Why do you guys like Theo?

[example1]

I think something else to consider with Theo, and the front office in general, is their overall approach, their vision, if you will, of how to build a ballclub. When they took over, their primary focus was getting "unappreciated value" - the Bill James theory - and went looking for OBP guys. Your Millars, your Billy Muellers. Well, that worked great for a couple of years, culminating in 2004. They were fairly cutting edge up until that point. Now, every team looks for unappreciated value and overpays for it. Unappriciated value is next to impossible to find now. So, they sold off their now-appreciated value and cashed in on draft picks - a strategy shift. That should be coming to fruition in the next year or so as the guys they scooped up with all those compensatory picks (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholtz, Bard, etc) come up to the bigs. The potential Manny trade could be seen as the last move within this mindset, and shifting into the new mindset: Now that the compensatory draft picks are going bye-bye, they are shifting paradigms yet again, and throwing money out there to boslter the youngsters. Matsuzaka, Drew, etc. It hasn't been perfect, but I think that the front office is trying to stay ahead of the curve with their philosophies.

 

I don't know where that is all going to, it just occured to me.:dunno:

 

I don't think the compensatory picks are done in the new CBA and Pedroia was a straight-up draft pick, but this is as nice a description of it as I've seen. The part about unappreciated value is especially spot-on. I think they've got their metrics and their particular projection tools and I, for one, assume they know what they're talking about. Most of us spend a fair amount of time reading critical material about baseball, statitistics, sabermetric theory, etc., and we don't believe its a bunch of crap.

 

The hard part is mining all of the data to find the statistics that contribute to winning and is available. OBP + SLG = OPS was a pretty good tool to create to look at value. Now everyone looks at OBP and its not a unappreciated value anymore. The hope is to find the next great metric, but its kind of like trying to find a theory about "the Truth": you can describe it in many ways but the next guy can always describe it better; eventually you'll find that the guys who are the best are the ones who strike guys out, get hits, hit HRs, score runs, etc., just like baseball fans have always believed. There is no stat that will perfectly describe the best players, but those players will show up on the field for sure.

 

In other words, the moneyball phenomenon appears to have just included more people into the "valuable" club, rather than redefining value itself. Now its guys who hit HRs, 2Bs, have a high average or OBP who are valuable offensively. There's not really any other type of player waiting in the wings... that could be it.

 

In which case it is like back to the days of just enormous spending on players no matter what team you were. The Sox may have realized that their attempts to emulate Oakland (even to a small degree) wouldn't push them over the top. They're not going to be frivilous with their money, but look at todays climate! Any hope of getting a solid power hitting RF for 8-9 million dollars (which seems more than reasonable) is out the window. Its 14+ at this point. There can be no saving in this climate. None. The teams that have it either need to spend of sink and I think we can see how many are spending at this point.

[Gom]

But what is the risidual effect of a WS win? I mean, does winning two instead of one somehow make losing the next year or two years down the road any easier? We know how not winning for 86 years feels, but at this point how much are we willing to sell the future for ONE more WS? Does having a decimated roster 2 years later with no hope of success become easier to swallow if you've won twice in recent years? How long does the effect last? How long do 2 WS victories last as a buffer for crappy baseball teams?

 

It seems to me that the Sox are much better off staying competitive every year, giving fans the ability to actually LOOK FORWARD to something. They've been competitive in 03, 04, 05 and for much of 06 (until guys like Snyder were pitching with a lineup headlined by Youkilis and Cora) and there's no reason to think that if they get Matsuzaka, Drew and a reasonable return/swap for Manny they won't be competitive again... especially if the Yankees don't find the pitching help they need.

 

I agree with you about 05, they could have won with Pedro and certainly would have been more competitive. But now, looking into the jaws of 2007 I'm not at all upset that the Sox of 05. Only one team won that year, it isn't like the sox LOST. EVERYBODY lost, the sox were one of them.

 

Since this is a very well-written post, and you have been polite, I respectfully disagree with you here. Take it from me, a serious Yankee fan...it is much better to WIN than to be competitive, and we are competitive every year. I'm starting to feel like a Braves fan now, going nowhere fast. Would you have traded your WS win in 2004 for going to the playoffs every year since 95 like us? No, you wouldn't.

 

The majority of fans, players, owners, etc. want to win. I for one would trade three losing seasons for one world series champion, rather than being competitive every year. If we won one season every four, thats 25 Championships in 100 years. I'll take it.

 

Teams have windows. The window on both the Yankees and Red Sox has passed. We are both trying to re-open it, but our core is disappearing, the players who got us our championship(s). Teams like the Tigers, Mets, Twins, Angels, etc., are coming into their own. Their rosters have a lot more potential than ours do, respectively. The advantage of money to keep that window open helps...but when the sun sets on Papi and Manny, and Derek and Mo on our end...it aint gonna be easy. Win while you can. That's my philosophy.

 

One team wins. The rest are losers. That's the way I see it.

[example1]

Since this is a very well-written post, and you have been polite, I respectfully disagree with you here. Take it from me, a serious Yankee fan...it is much better to WIN than to be competitive, and we are competitive every year. I'm starting to feel like a Braves fan now, going nowhere fast. Would you have traded your WS win in 2004 for going to the playoffs every year since 95 like us? No, you wouldn't.

 

The majority of fans, players, owners, etc. want to win. I for one would trade three losing seasons for one world series champion, rather than being competitive every year. If we won one season every four, thats 25 Championships in 100 years. I'll take it.

 

Teams have windows. The window on both the Yankees and Red Sox has passed. We are both trying to re-open it, but our core is disappearing, the players who got us our championship(s). Teams like the Tigers, Mets, Twins, Angels, etc., are coming into their own. Their rosters have a lot more potential than ours do, respectively. The advantage of money to keep that window open helps...but when the sun sets on Papi and Manny, and Derek and Mo on our end...it aint gonna be easy. Win while you can. That's my philosophy.

 

One team wins. The rest are losers. That's the way I see it.

 

 

That's the whole point though. It doesn't have to be a dark day. What do the sox have to look forward to? A bunch of players that most other teams would love to have. The sox have, intelligently, not allowed there to be a severe bump in the road while waiting for talent to develop. You can be somewhat cynical, anti-Red Sox at times, but you have to admit that they have done a great job of creating a solid farm system that is only getting stronger.

 

They are drafting experienced college players with good eyes for the plate, and pitchers who throw hard. Bowden, Buchholz and Bard are all very strong pitchers. Papelbon and Lester are good too. Beckett and, hopefully, Matsuzaka to go along with Hansen and Delcarmen. 5 years from now, if the sox make no moves, I think I just listed 9 of the sox pitchers. I think that's one of many realistic possibilities.

 

Add to that the usual spending on bigger names and trades and whatnot and you already have a good core. And those guys are just the top tier pitchers. It didn't mention guys like Cox and Masterson, who have strong relief potential as well.

 

 

I have to respectfully take your "competitiveness" comments with a grain of salt. Afterall, I imagine it is frustrating to be competitive and not win the world series. Sure, you have to get all excited for those playoff games and then get disappointed when the team ultimately falls short.

 

But I swear to you, if the Yankees fell into the kind of pit that the sox did in '06 with the promise of more to come... you would stop watching. I know I did and I watch every Sox game I can. I just did something else with my 3 hours... I know, its a horrible bandwagon thing to do but they were godawful . This year they were HORRIBLE by the end of the season. Imagine having a team like that every year. Imagine being a Royals fan, or a D-Rays fan or a Mariners fan.

 

Personally, I enjoy the pennant chase and I don't think there has been any one quality that has defined the past 5 or so winners of the world series. In other words, there is no receipe for success. If there were the Yankees would have purchased and utiliezed it by now. Teams "compete" to get into the playoffs and then "compete" for the world series. Having a team that is "competitive" does not mean "only competitive"--as if it were not quite enough--competitive means "has a reasonable chance to win".

 

Now, if I have to choose between having a "reasonable chance to win" year after year, or winning one season for sure, I would choose the former (assuming I'm not coming off an 86 year drought, which we're not).

 

Remember, the Red Sox did not win in 2004 necessarily because they were the better team. I think they were the better team because of what they overcame, but it all came down to a foul-ball here, a called strike there, a stolen base, and seeing-eye single. If that's a ground out, four feet to the left, Roberts may not score and the sox lose and we have won ZERO WS. We won by a) being competitive and being lucky. That's all you can ever do.

 

How many times out of 100 do you think the Tigers pitchers can make accurate throws to a base? I would be its in the 90% range, if not higher. St. Louis was lucky to win. White Sox series against the Angels, a few calls for Chicago and they end up taking what should have been a competitive series rather easily.

 

You can't buy yourself a stolen base or a seeing eye single, but you may be able to buy and draft your way to the point where you can gamble on one of those things and hope its your year. The Yankees do that every single year and it just hasn't gone their way.

[Gom]

Quite possibly the best post I've ever read [here or anywhere else] that disagrees with my opinion.

 

I would still take one championship every few years over being competitive every season, but that is nothing more than a personal choice.

 

For all of you genetic misfits [there is a reason why I state this, you'll see] who have to debate with me because I am a Yankee fan [not to mention that I make all of you who debate me look foolish] please go back and re-read that post. That is how you argue your point. With concise, intelligent, valid points...that are rooted in COMMON SENSE.

 

I'm shocked you are from New England. Were you educated in New York, by any chance?

[a700hitter]

[not to mention that I make all of you who debate me look foolish]

You've had your ass kicked more than a mule going up hill with a full load.

[Cocos Disciples]

 

I'm shocked you are from New England. Were you educated in New York, by any chance?

 

My personal favorite.

[adam123]

this gom guy makes me laugh so much youd think he was really a red sox fan

[rician blast]

[not to mention that I make all of you who debate me look foolish]

 

wow, now this is perhaps the funniest thing GOM has ever posted!!!! this is a knee-slapper, a rib-tickler, a real gut-buster.

 

the not-very-pc bagels and lochs comment? nahh, that doesn't compare.

today's un-PC comment about starting the HFC? nope, this one has it by yards.

 

thanks for the entertainment, GOM, and keep up the jocularity. I think you've cemented your legacy here.

[Gom]

For all of you genetic misfits [there is a reason why I state this' date= you'll see] who have to debate with me because I am a Yankee fan

 

The previous four posts, by responding to them, are the genetic misfits I have spoken about. I told you there was a reason, LOL!

 

I'm glad you all secretly [and not so secretly] enjoy my posts. For genetic misfits, you guys are great.

[Cocos Disciples]

Enough with the f***ing brackets!

[rician blast]

The previous four posts, by responding to them, are the genetic misfits I have spoken about. I told you there was a reason, LOL!

 

I'm glad you all secretly [and not so secretly] enjoy my posts. For genetic misfits, you guys are great.

 

hmmm...genetic misfits? So now you are attacking our parents? unfortunately mine passed away not too long ago, within 6 months of each other, not due to any "genetic" shortcomings, but of cancer.

 

So the very folks you converse with here daily are considered, by yourself, to be "idiots" and "morons", and are now the product of inferior genetics?

 

Nice. Really nice work. Thanks for exposing yourself for what you really are, GOM.

[Gom]

hmmm...genetic misfits? So now you are attacking our parents? unfortunately mine passed away not too long ago, within 6 months of each other, not due to any "genetic" shortcomings, but of cancer.

 

So the very folks you converse with here daily are considered, by yourself, to be "idiots" and "morons", and are now the product of inferior genetics?

 

Nice. Really nice work. Thanks for exposing yourself for what you really are, GOM.

Lighten up bro. It's a joke. If your skin is too thin, leave.

 

Seriously, if someone like myself, who knows nothing about you or or your family, makes a broad reference to all in jest, and you take it seriously, you should examine yourself and deal with your issues in a timely fashion.

 

I've lost my mother to cancer in 1999, but when people make "mother jokes" unless they know my status, I never get upset with them.

 

Grow up Rician. I am sorry for the loss of your parents, especially in such a short period of time, as I would be sad for anyone, but to attribute a comment I made in jest to all as specifically attributed to you is ridiculous. I hope that this is your grief talking, and nothing else.

[rician blast]

Lighten up bro. It's a joke. If your skin is too thin, leave.

 

Grow up Rician. I am sorry for the loss of your parents, especially in such a short period of time, as I would be sad for anyone, but to attribute a comment I made in jest to all as specifically attributed to you is ridiculous. I hope that this is your grief talking, and nothing else.

 

 

Lighten up? Grow up? This just keeps getting better. I'd say your tirade above indicates that its you that should lighten up.

 

And as always you entirely missed the point of the post. It was not to attribute your comment to me, but simply to point out that, in general, your postings in this forum are often inciteful and serve no purpose other than to bust balls. The name calling and insults and baiting grow old...yet I'm somehow the one who needs to grow up?

 

I assure you I did not take your post seriously and was not offended, I just was trying to make a point without having to spell it out to you. I apologize for attempting to shed light on the shortcomings of your posting habits in hopes that you might refrain from such boorish postings and actually develop some degree of credibility here amongst the Sox faithful. It was all for you, GOM...see my benevolence knows few boundaries..but since you are not of interested I'll leave you to your own devices.

 

I'm done with this issue...movin' on.

[Gom]

Lighten up? Grow up? This just keeps getting better. I'd say your tirade above indicates that its you that should lighten up.

 

And as always you entirely missed the point of the post. It was not to attribute your comment to me, but simply to point out that, in general, your postings in this forum are often inciteful and serve no purpose other than to bust balls. The name calling and insults and baiting grow old...yet I'm somehow the one who needs to grow up?

 

I assure you I did not take your post seriously and was not offended, I just was trying to make a point without having to spell it out to you. I apologize for attempting to shed light on the shortcomings of your posting habits in hopes that you might refrain from such boorish postings and actually develop some degree of credibility here amongst the Sox faithful. It was all for you, GOM...see my benevolence knows few boundaries..but since you are not of interested I'll leave you to your own devices.

 

I'm done with this issue...movin' on.

 

Do I incite? Only those with lower intellects or low self-esteem. Bust balls? Sure, sometimes. Why not? It's a forum of fans of the team of my hated rivals. I do it in fun, and most people see that. Sorry you don't. I only wish I was here in 2003, but glad I missed 2004.

 

Overall, Rician, I like your posts. Don't insult anyone's intelligence here by saying that you didn't intend to elicit some sympathy by bringing up the passing of your parents. What did you expect me to say when you mentioned you lost your parents within six months? Good riddance? Come on, buddy.

 

Anytime anyone mentions the passing of a loved one, the normal human response is sympathetic. So, once again, sorry for your loved ones passing, but if anyone here who doesn't know me personally takes anything I say here personally, that person needs to go out, get drunk, and come home with the last, fat chick in the local bar.

 

At least that way you'd really have issues to work out.

[rician blast]

Do I incite? Only those with lower intellects or low self-esteem. Bust balls? Sure, sometimes. Why not? It's a forum of fans of the team of my hated rivals. I do it in fun, and most people see that. Sorry you don't. I only wish I was here in 2003, but glad I missed 2004.

 

Overall, Rician, I like your posts. Don't insult anyone's intelligence here by saying that you didn't intend to elicit some sympathy by bringing up the passing of your parents. What did you expect me to say when you mentioned you lost your parents within six months? Good riddance? Come on, buddy.

 

Anytime anyone mentions the passing of a loved one, the normal human response is sympathetic. So, once again, sorry for your loved ones passing, but if anyone here who doesn't know me personally takes anything I say here personally, that person needs to go out, get drunk, and come home with the last, fat chick in the local bar.

 

At least that way you'd really have issues to work out.

 

:wtf:

 

Can't let go, huh? Didn't I say "done with this issue" and "movin' on" after I went to great lengths to explain the reason for my post, highlight the general perception of your posts and illustrate how you go too far sometimes?

 

This is priceless. What's really funny is that you say you only incite those with lower intellects and self-esteem...and you said those who respond to your post are the genetic misfits...yet you keep responding to posts by those same supposedly inferior individuals. So by your OWN measure, where does that leave you on your scale? Right...rock bottom.

 

Keep it up, GOMster. You're a comedic genius, but the joke is really on you. Thanks for the entertainment.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Alright alright, maybe I'll get jumped on here for saying this...but I get a kick out of Gom. And not because I think his posts are all ridiculous (sure, some of them are, but then again, so are some of mine, so are some of yours, and so forth)...I think he's got a lot of intelligent things to say sometimes. I think he has as much of a reason to post here and right to post here as everyone else. Everyone here's just gotta relax. We're not sitting in church, no one is really (at least not to my knowledge) out to hurt anyone by anything that they say...we're a bunch of guys (and a few girls) hanging out bullshitting about baseball. Take it at face value and be easy guys, common.

 

Aaaaaaaand that being said...going back to the actual title of this thread...if Theo signs Drew as eeeeeeeeeveryone expects him to for approximately $15 mil a year, and JD doesn't hit 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, and play at least 140 games...I will NOT like Theo anymore. I can't believe the terms of this deal that are being thrown around...it goes against EVERYTHING Theo has stood for these past couple of years. JD isn't worth that kind of money, not on his best healthy day...no way, no how. You really want JD Drew making I think two years was enough of a freebie for him after bringing us 04. Let's keep in mind guys, that not only did he bring us 04, but he also helped dismantle the 04 team in the following years.

 

I was actually on Jim Rome the other day on a huge rant about Theo...anyone hear me?!?

 

Hey...one last thing...I'm not sure if anyone's mentioned this yet...but would anyone be in favor of the Sox signing Mulder to a heavy incentive-laden deal? This guy was one of the top lefties in the league, not to mention a freaking HORSE before he had the arm problems...I'd be whole-heartedly in favor of it and am surprised we haven't heard about at least an inquiry.

[rician blast]

Hey...one last thing...I'm not sure if anyone's mentioned this yet...but would anyone be in favor of the Sox signing Mulder to a heavy incentive-laden deal? This guy was one of the top lefties in the league, not to mention a freaking HORSE before he had the arm problems...I'd be whole-heartedly in favor of it and am surprised we haven't heard about at least an inquiry.

 

Funny you should mention Mulder, I was just wondering about where he'd land this a.m.

 

I think any deal would have to be incentive-laden, since he's coming off surgery. But you are right, when the Cards picked him up he was considered a top of the rotation guy. He sucked last year before he went down, but perhaps that was the looming arm-troubles talking. I'm guessing someone takes a shot at him, but wonder if right now he and his agent are playing it based on his 2001-2005 seasons and trying to discount the '06 season.

 

I'd be for the Sox taking a shot at him.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Funny you should mention Mulder, I was just wondering about where he'd land this a.m.

 

I think any deal would have to be incentive-laden, since he's coming off surgery. But you are right, when the Cards picked him up he was considered a top of the rotation guy. He sucked last year before he went down, but perhaps that was the looming arm-troubles talking. I'm guessing someone takes a shot at him, but wonder if right now he and his agent are playing it based on his 2001-2005 seasons and trying to discount the '06 season.

 

I'd be for the Sox taking a shot at him.

 

He met with the DBacks the other day...the freaking DBacks. If he pitches well for them and the Sox didn't even make a run at him, I'm going to be piiiiiiiiiissed.

[rician blast]

He met with the DBacks the other day...the freaking DBacks. If he pitches well for them and the Sox didn't even make a run at him' date=' I'm going to be piiiiiiiiiissed.[/quote']

 

 

Texas, SD and San Fran were also rumored interested and supposedly the Orioles have some mild interest. Let's face it, he's not gonna fly under the radar, and I'm sure the Sox FO is or has considered whether Mulder would be a fit or not.

[BSN07]

Well he might not even be ready for the 07 season. But there has been said to be like 12-15 teams looking at him including, Baltimore( which scares because anyone BAL. wants is bad news:)), AZ,STL,TEX,TOR,TB,SF,LA, those are the ones I can think of off the top of my head. So there's a market for him for sure. But it might be sign him now for cheap, and hope he pitches well for you in 08. But with players today he might beable to do some good in 07.

[rician blast]

i thought I read he was going to start throwing in January '07 and be ready in the late spring...unless I'm thinking of someone else.

[BSN07]

Rican, you may very well be right. I haven't read anything on him recently, but from something I read awhile back said not to count on him too much in 07. But like I said things might have changed. If I come across anything concrete I'll post it.

[Gom]

LOL, HeadofSoxNation...a few of you understand what my role is here. It's just baseball...I'm not going to agree with you guys on most things due to the fact of my allegiance, but the main reason I come here is the fact that I think most of your posts are off base as Sox fans, but a lot of them are very intelligent and insightful. Basically, what HeadofSoxNation said about me in reverese.

 

You have joined the list of people I would drink with if ever in Boston. Except you are in Syracuse. What the hell is a Sox fan doing in Syracuse.

 

That said, Mulder is a low ristk, high reward player. Everyone should check him out, to be honest.

[rician blast]

From MLB.Com, 11/29/06

 

Mulder, 29, is coming off an injury-shortened season during which he went 6-7 with a 7.14 ERA. The left-hander was bothered by his shoulder throughout the year and eventually underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a rotator cuff tear in mid-September.

 

When he'll be able to pitch again is unclear, but according to Clifton, there were a few things that were certain.

 

One is that Mulder is four weeks ahead of schedule, and the southpaw will start a throwing program in early January. After that, Clifton said, it should be eight weeks before Mulder is able to throw off a mound, which would be around the first or second week of March.

 

"After that, there are no rules, so to speak -- no timetable," Clifton said. "How he feels will determine how he progresses."

 

Since there are some unknowns, could be teams are hangin on for a while til more progress is made. The worst case scenario would be to sign him and have him have a major setback before we even get out of early December. Of course there's the other side of the coin, where a team waits too long and he's scoffed up by someone.

 

Since it ain't my money I say to the Sox FO grab him.

[jacksonianmarch]

He met with the DBacks the other day...the freaking DBacks. If he pitches well for them and the Sox didn't even make a run at him' date=' I'm going to be piiiiiiiiiissed.[/quote']

 

right now the sox have no open slots in their rotation. There are other pressing needs that SP will not help with.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

right now the sox have no open slots in their rotation. There are other pressing needs that SP will not help with.

 

Are you serious? We haven't signed Matsuzaka yet...and do you remember last year at the start of the season when we had wayyyyyyy too many pitchers? That turned out well for us, huh?

[jacksonianmarch]

Are you serious? We haven't signed Matsuzaka yet...and do you remember last year at the start of the season when we had wayyyyyyy too many pitchers? That turned out well for us' date=' huh?[/quote']

 

Agreed. But you cannot convince a FA to sign with you if you dont have a rotation spot for them. At the same time, last yr the sox didnt have any glaring holes coming into the season, they just fell apart in all aspects down the stretch. This yr they have holes in the infield and in the pen already while guys are signing in droves.

[rician blast]

right now the sox have no open slots in their rotation. There are other pressing needs that SP will not help with.

 

But also right now Mulder would not require an open spot in any rotation since he'll only be rehabbing early in 2007. He'd have a lot to prove before a spot was reserved for him.

 

HOSN is absolutely correct in reminding us of 2006...an apparent abundance of starting pitching ended up being a dearth in pitching and it cost the team big time.

[Gom]

Mulder is a low risk, low cost investment with a potential of a high return. I think any team in contention should go for it, including the Yankees and Sox.

[TheKilo]

Mulder is a low risk' date=' low cost investment with a potential of a high return. I think any team in contention should go for it, including the Yankees and Sox.[/quote']

 

*cough*damagedgoods*cough*