Breakdown of Dice-K

[Gom]

Not sure where you got the idea that his pitches were average to slightly above average. Six of his pitches grade out as plus or better.

 

Exactly how does this grading system work?

 

Now, I have only seen a few of his starts, but his fastball doesn't have as much kick to it as advertised, and has no real movement to it. His breaking pitches seem to have decent break to them, but he isn't all that consistent with them [this may improve if he gets used to the grip of American baseballs, I'll give you that].

 

If a hitter guesses right on the pitch, he gets clobbered. He doesn't have a great pitch, just good ones. He doesn't have Mariano's cutter, or Wang's sinker, or Wagner's fastball, or Santana's change, or Schilling's slider,etc.

 

What he does have is enough pitches to keep most hitters guessing on every single pitch, and to me his biggest asset is he knows how to pitch. I swear, this guy is a carbon copy of Mussina, a poor man's copy, but a good one nonetheless. Moose, and I'm talking about his pre-Yankee years, never had the best fastball, curve, etc. Moose just knew how to pitch. So does Dice-K. I think he can give you a decent outing every time because he knows how to pitch and has so many pitches that he can keep hitters off-balance even if he doesn't have his good stuff. I think that when he slumps a bit, he will be able to adjust quickly. He is a very solid pitcher, and will be as good a number 2 on a staff in baseball. This year, Beckett is your number one. However, I think Matsuzaka is a better pitcher, but Josh has more talent.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

not really. He's had one terrible start and a bunch of crappy ones. He's also had a few ridiculous starts that some could argue has LOWERED his ERA from where it actually belongs.

 

He's given up 7 earned once, 6 earned twice, and 5 earned once...everything else is below that.

 

Do I think he's the Japanese Sandy Koufax? No, nor do I think he'll ever be...but I don't think he'll be giving up 5 ER during very many starts in the future, let alone 33% of them.

[schillingouttheks]

Exactly. Dice-K has the stuff and talent to be a dominant pitcher in the bigs some day. But right now, he needs to learn how to effectively implement all of his talent in order for him to reach his potential. Right now, he's going through the rough stages of learning how to pitch here...which is why I get irritated with people already labeling him a disappointment. Has he lived up to expectations? Not right now. Will he? He definitely can.

[example1]

Exactly. Dice-K has the stuff and talent to be a dominant pitcher in the bigs some day. But right now' date=' he needs to learn how to effectively implement all of his talent in order for him to reach his potential. Right now, he's going through the rough stages of learning how to pitch here...which is why I get irritated with people already labeling him a disappointment. Has he lived up to expectations? Not right now. Will he? He definitely can.[/quote']

 

I think its fair to look at his first few runs through MLB hitting as a learning opportunity.

 

After his last start he talked about making a mistake with one of his pitches which he left up for a home run. He said that he regretted making that pitch and wouldn't do it if he had the chance again. I think that each inning in which he has had considerable trouble has been different and has posed different types of challenges with regard to place in the lineup, pitch selection, etc., there is no reason to think he won't learn from his experiences and start being able to tailor his pitching style/strengths to the hitters he faces.

[Gom]

Hey example1,

 

Isn't saying you regretted throwing a pitch that resulted in a homeun kinda redundant? I mean, in the history of baseball, has any pitcher NOT regretted the pitch when it resulted in a homerun?

 

"You know Jim, he may have hit the facing of the upper deck and nearly killed a 12 year old quadraplegic eating ice cream through a straw, but I'm real happy with that hanging curveball. It broke just enough for hitter to be able to get the fat part of the bat on it. I mean if he hit the ball a little harder, it actually could have gone into orbit."

[example1]

Hey example1,

 

Isn't saying you regretted throwing a pitch that resulted in a homeun kinda redundant? I mean, in the history of baseball, has any pitcher NOT regretted the pitch when it resulted in a homerun?

 

"You know Jim, he may have hit the facing of the upper deck and nearly killed a 12 year old quadraplegic eating ice cream through a straw, but I'm real happy with that hanging curveball. It broke just enough for hitter to be able to get the fat part of the bat on it. I mean if he hit the ball a little harder, it actually could have gone into orbit."

 

Hey Gom,

"I made a good pitch down and away and he just got it. What can you say? Vlad Gurrerro is one of the best hitters in the game and he got the best of me on that one."

 

How many homeruns have you watched a hitter like A-Rod or Manny hit to the opposite field on a pitch that, to most hitters, would be good? QUite a few on my end.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Update:

 

Back on 5/3/07 these were his stats ---> 5/31-----> Now:

- 5.45 ERA ---> 4.83 ERA ---> 4.18 ERA

- 9.24 K/9 ----> 8.42 K/9 ----> 9.03 K/9

- 3.55 BB/9 ---> 2.60 BB/9 --> 2.91 BB/9

- 2.60 K/BB ---> 3.24 K/BB --> 3.10 K/BB

- .47 HR/9 ----> 1.00 HR/9 --> 0.87 HR/9

- .317 BABIP --> .325 BABIP -> .312 BABIP

- FIP = 3.27 --> 3.80 ---------> 3.63

- dERA = 3.11 -> 3.63 -------->3.46

- Line against: .241/.327/.331.658 ----> .263/.325/.416/.741 -----> .248 .316 .389 .705

 

and heres my FIP and ERA chart I made (goes by start)

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c65/rdsxmbnt/Matsuzakachart.jpg

[example1]

Update:

 

Back on 5/3/07 these were his stats ---> 5/31-----> Now:

- 5.45 ERA ---> 4.83 ERA ---> 4.18 ERA

- 9.24 K/9 ----> 8.42 K/9 ----> 9.03 K/9

- 3.55 BB/9 ---> 2.60 BB/9 --> 2.91 BB/9

- 2.60 K/BB ---> 3.24 K/BB --> 3.10 K/BB

- .47 HR/9 ----> 1.00 HR/9 --> 0.87 HR/9

- .317 BABIP --> .325 BABIP -> .312 BABIP

- FIP = 3.27 --> 3.80 ---------> 3.63

- dERA = 3.11 -> 3.63 -------->3.46

- Line against: .241/.327/.331.658 ----> .263/.325/.416/.741 -----> .248 .316 .389 .705

 

and heres my FIP and ERA chart I made (goes by start)

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c65/rdsxmbnt/Matsuzakachart.jpg

 

A very nice chart and analysis.

 

Is it just me, or is the BABIP unusually high? What is the average BABIP?

[Rdsxmbnt]

I think average is around .290

[example1]

I think average is around .290

 

That sounds about right.

 

So what do we attribute the high BABIP to? Park effects? Pitching behind in the count? DiceK's stuff not being good? A tendency for hitters to look for singles/doubles, especially to the right side, rather than HR? He pitches from the stretch quite a bit, which opens that side on the right where it seems he gives up a fair number of weakly hit singles.

 

I'm interested to hear what people think, because it does seem like DiceK has been a bit unlucky in terms of getting out of jams. He has obviously walked too many guys, but it seems like he has had a number of hits in those situations that could easily have been outs. Of course he's going to give up some runs, but in his losses/poor-performances he has gotten shelled in those situations.

 

I'm not too knowledgable on the ins-and-outs of BABIP, or its implications. So if anyone more versed wants to take a shot feel free. I just know that it is a good indicator (or supposed to be) of luck and chance relative to other players.

[TheKilo]

Well, essentially, when his BABIP was so high it was merely because the balls that are being put in play are falling for hits. When he's struggled, it's because of his control, not because he was getting shelled.

 

If the weak balls put in play find fielders, the BABIP goes down.

[SCM33]

Struggled again with his control. I really cant understand why.....I really think he is a bit intimidated by MLB hitters and is trying to be too careful. Too often I find myself watching him and screaming at the tv to just throw the fahkin ball. Really wish he would just trust his stuff.

 

Owell, a win is a win.....5 BB's, 1 ER, ill take it if its a win.

[example1]

After the first inning he was everything he needed to be. He got himself into moderate jams and got himself out, both I believe with at least one out at the time. The first inning will stain our memory of this game but overall he was very good.

 

It is very hard to complain about 9K and 1 ER to begin the west coast portion of the roadtrip. He will probably be pretty happy with his performance and forget about the first inning. He was consistently hitting 94 when he needed to and his breaking stuff had nasty movement. That first inning killed him.

[BSN07]

The strike zone in the MLB is about half the size of the strike zone in Japan. He struggling with walks, this is no surprise, he has to have time toadjust. Last year it was Beckett and his HR's. this year its Matsuzaka and BB's.No big deal, just imagine what they will be like next yr as a 1-2 punch.

[jacksonianmarch]

The strike zone in the MLB is about half the size of the strike zone in Japan. He struggling with walks' date=' this is no surprise, he has to have time toadjust. Last year it was Beckett and his HR's. this year its Matsuzaka and BB's.No big deal, just imagine what they will be like next yr as a 1-2 punch.[/quote']

 

thats not a very good excuse. Control is control and his catcher is setting up over the plate. DMats doesnt have great control. He just has great stuff.

[ANiMAL]

The strike zone in the MLB is about half the size of the strike zone in Japan. He struggling with walks' date=' this is no surprise, he has to have time toadjust. Last year it was Beckett and his HR's. this year its Matsuzaka and BB's.No big deal, just imagine what they will be like next yr as a 1-2 punch.[/quote']

 

 

If that is true than why is Okajimi dominating along with Saito.

[jacksonianmarch]

If that is true than why is Okajimi dominating along with Saito.

 

agreed. Control is control.

[MANNYHOF24]

The strike zone in the MLB is about half the size of the strike zone in Japan. He struggling with walks' date=' this is no surprise, he has to have time toadjust. Last year it was Beckett and his HR's. this year its Matsuzaka and BB's.No big deal, just imagine what they will be like next yr as a 1-2 punch.[/quote']

 

Did you see the first inning, DiceK wasn't getting squezed he was missing by a foot on almost every pitch. For some reason he just has trouble getting into a grove, but once he finds it he is lights from there on almost everytime.

[MANNYHOF24]

agreed. Control is control.

 

Throw out like three starts and DiceK's walk totals are not really that high. I remember a stretch of like 4-5 games where he did not walk anybody.

[BSN07]

Ok, whatever it is hes still pitching quality games. Maybe its the whole routine. Okijihma hasn't had to change his neither has Saito. Not saying the routine in general is giving him trouble, but didn't he used to run and throw a ton between starts in Japan? maybe hes like Paps and when his arm is to rested he gets a little over amped and a little wild. I still say hes doing a great job, and should only get better.

[ORS]

thats not a very good excuse. Control is control and his catcher is setting up over the plate. DMats doesnt have great control. He just has great stuff.

I'd agree if his walks were more scattered, but he seems to cluster them in lone innings. He has good control. He also has these innings where it's like the arm bone isn't connected to the head bone. If it were the former, I'd worry about it never getting corrected. Since it's the latter, I tend to think he can work through it and figure something out.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Hes had 4 seperate innings where hes walked 3 guys in an inning and another where he walked the first 2. So in 5 of his innings hes accounted for 14 of his 35 walks, thats 40% of his total walks in just 5 innings. In his other 93.2 innings he has a 2.02 BB/9 so control isnt the problem. Having these one inning lapses has been. However, 3 of these 3 walk innings came back in late April-Early May, and last night was the first time in almost 2 months that it happened and it was the first time it happened in the first. But he settled down fine and was great.

 

EDIT: and updated chart

 

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c65/rdsxmbnt/Matsuzakachart-1.jpg

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd agree if his walks were more scattered' date=' but he seems to cluster them in lone innings. He has good control. He also has these innings where it's like the arm bone isn't connected to the head bone. If it were the former, I'd worry about it never getting corrected. Since it's the latter, I tend to think he can work through it and figure something out.[/quote']

 

I think he'll work through it and improve. He has ridiculous stuff and the thought of facing an improved version for the next 5 yrs kinda makes me tinkle my drawers.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

what's FIP?

[Rdsxmbnt]

what's FIP?

 

Stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. Basically measures how well the pitcher has actually pitched. Its actually quite accurate as many have come to find, and normally if a pitchers ERA is really high but his FIP is lower, the ERA tends to trend down towards the FIP figure and vice-versa. Shows pretty clearly here also in that chart. His ERA was quite high for a while and his FIP was much lower, and as you can see the chart his FIP is staying pretty consistent and his ERA is going down to meet that.

 

I've seen others make a Beckett chart from last year, and if you recall to the beginning of the year Beckett's ERA was quite good for a while, however his FIP was in the 5 range, and eventually that evened out. Ill put together a Beckett chart from last year.

 

EDIT: Here it is. All evens out in the end. This year though is a completely different story for Beckett, who actually is the AL leader in FIP.

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c65/rdsxmbnt/beckett06.jpg

[lasordas speed dial]

Why does this guy walk so many batters? Somebody know? Tell him to throw some friggin strikes already.

[adam123]

He's still has room to grow. But you got to be impressed by his strength to throw so many pitches. American pitchers are so babied.

[Metropolitan Cowboy]

He's still has room to grow. But you got to be impressed by his strength to throw so many pitches. American pitchers are so babied.

 

room to grow? I didn't realize the Sox dropped 100 million dollars on a 18 year old kid that can grow.

[lasordas speed dial]

He's still has room to grow. But you got to be impressed by his strength to throw so many pitches. American pitchers are so babied.

 

When you're paying these babies 10+ mil/year........he better come around. Got him on my fantasy team and I'm getting pissed at all the friggin baserunners he allows. Seems like every batter has a 3-2 count.

[adam123]

Only in the first part of the season was he effective for fantasy now he's scary.