Red Sox closing in on JD Drew

[Gom]

Who was the World Series MVP in 2004?

[jacksonianmarch]

I have some analogies for you.

 

Drew is grissel. Manny is filet minon

Drew is a pinto. Manny is a bentley.

Drew is the fat girl. Manny is the supermodel.

 

Good luck replacing him in the lineup. First of all, signing JD is an awful idea at 15mil, but it will work in that lineup if he is there to "complement" Manny not to replace him. Here are some figures for you.

 

Games played

Manny 137, 152, 150, 150, 147, 118, 142, 120, 154, 152, 152, 130

Drew 104, 135, 109, 135, 100, 145, 72, 146

 

Every other season, Drew missed 60 or so games. Manny has been over 118 for his whole career and 130 10 or more times in the last 12 yrs. Drew has been over 130 4 times in 8 yrs. Durability is in Manny's corner BY FAR.

 

AVG.

Manny .308, .309, .328, .294, .333, .351, .306, .349, .325, .308, .292, .321

Drew .242, .295, .323, .252, .289, .305, .286, .283

Manny has been over .300 10 of the past 12 seasons with the other 2 being rather close to .300. Drew has cracked .300 twice in his career and one of those times was in a 109 game season. Drew is a career .286 hitter and it looks like he is regressing to his mean over the past 2 seasons. Manny is a career .314 hitter and he surpassed that in 2006. Manny BY FAR!

 

HR

Manny 31, 33, 26, 45, 44, 38, 41, 33, 37, 43, 45, 35

Drew 13, 18, 27, 18, 15, 31, 15, 20

 

Manny is the man offensively with at or above 30 HRs 11 times in the last 12 yrs. Drew surpassed 30 once and averages 20 HRs a season. Manny BY FAR

 

RBI

Manny 107, 112, 88, 145, 165, 122, 125, 107, 104, 130, 144, 102

Drew 39, 57, 73, 56, 42, 93, 36, 100

 

WOW. 57, 56, 93, and 100 are the totals when Drew plays over 130 games. And he is going to replace Manny? Dont get me wrong, the guy, if healthy and that is a HUGE if, would be a nice #5, but if you are counting on him to protect Ortiz, you will crumble that offense. Not only is Drew incapable of handling the huge load he will get by having Ortiz walked 250 times, both are left handed and would be a solid setup for any team with a lefty specialist to bring them in for 2 hitters with the lattitude of knowing that Ortiz doesnt need to be pitched to and Drew can be feasted upon. BTW, Drew hit .244 with a .716OPS against lefties last yr while Manny hit .326 with a 1.098 OPS against lefties last season. Drew as the 5 hitter, could be a good idea. Drew as the 4 protecting Manny, BAD idea.

[eZ_d0eS_iT]

bills and kemp most likely will be avail., broxton, loney and laroche might be tougher to pry out of LA. i also know we'd love nothing better than to get rid of penny, but assuming we might have to take clement in exchange, i dont see that part of the deal happening. though, if by giving up loney, we dont have to give up as many prospects, that might be enough to get it done.

[jacksonianmarch]

Loney is not a top tier prospect. Ethier and Kemp are as well as Billingsley and Broxton. I just think the latter two are a little too erratic to be effective in the ALE.

[Fried Neckbones]

Loney is not a top tier prospect. Ethier and Kemp are as well as Billingsley and Broxton. I just think the latter two are a little too erratic to be effective in the ALE.

 

Broxton would be fine. A 3:1 k:bb ratio, about a 1.25 k/inning, and a 2.59 ERA last year seems pretty good. Billingsley I think they would try to package with some of their own prospects/other players (WMP/Coco) and try to flip.

[example1]

Broxton would be fine. A 3:1 k:bb ratio' date=' about a 1.25 k/inning, and a 2.59 ERA last year seems pretty good. Billingsley I think they would try to package with some of their own prospects/other players (WMP/Coco) and try to flip.[/quote']

 

What do you think Fried Neckbones, is it finally going to happen this time? Is manny gone?

 

I think getting Drew is one way they are going to try to offset Manny's bat and I think they're going to get another hitter to hit 5th, hopefully out of the deal, OR they'll get a top tier prospect or two or three who are only a year away or who might be able to contribute this season. I really liked what I saw from Kemp last year, but he's a question mark.

 

Drew should be the #3 hitter if Manny is dealt. His .400 OBP would still ensure plenty of at bats for Papi, often with guys on base. This would help negate the "shift" that killed Ortiz's avg (and OBP, obviously) by at least 20 points last year. A solid 5th hitter with high RBI potential would give Ortiz and drew the chance to score with regularity.

 

It is a good question whether or not the sox are playing for 07 or if they're aiming hard for 08 in particular. I don't think they'll give up on any one particular season, as a lineup focused around Ortiz is still a solid lineup and they'll have great young pitching, but they'll have the same pitching the following year with guys like Bard and Buchholz perhaps ready to participate, Lester (hopefully) back and at least partially effective, no schilling contract, no wakefield contract... I just think the future is brighter than the present for the Sox, but the present isn't altogether dim.

[Mr Crunchy]

Last thing - Manny has asked to be traded again and this time he knows it is not a contract issue unlike other years. What do you think he will be like in 2007 if we don't trade him again. I am not willing to find out

 

why??

do you think he wont hit 35 120 .300??

i dont buy it

as miserable as he is hes still the best right handed hitter on earth

 

ive never once heard him ask to be traded and i'll pay 500.00 to anyone who has his voice on record demanding to be traded

in fact

the only time i heard him speak he said he wanted to play here

 

if we sign drew we lose manny

that,in essence is the bottom line here and it is unacceptable in my eyes unless we get a legit 4 hitter in return

[edge4414]

Last thing - Manny has asked to be traded again and this time he knows it is not a contract issue unlike other years. What do you think he will be like in 2007 if we don't trade him again. I am not willing to find out

 

why??

do you think he wont hit 35 120 .300??

i dont buy it

as miserable as he is hes still the best right handed hitter on earth

 

ive never once heard him ask to be traded and i'll pay 500.00 to anyone who has his voice on record demanding to be traded

in fact

the only time i heard him speak he said he wanted to play here

 

if we sign drew we lose manny

that,in essence is the bottom line here and it is unacceptable in my eyes unless we get a legit 4 hitter in return

 

No we haven't heard Manny say it but we have heard his agent and his teamates say he has asked to be traded. Drew is a done deal. Face it and don't blame him if Manny gets traded. Again they are independent.

[Mr Crunchy]

independant of each other??

sure they are

we're dumping 17-20M per year at the same time we're paying this career chump 15M per

 

independant you say?

 

do you play cards

[rician blast]

if we sign drew we lose manny

that,in essence is the bottom line here and it is unacceptable in my eyes unless we get a legit 4 hitter in return

 

speaking of 4 hitters...personally I have always felt a team's best hitter s/b in the 3-hole. For the Sox that would be Manny. Imagine his # if he had Papi hitting behind him? Krist, I'm surprised he never complained about who protected him in the line-up.

[TheKilo]

independant of each other??

sure they are

we're dumping 17-20M per year at the same time we're paying this career chump 15M per

 

independant you say?

 

do you play cards

 

 

Career chump? When healthy (blah blah blah) Drew is an excellent offensive player.

 

Better than Trot.

Better than Damon.

[Rdsxmbnt]

he doesnt know wtf hes talking about

[jacksonianmarch]

Career chump? When healthy (blah blah blah) Drew is an excellent offensive player.

 

Better than Trot.

Better than Damon.

 

Better than Damon.....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

man, I needed that laugh

Lets see.

 

Damon's last 3 yrs average

.302 18HR 83RBI 21SB .369OBP .466SLG .835OPS at the top of the order

 

Drew's last 3 yrs average

.292 22HR 76RBI 5SB .412OBP .531SLG .943OPS out of the middle of the order

 

Damon has better production, plays CF, has more speed than drew and plays many more games. Drew walks more and will hit for a little more power, but he is a flat out injury prone player. PLUS, those numbers include a career yr 3 yrs ago where his OPS+ was 100 to his career average. Drew's past 2 yrs, he averaged hitting .284 17HR 68RBI with aOPS around .915. For a middle of the order bat in comparison to a top of the order hitter, the ops shouldnt be close and yet it is. Damon is the better player at his position in the field and in the order, and to deny it is homerism.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Better than Damon.....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

man, I needed that laugh

Lets see.

 

Damon's last 3 yrs average

.302 18HR 83RBI 21SB .369OBP .466SLG .835OPS at the top of the order

 

Drew's last 3 yrs average

.292 22HR 76RBI 5SB .412OBP .531SLG .943OPS out of the middle of the order

 

Damon has better production, plays CF, has more speed than drew and plays many more games. Drew walks more and will hit for a little more power, but he is a flat out injury prone player. PLUS, those numbers include a career yr 3 yrs ago where his OPS+ was 100 to his career average. Drew's past 2 yrs, he averaged hitting .284 17HR 68RBI with aOPS around .915. For a middle of the order bat in comparison to a top of the order hitter, the ops shouldnt be close and yet it is. Damon is the better player at his position in the field and in the order, and to deny it is homerism.

 

dude you just averaged his numbers together from a year where he more than half the season.

[ORS]

Last 3 years....

 

Damon: 124 VORP, 0 FRAA

Drew: 131 VORP, +12 FRAA

 

VORP is playing time dependent and calculated from EqA, which incorporates the running game. FRAA is fielding runs above average.

 

Oops

[Rdsxmbnt]

If Drew is healthy hes a better player, obviously thats a big if, but presumably hes coming in healthy and he'll do some damage. If hes given 550-600 ABs than he could probaly hit over 110 RBI, more than 100 runs scored, more than 100 walks, higher OBP than Damon, higher SLG%, and depending which Damon plays, he could post a significantly higher OPS along with a couple more HRs. Damon will steal more bases and score a few more runs though.

 

Drew is a 133 OPS+ career hitter, Damon only wishes he could do that, and his best season is a 120 OPS+ (last year). Both players field their positions well. Its tough to compare a leadoff hitter to middle of the order hitter, but saying Damon is much better than Drew is laughable in itself because if Drew can be an offensive force.

[TheKilo]

Better than Damon.....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

man, I needed that laugh

Lets see.

 

Damon's last 3 yrs average

.302 18HR 83RBI 21SB .369OBP .466SLG .835OPS at the top of the order

 

Drew's last 3 yrs average

.292 22HR 76RBI 5SB .412OBP .531SLG .943OPS out of the middle of the order

 

Damon has better production, plays CF, has more speed than drew and plays many more games. Drew walks more and will hit for a little more power, but he is a flat out injury prone player. PLUS, those numbers include a career yr 3 yrs ago where his OPS+ was 100 to his career average. Drew's past 2 yrs, he averaged hitting .284 17HR 68RBI with aOPS around .915. For a middle of the order bat in comparison to a top of the order hitter, the ops shouldnt be close and yet it is. Damon is the better player at his position in the field and in the order, and to deny it is homerism.

 

 

 

See ORS's post, and start using statistics that don't suck. BA, RBI....these are f***ing terrible measures of a player's offensive worth.

 

 

WHEN JD DREW IS HEALTHY....he is far and away a better offensive player, which is what I said in my OP.

[riverside sluggers]

If Drew is healthy hes a better player' date=' obviously thats a big if, but presumably hes coming in healthy and he'll do some damage.[/quote']

 

If he wasnt by a pitch on his wrist in 2005 that put him on the DL, easily we couldve been looking at 3 straight seasons of 140 + (or close to) amount of games

[Rdsxmbnt]

If he wasnt by a pitch on his wrist in 2005 that put him on the DL' date=' easily we couldve been looking at 3 straight seasons of 140 + (or close to) amount of games[/quote']

 

I know i just had to throw that in there because some people have a tendency to use the "well thats only if hes healthy" line

[RavenOfProphecy]

Signing J.D. Drew is a joke. Drew will probably get the aforementioned five years, $70 million, one year and $30 million more than we offered to Damon. I know some of you guys think Drew is a more productive player, but we'd be much better off with Damon in center, flanked by Manny and Trot on either side, than Drew in right, pushing Manny out because the Red Sox apparently don't think David Ortiz needs any protection. Drew has been only incrimentally better than Trot Nixon - he gets on base two times more every 100 ABs (so, probably 8-10 times more over the course of a season.) Trot is a much cheaper player to pay, and the difference between the two is power and speed - Drew is a faster player but in the field isn't a huge upgrade, and since Francona doesn't give anyone the green light to steal, that's a useless tool for the Red Sox. If Manny stayed, we wouldn't have as much a need for power, and although Trot hasn't been a power hitter for a few years now, our team would produce far more runs with Manny in and Drew out than with Drew in.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Signing J.D. Drew is a joke. Drew will probably get the aforementioned five years' date=' $70 million, one year and $30 million more than we offered to Damon. I know some of you guys think Drew is a more productive player, but we'd be much better off with Damon in center, flanked by Manny and Trot on either side, than Drew in right, pushing Manny out because the Red Sox apparently don't think David Ortiz needs any protection. Drew has been only incrimentally better than Trot Nixon - he gets on base two times more every 100 ABs (so, probably 8-10 times more over the course of a season.) Trot is a much cheaper player to pay, and the difference between the two is power and speed - Drew is a faster player but in the field isn't a huge upgrade, and since Francona doesn't give anyone the green light to steal, that's a useless tool for the Red Sox. If Manny stayed, we wouldn't have as much a need for power, and although Trot hasn't been a power hitter for a few years now, our team would produce far more runs with Manny in and Drew out than with Drew in.[/quote']

 

uh noo, Drew is much more than incrimentally better than Nixon. Personally ill take Manny-Coco/Pena - Drew over Manny-Damon-Nixon

[RavenOfProphecy]

uh noo' date=' Drew is much more than incrimentally better than Nixon. Personally ill take Manny-Coco/Pena - Drew over Manny-Damon-Nixon[/quote']

 

It's most likely that Drew is going to push Manny off of our team, replacing one expensive outfielder with another expensive one who's not as good.

[riverside sluggers]

It's most likely that Drew is going to push Manny off of our team' date=' replacing one expensive outfielder with another expensive one who's not as good.[/quote']

 

Drew is not the replacement for Manny, rather he's the replacement for Trot which IMO is a definite upgrade in that department

[jacksonianmarch]

manny wil be dealt if the sox are serious about drew.

[Mr Crunchy]

drew is the replacement for kathy rigby on the playtex""i feel fresh"" commercials

 

IF

IF

IF

IF

if your aunt had a mustache she'd be your uncle

you dont drop 70Million dollars on IF while trading away certain guarantees such as .300 35 and 120...

[rician blast]

drew is the replacement for kathy rigby on the playtex""i feel fresh"" commercials

 

IF

IF

IF

IF

if your aunt had a mustache she'd be your uncle

you dont drop 70Million dollars on IF while trading away certain guarantees such as .300 35 and 120...

 

Crunch, could we soon be hearing the same taunts toward Drew that some threw at Garciappara in early to mid 2004 back in the old BH forum....

 

Drew has a mangina?

[BSN07]

Drew has to be aware of what is being said about him in BOS. He has to know what it's like play in BOS from either Boras the FO, reporters ect. He has to be on some level aware of what it's going to take to play here. I'm sure he's getting offers to play elsewhere, maybe for not as much money, but I think he does realize what he's getting himself in into. Theres just no way he comes to BOS and gets blind sided and says"wow I didn't know it would be like this playing in BOS". With that said I'm willing to give him the benifit of the doubt and let his play do the talking. Like Schilling said in his interview last week about Drew, He hopes the fans give him a chance to prove himself and not boo him if he doesn't get a hit every at bat. Let's give him a chance before we totaly kill the guy before he even puts a uniform on. All be it it might turn out bad, and in that case let him have it, but let's just give him enough rope to hang himself, and see what he does from there.

 

I mean for God sake we put up with WMP out in RF last year. If Drew doesn't come threw with the bat, even the people who don't like him agree he has great D, and probably is the only one out there besides Trot that can play RF good at Fenway.

[Mr Crunchy]

well jimma

it doesnt seem to be a good fit to me

couple that with the fact that whether he likes it or we like it

he WILL be deemed mannys replacement

 

outside ted williams and perhaps jim rice there hasnt been anyone on the f***ing planet that can fit into mannys shoes in 100 years of sox basbeall

 

as far as being told how difficult it is to play here ??

you have to live it to appreciate it

a memo from steve buckley doesnt spell it out nor does the advice from gerry callahan

 

i havent opened a boston paper in the last 2 months that doesnt have someone ripping manny in the sports section

i may need to commit jihad on yawkee way

[TheKilo]

manny in the sports section

i may need to commit jihad on yawkee way

 

 

Hahaha, amazing.

 

I agree...the best things the Sox can do are keep Manny, sign Drew, sign Lugo, and sign Matsuzaka.

[Ray10]

Drew is a great pickup for the Sox. I don't know why everyone is so against the Sox signing the guy. Yeah it is alot of money, yea he might not be the healthiest guy in the world but he is a definite upgrade from Trot Nixon in right field. And who's to say he won't stay healthy and give us a great 5 years in Boston. I'm all for the Sox signing J.D Drew. And yea Manny Ramirez is a great player, but it's about time he gets traded. He just brings negative energy to the Red Sox and kills the team spirit. I don't care how many Homeruns the guy hits every year, all he ever does is whine about everything and always says he doesn't want to be here he wants to be traded, then you know what trade him and let another team worry about him. The only thing we are going to miss about Manny is his bat anyways he is one of the worst outfielders I have ever seen in my life. Yea Manny's bat will be missed but it's better than having him kill the team spirit.