Lugo or first rounder, sox in a quandary

[jacksonianmarch]

Now that the JD Drew sweepstakes are essentially over and the sox got off scot free without giving up their first rounder, they are in a bind over whether to seriously pursue Julio Lugo. Lugo will be offered arbitration and as a class A FA, he will command both a 1st rounder and a sandwich pick (not given by the sox btw) as compensation. The sox, having saved their first rounder in the posting win of Matsuzaka and in the contract wording of Drew, are reluctant to part with a first round pick as well as 4 yrs 36 mil it would take to sign him. This likely would leave the sox without a solid SS candidate, and with the other defensive options being taken off the market (Counsell is now gone), it likely means the sox would go into the yr with Cora as their starting SS. I was wondering how you all felt about this. Here is the SI link.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_heyman/12/01/scoop.friday/2.html

[Cocos Disciples]

Give up a f***ing draft pick. Once again, as a700hitter would say, it's just a chance that they'll become as good as Lugo...while Lugo is as good as Lugo. I would obviously rather have the draft pick than not have the draft pick, but don't have it come down to Cora and a 1st rounder or Lugo.

[TGov]

I dont know, its a tough decision, I would love to have Lugo on the team hes a great SS, but I would hate to give up a draft pick... but theres no way Cora can start, I mean I dont see him as a starter... he doesnt bring a bat either, Lugo brings defense and offense...but also a high pricetag

[Cocos Disciples]

Are you joking?

 

It's a very good major league player, or a kid who with the right development, right treatment and everything, might become as good as the major league talent.

[Bosoxwest]

Yup, this pretty much sucks. $9M a year (for four years) for Lugo whose on the wrong side of 30 and wilted in LA, plus giving up a first-rounder, or Cora. Brutal. I'm now leaning to the "throw something at the Rockies for Clint Barmes and see if he can be taught to hit" camp. I'm half-joking of course, but there is some fear that Lugo will regress in the pressure dome, and that's a lot of money for his 2002-3 self. What are you gonna do?

 

In a semi-related note, Mr. Garciaparra Mia Hamm was just interviewed on ESPN. Sadly, the interviewer failed to ask about how many times Nomar obsessively adjusted his "glove" while in the saddle.

[rician blast]

Now that the JD Drew sweepstakes are essentially over and the sox got off scot free without giving up their first rounder, they are in a bind over whether to seriously pursue Julio Lugo. Lugo will be offered arbitration and as a class A FA, he will command both a 1st rounder and a sandwich pick (not given by the sox btw) as compensation. The sox, having saved their first rounder in the posting win of Matsuzaka and in the contract wording of Drew, are reluctant to part with a first round pick as well as 4 yrs 36 mil it would take to sign him. This likely would leave the sox without a solid SS candidate, and with the other defensive options being taken off the market (Counsell is now gone), it likely means the sox would go into the yr with Cora as their starting SS. I was wondering how you all felt about this. Here is the SI link.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_heyman/12/01/scoop.friday/2.html

 

 

There's got to be more to it.

 

If the issue was losing a 1st round pick and getting Lugo vs. going into 2007 with no solid SS, then there'd be no decision to make, IMO. I can't see how they'd proceed with the SS position unfilled, simply to save a draft pick that more often than not turns out to be nothing special.

 

If the Sox are serious that this is a real issue, it must mean that they have other ideas for SS besides Pedroia or Cora. My guess is it is posturing while they work other options and hope Lugo's price comes down.

[jacksonianmarch]

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/16142549.htm

 

the plot thickens. You see, the red sox thought that they had a spot for Loretta to go. He was expected to sign in SF and if the sox offered him arb, then the sox would have gotten a draft pick back that would compensate them in their efforts to sign Lugo. But with the giants resigning Ray Durham, the Loretta deal seems less likely and the sox now may not offer him arb. He is the only FA who would garner 1st round payment for signing, and without him, the sox will be even further reluctant to pursue Lugo.

[nickw308810]

If the Red Sox FO thinks that Lugo can be a solid SS here for the next few years, than he has to be signed. Especially if they think he can hit leadoff for us. Sure, losing a draft pick blows, but it is only one pick, and I think in the last two years we have proved we can find talent throughout the draft. What we can't have happen is Lugo turn into another Renteria. One option that I wouldn't mind seeing, is bringing Loretta back and letting Pedroia take SS. Youkilus leading off and Loretta batting 2nd sounds pretty good. High on base guys getting on for Ortiz, hopefully Manny, then Drew. Just an idea.

[adam123]

we have this sensless debate all the time why did we not just re sign cabrera he was to expensive only hit in every playoff game .. than it was rent an wreck ... than we ge defensive stud a- gone .... why cant we just hold on to one and atleast letthem get comfortable .. no more one year and gone

[adam123]

never been a lugo fan .. o cab ..better nomah better .... hell a gone... better glove . we had least errors in red sox history ... but thats no good enough ... all i know is lugo better be great

[example1]

we have this sensless debate all the time why did we not just re sign cabrera he was to expensive only hit in every playoff game .. than it was rent an wreck ... than we ge defensive stud a- gone .... why cant we just hold on to one and atleast letthem get comfortable .. no more one year and gone

 

It's not the Sox fault that Gonzo wanted multiple years to hit like Mendoza. I think the blame lies somewhere between not signing O-Cab and trading Hanley. Between those two players there was at least ONE quality MLB SS. Hanley sure would have been nice... but I like Beckett and prefer watching good pitching to good hitting, all things being equal.

[adam123]

It's not the Sox fault that Gonzo wanted multiple years to hit like Mendoza. I think the blame lies somewhere between not signing O-Cab and trading Hanley. Between those two players there was at least ONE quality MLB SS. Hanley sure would have been nice... but I like Beckett and prefer watching good pitching to good hitting' date=' all things being equal.[/quote']

 

your totally right i forgot hanley ... i think we made a big mistake not signing o cab .. i miss that guy he had it all .. he sure was great in 04 run

[adam123]

i would not want beltre if you paid us .. that guys a bust

[example1]

your totally right i forgot hanley ... i think we made a big mistake not signing o cab .. i miss that guy he had it all .. he sure was great in 04 run

 

Over the long haul he's not that great though. The Angels would be fine without him at this point. That said, he's got style and plays the game with flare, which makes watching the games more fun. He's a good, slightly above average MLB SS.

[Bosoxwest]

Sure' date=' losing a draft pick blows, but it is only one pick, and I think in the last two years we have proved we can find talent throughout the draft. [/quote']

 

This is true, but the new CBA will reduce our ability to use our financial strength to sign players over slot value in later rounds as we've done the past few years. Realistically, that first round pick and perhaps the sandwich/second round picks are our best chance to get an impact player in the draft going forward.

 

I think we still sign Lugo unless a deal is made, but it hurts.

[Gom]

I can't believe that some guys are worried about a first round pick when you can get Lugo. Are you guys serious? Do you know how many picks are in a draft? Do you know how many players are drafted who actually make the big leagues?

 

We have now left the sublime and gone to the ridiculous.

[Bosoxwest]

I can't believe that some guys are worried about a first round pick when you can get Lugo. Are you guys serious? Do you know how many picks are in a draft? Do you know how many players are drafted who actually make the big leagues?

 

We have now left the sublime and gone to the ridiculous.

 

Somewhere in there there's a fair point, but you're overvaluing Lugo and undervaluing the draft pick under the new CBA. The painful aspect of this scenario is that in order to vastly overpay for for a guy like Lugo (and Drew, and Dice, and Tek) you have to balance that with players you develop yourself, and the Sox understand that.

 

Now, in the past, losing a first round pick hurt, but was mitigated for teams like the Yanks and Sox because they could wait and get "signability issue" guys in the later rounds because small-market teams couldn't afford to. Under the new CBA these small-market teams will be compensated for going after one of those guys and losing him, so the draftees are much more likely to go according to slot.

 

As you correctly noted, very few guys drafted become impact players in the MLB. This is almost exponentially true for every player drafted AFTER the first and second round. Philly at SOSH did a great study here, and this was based on the old method of signing players above slot in later rounds after they dropped because Boras was their agent or whatnot. Now the numbers will skew even higher for the top picks.

 

Long story short, teams need first round picks to develop premium talent. Obviously there are international signings and long-shot "diamond in the rough" signings, but the probabilities lie in going with the nationally recognized top tier draftees.

 

Again, the Sox are backed into a corner here and probably will have to sign Lugo or get creative, but nobody should be particularly pleased about the Lugo signing from a value perspective.

[ORS]

Somewhere in there there's a fair point, but you're overvaluing Lugo and undervaluing the draft pick under the new CBA. The painful aspect of this scenario is that in order to vastly overpay for for a guy like Lugo (and Drew, and Dice, and Tek) you have to balance that with players you develop yourself, and the Sox understand that.

 

Now, in the past, losing a first round pick hurt, but was mitigated for teams like the Yanks and Sox because they could wait and get "signability issue" guys in the later rounds because small-market teams couldn't afford to. Under the new CBA these small-market teams will be compensated for going after one of those guys and losing him, so the draftees are much more likely to go according to slot.

 

As you correctly noted, very few guys drafted become impact players in the MLB. This is almost exponentially true for every player drafted AFTER the first and second round. Philly at SOSH did a great study here, and this was based on the old method of signing players above slot in later rounds after they dropped because Boras was their agent or whatnot. Now the numbers will skew even higher for the top picks.

 

Long story short, teams need first round picks to develop premium talent. Obviously there are international signings and long-shot "diamond in the rough" signings, but the probabilities lie in going with the nationally recognized top tier draftees.

 

Again, the Sox are backed into a corner here and probably will have to sign Lugo or get creative, but nobody should be particularly pleased about the Lugo signing from a value perspective.

It doesn't help that this year's draft is looking pretty deep with talent. Picking for the first time at the 80th or 90th slot will hurt. At least they have two consecutive excellent drafts to fall back on.

[AirPantapas]

Lugo did so bad in LA, he did nothing offensively as well as playing bad defense.

 

I wouldn't sign him at all.

[riverside sluggers]

Lugo did so bad in LA, he did nothing offensively as well as playing bad defense.

 

I wouldn't sign him at all.

 

Sox can not judge on a bad 2nd half about his offense taking a slide. He rarely had consistent playing time with the Dodgers and had to deal with the league change. Put him in Fenway Park, in division he is used to, against pitchers he's faced before, Id expect a solid 2007 season from him.

 

Now if you dont want Lugo, who is to be had as the starter?

[AirPantapas]

Sox can not judge on a bad 2nd half about his offense taking a slide. He rarely had consistent playing time in the Dodgers and had to deal with the league change. Put him in Fenway Park, in division he is used to, against pitchers he's faced before, Id expect a solid 2007 season from him.

 

Now if you dont want Lugo, who is to be had as the starter?

 

I don't know who we could get as SS, but 8-9million a year for Lugo I don't know.

[phillysoxfan115]

We are already guaranteed a supplemental 1st rounder for A-Gon, and if Foule signs we get another. However, Lugo most definitely does not deserve 8 mill, even in this market. He's never batted .300, never had an OBP over .362, He's played 5 playoff games and only gotten 1 hit!!! It's a toss-up in my mind, I don't mind losing the pick, but I'd rather see it go to relief pitching, just because I think Lugo is trash.