Pitching staff projections for 07'

[ORS]

No, he didn't tell you that, you are telling yourself that. Despite twice the walks, their results are very similar. Look at the WHIP. That means Igawa is easier to hit. Will that bode well in the best offensive division in professional baseball? Time will tell.

[Cocos Disciples]

Here's the thing. I said Kaz Ishii lite, did I not? Meaning he will not be as good as Kaz Ishii. And of course when I said Kaz Ishii I meant ignoring the fact that he was in the league for 4 years.

[jacksonianmarch]

No' date=' he didn't tell you that, you are telling yourself that. Despite twice the walks, their results are very similar. Look at the WHIP. That means Igawa is easier to hit. Will that bode well in the best offensive division in professional baseball? Time will tell.[/quote']

 

Igawa does get hit a little more and he K's a little less, but his decrease in walks is very significant. Thus far, the sampling between Japan and MLB as far as stat correlators is very shaky. On some pitches, their hit rate goes way up (Irabu). On others, their hit rate stays the same and their walk rate goes up (Nomo and Ishii). We shall see what this kid has.

[TheKilo]

Igawa does get hit a little more and he K's a little less' date=' but his decrease in walks is very significant. Thus far, the sampling between Japan and MLB as far as stat correlators is very shaky. On some pitches, their hit rate goes way up (Irabu). On others, their hit rate stays the same and their walk rate goes up (Nomo and Ishii). We shall see what this kid has.[/quote']

 

 

So if he gets hit a lot in japan and gets hit more over here, how is he going to be a sucessful pitcher?

 

If his walk rates go up, his WHIP would increase significantly, and he gets hit more AND puts people on base, how is he going to be a successful pitcher?

 

Since when is putting up $25 mil to talk to a guy who's gonna be a 5th starter a wise investment?

[a700hitter]

So if he gets hit a lot in japan and gets hit more over here, how is he going to be a sucessful pitcher?

 

If his walk rates go up, his WHIP would increase significantly, and he gets hit more AND puts people on base, how is he going to be a successful pitcher?

 

Since when is putting up $25 mil to talk to a guy who's gonna be a 5th starter a wise investment?

Sure. Ir makes perfect sense.

[jacksonianmarch]

So if he gets hit a lot in japan and gets hit more over here, how is he going to be a sucessful pitcher?

 

If his walk rates go up, his WHIP would increase significantly, and he gets hit more AND puts people on base, how is he going to be a successful pitcher?

 

Since when is putting up $25 mil to talk to a guy who's gonna be a 5th starter a wise investment?

 

again, he does not get hit a ton more. He is still under a hit per inning which is very significant. Now you say that 25mil as a 5th starter just to talk is not a wise investment. Well, the same scouts (Japanese scouts mind you) who are saying that Igawa is a 4/5 are saying that Matsuzaka is likely going to settle in as a 3 with a ceiling of a 2. How is it insane to offer 25 mil to a guy who is a 4/5 when the sox offered 51.1mil to talk to a guy who is a 3? Makes no sense to me at all.

[jacksonianmarch]

at the same time, I went on record as saying that it was an unwise move and I stick by my initial assessment with this added caveat. If the yankees are able to get Igawa under control for 15-20 mil over 4 yrs (which is likely) and this makes them less likely to pursue Lilly, then I think it is a swell move. If they go out and get Lilly or another second tier pitcher anyway, then it is a poor move. Here is my logic to that. Igawa will cost the yankees 40-45mil. But only 15-20 of that will be subject to lux tax, which is killing the yankees right now. As a third time offender, they pay 40% of what they are over the limit. That means that 10mil a yr (which is what Lilly will make) would really be 14mil. While 4mil to igawa is really 6mil when it is all said and done. That is a savings of 8mil per yr over the life of the contract. Multiply that by 4 and you have a savings on the posting of 8mil. So essentially, the yankees got a guy who looks like he is the Japanese version of Ted Lilly (except more durable) for 8 mil less overall. And, perhaps the most important thing, they do not have to part with a first rounder which is going to be huge this draft because of the depth of the talent.

 

Now, all this goes caput if they sign Lilly anyway. Igawa makes sense if he is slated as a 4 or a 5. Now if the yankees go out and get Lilly (who is a 4 or a 5) then they shoot themselves in the foot.

[TheKilo]

again' date=' he does not get hit a ton more. He is still under a hit per inning which is very significant. Now you say that 25mil as a 5th starter just to talk is not a wise investment. Well, the same scouts (Japanese scouts mind you) who are saying that Igawa is a 4/5 are saying that Matsuzaka is likely going to settle in as a 3 with a ceiling of a 2. How is it insane to offer 25 mil to a guy who is a 4/5 when the sox offered 51.1mil to talk to a guy who is a 3? Makes no sense to me at all.[/quote']

 

 

Do you have some documentation as to these scouts and their reports? I have heard a lot more things about Matsuzaka being a 2/ace material as opposed to settling in as a number 3, and all I've heard is Igawa would be a back of the rotation type pitcher. Now, it would be a wise investment if Matsuzaka turns into that #2/#1 type pitcher. of course there's risk involved, but the reward is much bigger with Matsuzaka than it is with Igawa. So yes, trying to get a young stud of an arm onto your pitching staff, even if it costs $51 million to just negotiate with them, is a wise investment. Paying half that to get a person, who AT BEST, will be a #4 starter is not.

[jacksonianmarch]

Do you have some documentation as to these scouts and their reports? I have heard a lot more things about Matsuzaka being a 2/ace material as opposed to settling in as a number 3' date=' and all I've heard is Igawa would be a back of the rotation type pitcher. Now, it would be a wise investment if Matsuzaka turns into that #2/#1 type pitcher. of course there's risk involved, but the reward is much bigger with Matsuzaka than it is with Igawa. So yes, trying to get a young stud of an arm onto your pitching staff, even if it costs $51 million to just negotiate with them, is a wise investment. Paying half that to get a person, who AT BEST, will be a #4 starter is not.[/quote']

 

you guys can justify anything, can't you.

[ORS]

you guys can justify anything' date=' can't you.[/quote']

Please see post #97 of this thread, and tell me how it is any different.

[TheKilo]

you guys can justify anything' date=' can't you.[/quote']

 

 

I'm not trying to justify anything. All I am saying is I've heard a lot more things about Matsuzaka having the potential of an ace than him being a 3.

 

If you have sources on Matsuzaka, share them please.

[Cocos Disciples]

Jackso: What #s would you expect out of a 3 starter? A 1?

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not trying to justify anything. All I am saying is I've heard a lot more things about Matsuzaka having the potential of an ace than him being a 3.

 

If you have sources on Matsuzaka, share them please.

 

it was on XM two nights ago, Ronnie Night Train Lane et al.

[jacksonianmarch]

Jackso: What #s would you expect out of a 3 starter? A 1?

 

a #1, I expect to win 2/3 of his decisions. I expect 200+IP. I expect a top 10-15 era in the league.

 

a #3, I expect 180-200IP, more wins than losses and an era under 4.5.

[TheKilo]

it was on XM two nights ago' date=' Ronnie Night Train Lane et al.[/quote']

 

Documented source?

[jacksonianmarch]

Documented source?

 

unfortunately no, it was on the radio.

[seabeachfred]

I am not sold on him being a top of the rotation pitcher. I did watch some you-tube of him and he has MLB type stuff' date=' just nothing overly impressive. The one thing I am impressed with is his averaging over 200IP for the past 5 seasons. Sounds like Zito-lite to me and he will come much cheaper.[/quote']

 

Jackson and Riverside, are you a little leery that the Yankees are up to something big? Except for signing that Japanese pitcher they haven't done a thing so fair and I wonder are they are planning something big? You never know what George Steinbrenner is up to and I just feel that because of another disappointing Playoff run that he is mad enough to really go out and do something big. Think I'm on to something or a little paranoid? I just hope we get our business done.

 

BTW, while I was in Florida this weekend for my niece's wedding my lovely wife was busy waiting an hour on the phone to get through to the Red Sox ticket office and got me ducats for two games in Fort Myers on the 25th and 27th of March. Hopefully I will like what I see of our revamped team. :D :D :D

[BSN07]

I was reading an article on bostonherald.com. It was basically all about the winter meetings and what teams needs where. But in one part of it, I was interested to see that the writer said there have been very quiet whispers about AROD. Yes I know they have said there not trading him and he has said it too. But the so called "big" thing cashman could be planning might be an AROD trade.

 

I mean it makes sense if your AROD to deny wanting to be traded so that your not hatted even worse if they can't get a deal done. Then once your traded who gives a F what the fans think from your former team. Cashman can say it was a deal he couldn't pass up or whatever. Not saying its concrete by any stretch of the imagination but just thought I would bring it up after I read it.

 

Besides the NYY have an over abundance of offense and have enough to get by without AROD. They need pitching, and if AROD could bring in some quality pitching then why not. As a Sox fan I would rather them keep him, have all those distractions and not get any pitching for him. But thats just me being apart of RSN. If I was the GM for NYY, I would consider moving him for pitching help.

[seabeachfred]

I was reading an article on bostonherald.com. It was basically all about the winter meetings and what teams needs where. But in one part of it, I was interested to see that the writer said there have been very quiet whispers about AROD. Yes I know they have said there not trading him and he has said it too. But the so called "big" thing cashman could be planning might be an AROD trade.

 

I mean it makes sense if your AROD to deny wanting to be traded so that your not hatted even worse if they can't get a deal done. Then once your traded who gives a F what the fans think from your former team. Cashman can say it was a deal he couldn't pass up or whatever. Not saying its concrete by any stretch of the imagination but just thought I would bring it up after I read it.

 

Besides the NYY have an over abundance of offense and have enough to get by without AROD. They need pitching, and if AROD could bring in some quality pitching then why not. As a Sox fan I would rather them keep him, have all those distractions and not get any pitching for him. But thats just me being apart of RSN. If I was the GM for NYY, I would consider moving him for pitching help.

 

BoNation, I'm in complete agreement with you on both counts. Keeping A-Rod in New York is an exercise in futility. He will never win over the New York fans, the press or even many of his teammates. Hell, even Jason Giambroids called him out last summer. However, if I were Cashman and the right deal came along I would help put A-Rod on the Amtrack out of town and give him a personal escort while about it.

[BSN07]

If he doesn't get traded, I will go on record now saying he will opt out of his contract at the end of the season. I could be wrong by all accounts but i'll be one of the first to say it, that way maybe I can say "I told you so"lol:D

[Mr Crunchy]

arod?

hmmmmmn

we need a shortstop and some right handed power

we're freein up 20M as well with the imminent move of senor ramirez

 

of course this isnt about to happen but it was for a matter of 30 seconds rather intriguing

[jacksonianmarch]

Jackson and Riverside, are you a little leery that the Yankees are up to something big? Except for signing that Japanese pitcher they haven't done a thing so fair and I wonder are they are planning something big? You never know what George Steinbrenner is up to and I just feel that because of another disappointing Playoff run that he is mad enough to really go out and do something big. Think I'm on to something or a little paranoid? I just hope we get our business done.

 

BTW, while I was in Florida this weekend for my niece's wedding my lovely wife was busy waiting an hour on the phone to get through to the Red Sox ticket office and got me ducats for two games in Fort Myers on the 25th and 27th of March. Hopefully I will like what I see of our revamped team. :D :D :D

 

I always like it when you come on the scene seabeach. Glad you enjoyed the scene.

 

As for the yankees, I have no idea what is going on, and this is a first. Most of the time every negotiation is so public that it is boring when it finally gets finished. Now, nothing. The rumors floating around are that the yankees like their pen, a lot. Rivera closing, Proctor as the long man (never believe the stories of him converting to the rotation, that wont happen), Farnsworth, Bruney, Myers as a good core with guys like Britton, Cox, Beam, Villone possibly as audition guys and long guys like Rasner and Karstens. They love the pen, so they are actually looking to move a piece. One is Farnsworth. His 6mil salary has suddenly gotten a whole lot more affordable after the Baez signing.

 

On other fronts, they seem to like the top of the rotation with Wang and Mussina, but there are definite rumbling over RJ. There are both positive and negative questions about him, like was his back the cause of his poor season and if fixed will he be the old RJ? Or will he continue to slide and now post back surgery, will he even be useful as a yankee? These questions combined with the back of the rotation that looks like Igawa and Pavano, have led to the yankees really holding out hope for a Pettitte return. If he returns, then he immediately solidifies the rotation at the top as the 2 or 3 behind wang and makes the rotation deeper. If he doesnt come to NY, expect them to keep their ears open. They have 7 guys who will be duking it out for 5 spots and this does not include the trio of top prospects sitting in the rotation in AAA. It is a position of depth, but nothing all that spectacular for 2007 at least. They also have not had major league ready prospects like these ones since Pettitte, Mo, Ramiro were on the farm together in the early 90s. I think they will likely try to hang onto these pieces unless they find something they cannot refuse.

 

As for ARod, the rumors have him going to the white sox for Crede and Garcia. This would be a HORRIBLE trade. Garcia is a true innings eater in every sense of the word, but he is 1 yr from FA and he posted his career worst era last yr at 4.54. Crede is a guy who has elevating power, but is about 3 tiers below ARod. If the yankees move ARod, they should be able to get a young ace plus a fair 3b in the deal as ARod, even though every single yankee fan bags on him, is one of the best players in the history of the game and will bring offense, speed and solid defense at a prime position back. I think he suits up in the Bronx next yr, as I think the only match would be the angels and I dont think they'd part with the necessary pieces (Jered Weaver being one) to make it work.

[Mr Crunchy]

arod does bring all those things

you know what else he brings??

 

a gagging sound every october that 50,000,000 people in ny nj and connecticut hopes is really a chicken bone and not his bat stuck down his throat.

 

can he ever ever ever overcome his october miseries?

im not sure

[seabeachfred]

If he doesn't get traded' date=' I will go on record now saying he will opt out of his contract at the end of the season. I could be wrong by all accounts but i'll be one of the first to say it, that way maybe I can say "I told you so"lol:D[/quote']

 

BoNation, sorry I can't get into the A-Rod placement derby because I really haven't a clue how that is going to turn out. Right now I am keeping my eye on what the Yankees are up to; I am always watching what they are up to. So far, nothing, but be aware of them because I just got a feeling they are going to pull something and something big. You might read what our friend Jacksonian wrote; he could be on to the real lowdown on that.

 

I'm not A-Rod so I can't get in his mind, but I just cannot fathom how a guy wants to continue to be a human pin-cushion and take the punishment he takes. His teammates don't particularly care for him, the fans are all over him, the press gives him no support whatsoever, and the city has made it plain that it is Jeter's town and not his. Why would be want to put up with that when he could go elsewhere and be a hero because no matter what anyone tells you the guy is one helluva player, bad playoffs and all. :( :(

[seabeachfred]

I always like it when you come on the scene seabeach. Glad you enjoyed the scene.

 

As for the yankees, I have no idea what is going on, and this is a first. Most of the time every negotiation is so public that it is boring when it finally gets finished. Now, nothing. The rumors floating around are that the yankees like their pen, a lot. Rivera closing, Proctor as the long man (never believe the stories of him converting to the rotation, that wont happen), Farnsworth, Bruney, Myers as a good core with guys like Britton, Cox, Beam, Villone possibly as audition guys and long guys like Rasner and Karstens. They love the pen, so they are actually looking to move a piece. One is Farnsworth. His 6mil salary has suddenly gotten a whole lot more affordable after the Baez signing.

 

On other fronts, they seem to like the top of the rotation with Wang and Mussina, but there are definite rumbling over RJ. There are both positive and negative questions about him, like was his back the cause of his poor season and if fixed will he be the old RJ? Or will he continue to slide and now post back surgery, will he even be useful as a yankee? These questions combined with the back of the rotation that looks like Igawa and Pavano, have led to the yankees really holding out hope for a Pettitte return. If he returns, then he immediately solidifies the rotation at the top as the 2 or 3 behind wang and makes the rotation deeper. If he doesnt come to NY, expect them to keep their ears open. They have 7 guys who will be duking it out for 5 spots and this does not include the trio of top prospects sitting in the rotation in AAA. It is a position of depth, but nothing all that spectacular for 2007 at least. They also have not had major league ready prospects like these ones since Pettitte, Mo, Ramiro were on the farm together in the early 90s. I think they will likely try to hang onto these pieces unless they find something they cannot refuse.

 

As for ARod, the rumors have him going to the white sox for Crede and Garcia. This would be a HORRIBLE trade. Garcia is a true innings eater in every sense of the word, but he is 1 yr from FA and he posted his career worst era last yr at 4.54. Crede is a guy who has elevating power, but is about 3 tiers below ARod. If the yankees move ARod, they should be able to get a young ace plus a fair 3b in the deal as ARod, even though every single yankee fan bags on him, is one of the best players in the history of the game and will bring offense, speed and solid defense at a prime position back. I think he suits up in the Bronx next yr, as I think the only match would be the angels and I dont think they'd part with the necessary pieces (Jered Weaver being one) to make it work.

 

Jackson, maybe I ought to keep worrying about what our team is going to do instead of keeping an eye out for the Yankees, but for an old war horse that has despised that team for decades and decades I never cease to wonder what they are up to. Throughout most of my life it seems that they always seem to go out and get what they need, like it is preordained. Anyway, I will like it a whole lot better if after these Winter Meetings we know a little more about what our team will look like.

[TGov]

Schilling: 16-9, 3.55 ERA, 200+ IP

Beckett: 17-8, 3.91 ERA, 200+ IP

Matsuzaka: 14-8, 3.87 ERA, 200+ IP

Papelbon: 15-7, 3.42 ERA, 200+ IP

Wakefield: 11-10, 4.43 ERA, 180 IP

 

IDK, I just feel like Papelbon will have a big year coming into the rotation, he has a lot of confidence closing, and hes originally a starter... so I think the switch won't really be a problem...

 

Beckett will have a comeback season I'm hoping, He's got the stuff, he jsut has to learn how to use it better...

 

Schilling... well he's Schilling, great pitcher, comes back every year throwin' the good stuff

 

Wakefield throws the knuckler, it doesn't always move so I think that's why his ERA is usually higher than it should be...

 

I think Matsuzaka with pitch pretty well, he has great stuff so i hear, he's jsut gotta prove it, so Im expectign him to come right at batter, be aggressive and get some wins...

 

Hoping it's a good year come April we'll see how all this comes together...

[jacksonianmarch]

so the rotation will be 73-42, 31 games over .500, with 4 guys throwing over 200 innings and all having era's sub 4.43 era's? Keep dreaming bro.

[TheKilo]

so the rotation will be 73-42' date=' 31 games over .500, with 4 guys throwing over 200 innings and all having era's sub 4.43 era's? Keep dreaming bro.[/quote']

 

So what are your expectations for the Yankee rotation?

[jacksonianmarch]

So what are your expectations for the Yankee rotation?

 

it hasnt been finalized yet.

 

Of those that are,

 

Wang 18-9 220IP 3.50ERA

Mussina 15-10 180IP 3.90ERA

Johnson 15-10 200IP 4.80ERA if healthy

Igawa not sure here but likely 12-10 200IP 4.70ERA

Pavano? I cannot even speculate. Could be anything from spectacular to being traded to being horrible.

[TheKilo]

it hasnt been finalized yet.

 

Well neither has the Sox's, yet you feel the need to comment on every single predicition.