To get a closer

[riverside sluggers]

I dont believe they got fleeced when they said we need a shortstop this offseason, signed Julio Lugo (top SS available this offseason). At best the "fleecing" would be the 1st round draft pick taken away, at least they will still gain a supplemental 1st rounder for Foulke.

 

Last year they stated they needed a shortstop after they traded away E-Rent... a month later they signed Gonzo for a palty 1 year/$2.5 million deal. He had a solid stop gap year for us and gave many web gem plays for RSN to see. I guess the fleecing was his offense? Lugo, though yes with uptick on errors, is going to be a great fit with Boston

[seabeachfred]

Riverside, I think we will be a step down defensively with Lugo but a much bigger upside. The way I see it, though, is that Lugo is a better fielder than Gonzales was a hitter. Besides we needed a decent leadoff man who could run when needed to steal a base or two. I think we did ok with that. Now if we can just get Drew taken care of we can concentrate on getting that closer we need so badly.

[jacksonianmarch]

riverside, while I like your analogy, I think it doesnt necessarily fit what I am saying. When there are no closer options left on the market, hence forcing a trade, and you make public acknowledgments that the closer position is 'keeping you up at night' then you essentially are throwing yourself to the wolves. I like what Cashman does. Last season, when Johnny D was deciding where to go, he said he would be fine with Bubba as the CFer. We all knew he was full of s***, but he never officially showed his hand. Now that RJ is being dealt, he never came out and said anything about randy wanting to go home. Speculation abounds, but he certainly hasnt made any acknowledgements of a need to deal randy. This makes the other team the aggressor. This makes the other team get fleeced. When he was dealing Gary he said that he would love to have him on his team going into next yr, while at the same time keeping gary out of the yankee loop.

 

Theo has made it known that the internal options are not good for closer. Hence, any team that is dealing a closer can ask for a little more from the sox. If Theo came out and said, we are ready to give the ball to Mike Timlin as the closer on opening day then he could poke around for a closer without getting fleeced. Also, by doing that, he is showing confidence in his player should no market develop for him and he needs to settle for what he has. By essentially saying the internal options suck, he has put down his team, which can only be a detriment to already low confidences. Therefore, any team calling them with trade offers from here to the deadline knows they have theo in an uncomfortable position and knows that they will get more out of him.

 

Never show your hand, bluff when you can.

[riverside sluggers]

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammons_peter#20061229

 

Peter Gammons on the Sox acquiring a closer.

 

No panic over closer

Sunday, December 17, 2006

 

It was near the end of spring training in 2002. The subject was the Twins' bullpen and whether or not they had a legitimate closer. LaTroy Hawkins was coming off a 28-save season, Eddie Guardado off a 12-save year, and coaches promised it would be all right because Guardado, who didn't have a save in nine minor league seasons and had 18 saves in 34 opportunities before 2001, would do the job. Forty-five saves later, Guardado helped carry the Twins into the ALCS.

 

Two springs later, Everyday Eddie was a Mariner, and the people around the Minnesota spring training camp were concerned. Joe Nathan, who had come over from the Giants in the A.J. Pierzynski deal, was having a tough spring. The last week of spring training, Nathan was throwing 85-87 mph, and after all, in his career in San Francisco he had just one save in five opportunities.

 

By the second week of the regular season, Nathan was throwing 95 mph and on his way to 44 saves, a 1.62 ERA and three years of brilliance.

 

That's why you do not hear anyone with the Red Sox, Guardians or Marlins, three teams that could well be strong playoff contenders in 2007, panicking about their bullpens. The Guardians have added Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Fultz, and soon to be announced ex-Sox Keith Foulke. Boston has acquired Brendan Donnelly, J.C. Romero and Hideki Okajima, and the Marlins are working on bringing back Armando Benitez.

 

They all know there is a long way to go, and that Fausto Carmona or Fernando Cabrera could end up closing in Cleveland, or that Craig Hansen or Bryce Cox could do the same in Boston. And any one of a number of young pitchers could emerge in Florida. The stuff is unquestionably there.

 

There was little bullpen help on the market, and anyway, history tells us that "an established closer" is often a myth. After all, Borowski was third in the National League in saves with 36 after going 9-for-15 in save situations the two previous seasons. Bobby Jenks was second in the AL with 41, 35 more than his previous career total. Hey, B.J. Ryan signed a five-year, $47 million contract and came up big for Toronto, but in 2004 he was setting up for Jorge Julio in Baltimore and was 6-for-18 lifetime.

 

In November 2001, the Dodgers were shopping Eric Gagne and Luke Prokopec. Most teams wanted Prokopec; Toronto took him over Gagne for Cesar Izturis, and Gagne -- whose career save total was zero -- went on to save 52 games in 2002, went 55-for-55 in 2003 and had 45 saves in 2004; he's pitched 15 1/3 innings since. Mariano Rivera, at age 26, began the '96 season as John Wetteland's setup man after posting a 5.51 ERA in 1995. Takashi Saito wasn't supposed to make the 2006 Dodgers as a 36-year-old who in 13 seasons in Japan had a single-season best of 27 saves. Yet he converted 24-for-26 save opportunities with a 2.07 ERA. Saito was 11-16 with an ERA close to five in his last three seasons in Japan.

 

If one defines an "established closer" as someone who saves at least 35 games, there are only four active pitchers (Trevor Hoffman, 10 times; Rivera, 9; Billy Wagner, 6; Jose Mesa, 5) who have accomplished that feat more than three times. And only another nine others (Nathan, Guardado, Jones, Benitez, Gagne, Jason Isringhausen, Roberto Hernandez, John Smoltz and Keith Foulke have done it thrice.

 

Look at the last six world champions:

 

• The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks' leading closer was Byung-Hyun Kim, who had 19 saves, followed by Bret Prinz with nine.

 

• The 2002 Angels had a 40-save closer in Troy Percival -- who hadn't had more than a three-out save for five years -- and Ben Weber was their backup closer until Francisco Rodriguez arrived in mid-September and became their most valuable reliever. In 2001, Rodriguez was 5-7, 5.38 for Class A Rancho Cucamonga.

 

• The 2003 Marlins' leading closer was Braden Looper (28), but they acquired Ugueth Urbina for the stretch run, got six regular-season saves from him and used him at the end during the postseason.

 

• The one team in the last six seasons who used the same closer from Opening Day through the World Series was the 2004 Red Sox. Keith Foulke had 32 saves in the regular season and was their postseason MVP.

 

• The 2005 White Sox were led by Dustin Hermanson with 34 saves, but Bobby Jenks -- whom they claimed on waivers from the Angels -- took over in September, saved six games and was their postseason closer. In his minor league career, Jenks posted ERAs of 7.86, 5.27, 4.82, 8.76, 19.64 and 8.10.

 

• The 2006 Cardinals had one of the game's most reliable closers in Jason Isringhausen, but he had to step aside in September with arm problems. Adam Wainwright, who had never had a professional save opportunity, was 3-for-5 in September, then in the postseason had four saves, a win and did not allow an earned run in 9 2/3 innings.

 

To start with, it does no good to have an elite closer without premium starters and relievers who miss bats in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings.

 

What GM Ken Williams has done so well with the White Sox is obtain big arms -- Jenks, Matt Thornton, Mike MacDougal, David Aardsma and Andrew Sisco -- and turn them over to pitching coach Don Cooper, who has done wonders fixing deliveries. That has been the modus operandi of Mets GM Omar Minaya, who constantly tries to find power arms to put in front of closer Billy Wagner.

 

With Jonathan Papelbon going into the rotation, Boston is still in the market for another reliever who could open the season closing. But while they wait to see if Hansen, Manny Delcarmen or Cox rushes forward, they have Devern Hansack, Mike Timlin, Donnelly, Julian Tavarez, Romero and Okajima for different situations. Cleveland can close with Borowski or Hernandez, but they also have Rafael Betancourt, Jeremy Guthrie, Rafael Perez, Carmona, Cabrera, Edward Mujica, Jason Davis

 

In the case of both the Red Sox and Guardians, much of the improvement in the bullpen will come from better starting pitching. Cleveland is counting on a full season from Jeremy Sowers, who was second in the league in ERA after the All-Star break, putting Paul Byrd into the fifth hole in the rotation -- that is, if Adam Miller (15-6, 157/43 K/BB ratio in AA) doesn't force himself in the door.

 

With Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield, and Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz on the horizon, Boston hopes to have its starters stabilized. No, the Red Sox are not trading Beckett for a closer and, no, they are not after Roger Clemens unless he wants to end his career where it started for a fraction of what he made in Houston.

 

Matsuzaka? They think he's a Greg Maddux with early Maddux stuff, able to dial it into the mid-90s with six pitches.

 

The brilliant Bobby Valentine, arguably the most knowledgeable expert on the Japanese and American games, warns that Matsuzaka has to pitch his games.

 

"The problem is the old adage you don't get beat on something other than your best pitch," Valentine said in an e-mail. "And this guy has six really good pitches other than his fastball. So it is inevitable that he will give up hits on his other pitches and will get the radio hosts and all the other experts out there telling him to throw more fastballs. They must also understand that this guy is a pitching genius and what he did last time might not be what he should do the next time."

 

As for his health, Matsuzaka's MRI of his elbow and labrum were completely clean.

 

If Matsuzaka and Sowers are as good as their teams think they are and the rest of the Boston and Cleveland rotations remain healthy, come September, the closer situations will be resolved. And either team could go deep into October.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gammons has a habit of swinging things in favor of the sox, even though he is supposed to be an unbiased reporter. Either way, all of the bullpens noted above sans the 06 cardinals had bullpen aces.

 

Minnesota had two very solid options out of that pen. Guardado was always a reliable reliever and was still young as was Hawkins

 

The angels had one of the best closers in the league in Percival and KRod turned out to be dynamite.

 

The marlins had 2 bullpen aces going into the postseason

 

The white sox had a reliable closer who got injured and a new one developed.

 

The cardinals had a bullpen ace who was injured.

 

All of these teams had at least one bullpen ace or clear cut proven closer coming into a yr. The sox dont have any if Paps stays in the rotation. Timlin is not the BP ace, as he exploded down the stretch. Donnelly is a nice piece, but he has been inflating his pertinent stats and peripherals 3 yrs running. Romero is a disaster. The rest are kids. Can the sox pen morph into a reliable one, absolutely, but the same can be said about any team right now. Is it probable, not really.

[riverside sluggers]

The D-Backs didnt know coming into the season how good the duo of Kim & Pinz would have been in the 01 season, despite they just got a collective 28 saves for the year. Kim in 2000 had a 4.46 ERA the year before in Arizona and Pinz was entering his rookie season. I know youre a Yankee fan and have considerable bias, but its too early to write off the Sox's chances because of the bullpen they have on December 30

[jacksonianmarch]

To show you how important bullpens and having them settled are, here are a few stats for you.

 

2006. BP ERA ranks of teams in the postseason (in all of MLB) out of 30 teams

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 16

 

once my computer decides to run better, I'll finish this thought with 2005 and 2004. Fact is, a good bullpen in the regular season is imperative to make the playoffs. Hence, entering a season with a bunch of retreads and shaky kids is a risky proposition.

[jacksonianmarch]

The D-Backs didnt know coming into the season how good the duo of Kim & Pinz would have been in the 01 season' date=' despite they just got a collective 28 saves for the year. Kim in 2000 had a 4.46 ERA the year before in Arizona and Pinz was entering his rookie season. I know youre a Yankee fan and have considerable bias, but its too early to write off the Sox's chances because of the bullpen they have on December 30[/quote']

 

I wont write off their chances of getting a closer, or even one developing. But you must say, that right now, the bullpen is configured poorly in the "wish and a prayer" category. It also forces the sox to use Hansen and Delcarmen in stressful situations, when they really could use a full yr in the minors. A bad pen is something that could torpedo a season. Plus, it requires an exorbitant amount of overproduction from the staff and the lineup. And to be honest with you, that lineup is not the one that struck fear across baseball like it did 2 yrs ago. In 05, the sox carried one of the worst pens in recent memory and one of the worst rotations in recent memory into the playoffs on the strength of that lineup. That is a fluke rather than a consistent occurence.

[riverside sluggers]

Yes the bullpen on December 30 is not looking like as I would like it to be. I believe moves can be still made with just over 3 months left until the 1st pitch is thrown. Baseball games are not won in December, I'll make my reservations on the bullpen outlook when the season starts

[elsrbueno]

Yes the bullpen on December 30 is not looking like as I would like it to be. I believe moves can be still made with just over 3 months left until the 1st pitch is thrown. Baseball games are not won in December' date=' I'll make my reservations on the bullpen outlook when the season starts[/quote']

 

With all due respect, I think you're both missing the points of Gammons' article.

 

It's partially because he didn't do a great job saying it, but the point is that in today's game such a thing as a "proven closer" is really a rare thing. Sustained success in the bullpen just doesn't happen that often. There are only a handful of relievers who are able to do that.

 

I think what Gammons is trying to say is that if you bring enough quality arms into camp, a closer will emege.

 

Now, I'm not saying I agree wholeheartedly with what he is saying, but he has a point. Closers emerge every season, partly because it's so hard for pitchers to maintain success in that role.

 

I am one person who believes that the Sox could hand all 2 or 3 run, 1 inning saves to Mike Timlin and be no worse off for it. It's the key situations (up by 1 run or tied late) in which you need the bullpen ace. The Tigers accidentally stumbled into that last season using Todd Jones to save games and having Zumaya dominate during more crucial times during the game.

 

The Red Sox have arms in Hansen and Delcarmen who could be swing and miss pitchers. There is no reason to panic and overpay for a mediocre reliever.

[jacksonianmarch]

good post senior. My retort is that those other teams had quality, veteran arms mixed with quality young arms. The sox have 2 guys with quality arms and both are young and coming off rough first seasons. The veterans all appear to be on the wrong side of the hill.

[riverside sluggers]

With all due respect, I think you're both missing the points of Gammons' article.

 

It's partially because he didn't do a great job saying it, but the point is that in today's game such a thing as a "proven closer" is really a rare thing. Sustained success in the bullpen just doesn't happen that often. There are only a handful of relievers who are able to do that.

 

I think what Gammons is trying to say is that if you bring enough quality arms into camp, a closer will emege.

 

Now, I'm not saying I agree wholeheartedly with what he is saying, but he has a point. Closers emerge every season, partly because it's so hard for pitchers to maintain success in that role.

 

I am one person who believes that the Sox could hand all 2 or 3 run, 1 inning saves to Mike Timlin and be no worse off for it. It's the key situations (up by 1 run or tied late) in which you need the bullpen ace. The Tigers accidentally stumbled into that last season using Todd Jones to save games and having Zumaya dominate during more crucial times during the game.

 

The Red Sox have arms in Hansen and Delcarmen who could be swing and miss pitchers. There is no reason to panic and overpay for a mediocre reliever.

 

with all due respect, where did I say that I didnt think the Sox will be able to find a closer for 2007? Anyone? Maybe you misread my posts but I am optimistic about the Sox being contenders in the AL East.

 

Yes I said on December 30 its not looking like the bullpen I want to see for 07 (hence mainly because I would like to know who will be called upon for saves). I then went on to say that there is still over 3 months left to continue adding arms. Whatsoever did I not say in my posts that I dont think a closer will emerge to stablizie the fort.

[elsrbueno]

good post senior. My retort is that those other teams had quality' date=' veteran arms mixed with quality young arms. The sox have 2 guys with quality arms and both are young and coming off rough first seasons. The veterans all appear to be on the wrong side of the hill.[/quote']

 

I'm optimistic that Mike Timlin will rebound. A lot of pitchers who pitched in the WBC had mediocre seasons and Timlin is no exception. I'm willing to chalk it up to one bad season and say he'll rebound to typical Mike Timlin performance. Which is better than Todd Jones, Joe Borowski, etc.

 

On that same subject, Brendan Donnelly although declining should also be comprable to the Jones/Borrowski type pitcher.

 

That having been said, we've got no idea what to expect out of Okajima and I'm not confident about JC Romero. It is possible that Romero was also adversely impacted by the WBC (he pitched for Puerto Rico).

 

In my mind either Donnelly or Timlin could fill the closer's role in the traditional way. Like I said, give him all the 2 and 3 run save opportunities and he'll convert 90% of them. It's the swing and miss relievers that this team lacks, and in a way that's a nice thing because they might not come with the "closer" label and thus the "closer" price tag.

 

One guy who was encouraging last season and who could emerge IMO as a strong bullpen arm is Kyle Snyder. I know, commence laughing now, but he is a swing and miss type pitcher who really hasn't had success as a starter. Now, because I was curious, I pulled Snyder's MLB stats for last season (albeit limited) and compared them with Gagne's last season as a starter before becoming a dominant reliever. The rate stats came out surprisingly similar:

 

K/9

Gagne: 7.71

Snyder: 8.48

 

BB/9

Gagne:2.93

Snyder:2.73

 

K/BB:

Gagne:2.83

Snyder:2.89

 

H/9:

Gagne:8.55

Snyder:11.88

 

HR/9:

Gagne:1.42

Snyder:1.69

 

Now, it should be said that when Gagne put up his numbers he was 25 and Snyder was 28, which means Snyder is theoretically in his prime while Gagne was a year away. I am not saying that Kyle Snyder will become Eric Gagne, that is just plain silly, but my point is that closers can come from unlikely sources. Nobody was saying in 2001 after struggling through a season as a starter that Eric Gagne was going to be the next great closer, and for a period of 3 years he was one of the best.

 

Adding a swing and miss arm would be nice, but I'm not as concerned as most folks are about finding a prototypical "closer."

[jacksonianmarch]

the thing about gagne vs snyder is the definite difference in stuff. Snyder had gagne esque stuff when he was drafted. Now, after multiple injuries, he is a guy who has to grunt to hit 90. His secondary stuff made him a swing and miss pitcher, but it was not consistent. Hence, he had to rely on that heater which was cold.

[riverside sluggers]

There is a sizable difference in the ammount of hits Gagne allowed to what Kyle Snyder has. The 3 seasons Gagne experienced starting these were his opposing BA's-- 175, .270, .251. Now Kyle Snyder's this past season was .331, and his career BAA is at .314

 

Snyder was a welcomed under the radar pick up by Theo. For now I envision him as a solid long man/spot starter, and steady work sometimes in middle relief :dunno:

[Cityofchampions33]

I think for now, Theo's just going to relax and if anything interesting drops on his door step, he'll look into it. However, as stated, we're basicaly holding open try-outs for the closer role and have some promising young arms in it. Hansen, MDC, Cox, and others should turn into solid arms at the least (maybe not even this season), with Devern, and Snyder as the outside the box options. My favorites right now (not because of probability, but more because Id liek to see it) are Cox or Hansen.

[a700hitter]

A year ago we were hoping for a comeback season by Keith Foulke. That never happened. No one could have predicted that Papelbon would fill the closers role so spectacularly. Who knows who will eventually be the 2007 closer. Maybe it will be Hansn. Maybe Cox. Maybe Bard. Maybe they will look internally before going outside. They don't need a closer in place from April 1st for the duration of the season. They need to have someone reliable in place for the stretch drive and a post-season run.

[seabeachfred]

A year ago we were hoping for a comeback season by Keith Foulke. That never happened. No one could have predicted that Papelbon would fill the closers role so spectacularly. Who knows who will eventually be the 2007 closer. Maybe it will be Hansn. Maybe Cox. Maybe Bard. Maybe they will look internally before going outside. They don't need a closer in place from April 1st for the duration of the season. They need to have someone reliable in place for the stretch drive and a post-season run.

 

700---though I do not disagree with your assessment of the closer situation, it would be nice to have one guy step up and take over that role by the time the season starts. I think we both remember the closer-by-committee fiasco of 2003 and I don't think any of us want to revisit or relive that mess. It could be that one of those mentioned by you could step up and take over. It should have been Hansen this year but when they changed his delivery they really screwed him up. He didn't look like he would be anywhere near ready by this year if we look at the way he pitched in 2006. Glad you didn't mention Delcarmen. I don't know what happened to him but he was getting hammered just about everytime out late last season.

[seabeachfred]

they can target a closer from those three teams all they want. They dont have a match unless they get really creative. I'm not even sure they have enough when you throw in the lower level kids. Gonzalez will take a lefty power bat. The sox dont have that. The braves have one available' date=' but they will have to be a match for them, and they arent. Washington wants MLB ready pitching and power. They have the power in WiMP. They dont have the MLB ready pitching. Houston also wants pitching, mlb ready starters and they dont have it.[/quote']

 

Jack, that is why I think we have to either get the Drew matter settled or sign Huff. That way we have some chips to trade for a closer if we decide we cannot depend on what we have right now----which I certainly know in my gut that we can't. I only wish Theo wouldn't be so up front of our needs. He could be a little more subtle about it. As you mentioned, blabbing that we need something bad only intensifies the cost we will have to pay to get what we need. It also depends who we trade for--Ducherer, Gonzales, Lidge, Cordero. Some teams might want a hitter and a young pitching prospect. What really pisses me off is that joker who screwed around with Hansen's delivery last year. He turned a guy with a lights out sharp breaking slider and good fastball into a straight as an arrow pitcher who can get lit up. It also did nothing for his control either.

[a700hitter]

700---though I do not disagree with your assessment of the closer situation' date=' it would be nice to have one guy step up and take over that role by the time the season starts. I think we both remember the closer-by-committee fiasco of 2003 and I don't think any of us want to revisit or relive that mess. It could be that one of those mentioned by you could step up and take over. It should have been Hansen this year but when they changed his delivery they really screwed him up. He didn't look like he would be anywhere near ready by this year if we look at the way he pitched in 2006. Glad you didn't mention Delcarmen. I don't know what happened to him but he was getting hammered just about everytime out late last season.[/quote']HAving a closer in place by April 1 would be optimal, but not a necessity. It is much more important that the FO has taken steps to significantly improve the starting rotation.

[ksushi]

A bad bullpen can blow a lead any time, and the games in april count just as much as september. I'd rather get someone reliable from outside the organization this year, and let kids compete for set up jobs this season rather than expecting them to step up and be good enough to be a closer this season. Maybe one of them is excellent, maybe they put Bard in the bullpen and he is lights out. He does have a nice fastball. But we all know if we depend on Delcarmen, Hansen, Bard or Cox we're asking for trouble. Hansen could do it, but hasn't shown it yet, putting additional pressure on him when he is trying to learn how to pitch in the majors is probably asking for disaster. Same goes for the rest, we could end up with a handful of guys who can't get anyone out. I'd rather go out and bring in a Cordero or a Gonzalez and let Hansen and the others compete for set up jobs.

 

Fred, Delcarmen was injured. Pre-Injury he looked pretty good, but when he came back he was lost.

[seabeachfred]

A bad bullpen can blow a lead any time, and the games in april count just as much as september. I'd rather get someone reliable from outside the organization this year, and let kids compete for set up jobs this season rather than expecting them to step up and be good enough to be a closer this season. Maybe one of them is excellent, maybe they put Bard in the bullpen and he is lights out. He does have a nice fastball. But we all know if we depend on Delcarmen, Hansen, Bard or Cox we're asking for trouble. Hansen could do it, but hasn't shown it yet, putting additional pressure on him when he is trying to learn how to pitch in the majors is probably asking for disaster. Same goes for the rest, we could end up with a handful of guys who can't get anyone out. I'd rather go out and bring in a Cordero or a Gonzalez and let Hansen and the others compete for set up jobs.

 

Fred, Delcarmen was injured. Pre-Injury he looked pretty good, but when he came back he was lost.

 

Ksushi, thanks for the heads-up. Out here in California we don't get the news that quickly, but now that you mention it I think I might have heard something said on MLV TV.

[jacksonianmarch]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/12/31/reality_check_on_a_closer/?page=1

 

Cafardo is saying the sox will likely bring in one more middle reliever and have them fight it out in ST. He polled GMs around baseball and most of them think Tavares would be the best choice. As expected, the sox have gone away from the Gonzalez, Lidge, Cordero route as all three were either unavailable or the price was so high that it could be assumed that they all were unavailable.

[Papelbon58]

My favorite option at this point is get Clemens and give Paps his job back

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont see that happening. They have already said that it is in Papelbon's best interest, health wise to move to the rotation. You dont risk it with a 25 yr old kid.

[Cocos Disciples]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/12/31/reality_check_on_a_closer/?page=1

 

Cafardo is saying the sox will likely bring in one more middle reliever and have them fight it out in ST. He polled GMs around baseball and most of them think Tavares would be the best choice. As expected, the sox have gone away from the Gonzalez, Lidge, Cordero route as all three were either unavailable or the price was so high that it could be assumed that they all were unavailable.

 

Ugh, great.

[Papelbon58]

Devern Hansack!!! Oh god, this is going to be interesting at best

[seabeachfred]

HAving a closer in place by April 1 would be optimal' date=' but not a necessity. It is much more important that the FO has taken steps to significantly improve the starting rotation.[/quote']

 

700, I can see you're a Joe Morgan disciple. The Hall of Famer always pontificates that the secret to a championship run is starting pitching. I think both you and him are correct. Starting pitching is the main component of a team seeking to go all the way. Our problem on the Red Sox is the reluctance of our manager to let pitchers get real deep into the games and that brings a risk the bullpen could blow it for us. If our starters could get seven solid innings in and sometimes get into the eighth we probably could get by without a top notch closer most of the time since we do have the means to put runs across the plate, but then we would need at least two guys with balls enough to go in and get us five or six outs. Then, of course, it would be nice if Beckett could lower his pitch count next season so he can get us into the eighth or ninth inning in most of his starts. :D :D

[seabeachfred]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/12/31/reality_check_on_a_closer/?page=1

 

Cafardo is saying the sox will likely bring in one more middle reliever and have them fight it out in ST. He polled GMs around baseball and most of them think Tavares would be the best choice. As expected, the sox have gone away from the Gonzalez, Lidge, Cordero route as all three were either unavailable or the price was so high that it could be assumed that they all were unavailable.

 

Thanks Jackson for trying to ruin my day. Not nice having that done to you by one of your friends on the board. Yes, we could get by without a top notch closer IF our starters could go deep into the game (eighth or ninth inning), but that is no guarantee as you know, and right now not having a decent closer means we have to be considered second in the food chain behind your Yankees going into the season. Of course, the Red Sox could strike a major offensive and sign Clemens and put Paps back in that role. I would not think that is a good idea, though---the Paps thing. Clemens would be fine. All in all, we still have some work to do to get our team up to snuff and I know that makes you all the happier.

 

Have a great day. Enjoy reading your posts. :D :D

[jacksonianmarch]

700' date=' I can see you're a Joe Morgan disciple. The Hall of Famer always pontificates that the secret to a championship run is starting pitching. I think both you and him are correct. Starting pitching is the main component of a team seeking to go all the way. Our problem on the Red Sox is the reluctance of our manager to let pitchers get real deep into the games and that brings a risk the bullpen could blow it for us. If our starters could get seven solid innings in and sometimes get into the eighth we probably could get by without a top notch closer most of the time since we do have the means to put runs across the plate, but then we would need at least two guys with balls enough to go in and get us five or six outs. Then, of course, it would be nice if Beckett could lower his pitch count next season so he can get us into the eighth or ninth inning in most of his starts. :D :D[/quote']

 

starting pitching is the basis for everything yes. But he is also a National league guy. Where lineups are 7 deep. Where the average player over there would be on the bench over here. AL Lineups are so deep and especially in the AL East where each lineup has pitch takers up and down. This means starting pitching gets ground down easier. Hence, the bullpen is extremely important in the AL.

 

As I said before, in 2006, the teams who made the playoffs were

1-5 and the other 3 were before 16 in bullpen ERA

 

In 2005, the teams who made the playoffs were

2,3, 6, 7, 10, 21, 22, 29 in bullpen ERA. 21 and 29 were NY and Boston, both teams just slugging their way to the playoffs. 22 was Atlanta, and obviously they were an anomaly in the putrid NL east that season.

 

Last season, the sox finished 21st. Subtract Papelbon and the sox drop to 28th. They have since added 3 players, 2 of which combined to have an era that would RAISE that 28th ranked ERA and the other is an unknown japanese guy who sounds like a matchup lefty by scouting report. And as I showed above, only 3 teams of the 16 participants in the playoffs over the past 2 seasons had BP era's in the bottom third and made it to the playoffs. 2 of those teams mashed their way there, and the other was a fluke. I find it hard to believe that the sox will have a similar offense to the thousand run mashers they had from 03-05. The bump in SP should help a bit, but then again, the rotation is littered with question marks. I see the sox entire staff as a very fragile mix, but one that has huge potential in the starters role. But, one injury to the rotation and there arent any fallback options worth their salt. That means more lean on the pen, which is extremely fragile to begin with. As it stands, the sox dont have any contingency plans on the staff. That hurts.

 

What if Matsuzaka hurts his arm after the huge workload in his storied japanese career?

What if Beckett goes back to what worked and misses half the season with blisters?

What if Schilling shows that the end of last season was not a fluke and wears down?

What if Papelbon's shoulder isnt fully healed?

 

I know nobody in their right mind wants to think about this on December 31st, but what if those questions above become viable during the season? Snyder moves into the rotation? A weak Lester moves into the rotation? what does that force? More innings on the pen. This team is one that really needs to have a strong pen as the minor league options are not ready for bear and there are no options available to step in should someone go down for an extended period of time. This makes the pen that much more important and will make its weakness that much more glaring.