Miguel Cabrera

[scaffolds]

Word out of South Florida this morning 11/05 is that the Marlins are listening offers for Miguel Cabrera. The Marlins could be looking for a CF, P or (pitchers) and perhaps a young catcher. Rumors has it, that the Yankees have an offer in the table of Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy and a couple of prospects.

[Beckett95]

what would the sox have to give up with Buchholz and Crisp to get him? Masterson maybe?

 

id rather resign lowell or sign arod

[Soxfan1]

I hope the yanks trade Hughes and Melky for him.

[redsoxrules]

I hope the yanks trade Hughes and Melky for him.

 

that would be a s***** deal for florida

[MANNYHOF24]

I hope the yanks trade Hughes and Melky for him.

 

I don't.

[Jayhawk Bill]

that would be a s***** deal for florida

 

Why?

 

Setting aside that New York would get a Cabrera while Florida would get a Cabrera AND a Hughes I'm not so sure that it's lopsided.

 

We're talking two years of Miggy Cabrera vs. four years of Melky Cabrera plus six years of Phil Hughes. Let's make a first assumption that their 2007 WARP1 reflect their true value and check value over the duration of the trade:

 

Miggy: 9.7 x 2 = 19.4

 

Melky: 4.6 x 4 = 18.4

Phil: 1.8 x 6 = 10.8

 

18.4 + 10.8 = 29.2; 29.2 > 19.4; Marlins win.

 

But Hughes pitched only 72.3 IP in MLB this year. He pitched 146 IP in MiLB last year, and he pitched 37.2 IP in MiLB this year. If we conservatively assume that Hughes will average double his 2007 MLB IP, and we further assume that he won't get any better from age 21 to age 27 we get this:

 

Miggy: 9.7 x 2 = 19.4

 

Melky: 4.6 x 4 = 18.4

Phil: 3.6 x 6 = 21.6

 

18.4 + 21.6 = 40.0; 40.0 > 19.4; Marlins win by almost a 2:1 margin.

 

Two other factors:

 

1) Only Melky Cabrera and, especially, Phil Hughes have pre-arb years left. Pre-arb years are golden for small-market teams.

 

2) The key to all three of these players is their future upside. Let's look at the top five 2007 PECOTA comparables for each one:

 

Miggy:

 

Jim Ray Hart

Jack Clark

Ellis Valentine

Cal Ripken

Del Ennis

 

Good players; one HOFer, Ripken

 

Phil:

 

Bobby Bradley

Jake Peavy

Brad Penny

Edwin Jackson

Bob Miller

 

Bobby Bradley was ruined by injuries. Jake Peavy is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, and Brad Penny is close. Edwin Jackson and Bob Miller had losing records but they ate a lot of innings--you have to be pretty good to get a chance to go 1-12 or 5-15.

 

Melky:

 

Rick Manning

Carlos Beltran

Roberto Alomar

Richie Ashburn

Pete Rose

 

Two HOFers, two HOF contenders and Rick Manning are better comparables than Miggy's--and Miggy is rapidly getting so big that his future as an MLB star has to be questioned. Add in that Miggy is an NL player and that Melky and Phil are AL East players, and the balance tips even further in the Marlins' favor were this trade made.

[scaffolds]

what would the sox have to give up with Buchholz and Crisp to get him? Masterson maybe?

 

id rather resign lowell or sign arod

 

Not Red Sox names are known to be an offer, but the Marlins are well known to be interested in Ellsbury and Buchholz. The Red Sox aren't trading those prospects so the names that we hear in rumors are Crisp, Hansen and either Bowden or Masterson.

[BSN07]

Not Red Sox names are known to be an offer' date=' but the Marlins are well known to be interested in Ellsbury and Buchholz. The Red Sox aren't trading those prospects so the names that we hear in rumors are Crisp, Hansen and either Bowden or Masterson.[/quote']

 

 

That doesn't sound like enough if that truly is the case and the marlins are willing to do it, I would do that trade in like half a second. I have said all along if you can do it for Crisp and 3 other prospects not Buccholz or Ellsbury then Theo has to pull the trigger. But for them to trade for him the have to know that someone will beable to get threw to him and make him work harder and shed some weight.

[LUGOforMVP]

Word out of South Florida this morning 11/05 is that the Marlins are listening offers for Miguel Cabrera. The Marlins could be looking for a CF' date=' P or (pitchers) and perhaps a young catcher. Rumors has it, that the Yankees have an offer in the table of Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy and a couple of prospects.[/quote']

 

Juan Pierre and Clayton Kershaw for Miggy Cabrera.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Matt Kemp and Kershaw for Cabrera and you'll be getting somewhere

[ksushi]

The Marlins are going to have a short list of teams to shop Miggy to. With a short list of prospects from those teams that they'll take. I'll guarentee that any talks between the Sox and the Marlins will start at a very unreasonable asking price for the Sox. Buchholz and Ellsbury will have to be the center of a bigger package. They're not going to let him go cheap. I don't think the Sox are going to trade a big part of their rotation next year and for years to come and their cost controlled CFer.

 

If they talk to the Yankees it will be Hughes and Chamberlain. The Dodgers, probably Kershaw, Broxton and Andy LaRoche. I doubt Cabrera gets traded unless the Dodgers decide they really want him as they are probably the deepest out of those three teams in terms of minor league talent. The Sox won't bite, not via trade at least. If he hit the market it will be a possibility, but right now we don't have anywhere for him to play as it seems like our top priority is Mike Lowell at 3B.

[Soxfan1]

I mean in a deal. I hope the yanks give up their future for 1 year of a guy.

[TheKilo]

I mean in a deal. I hope the yanks give up their future for 1 year of a guy.

 

You don't think the Yankees have the resources to sign Cabrera to an extension?

[LUGOforMVP]

The Marlins are going to have a short list of teams to shop Miggy to. With a short list of prospects from those teams that they'll take. I'll guarentee that any talks between the Sox and the Marlins will start at a very unreasonable asking price for the Sox. Buchholz and Ellsbury will have to be the center of a bigger package. They're not going to let him go cheap. I don't think the Sox are going to trade a big part of their rotation next year and for years to come and their cost controlled CFer.

 

If they talk to the Yankees it will be Hughes and Chamberlain. The Dodgers, probably Kershaw, Broxton and Andy LaRoche. I doubt Cabrera gets traded unless the Dodgers decide they really want him as they are probably the deepest out of those three teams in terms of minor league talent. The Sox won't bite, not via trade at least. If he hit the market it will be a possibility, but right now we don't have anywhere for him to play as it seems like our top priority is Mike Lowell at 3B.

 

The Dodgers want to unload Pierre. Pierre is still highly regarded in Florida from his World Series days, and has close ties there (Dontrelle, etc.)

 

I don't think the Dodgers would trade more than one of Kemp, Loney, Martin, Kershaw, or Broxton in the deal.

 

If they want a CF, they can have Pierre back, and LA will probably give them cash for Pierre and Clayton Kershaw. I think that's a good deal for them. Florida gets a CFer and the best pitching prospect in baseball.

[ksushi]

I think the Dodgers could be primed for a HUGE offseason. I think that might need a little tweaking. Pierre, Kershaw and maybe Kemp ( Who I think I read recently that the Dodgers are less in love with than in the past?). But, I definitely think they'll be the top suitor for Cabrera as they have by far the most need out of all the teams with the resources to net him. They finished last in home runs among NL teams or very close to it, and they just made a big splash bringing in Torre and they'll want to give him some more talent to get the job done.

 

A cool thought for a Dodger fan, you could net Cabrera and still have the talent to net Johan if he were to become available. Miguel is going to command some serious glue in extension, and so will Johan, but I think there would be enough to go around between those two and maybe enough to spare and go after one of the "second tier" CF options, like Rowand and Cameron, who might actually be more valuable than the "first tier" options in Jones and Hunter.

 

If they're committed to winning, they have moves to make. They could beast this offseason.

[Jayhawk Bill]

You don't think the Yankees have the resources to sign Cabrera to an extension?

 

I think that the Yankees have the resources to sign Miggy Cabrera either way--the trade is, essentially, for his pre-free agency years.

[scaffolds]

If the Marlins are to trade Cabrera and if they believe that they can't sign A-Rod, either a young veteran third baseman or a third baseman who's a top prospect has to be included in the package for Cabrera.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Seems like everyone in the league is currently available. Most of these guys will probably be taken off the table. Johan Santana, Kazmir, Bedard, Cabrera, Tejada, etc. etc.

 

Out of that group I would want Scott Kazmir the most.

 

I still stick by the idea Clay Buchholz could be as good as any of them. All-Stars have to come from somewhere and the Red Sox are producing some players who will be All-Stars very soon. The fact Kazmir is only 24 and has done what he's done....on the Red Sox he would be incredible with no sign of decline in sight.

[YAZMAN]

You don't think the Yankees have the resources to sign Cabrera to an extension?

 

Hopefully they gut their prospects to get him, sign him to a ridiculous extension, then watch him balloon to 300lbs by October.

 

BTW, does Giambi really get 21mil next year?

[das11209]

Seems like everyone in the league is currently available. Most of these guys will probably be taken off the table. Johan Santana, Kazmir, Bedard, Cabrera, Tejada, etc. etc.

 

Out of that group I would want Scott Kazmir the most.

 

I still stick by the idea Clay Buchholz could be as good as any of them. All-Stars have to come from somewhere and the Red Sox are producing some players who will be All-Stars very soon. The fact Kazmir is only 24 and has done what he's done....on the Red Sox he would be incredible with no sign of decline in sight.

 

I like Kazmir signing more than Santana. But again - we had real bad experience dealing with Tampa. The best part if we get him is we will no longer will have to face him - he has been a pain in the ass for last couple of years.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I like Kazmir signing more than Santana. But again - we had real bad experience dealing with Tampa. The best part if we get him is we will no longer will have to face him - he has been a pain in the ass for last couple of years.

 

Yeah I wouldn't expect Tampa Bay (Kazmir) or Baltimore (Tejada, Bedard) to do us any favors after winning the division, ALCS, and World Series.

 

A situation where those players leave the AL East division would also be a success.

[TheKilo]

Why do people want Kazmir over Santana again?

[a700hitter]

Why do people want Kazmir over Santana again?

The teenagers on this site think Santana is an old man on the decline.

[TheKilo]

Yanks appear to be not interested in Miggy:

 

Cashman also needs to find a third baseman, but he won't give up any of his top prospects for Florida third baseman Miguel Cabrera. The White Sox' Joe Crede could be on his radar.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2007/11/cashman_arrives.html

[example1]

Why do people want Kazmir over Santana again?

 

Santana vs. Kazmir I'm taking Santana every time.

 

However, I would put Kazmir up there with just about any pitcher in baseball except for maybe 4 or 5. He also KILLS the Sox (relative to other TB pitching... they still manage to beat him sometimes because his team sucks and the Sox have a good offense).

 

Kid's a left handed strikeout machine who is only 9 months older than Clay Buchholz.

[Soxfan1]

Hopefully they gut their prospects to get him, sign him to a ridiculous extension, then watch him balloon to 300lbs by October.

 

BTW, does Giambi really get 21mil next year?

Exactly.

[das11209]

Why do people want Kazmir over Santana again?

 

Because Santana might cost the entire farm.

[jacksonianmarch]

and Kazmir wont?

[jacksonianmarch]

Bedard has 2 yrs left. Kazmir has 3. These guys are hitting the market now because both have controllable yrs left. And just like Santana, lefty aces are hard to come by. That being said, with 2+ years left, they have a ton of value. While Santana's one yr has less. It is much easier for a team that is one piece away to wait one season to open the bidding with solely money.

[TheKilo]

Because Santana might cost the entire farm.

 

For once I agree with the doc.