparable to Johan Santana at age 28 have yet made it into the Hall of Fame. A whole bunch burned out early; a few are still active.

 

I've got to run, but I wanted to give you a quick answer. More later...but I'm not as far off base as you seemed to speculate.

 

Comparability score is useless.

 

The fact remains, for the past 4 yrs, he has been the best pitcher in baseball. That is a non-disputable fact. 2 CY's, and to be honest with you, he should have 3. If he played on a team with a better offense, he'd have won 20 games for 3 consecutive season. AND, he is 28 yrs old right now. You have the opportunity to have another 5-6 yrs of prime from a pitcher who has dominated for 4 seasons already. The idea that he isnt all that good is assinine and ridiculous to begin with.

[jacksonianmarch]

To put things in even more perspective, you would say that Beckett just had an awesome season, right?

 

Beckett's WHIP from last yr would be a career worst for Santana by 0.07. Beckett's K/9IP would also be a career worst for Santana by 0.55 per 9. His walk total from last yr, which was a total aberration from his previous seasons, is where Santana typically sits, a shade under 2 per 9. Beckett's H/9IP would be a career worst by nearly a hit per 9 IP. And since he became a full time SP in 2004, his post season ERA in 3 starts is nearly a half a run LOWER than the beast slayer Beckett's. The idea that Santana "isnt that good" is ridiculous.

[NateGrey]

CHARLEY WALTERS: Red Sox take lead in race to obtain Twins pitcher Johan Santana

 

 

 

 

A little birdie says the Boston Red Sox have become the favorite in the Johan Santana trade sweepstakes.

 

The Twins would receive four players for the Twins' two-time Cy Young Award winner, including center fielder Coco Crisp, 28.

 

Others would be shortstop prospect Jed Lowry, 23; left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, 23; and right-handed pitcher Justin Masterson, 22.

 

Before a deal could be made, the Red Sox would have to have time to negotiate a contract extension with Santana, 28, who can become a free agent after next season and could have a market value as high as $150 million over six years.

 

Lowry did not play in the major leagues this year but is considered ready and is a good-fielding shortstop who also can hit. Lowry had a slugging percentage of .500 at Class AA and Class AAA this year.

 

Lester made a comeback from non-Hodgkin's lymphoma a year ago and is said to be cancer-free.

 

Masterson, 6 feet 6, 245 pounds, had 59 strikeouts in 58 innings at Class AA Portland.

 

The New York Yankees don't have the prospects available who the Twins figure have a reasonable chance to play in the major leagues by the end of 2008.

 

> http://www.twincities.com/walters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[jacksonianmarch]

That offer is a BS offer IMO. The only way the sox put themselves ahead of the game is with the inclusion of Ellsbury or Buchholz. That is the only way they elevate their game above the pack and force us to add to the pot. Unless the yankees are totally committed to hanging onto the "big 3" and have no interest in dealing any of our higher level players, I call BS on their reported deal.

 

That being said, I wouldnt doubt if the sox became the frontrunners. But I'd expect either one or both of Buchholz and Ellsbury to be in the package. You arent getting Santana without one of them going the other way.

[BoSox21]

lol, if we get Santana without giving up Ellsbury or Buchholz, I will do a Papelbon jig in my underwear down my street

[ORS]

That's a strong offer, no matter what the Yankee spin-meister here says. It's a perfect fit for them in terms of what they need and just dealt away. What trumps the Yankee deal is the fact that they just traded away their SS, and the Yankees don't have a MIF with a projectable bat to offer. The '05 draft might have increased dividends. Nice.

[MANNYHOF24]

That would be incredible if we were able to get Santana without giving up Buchholz or Ellsbury. This deal really does make sense for both teams though. The Twins can't afford Santana, they need a CF, and a SS. They also get two pretty darn good arms in Lester and Masterson. Let's not forget that Lester has great stuff and with a healthy offseason there is no reason to think that he can't be as good as he was projected to be two years ago. I think that this deal could happen.

[soxfan17881]

Sox options to get Santana

Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Jon Lester

OR

Clay Buchholz, Coco Crisp and Jed Lowrie

 

Yankees options

Robinson Cano and Phil Hughes

OR

Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jose Tabata

 

 

i wouldnt deal ellsbury, but the Buchholz deal would be real tempting

 

I would do the Clay Buchholz, Coco Crisp and Jed Lowrie deal, but no way should we part with Jacoby. And certainly not Youkilis!

[Jayhawk Bill]

Comparability score is useless.

 

The fact remains, for the past 4 yrs, he has been the best pitcher in baseball. That is a non-disputable fact. 2 CY's, and to be honest with you, he should have 3. If he played on a team with a better offense, he'd have won 20 games for 3 consecutive season. AND, he is 28 yrs old right now. You have the opportunity to have another 5-6 yrs of prime from a pitcher who has dominated for 4 seasons already. The idea that he isnt all that good is assinine and ridiculous to begin with.

 

Comparability score was designed by Bill James. I called him to get a response*; he says that your opinion is useless.

 

The fact remains, for the past four years, he's only been the best pitcher in one league--not necessarily both--by professional opinion two out of four years. He hasn't swept the Cy Young Award four years straight: he's won it twice, 2004 and 2006. In 2005 he finished third in the AL Cy Young voting. In 2007, our most recent data point, he finished in a four-way tie for fifth with exactly one third-place vote.

 

But is the issue run support, as you suggest? Let's check stats:

 

Year / Santana's Run Support / (Difference from AL average)

 

2004 5.20 (-.19)

2005 4.47 (-.29)

2006 5.23 (+.26)

2007 4.44 (-.46)

 

Certainly Santana does better in Cy Young Award voting when he gets more run support. But over the four-year stretch you're citing, his run support is, overall, only a couple of tenths of a run below AL average. That's a trivial difference, accounting for only a win or so each year, not another four per year.

 

But while we're checking strength of support, shouldn't we check strength of opposition?

 

Here's where Santana ranked among AL pitchers with 150+ IP regarding quality of opposition batters, using OPS as the metric:

 

2004 40th of 40

2005 42nd of 49

2006 9th of 41

2007 19th of 44

 

OK, this kinda puts things into perspective. In two of Santana's three seasons contending for the AL Cy Young Award, he faced bottom-of-the-barrel AL Central hitting. In 2006 the AL Central hitting got good--but Santana had better-than-average run support that year, too. In 2007 Santana was a good pitcher, but not really a Cy Young contender--and that was while facing average, not strong, opposition hitting.

 

From there you move on to suggest that a pitcher who's just 28 and has "dominated" for four seasons will be as good for another 5-6 more years. That's incorrect. There are those who claim that pitchers peak very young, in their early 20's: certainly a great number of Cy Young winners were under 26 years of age. Other analysts claim that good pitchers peak as late as age 28. In no case, however, does any professional suggest that a pitcher's peak is 29-34. Even avoiding injury, the best is almost certainly past, not yet to come.

 

But let's look at that injury thing. Here's a graph from BP regarding career-threatening injury frequency by age for MLB pitchers, along with some words of explanation:

 

To create an actuarial backbone for our study, we applied the same approach that is used to calculate attrition rate in the PECOTA forecasts. Attrition rate describes the percentage of pitchers who experience a decline in their innings pitched of at least 50 percent. Such a dramatic decline will not always indicate that a serious injury has occurred--it can also reflect demotion, retirement, and so on. However, by placing a few restrictions on our dataset, we can serve to limit these cases, and use attrition rate as a reasonable proxy for catastrophic injury.

 

In order to be included in the study, a pitcher needed to have pitched at least 150 innings in the previous season, with a park-adjusted ERA no more than 10 percent worse than his league average. That is, our study was focused on pitchers who had already pitched at least one effective season in the major leagues, and who were likely to have every opportunity to do so again in the absence of significant injury. All pitchers from 1946-2002 were considered, with innings pitched totals prorated over a 162-game schedule. The chart below tracks attrition rate at different ages throughout a pitcher's career.

 

Even for a successful, established pitcher, the risk of catastrophic injury is meaningfully high throughout his career, almost certainly at least 10 percent in any given season. However, the risk does appear to be to some degree dependent on a pitcher's age. For the very young pitchers in our study--ages 21 and 22--the risk of injury is significantly higher, in excess of 20 percent. Injury rate then drops dramatically as a pitcher matures physically, reaching its lowest point at roughly age 24, while rising gradually throughout the remainder of his career.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/20030226_01_silver.gif

 

Over a seven-year contract, Johan Santana will face roughly a 15% shot of an injury that will end his career or substantially decrease his value each season. Assuming 85% per year, let's look at the cumulative chance he'll avoid serious injury:

 

Year Chance

1 85%

2 72%

3 61%

4 52%

5 44%

6 38%

7 32%

 

This isn't just decline with age as he passes his prime--this is the chance that his arm will be seriously injured. Consider decline with age as well, and the chances that he'll be "the best pitcher in baseball" or "dominate" for another 5-6 years look very slim.

 

Especially given that he wasn't even a Cy Young contender in 2007, and that his fastball has dropped to 92 mph. He doesn't look like an inner-circle HOF pitcher any more. He still looks good--he looks like he'll go, maybe, 31-17 over the next two years with a 3.50 ERA in 410 IP.

 

Just as Mike Mussina did at ages 29 and 30.

 

 

* OK, I didn't really call Bill James. I was using absurdity to make a point two ways: first, the language that you direct at me is returned to you; second, there's considerable hubris involved with calling another poster's objective professional reference "useless," with the implication that one's own amateur opinion is better. If you disagree with me, fine, do so--but there's no need to insult either Bill James or me.

[Beckett95]

Despite the exclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury, Charlie Walters says the Red Sox have the lead in the Johan Santana sweepstakes. The package would be Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Jon Lester, and Justin Masterson.

 

if the twins are really willing to accept that, make it a done deal, asap.

[mosox]

I like that deal. DO IT!!!

[BSN07]

That offer is a BS offer IMO. The only way the sox put themselves ahead of the game is with the inclusion of Ellsbury or Buchholz. That is the only way they elevate their game above the pack and force us to add to the pot. Unless the yankees are totally committed to hanging onto the "big 3" and have no interest in dealing any of our higher level players, I call BS on their reported deal.

 

That being said, I wouldnt doubt if the sox became the frontrunners. But I'd expect either one or both of Buchholz and Ellsbury to be in the package. You arent getting Santana without one of them going the other way.

 

Jacko, I just wanted to point out that this is the same guy that has been saying all eek the Garza was going to TB and Young was coming to MInny with possible other players involved. Have to give him a little credit atleast.

 

I'd do that deal in a second too, it all depends if someone sweetens the pot before the Sox can pull it off.

[das11209]

Yankee board is all freaking out with this rumor.

 

I think this one may be too good to be true.

[mosox]

WEEI says a Minneapolis TV station is reporting that Theo is pressing the Twins to do the deal before the GM meetings next week.

[jacksonianmarch]

Of course he is. The deal is about 25 cents on the dollar.

[schillingouttheks]

Holy s***. I just heard that on WEEI too. Perhaps this is legit?

 

Santana

Beckett

Matsuzaka

Schilling

Wakefield/Buchholz

 

AND Ellsbury in CF? DO IT!

 

We have Lugo for the next 3 seasons anyway. Lowrie would be sitting in AAA waiting... this deal makes sense for what they just gave away too, just as ORS said. It's a strong offer and probably one of the best ones that they'll end up seeing. Maybe there's some cash thrown in here as well, as the Sox have that luxury.

 

All I can say is that there better be an extension to Santana if this deal is to go through. Lord knows the Sox of all teams can afford what he's asking.

[Hammer]

this deal may just be the greatest xmas present theo ever gave to red sox nation....can you imagine a more frightening 1-2 combo than santana and beckett????

you can almost hear the moans and growns coming from the big apple right now...

 

stay tuned!

[jacksonianmarch]

I will say this, if this rumor is true, then

 

A. Theo should get a new clause in his contract of a BJ daily from a Playboy Bunny

B. Hank Steinbreen and Cashman should really look at their options

 

If you guys offer up Ellsbury and Buchholz to get Santana, then I'd push back from the table and say, you guys get him, congrats. But not beating an offer of

 

Lester- A lefty pitcher who has never limited his baserunners. With a career MLB WHIP> 1.5 and a career MiLB WHIP of >1.3, what do they expect? Add to that the fact that he just recovered from cancer (which I absolutely applaud him for), what do they expect out of him? He's a 3 at best and right now, might not even be fit to be a back end guy.

 

Lowrie- a solid yet unspectacular MIF prospect who will likely settle in at 2b.

 

Masterson- a short arsenal starter who will most likely slot in as a middle relief guy.

 

And Coco- the disappointing, switch hitting solid D CFer who is controlled for 2 yrs at 5 mil per.

 

This has the makings of a raping. I just dont see how we dont trump that.

 

I think that Kennedy's track record in the MiLB and his solid debut shows that he limits BR's better than Lester and should be considered a bit more highly than the lefty.

 

ORS is right, we dont have an IF equivalent for Lowrie. At the same time, that shouldnt be a deal breaker.

 

If we offer up Horne, we'll be offering a better pitcher than Masterson and a guy who projects to the rotation.

 

Melky>Coco, I dont think there is much of an argument there. Younger, better arm, marginally better bat right now, cost controlled at minimum bigger ceiling.

 

And then the opportunity to throw in a guy like Tabata or AJax who project to be more dynamic than a guy like Lowrie.

 

Even without throwing in Hughes, we have a package that should beat the proposed deal above. Hence why I have a feeling that this is either BS, or the package is incorrect. I also wouldnt be too surprised if this is a "leak" from the twins to try and up the ante from NY.

[ORS]

Melky>Coco' date=' I dont think there is much of an argument there. Younger, better arm, marginally better bat right now, cost controlled at minimum bigger ceiling.[/quote']

Total argument there. Melky's D is suited for a corner. He just doesn't have the range for CF. He was a bottom 10 CF last year by several metrics. Coco was top 5 (by several). They hit about the same, so do the math.

 

Bat = Bat

Glove >> Glove

 

You are picking the guy on the right. Why?

[cam780]

Yes, straight up would be something worth looking into. However, I still think that a few years later I might be wondering 'what if' about Ellsbury, similar to Hanley, except that Hanley gave the Sox something that, practically and aesthetically was enormously important for them (ace level, shut-down SP in his prime). They viewed that situation the same way the Yankees view the Santana situation. They would REALLY help themselves by getting him, if at least for the short term.

 

I would never say you can have too much of those #1 guys, but they signed Dice-K for that reason as well, and after his first season I think there is plenty of reason to suspect that he will be able to handle a #2 spot. Lester was likely projected a few years back as having #3 stuff, and as a hard throwing 23 year old lefty I think he still does. To the Sox's benefit, they developed another 23 year old SP who was better. Buchholz will ultimately challenge Dice-K for the #2 spot.

 

In short, the Sox do not need to get Santana and they could have a Hanley Ramirez type player on their team currently, ready to start in CF and leadoff against righties. Either way, it's a victory as far as I'm concerned if its a 1:1.

 

Ellsbury doesn't project to hit for the same power that Hanley does and that is a big factor in comparing the two and I remember there was alot of questions about dealing Ramirez. The question is would you do the same thing over? I would because we have a second ring to show for it. Including Ellsbury in a deal for Santana is doing that deal over again and we have a kid like Kalish who if he lives up to his potential (big if understandably) is actually that Hanley Ramirez type

 

Young does nothing for their CF spot' date=' though. And if you figure that the sox had Jacoby to offer while the yankees had Melky, I think that position is a potential strength for the sox in negotiations. When you talk about pitching, I dont think the sox have the opportunity to match up.[/quote']

 

I don't think that Young addresses center but Pridie does in a year or two. I think the Yanks trio has a higher ceiling but I think the Sox might have more of a willingness to deal two of their pitchers then the Yanks given the Sox depth of their system and the quality of their major leaguers.

 

For the record, I make that deal that was reported in a heart beat . It probably wouldn't be well received by Twins fans but that deal gives the team stability and a solid foundation. Lester and Masterson could be strong 2's and with Liriano the rotation would be set. Lowrie projects as an OBP machine and can play short or 2nd which is a major whole for the Twins. Pedroia blocks 2nd and the Sox system is deep in SS prospects so he would be an extra piece for us. Crisp could hold the fort for a year and be dealt again next offseason if Pridie is ready.

 

I know Baseball Prospectus isn't God but comparing Cabrera, Horne and Hughes to that deal you're looking at a major-league ready outfielder and a major-league ready prospect which is something matched by the Sox offer - Hughes has a higher ceiling but he is also more injury prone (while there is a chance of recurrence - I am not counting Lester's cancer battle because its a different beast) and Lester is also is left handed which I don't think adds much but has to be consider the slightest bit, the Sox offer then includes two four star prospects and the Yanks only one.

 

On the surface, because it doesn't include Ellsbury or Buchholz, the deal looks weak for the Twins but it includes quite a bounty of talent that is the equivalent if not slightly more than what we gave up for Beckett.

 

I personally don't think that this offer gets it done but again replace Crisp with Ellsbury and pull off Masterson and I still do it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Total argument there. Melky's D is suited for a corner. He just doesn't have the range for CF. He was a bottom 10 CF last year by several metrics. Coco was top 5 (by several). They hit about the same, so do the math.

 

Bat = Bat

Glove >> Glove

 

You are picking the guy on the right. Why?

 

I am sure you can find metrics to fit your argument when it comes to defense and I wont deny that Coco has more range. But Melky has a better arm, is 5 yrs younger, and showed more consistency with the bat last yr. Melky was hitting over .300 going into September, bro. Coco was awful all but 2 months of the yr. Regardless, 5 yrs is a big difference when it comes to a CFer and the idea of him being at league minimum to start makes him a much more attractive option.

[cam780]

Also worth mentioning but don't you think MLB sort of would like to see Santana on the Sox for their trip to Japan. The best starter in America paired with Japan's favorite son? Not that I think that will influence anything.

 

Also, I think that if the deal goes through with the Sox. The Yanks follow up with a splash. I'd think that Hughes / Cabrera / Horne gets them Peavy or Haren. Its going to come down to the wire though. You have to think that Twins really want Cano the same way they want Ellsbury.

 

I'll also say this much - I'd love to see Santana in Boston but if he's not going to be in Boston and goes to NY the rivalry will be kicked back up to the same level it was in '03 and '04 and the last week of the season next year will be very interesting.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ellsbury doesn't project to hit for the same power that Hanley does and that is a big factor in comparing the two and I remember there was alot of questions about dealing Ramirez. The question is would you do the same thing over? I would because we have a second ring to show for it. Including Ellsbury in a deal for Santana is doing that deal over again and we have a kid like Kalish who if he lives up to his potential (big if understandably) is actually that Hanley Ramirez type.

 

I find it interesting that many sox fans seem to consider Ellsbury a sure bet. And while I think the guy is a high energy, high ceiling kind of guy, you really know not what you will get from him next season. And the fact that your backup right now is at least defensively savvy in Crisp, you wont totally f*** yourself if you deal off Ellsbury. And you are correct on the power aspect. Hanley was always considered strong, the question was whether or not he would grow into his power. Ellsbury is not considered to be of that ilk and will likely have a couple of career yrs in the double digits of HRs, but aside from that is most likely slated for single digits, with a ton of legged out doubles, triples and steals.

 

I don't think that Young addresses center but Pridie does in a year or two.

This is true, but Pridie isnt really a cant miss guy. At the same time, he is intriguing enough to make things interesting.

 

I think the Yanks trio has a higher ceiling but I think the Sox might have more of a willingness to deal two of their pitchers then the Yanks given the Sox depth of their system and the quality of their major leaguers.

 

I agree that the sox would be willing to deal a few pitchers, but the fact that their best MiLB pitcher is not in the mix makes this puzzling. A package headlined pitching wise by Lester and Masterson is eminently beatable. Kennedy/Horne for one, and that is without Hughes being in the mix.

 

For the record, I make that deal that was reported in a heart beat . It probably wouldn't be well received by Twins fans but that deal gives the team stability and a solid foundation. Lester and Masterson could be strong 2's and with Liriano the rotation would be set.

 

Lester and Masterson project as 2's? In what universe? Lester will be a back rotation kinda guy unless he gets his location down. WHIP's>1.5 kinda suck and he seems to be pretty good at putting them up. Masterson has been projected by damn near every scouting site as being a middle reliever. Unless he develops his change to a point to where it is as useful as his fastball and breaking ball, that projection will likely hold true.

 

Lowrie projects as an OBP machine and can play short or 2nd which is a major whole for the Twins.

Lowrie does project as an OBP kind of player, but I dont think the projection states that he will be a MLB SS. That being said, the Twins 2b sucks too and I think Lowrie ends up there if dealt.

 

Pedroia blocks 2nd and the Sox system is deep in SS prospects so he would be an extra piece for us.

No issue there about Pedroia. And the sox system is deep in SS prospects, but they are mostly lower level players right now.

 

Crisp could hold the fort for a year and be dealt again next offseason if Pridie is ready.

When you are dealing the best pitcher in baseball during his prime, do you really want a solid yet unspectacular deal coming back. A guy who can "hold the fort" until another guy develops? A pitcher who may or may not end up starting? A pitcher who may or may not find the plate enough to be anything more than a Casey Fossum redux? An IFer who might be slated for SS, but is better suited as a 2b? This kinda doesnt make sense on a bunch of levels. Either Hank pulled back from the table, the twins are asking for more from the yankees out of spite, or this link is full of BS.

 

I know Baseball Prospectus isn't God but comparing Cabrera, Horne and Hughes to that deal you're looking at a major-league ready outfielder and a major-league ready prospect which is something matched by the Sox offer - Hughes has a higher ceiling but he is also more injury prone (while there is a chance of recurrence - I am not counting Lester's cancer battle because its a different beast) and Lester is also is left handed which I don't think adds much but has to be consider the slightest bit, the Sox offer then includes two four star prospects and the Yanks only one.

 

So Lester's arm issues this yr dont factor in. And the idea that he had a life threatening disease that may or may not come back doesnt factor into his health? Making an argument including health and Jon Lester immediately invalidates the point. As much as I respect Lester and think he is one hell of a battler and a human being, when you strip away the emotion, you have as big a health liability as there is in the game today. And 4 star prospects to one? Is that list updated? So Kennedy, Tabata, Horne and Melky includes no 4 star prospects? The MiLB pitcher of the yr, the yankee top position prospect, the EL pitcher of the yr and a 23 yr old starting switch hitting CFer from the yankees all pale to the package above? I dont see it, but we will see in the coming weeks.

 

On the surface, because it doesn't include Ellsbury or Buchholz, the deal looks weak for the Twins but it includes quite a bounty of talent that is the equivalent if not slightly more than what we gave up for Beckett.

 

I personally don't think that this offer gets it done but again replace Crisp with Ellsbury and pull off Masterson and I still do it.

 

On the surface, the middle, the bottom, the sides and from a distance, this package is short. Replace Crisp with Ellsbury or Lester with Buchholz and you have a player. But like I said before, I think this is either a tactic to drag more out of NY, is BS, or is typical Yankee negotiation tactics from other teams.

[ORS]

The arm vs range equation isn't a wash though. The benefit of much better range pays more dividends than the benefit of a much better arm over a season. And let's be honest here, Melky will make the min for exactly one more year. After that he's in his arb years so the money side of it diminishes significantly. Also, the Twins do have a good looking CF prospect, name escapes me right now, who's about 2 years away. Coco fills the gap at a modest price and provides them the tools that fit the organizational philosophy better than Cabrera. The Twins value defense pretty high, and Coco rates well. Melky doesn't.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also worth mentioning but don't you think MLB sort of would like to see Santana on the Sox for their trip to Japan. The best starter in America paired with Japan's favorite son? Not that I think that will influence anything.

 

Also, I think that if the deal goes through with the Sox. The Yanks follow up with a splash. I'd think that Hughes / Cabrera / Horne gets them Peavy or Haren. Its going to come down to the wire though. You have to think that Twins really want Cano the same way they want Ellsbury.

 

I'll also say this much - I'd love to see Santana in Boston but if he's not going to be in Boston and goes to NY the rivalry will be kicked back up to the same level it was in '03 and '04 and the last week of the season next year will be very interesting.

 

 

Selig wants parody. And a sox deal for Santana makes them favorites to win the WS for the next 4 or 5 yrs.

[jacksonianmarch]

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2007/11/29/yo-yo-johan/

 

the BH clubhouse insider isnt really opening eyes here. But it sounds like we will go into the winter meetings without a deal in place. That means lots of teams will be vying for Santana.