Miguel Cabrera

[AirPantapas]

Hmm to stay on topic a bit

 

I've been a Miguel Cabera fan since 03, I think he is the type of player that you would trade your top prospects for. However I have heard some say that once he gets that contract hes going to not work as hard, Im also concered about his weight.

 

Also why was he moved to 3B from LF, He is a much better LF than 3B

[scaffolds]

According the Marlins this morning, Arod isn't on their plans for 2008.

[BoSox21]

According the Marlins this morning' date=' Arod isn't on their plans for 2008.[/quote']

 

just a general comment but over the last few days, I've heard a lot of media outlets making a big deal about every potential suitor for A-Rod coming out and saying they aren't interested. my question is, why would any team come out and say they're interested in him? it makes no sense negotiations-wise

[BSN07]

just a general comment but over the last few days' date=' I've heard a lot of media outlets making a big deal about every potential suitor for A-Rod coming out and saying they aren't interested. my question is, why would any team come out and say they're interested in him? it makes no sense negotiations-wise[/quote']

 

 

Yes telling AROD and Boras you want him on your team is just plain dumb. If you say that Boras will have you by the short and hairys...

[TheKilo]

Yanks appear to be not interested in Miggy:

 

Things may have changed:

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7416282

 

The Yankees are likely to pursue Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera, but the Red Sox and especially the Dodgers appear to match up better with the Marlins. The Dodgers could offer Matt Kemp, satisfying the Marlins' need for a center fielder. The Red Sox could offer Jacoby Ellsbury, the Yankees Melky Cabrera. The problem for the Yankees is that they remain unwilling to part with a top young pitcher such as Phil Hughes. The Angels also figure to be in the mix for Cabrera . . .

[TheKilo]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/marlins/content/sports/epaper/2007/11/07/1107marlins.html

 

In a deal with Boston, the Marlins would want center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury along with one of two pitchers, Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester - an asking price the Red Sox likely would deem too steep.

 

Ellsbury + Lester for Cabrera?

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Ellsbury + Lester + two lower level prospects for Cabrera + Willis

 

sounds familiar

 

Ramirez + Sanchez + two lower level prospects for Beckett + Lowell + Mota

 

The Marlins have worries about Miguel Cabrera and his weight just like they had worries with Josh Beckett and his arm/blisters

[Jayhawk Bill]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/marlins/content/sports/epaper/2007/11/07/1107marlins.html

 

 

 

Ellsbury + Lester for Cabrera?

 

Too steep. I wouldn't do Ellsbury for Cabrera straight up, given Miggy's weight and the horrific nature of his defense.

 

Crisp and Lester? Crisp, Lester and Hansen? Yes--but "cost-controlled" for the Marlins has a different meaning than cost-controlled for any other team in MLB, and the salaries would probably be too steep.

[a700hitter]

Too steep. I wouldn't do Ellsbury for Cabrera straight up, given Miggy's weight and the horrific nature of his defense.

I don't think you'd have to worry about that. I don't think you would get him for Ellsbury straight up. You are a stat junkie. How many guys have had numbers like Miggy at his age?

[Jayhawk Bill]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/marlins/content/sports/epaper/2007/11/07/1107marlins.html

 

 

 

Ellsbury + Lester for Cabrera?

 

I don't think you'd have to worry about that. I don't think you would get him for Ellsbury straight up. You are a stat junkie. How many guys have had numbers like Miggy at his age?

 

Why would I undertake research for a guy who just called me a junkie? <_>

 

I expect, as you state, that Florida wouldn't let him go for Ellsbury. But two arb years of Miggy is less valuable than three pre-arb years and three more arb years of Ellsbury.

[Mr Crunchy]

tony c had those power #s at that age but not the all around skills that may or may not be getting wasted.

early success can lead to problems down the line

the boy is 24 and their already discussing his downfall

i dont know if thats the spin of other managers or if girardi saw it or what but to have this bad a rep at 24 while still achieving is troubling

[jacksonianmarch]

Girardi wants him. The problem has been with management this past yr. He apparently showed up late or skipped meetings. And then, he has put on 60-70 pounds since breaking into the league. That sounds like a work ethic problem that will become tougher to overcome once his body slows down.

[CrespoBlows]

I don't think you'd have to worry about that. I don't think you would get him for Ellsbury straight up. You are a stat junkie. How many guys have had numbers like Miggy at his age?

 

How does looking at someone's physical problems, make them a stat junkie? Isn't that 100% the opposite? Something a scout would say?

 

Oh, remind us how Mike Gallego did in postseason? How about BC Youkilis for the other-worldly Helton?

 

Let's trade Lester, Delcarmen, Coco, and Hansen for Andruw Jones!

[Taliesin]

This isn't a stat junkie perspective. I know what I see. They project Miggy at 24 as most likely a DH or 1B in very few years time. We don't need another DH. I've seen Mo Vaughn. The rumblings are so much rumor as to his work ethic, but you can't argue w/ his waistline. It's sabermetric in it's proportions. Yeah..5 tool guy. Also an injury risk waiting to happen. His success has come in the NL. Let the MFY's make another asinine decision and leave the Harrington moves in the past. No thank you. We have a superstar in the making. Get back to me in a year when we are all applauding that we didn't make a move for a bloated overpriced albatross and have a CF for the ages. I'll stand by my position and if I'm wrong...I'm wrong. But, I ain't.

[example1]

This isn't a stat junkie perspective. I know what I see. They project Miggy at 24 as most likely a DH or 1B in very few years time. We don't need another DH. I've seen Mo Vaughn. The rumblings are so much rumor as to his work ethic' date=' but you can't argue w/ his waistline. It's sabermetric in it's proportions. Yeah..5 tool guy. Also an injury risk waiting to happen. His success has come in the NL. Let the MFY's make another asinine decision and leave the Harrington moves in the past. No thank you. We have a superstar in the making. Get back to me in a year when we are all applauding that we didn't make a move for a bloated overpriced albatross and have a CF for the ages. I'll stand by my position and if I'm wrong...I'm wrong. But, I ain't.[/quote']

 

As far as I know, the Sox are in the market for a 3B, and if they can't get one they would be okay with getting a 1B and moving Youkilis who is a good fielder to 3B. If Cabrera were that guy then I wouldn't complain.

 

I would make Lester the centerpiece of the deal, and throw in Ryan Kalish and maybe Hansen or Bard or some other high-upside/mediocre production guys that could potentially thrive in another organization or with more growth/experience.

[TheKilo]

As far as I know, the Sox are in the market for a 3B, and if they can't get one they would be okay with getting a 1B and moving Youkilis who is a good fielder to 3B. If Cabrera were that guy then I wouldn't complain.

 

I would make Lester the centerpiece of the deal, and throw in Ryan Kalish and maybe Hansen or Bard or some other high-upside/mediocre production guys that could potentially thrive in another organization or with more growth/experience.

 

You're not getting Cabrera without parting with one of Ellsbury or Buchholz.

[TheKilo]

This isn't a stat junkie perspective. I know what I see. They project Miggy at 24 as most likely a DH or 1B in very few years time.

 

Who is this "they" you speak of? And besides, if he moves to 1B, you move Youk to 3B.

 

We don't need another DH. I've seen Mo Vaughn. The rumblings are so much rumor as to his work ethic, but you can't argue w/ his waistline.

 

You don't think the Sox would make note of this? They just put fitness incentives in Schilling's contract. They have the programs in place to shed the pounds.

 

One advantage for Cabrera over Lowell is time. Cabrera can lose the weight but Lowell can't turn back the clock.

 

It's sabermetric in it's proportions. Yeah..5 tool guy. Also an injury risk waiting to happen. His success has come in the NL.

 

Ignoring the sabermetric dig...isn't Ortiz an injury risk waiting to happen? What about Manny?

 

Let the MFY's make another asinine decision and leave the Harrington moves in the past. No thank you. We have a superstar in the making. Get back to me in a year when we are all applauding that we didn't make a move for a bloated overpriced albatross and have a CF for the ages. I'll stand by my position and if I'm wrong...I'm wrong. But, I ain't.

 

So basically what I'm hearing is don't trade for a generational talent if you can do so without giving up your best prospect. Gotcha.

 

[table]Year|AVG|HR|RBI|SLG|OPS|OPS+

2005|.323|33|116|.561|.946|151

2006|.339|26|114|.568|.998|159

2007|.320|34|119|.565|.966|150[/table]

 

And to think....he'd be cost controlled for two seasons before you had to sign him to an extension.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kilo, most scouts and baseball pundits agree with talies here and I agree also. Cabrera is a terrible 3b to start with. He is also a terrible LFer. And will probably be a poor 1b.

 

That being said, there is no doubting Miguel Cabrera's been a disruption this past season. He was nearly suspended for showing up late.

 

And can anyone doubt the weight this guy has put on? He's 23, so this isnt like Jeter or ARod putting on muscle over their yrs as their age creeps into the thirties. And in looking at him, the guy has put on a ton of fat.

 

http://images.art.com/images/products/large/10131000/10131165.jpg

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2007/06/02/AikPXRdh.jpg

 

At the rate he is going, he will be a 1b or DH.

[YAZMAN]

This isn't a stat junkie perspective. I know what I see. They project Miggy at 24 as most likely a DH or 1B in very few years time. We don't need another DH. I've seen Mo Vaughn. The rumblings are so much rumor as to his work ethic' date=' but you can't argue w/ his waistline. It's sabermetric in it's proportions. Yeah..5 tool guy.[/quote']

 

5 tool guy - bat, fork, knife, spoon, napkin.

[Jayhawk Bill]

And to think....he'd be cost controlled for two seasons before you had to sign him to an extension.

 

Well, technically he'd be arb-eligible, although I'd expect Boston to sign him to a four-year deal for about $70-80 million if they traded for him. He got $7.4 million through arb in 2007; I'd expect at least $11 million in 2008 and $14 million in 2009 through arb if his performance stayed constant.

 

***

 

You know, I was reluctant to post on the side of an argument opposing you, TheKilo, so I did a quick double-check on his 20 PECOTA comparables, eliminating those whose performance at age 24 was more than a win better or worse than his. Here are the ones who remained (descending order of comparability):

 

Cal Ripken, Jr.

Frank Robinson

Dick Allen

Jeff Bagwell

Rocky Colavito

 

I'm pretty high on Ellsbury, but after seeing this I've gotta say that, if I got permission to negotiate a contract pre-trade, I might consider Ellsbury and Lester.

 

Might.

 

Not Buchholz--Lester. Might.

 

But four years of Miggy Cabrera might work out for Boston.

[scaffolds]

You're not getting Cabrera without parting with one of Ellsbury or Buchholz.

 

I disagree with that, the Red Sox can still put a package together not including Ellsbury or Ellsbury and can make the for Cabrera.

[TheKilo]

Well, technically he'd be arb-eligible, although I'd expect Boston to sign him to a four-year deal for about $70-80 million if they traded for him. He got $7.4 million through arb in 2007; I'd expect at least $11 million in 2008 and $14 million in 2009 through arb if his performance stayed constant.

 

***

 

You know, I was reluctant to post on the side of an argument opposing you, TheKilo, so I did a quick double-check on his 20 PECOTA comparables, eliminating those whose performance at age 24 was more than a win better or worse than his. Here are the ones who remained (descending order of comparability):

 

Cal Ripken, Jr.

Frank Robinson

Dick Allen

Jeff Bagwell

Rocky Colavito

 

I'm pretty high on Ellsbury, but after seeing this I've gotta say that, if I got permission to negotiate a contract pre-trade, I might consider Ellsbury and Lester.

 

Might.

 

Not Buchholz--Lester. Might.

 

But four years of Miggy Cabrera might work out for Boston.

 

THANK you. In no way shape or form am I dealing Buchholz for Cabrera.

 

But if you can get a bat like that...without dealing your best prospect...man.

 

Who's to say he can't play LF when Manny leaves? Having Coco in center and the Monster would help him out as much as it does Manny.

[ksushi]

If you're the Marlins why would you ever do a deal with the Red Sox involving your best or 2nd best hitter (statistically the 4th best hitter in the majors this year) and not net at least one of their prized prospects? One of Ellsbury or Buch has to go. I think both. Its not worth doing.

 

Ignoring the sabermetric dig...isn't Ortiz an injury risk waiting to happen? What about Manny?

 

The difference here is that they weren't injury risks when we acquired them. They weren't eating their way out of baseball and they weren't injury risks at that time. Sure, Ortiz's knees pose a risk to his health from now until the end of his contract. That could keep him off the field. And, sure, looking at Manny's power decline this year you could say "Hey, maybe he could be injured, and maybe its serious" but you didn't say that when we acquired him.

 

If we're going to give up our top two prospects for a guy who we expect to be a cornerstone of our franchise I don't want it to be Miguel Cabrera. If it were just money? Fine. But hes not a good clubhouse guy (but you could look at that and say its tough to have a good attitude when as little as 400 people show up to your games - thats probably how many people showed up to his amatuer games) and hes got a weight issue that could get serious. I'd rather not see Buchholz in a Marlins uniform if thats what its gonna take to get Miggy.

 

EDIT!

 

THANK you. In no way shape or form am I dealing Buchholz for Cabrera.

 

If we could do that, I would do it too, but I doubt the Marlins are interested in giving him away without netting a Buchholz or a Hughes or a pitcher of that age and caliber. They have to make up for Anibal.

[TheKilo]

If you're the Marlins why would you ever do a deal with the Red Sox involving your best or 2nd best hitter (statistically the 4th best hitter in the majors this year) and not net at least one of their prized prospects? One of Ellsbury or Buch has to go. I think both. Its not worth doing.

 

Did you read the article I posted, where the Marlins would ask for Ellsbury and either one of Lester and Buchholz?

 

No?

 

 

The difference here is that they weren't injury risks when we acquired them. They weren't eating their way out of baseball and they weren't injury risks at that time. Sure, Ortiz's knees pose a risk to his health from now until the end of his contract. That could keep him off the field. And, sure, looking at Manny's power decline this year you could say "Hey, maybe he could be injured, and maybe its serious" but you didn't say that when we acquired him.

 

Irrelevant, seeing as we're going to be faced with the decision to re-up Manny for $20 million in 2009 anyways. Like i said before, pounds can be lost, years can't.

 

If we're going to give up our top two prospects for a guy who we expect to be a cornerstone of our franchise I don't want it to be Miguel Cabrera. If it were just money? Fine. But hes not a good clubhouse guy (but you could look at that and say its tough to have a good attitude when as little as 400 people show up to your games - thats probably how many people showed up to his amatuer games) and hes got a weight issue that could get serious. I'd rather not see Buchholz in a Marlins uniform if thats what its gonna take to get Miggy.

 

We agree re:Buchholz, but where has it been said that Cabrera isn't a good clubhouse guy? Yes, his work ethic has been questioned, but those issues can be easily resolved, IMO. From what I have heard, he's an easygoing guy who practices Santeria....which is where the perception of clashing with management comes from.

 

Besides, Manny and Ortiz are entering their decline phases. Ortiz has just as many health issues as Cabrera does.

 

Get Cabrera, and in 4 years he can be your DH.

 

EDIT!

 

If we could do that, I would do it too, but I doubt the Marlins are interested in giving him away without netting a Buchholz or a Hughes or a pitcher of that age and caliber. They have to make up for Anibal.

 

They don't have to "make up" for anything. Anibal was a prospect nowhere near the level of Jon Lester, and Ellsbury's got better MiLB numbers than Hanley had.

[TheKilo]

Rotoworld:

 

The Angels are showing the heaviest interest in Miguel Cabrera, according to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

 

The Marlins are insisting that Howie Kendrick be involved in the deal, which is smart on their part. If they received him, they could move Dan Uggla to third base and improve their infield defense considerably. The Angels would prefer to make Brandon Wood a center piece of the deal. If they could get Cabrera for Wood, Ervin Santana and Jeff Mathis, they'd have to jump. The Marlins, though, should target Jered Weaver over Santana if they're not going to get Kendrick.

[scaffolds]

Cabrera's lack of conditioning is a concern, but Cabrera is a good athlete, when the Marlins signed Cabrera he was a short stop prospect. I believe in the right situation and club house chemestry, one like with the Red Sox, specially with Ortiz, Manny and lowell around, Yes with Lowell around, that will be a key, you will see a new Cabrera. According to reports the Red Sox like Cabrera as a first baseman.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Cabrera's lack of conditioning is a concern' date=' but Cabrera is a good athlete, when the Marlins signed Cabrera he was a short stop prospect. [/quote']

 

Yes, but he was converted to third base at age 19 when his Range Factor per Game had already fallen by roughly a full play each game. Either muscle or fat can do that: bigger bodies are harder to move.

 

Miggy's fielding percentage at SS at each level:

 

GCL (Rookie) .950

NYPL (A-) .879

Midwest (A) .928

FSL (A+) .972

 

Of course, by the time Miggy managed a .972 fielding percentage at SS he was reaching about as many ground balls as Nomar was in 2004...

 

Miguel Cabrera was never a MiLB-caliber shortstop. As we speak in 2007, he may not even be a good athlete. He can, however, hit a baseball.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Cabrera's lack of conditioning is a concern' date=' but Cabrera is a good athlete, when the Marlins signed Cabrera he was a short stop prospect. I believe in the right situation and club house chemestry, one like with the Red Sox, specially with Ortiz, Manny and lowell around, Yes with Lowell around, that will be a key, you will see a new Cabrera. According to reports the Red Sox like Cabrera as a first baseman.[/quote']

 

How would we get Cabrera and have Lowell around? Youkilis would have to leave then, which won't happen.

 

If we don't get Lowell back, I'd trade Ellsbury+ anything but Buchholz for Cabrera. Ellsbury+Lester I'm not completely sure about though.

[redsoxrules]

How would we get Cabrera and have Lowell around? Youkilis would have to leave then, which won't happen.

 

 

Why not? id rather have Cabrera at first than youk , can you imagine the lineup if lowell resign and we get cabrera

 

ellsbury

pedroia

ortiz

ramirez

cabrera

lowell

drew

varitek

lugo

[castigs850]

Why not? id rather have Cabrera at first than youk , can you imagine the lineup if lowell resign and we get cabrera

 

ellsbury

pedroia

ortiz

ramirez

cabrera

lowell

drew

varitek

lugo

 

and then if we got A'Rod too!!!

 

ellsbury

pedroia

A'rod

Ortiz

Manny

Cabrera

Lowell

Drew

Varitek

 

we'd all love for it to happen, its just not likely