Matsuzaka the New Nomo?

[He Hate Me]

Out of sheer boredom (at work) and jealousy (you got Matsu, we didn't), I decided to look up the stats of these two while they were in Japan and came up with a couple of very interesting lines.

 

Japanese Careers (Nomo 5 years, 139 Games. Mastuzaka 8 years, 204 Games)

Nomo - 78-46, 3.19 ERA, 1204 K

Mastsuzaka - 108-60, 3.00 ERA, 1355 K

 

These are very basic numbers obviously and don't have stuff like WHIP or BB. Nomo had a .629 winning percentage, Matsu had a .642 winning percentage. Nomo got a decision in 89% of his games (I don't know if they were all starts or not). Matsu got a decision in 82% of his starts (again, I don't know if they were all starts).

 

If anyone has a better site than http://www.japaneseballplayers.com, I'd be more than happy to see a more detailed comparison.

[NYH]

We got an indication of Matsuzaka's talent at the WBC. He's no Nomo

[He Hate Me]

in 1995, his first year in the bigs. Nomo had 28 starts, 4 CG with 3 SHO, and stuck out 11 batters per 9IP. He also sported a 1.05 WHIP.

 

I wonder what you would say if Matsu had this kind of year.

[jacksonianmarch]

admittedly, the WBC did not have the games best and those that were there were in ST form. He will have some issues with trying to handle the MLB at full speed. It wont be this easy.

[He Hate Me]

The WBC is a non issue for me. Career stats are a much better indication.

[ORS]

It begins.

 

I forget where I read it, but Matsuzaka's BB rate was significantly better than Nomo's (in Japan). I'm going to hold off on predictions since the only time I've watched him live with an MLB ball was the WBC. From the looks of his stuff though, with control he could be very successful in this league. He moves it both ways with the split/slider combo to compliment his good FB. If those pitches turn out as good as they look on youtube, he'll be a stopper, IMO.

[Bud]

Matsuzaka will be WAAAAAY better than Nomo! You will see!

[He Hate Me]

As I pointed out, Nomo's rookie year is even better than Johan Santana's 2006 Cy Young season. Go look at the stats for yourselves. The only thing off is Nomo's wins.

[jacksonianmarch]

Matsu's walk rate ws much better than Nomo's. I debated this on a yankee site that I went on for a little while and it shows that Matsuzaka was significantly better in his last 3 yrs than Nomo was. Lets not fool ourselves. The guy has the tools and the resume that says he should be damn good for a long time.

[Cocos Disciples]

I just get a feeling that Matuszaka is gonna be a very effective pitcher. Nothing to back it up...just a feeling. And a hope.

[example1]

10 posts and no counter-stats?

 

Okay.

 

I posted this earlier:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/showthread.php?p=205676&highlight=Nomo#post205676

 

Someone on another site posted these K/BB ratios for players coming to the US.

 

Nomo: 1.72

Irabu: 2.90

Ishii: 2.36

Matsuzaka: 4.83

 

That's not even close, truth be told. He/she then compared that to the best MLB #'s from 06:

 

Curt Schilling: 6.54

Johan Santana: 5.21

Mike Mussina: 4.91

 

Control and K's are trends that tend to stay with players across different levels of competition. The ability to make people swing and miss, and the ability to throw the ball over the plate instead of missing the plate, are skills that don't leave you. Deception is something you have or you don't. It may fluctuate a bit as competition gets tougher, but there is nothing to say that MLB hitters would have hit more than 5% of the balls that the Japanese players missed. There is no way to quantify it without really guessing.

 

 

 

Also, here's a google video of the history of Matsuzaka/Matsui at-bats and Matsuzaka/Ichiro at-bats. He's got sick stuff to both of those lefties. His changeup is devistating as is his fastball.

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4513631953510592857&q=matsuzaka&hl=en

 

The entire thing is in japapnese, but at the end they have a funny animation with the Sox schedule, with the early season games against the Mariners and yankees highlighted. Good stuff.

[RedSoxRooter]

153 km/h?

[jacksonianmarch]

actually, K's and BB's sometimes do change. Look at Ishii. The guy's BB rate went insane in the MLB, even though they were high before. Irabu's actually went down but his hits went way up.

[example1]

153 km/h?

 

Yup, he's hitting 95 there. He can reach back when he needs to.

[He Hate Me]

10 posts and no counter-stats?

 

Okay.

 

I posted this earlier:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/showthread.php?p=205676&highlight=Nomo#post205676

 

Someone on another site posted these K/BB ratios for players coming to the US.

 

Nomo: 1.72

Irabu: 2.90

Ishii: 2.36

Matsuzaka: 4.83

 

That's not even close, truth be told. He/she then compared that to the best MLB #'s from 06:

 

Curt Schilling: 6.54

Johan Santana: 5.21

Mike Mussina: 4.91

 

Control and K's are trends that tend to stay with players across different levels of competition. The ability to make people swing and miss, and the ability to throw the ball over the plate instead of missing the plate, are skills that don't leave you. Deception is something you have or you don't. It may fluctuate a bit as competition gets tougher, but there is nothing to say that MLB hitters would have hit more than 5% of the balls that the Japanese players missed. There is no way to quantify it without really guessing.

 

 

 

Also, here's a google video of the history of Matsuzaka/Matsui at-bats and Matsuzaka/Ichiro at-bats. He's got sick stuff to both of those lefties. His changeup is devistating as is his fastball.

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4513631953510592857&q=matsuzaka&hl=en

 

The entire thing is in japapnese, but at the end they have a funny animation with the Sox schedule, with the early season games against the Mariners and yankees highlighted. Good stuff.

 

good stuff there. Nomo had a horrendous K/BB ratio in Japan didn't he lol.

 

Though you do have to admit if Matsu's numbers for the first two years are anywhere close to Nomo's first tweo years, RSN would be doing cartwheels and rightfully so.

[a700hitter]

Let's not forget that he will only be the #3 starter on this team.

[TedWilliams101]

With out the pressure of being our #1 starter, i think he's going to do great things.

[Gom]

It begins.

 

I forget where I read it, but Matsuzaka's BB rate was significantly better than Nomo's (in Japan). I'm going to hold off on predictions since the only time I've watched him live with an MLB ball was the WBC. From the looks of his stuff though, with control he could be very successful in this league. He moves it both ways with the split/slider combo to compliment his good FB. If those pitches turn out as good as they look on youtube, he'll be a stopper, IMO.

 

This guy could be anywhere from Irabu to Santana. I think he will be a little better than Contreras. A weak #1 or strong #2 is my guess.

[TedWilliams101]

I think he will be far better than Contreras. I don't think Contreras' stuff is even close to as good as Matsuzaka. I see Matsuzaka w/ better command, more pitches, and better breaking pitches.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think he will be far better than Contreras. I don't think Contreras' stuff is even close to as good as Matsuzaka. I see Matsuzaka w/ better command' date=' more pitches, and better breaking pitches.[/quote']

 

whoa whoa whoa. Are you seriously trying to pull a fast one here? Contreras had ace style dominant stuff. Fastball in the 96-98 range, a plus plus splitter and a plus slider. I have seen Matsuzaka a few times. I have seen Contreras a ton. His "stuff" is second to none. When he is on, he might be the most unbeatable pitcher I have ever seen. Granted, it is so few and far between and he loses it so quickly that I wouldnt hold my breath.

 

Matsuzaka's "stuff" is very good. But there are only a few pitchers that I have seen with better stuff that Contreras. Dont fool yourself. Matsuzaka has some very good stuff, but until you actually see it in season, dont compare it to someone whose raw stuff is flat out phenomenal.

[MANNYHOF24]

This guy could be anywhere from Irabu to Santana. I think he will be a little better than Contreras. A weak #1 or strong #2 is my guess.

 

Our with his stuff and control I would predict solid number 1

[Mr Crunchy]

the yanks dumped contreras cause we owned his ass here in boston

georgie felt like a fool watching this guy get annilihated every time he pitched against the sox...

when he went to chicago and his family finally all made it out of castros gulag

he didnt have the likes of little joel sherman and mike the puke lupica calling out his courage on a daily basis hence his recovery

 

none of us here know what matsusaka will deliver to the table

 

in a league where tuffy rhodes hits 50 hrs its impossible to predict a 20w 200k 2.50 era and

in a league where gabe kapler and lou merloni couldnt hit kate holmes weight

its impossible to say he will do an irabu or worse

 

if he wins 15,pitches 200 innings and gives us a 4.00 era im pleased

anything above is gravy

anything less will be a let down but not totally unexpected either