RavenOfProphecy

I, for one, am not excited at all to be all the way down at #55 for our first pick. Sure, we have #62, but some teams have multiple first round picks, and we blew ours signing Julio Lugo (one of the signings, along with J.D. Drew, that I didn't really like all that much in the first place.) Lugo's batting .226/.289/.330, and that doesn't scream "first round" to me. More like "scrub." Kyle Russell and James Simmons are two guys I'm holding out hope for. Russell has great power as a sophomore right fielder for Texas. He's 6'5", 185 lbs., and 20 years old, according to the Texas Longhorns website. He reminds me of Trot Nixon, back when Nixon was hitting .256/.338/.470 with 24 home runs or so. He's not afraid to get dirty playing and, like I said, he can hit. His line from 2007: .336/.456/.807, 28 HR, 71 RBI, 10 SB Simmons is another productive collegiate guy out of UC Riverside. He's a 6'4", 215 righty with pretty good stuff - he can reach 93 MPH or so. He's got some great numbers. His line from 2007: 11-3, 2.40 ERA, 116 K, 15 BB, .220 BAA in 123.2 IP It's not likely that either of these guys will be left at #55, because I think they're more of late-first/early sandwich picks, but should either of them fall for some reason, I would be happy with both. Russell and Place could make for a good corner outfield combination for the future with a lot of power, and Simmons would be someone who could eventually reach the rotation. I've heard Jack McGeary for the Red Sox at #55 as a high school lefthander from Massachusetts, but I'm hoping that's not the case, as his velocity is 91 tops, and more frequently around 85, and he has walked 21 batters in 40 innings.

I went with Pineiro but I'd have him on a short leash.

Ugh, my last week was awful. 1/13 4:30 ET At Baltimore ................. .. -4 ............................ Indianapolis 1/13 8:00 ET At New Orleans ............... -5 ............................ Philadelphia 1/14 1:00 ET At Chicago ...................... -9 ................................... Seattle 1/14 4:30 ET At San Diego ................... -5 .......................... New England

Wild Card Week NFL Football - NFL Playoff Game Dates 1/6 - 1/7, 2007 Date & Time Favorite ............. Spread ................ Underdog 1/6 4:30 ET At Indianapolis .......... -6.5 ...................... Kansas City 1/6 8:00 ET At Seattle .................. -3 ............................... Dallas 1/7 1:00 ET At New England ......... -9 .............................. NY Jets 1/7 4:30 ET At Philadelphia .......... -6.5 ......................... NY Giants

Week Seventeen NFL Football - NFL Game Dates 12/30 - 12/31, 2006 Spread Category : Date & Time Favorite .................. Spread ........................ Underdog 12/30 8:00 ET NY Giants .................... -2 ..................... At Washington 12/31 1:00 ET At Cincinnati ............... -6 ............................ Pittsburgh 12/31 1:00 ET At Dallas ................... -12 ................................ Detroit 12/31 1:00 ET At Houston ................ -3.5 ........................... Cleveland 12/31 1:00 ET At Kansas City ........... -2.5 ........................ Jacksonville 12/31 1:00 ET St. Louis .................... -2 ........................ At Minnesota 12/31 1:00 ET At New Orleans .......... -3 ............................... Carolina 12/31 1:00 ET At NY Jets ............... -12.5 ............................. Oakland 12/31 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay ........... -3.5 ............................... Seattle 12/31 1:00 ET At Tennessee ............ -3 ........................ New England 12/31 4:15 ET At Philadelphia ......... -7.5 ............................... Atlanta 12/31 4:15 ET At Denver ................ -11 ...................... San Francisco 12/31 4:15 ET At San Diego .......... -13.5 .............................. Arizona 12/31 4:15 ET At Baltimore .............. -9 ................................ Buffalo 12/31 4:15 ET At Indianapolis .......... -9 .................................. Miami Sunday Night Football : 12/31 8:15 ET At Chicago .............. -2.5 ........................... Green Bay Straight Category : Date & Time Favorite .................................................. .. Underdog 12/30 8:00 ET NY Giants ............................................. At Washington 12/31 1:00 ET At Cincinnati ............................................... Pittsburgh 12/31 1:00 ET At Dallas .................................................. ....... Detroit 12/31 1:00 ET At Houston .................................................. Cleveland 12/31 1:00 ET At Kansas City .......................................... Jacksonville 12/31 1:00 ET St. Louis ................................................ At Minnesota 12/31 1:00 ET At New Orleans ............................................. Carolina 12/31 1:00 ET At NY Jets .................................................. ... Oakland 12/31 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay ................................................. Seattle 12/31 1:00 ET At Tennessee ......................................... New England 12/31 4:15 ET At Philadelphia ................................................ Atlanta 12/31 4:15 ET At Denver ............................................. San Francisco 12/31 4:15 ET At San Diego ................................................. Arizona 12/31 4:15 ET At Baltimore .................................................. . Buffalo 12/31 4:15 ET At Indianapolis ................................................. Miami Sunday Night Football : 12/31 8:15 ET At Chicago ................................................. Green Bay Sunday Night Football Total Points Scored : .................30

My favorite Yankee is probably Derek Jeter, but I also like Robinson Cano a lot, and Bernie Williams.

http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k192/RPMcMurphy_01/jabba.jpg?t=1166943230

Week Sixteen NFL Football - NFL Game Dates 12/21 - 12/25,2006 Spread Category : Date & Time Favorite.................... Spread ......................... Underdog 12/21 8:00 ET At Green Bay................ -3.5 .............................Minnesota 12/23 8:00 ET Kansas City.................. -6.5 ............................At Oakland 12/24 1:00 ET At Buffalo ....................-4.5 .............................Tennessee 12/24 1:00 ET At NY Giants ...................-3 ..........................New Orleans 12/24 1:00 ET At Atlanta ......................-6 .................................Carolina 12/24 1:00 ET At St. Louis ..................-2.5 ...........................Washington 12/24 1:00 ET Indianapolis ...................-9 .............................At Houston 12/24 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh .................-3 ................................Baltimore 12/24 1:00 ET At Cleveland ..................-3 .............................Tampa Bay 12/24 1:00 ET Chicago ......................-4.5 ...............................At Detroit 12/24 1:00 ET At Jacksonville .............-2.5 ..........................New England 12/24 4:05 ET At San Francisco ............-4 ..................................Arizona 12/24 4:15 ET At Denver ......................-3 ...............................Cincinnati 12/24 4:15 ET San Diego .....................-5 ...............................At Seattle Monday Night Football Point Spread 12/25 5:00 ET At Dallas ......................-7 .............................Philadelphia 12/25 8:30 ET At Miami ......................-2 ....................................NY Jets Straight Category : Date & Time Favorite.......................................... ............ Underdog 12/21 8:00 ET At Green Bay............................................... ......Minnesota 12/23 8:00 ET Kansas City.............................................. ........At Oakland 12/24 1:00 ET At Buffalo .................................................. ......Tennessee 12/24 1:00 ET At NY Giants .................................................N ew Orleans 12/24 1:00 ET At Atlanta .................................................. .........Carolina 12/24 1:00 ET At St. Louis .................................................. ..Washington 12/24 1:00 ET Indianapolis .................................................. ...At Houston 12/24 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh .................................................. ....Baltimore 12/24 1:00 ET At Cleveland .................................................. ..Tampa Bay 12/24 1:00 ET Chicago .................................................. ..........At Detroit 12/24 1:00 ET At Jacksonville ..............................................New England 12/24 4:05 ET At San Francisco .................................................. Arizona 12/24 4:15 ET At Denver .................................................. .......Cincinnati 12/24 4:15 ET San Diego .................................................. ......At Seattle Monday Night Football Straight Picks 12/25 5:00 ET At Dallas .................................................. .....Philadelphia 12/25 8:30 ET At Miami .................................................. ............NY Jets Monday Night Football Total Points Scored : Use the Dallas / Philadelphia game.......................... 52

Pretty good move. The White Sox needed a backup pretty badly, and Hall is pretty solid as a reserve.

Tampa Bay got a pretty solid player for a good price. I'm kind of surprised as to how cheap these Japanese players are signing for. Obviously, Matsuzaka was the better deal, but Iwamura was extremely productive last year and Igawa did well in Japan last year, although he got beat up by the American team in the WBC.

I just re-watched the Ortiz blast off of Otsuka, and I don't think I could see him as our closer. That facial expression was hilarious, though. I still think we should try and get back Mike Gonzalez after Theo stupidly traded him and Freddy Sanchez for Jeff Suppan a few years ago.

Yeah, I was kind of hoping Boston would sign him as well. We could have maybe played him in the outfield or something, Tampa Bay said they were interested in trying him out at a bunch of different positions in both the infield and outfield.

I've heard the Yankees are also interested in signing him for the first base job, but that it's more likely to go to Doug Mientkiewicz or Shea Hillenbrand, in that order. It would be interesting if the Reds kept the two together, though, that'd be cool.

I actually think Aubrey Huff would be a pretty good alternative. He's got decent plate discipline, a, well, average average, and some good power, plus he's a player that the Red Sox tried to get in a few deals over the last couple years. Francona will like him because he can play all over the field, at third, right, left, and maybe first.

I know that it's conventional baseball wisdom that every team needs to have a designated closer on their roster. But I don't think it's really needed, and although bullpen-by-committee didn't work out too well in the playoffs, I think it's time to give it one more shot, as now we have a deep enough bullpen to successfully run it, in my opinion. What are the chances that we're going to consistently have a ninth-inning save opportunity with a one-run lead? I don't see it happening that often in the MLB, and anything from two to three runs should be a piece of cake for any solid reliever. If they couldn't get through an inning without allowing a run, they wouldn't be in the MLB in the first place. In fact, in the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, page 236, James simulated around 2,000 test seasons, and made a chart to show the percent likeliness of a team winning with or without their relief ace pitching in five different scenarios: Situation, With Relief Ace/Without Relief Ace -2 - 07.4%, 06.8% -1 - 22.3%, 19.7% +0 - 57.4%, 50.0% +1 - 86.7%, 81.0% +2 - 96.4%, 94.5% +3 - 99.0%, 98.2% So basically, the only time in which having and using a relief ace is markedly more valuable than a standard reliever is when you are either tied, or up by one run. Now, not many teams nowadays even use their closer for three outs in, say, the ninth inning, although there are a few exceptions, the Yankees with Mariano Rivera, for example. I think that the best time to use your relief ace would be when tied or leading by one, as it's either highly likely (up by 2+), or highly unlikely (losing) that you will win the game in any of the other situations. Giving up a player who plays every day, such as Coco Crisp, for a Mike Gonzalez or an Akinori Otsuka, is an ill-advised decision, as a batter can play every game, but a closer might step into only 50 games a year, one out of three, and often when leading by two or three runs in a save opportunity just to fatten up his statistics in the same way slaves were greased up before going to market back in the 1800s, making them more attractive to other teams for a trade. Let's take a look at the different pitchers on our team who might be counted on to save a game with this setup, shall we? Say we used a bullpen-by-committee of, say, Brendan Donnelly, Hideki Okajima, J.C. Romero, and Mike Timlin to close out our games. We know Timlin knows how to save a game - we've seen it multiple times. He's getting up there in age, but it's not like he was a spring chicken last year, either, or the year before that. Donnelly didn't blow a game all season last year. Okajima has a big curve and Romero held lefties to an on-base percentage of .298 last year. Theo Epstein and co. should stop looking for a highly-paid marginal upgrade in the bullpen and take a look at who they already have.

Well, it looks like we're not going to be getting Matsuzaka: http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=171334 And now with Andy Pettitte signing with the Yankees, they become the favorite to land Roger Clemens if he decides to pitch. If that happened, our rotations would look like this: Red Sox: Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield Yankees: Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang They would have an obvious advantage in terms of their rotation, and that doesn't bode well. We're going to need to spend even more money if we don't get Matsuzaka to lure the Rocket back here, especially since Zito is a bad fit for Fenway (left handed fly ball pitcher in a hitter's park), and we missed out on people like Ted Lilly, who were the other good FA options. I didn't much like the Matsuzaka deal, in part because it was costly, partly because he was unproven against major leaguers, and in part because of this - if it failed, all of the other good pitchers would be taken.

In a way, I hope Lugo signs with the Cubs - he's probably going to get a lot of money wherever he goes, because he's the only good shortstop left in free agency - and Theo needs to stop spending money, since most every big money decision he's made over the past few years has been a mistake - Schilling being the exception. Renteria, Clement, Wells, the list goes on. I think a better move would be to sign former Reds 3B Rich Aurilia. He's 35 years old - four years older than Lugo, but was a much more productive hitter last year: J. Lugo - .278/.341/.421, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 24 SB R. Aurilia - .300/.349/.518, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 3 SB The steals aren't a big deal because we don't utilize the basepaths much anyways, and a one-year deal with Aurilia would be far cheaper (and safer) than a long-term one with Lugo. We gave Rent-a-wreck a big deal, he couldn't handle Boston, we had to unload him. What if the same thing happens with Lugo? He was terrible with the Dodgers last year - his only success as a pro has come with the Devil Rays, who have far less pressure to perform than the Red Sox do. Even if Aurilia turned out badly, we wouldn't have wasted that big of an investment on him. He's a third baseman, but he can play second, by the way, and perhaps shortstop.

Signing J.D. Drew is a joke. Drew will probably get the aforementioned five years, $70 million, one year and $30 million more than we offered to Damon. I know some of you guys think Drew is a more productive player, but we'd be much better off with Damon in center, flanked by Manny and Trot on either side, than Drew in right, pushing Manny out because the Red Sox apparently don't think David Ortiz needs any protection. Drew has been only incrimentally better than Trot Nixon - he gets on base two times more every 100 ABs (so, probably 8-10 times more over the course of a season.) Trot is a much cheaper player to pay, and the difference between the two is power and speed - Drew is a faster player but in the field isn't a huge upgrade, and since Francona doesn't give anyone the green light to steal, that's a useless tool for the Red Sox. If Manny stayed, we wouldn't have as much a need for power, and although Trot hasn't been a power hitter for a few years now, our team would produce far more runs with Manny in and Drew out than with Drew in.

We had Mike Gonzalez, but Theo traded him and Freddy Sanchez for Jeff Suppan. Thanks a lot!

This is so pathetic it's not even funny.

Whoops.

Is it really? Wow. I typed in Jon Lester and that's what came up. They look so similar. I'll change it.

This'll be my first game day topic, so I figured no better team to start that against than the Royals, no? Then I have a pretty good chance of winning and continuing. We really need to pick up this game to at least keep pace with the White Sox, and if the Yankees lose, this is a must-win, and it's the freaking Royals. Game Info: Date: Tuesday, August 8th, 2006 First Pitch: 8:10pm EDT Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri TV: NESN Starting Pitchers: Jon Lester vs. Luke Hudson http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/images/2006/03/11/jh9LjvFC.jpghttp://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/images/2005/07/20/znj8AMfW.jpg http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/bos/images/icon_bos.gif #62 Jon Lester: 5-1, 3.59 ERA http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/kc/images/icon_kc.gif #34 Luke Hudson: 4-3, 4.67 ERA

There should be a comma after spelling. Also, no comma after especially. Just some observations.