Pitching Staff "07

[mar_022]

IMO, the pitching staff had more to do with this year's downfall than the lineup did. For more than half the year, our lineup was plenty potent, although it wasnt perfect. Yet, there were only one or two consistent pitchers, and even those couldn't stay perfectly healthy. I believe the FO will make some significant moves, and they should. Here are two scenarios i would be happy with

 

Rotation:

Schmidt/Zito (not matsuzaka as ace...too many ?s)

Schilling

Beckett

Wake

Cheap FA that is historically healthy (GIl Meche etc)

LESTER after recovery, but cant rely on this

 

Pen:

LR-Gabbard (insurance policy 5th starter)

LR - Tavarez

MDC

Hansen

SU-FA

FA Lefty

Paps - CL

 

OR the FO could go this way if they find a very solid CL in the FA Market

 

Schmidt/Zito

Schill

Paps

Beck

Wake

 

Same bullpen but with FA Closer

 

Now i doubt they'll be able to find a closer better than paps on the market, but the offseason activity will dictate the FOs plans. Either way we need a Schmidt/Zito...preferably Zito IMO because of his relative youth compared to Schmidt. Lets not turn this into a Paps for SP vs. CL argument, but rather suggest FA to fill the spots and pick apart my pitching staff

[yankeessuck013]

M-A-T-S-U-Z-A-K-A

[mar_022]

i love the idea of a young stud that throws an unknown pitch like matsuzaka, but im not sure you can throw zito money at him (after paying to negotiate) for someone who has no guarantees. Japanese competition (other than WBC), elbow problems from never being on a pitch count, etc. I know he dominated WBC, but major leaguers often have trouble the first few times they see a pitcher

[example1]

i love the idea of a young stud that throws an unknown pitch like matsuzaka' date=' but im not sure you can throw zito money at him (after paying to negotiate) for someone who has no guarantees. Japanese competition (other than WBC), elbow problems from never being on a pitch count, etc. I know he dominated WBC, but major leaguers often have trouble the first few times they see a pitcher[/quote']

 

 

This is true, but once you know that he's as good as Zito (or better) you CAN'T GET HIM. It's like Pujols or Ichiro or Ortiz or Santana; if he's really that good then you either have him or you're drooling over him.

 

I don't think the gyroball is what is supposed to make Matsuzaka special (although it makes him unique). The guy has great location and really good stuff. He's poised and can make people swing and miss without walking many. He's not some novelty thing, he's just supposed to be a good pitcher.

[mar_022]

This is true, but once you know that he's as good as Zito (or better) you CAN'T GET HIM. It's like Pujols or Ichiro or Ortiz or Santana; if he's really that good then you either have him or you're drooling over him.

 

I don't think the gyroball is what is supposed to make Matsuzaka special (although it makes him unique). The guy has great location and really good stuff. He's poised and can make people swing and miss without walking many. He's not some novelty thing, he's just supposed to be a good pitcher.

 

no one KNOWS hes as good as Zito...and i dont see the point of getting him if we can get Zito where u know what you're getting. Hideki Irabu was supposed to be a good pitcher too

 

true, if he does turn into a dominant star, us fans will say the FO shouldve gotten him. But if we spend the money on him and he busts, fans dont feel the pain of paying him 15 mil a year, but the FO does, therefore they have to take that into serious consideration

[schillingouttheks]

Why would you want Zito? Especially at Fenway? He's a soft tossing Fenway who would face a majority of righty batters with the monster in left, and that's a formula for disaster. I would love Matsuzaka.

 

Why did you leave Breslow out of our bullpen? How about instead of paying for a FA lefty, we just call up Breslow? He's been absolutely dealing in the chances he's been given.

[mar_022]

Why did you leave Breslow out of our bullpen? How about instead of paying for a FA lefty' date=' we just call up Breslow? He's been absolutely dealing in the chances he's been given.[/quote']

 

i completely forgot about breslow...living in wisconsin i dont get to see many games and the box scores dont really tell the whole story when he pitches 1/3 inning...he would be a good inside the club option

[rician blast]

some thoughts on one current Sox player and a couple of FA's:

 

Breslow

I like some of what I've seen from Breslow, but despite his excellent numbers this year and last, he gets limited work...last year wasn't called up til July 25th...this year he is primarily a late season call-up as well.

 

I know he's only 26 but he's throwing up decent numbers yet something has held back two organizations from using him more than they do....maybe they're trying not to rush him and allowing him to develop?

 

I do think he's earned some more work and would like to see him pitch more down the stretch here...not just as a lefty specialist. My kid went to a pitching clinic this winter and Beslow was there and worked with him...he seems like a real intelligent and quietely intense kid and I'd like to see him succeed.

 

Meche

Someone suggested picking up a cheap FA and threw out Meche's name. I have a feeling this guy is gonna garner interest from a lot of teams and will not be all that inexpensive.

 

He's 10-8 right now

on pace to eat up 185 innings or so

currently has a 4.28 era

makes $3.6m or so this year

he's 28

geez...he sounds an awful lot like none other than:

 

Bronson Anthony Arroyo!

 

too bad the Sox owned Arroyo at $3m, likely more for the 2007 season, but the point is, it will probably cost $6M or more for Meche. And let's not forget the Yanks have Lidle as a FA, Mussina a FA, team option on Jaret Wright...they'll be in the mix on all these guys, whether grabbing them or pushing up their asking prices.

 

I think the Sox get or come close to getting Meche.

 

Schmidt

One of the top guys out there on the FA market this offseason. Currently makes $10.5m and is 33. He'll likely be looking for a 4-5 year deal.

 

He had a shoulder strain in '05 and a groin problem also. At 33 I'm guessing the contract length will be of primary concern...will Sox be willing to go as long as other teams might in terms of contract length, given the FO desire to NOT tie up $ long-term? I'm not sure, and I think the Yankees could be a factor here.

 

His K rate is much lower than his best season in '02 through '04...maybe I'm reading too much into that since his ERA is 4th in the NL for pitchers with more than 160 innings. I like what I've seen from him, he competes and that goes a long way, IMO.

 

Anyone know if he's expressed a preference, i.e. NL vs AL, going to a contender, etc? I think he's look good in a Sox uni, I think he'd be very effective, but, IMO...

 

Schmidt is NOT Santana or Halliday, but he could be very good...I'm just not sure if the contract length or his asking price might have the Sox going in a different direction...I think its totally up in the air whether he lands in New England or not.

 

I wouldn't rule out a trade for a potential 2008 FA that a team feels they have no shot to retain, but given the recent performances by minor-league players that the FO did choose to move, I'm not thrilled by the prospect.

 

General

I think the only folks more confused than the Sox fans when it comes to where this team is headed might be the FO.

 

- 2004 proved that Pitching is paramount, yet they trade away Arroyo?

- Sox are in a bit of a youth movement, yet you trade away a Hanley and Sanchez for established players?

- now that you've traded young guys already and have a chance to win this year, you do nothing at the trade deadline (i.e. Oswalt).

 

Lots of questions to be answered.

[Papelbon58]

i think we are overestimating how many pitchers our FO is going to go after. They are going to pick 1 of the Matsuzaka/Schmidt/Zito(i agree, bad idea for Fenway). And where you think you are going to find a good set up man, or even more unlikely, a great closer, I have no idea. I think with Varitek, Hansen Breslow and MDC will be considerably better next season, just by experience. We can hope for another starter, and Meche is a good possibility, but believe it or not, other teams want pitching too, and we didn't just win the World Series this time.

[rician blast]

but believe it or not' date=' other teams want pitching too.[/quote']

 

My point exactly...there isn't an abundance of arms in the FA market and the forces of supply and demand will increase the cost of the more valuable guys.

 

Also, let's remember the Sox FO is playing with house money right now. There is an element in the current Sox fan base that seems pretty accepting of whatever the FO decides to do... and Lucky Larry and friends know it.

 

It is not a given that the Red Sox will be able to get any of the top FA's.

[a700hitter]

Also' date=' let's remember the Sox FO is playing with house money right now. There is an element in the current Sox fan base that seems pretty accepting of whatever the FO decides to do... and Lucky Larry and friends know it.[/quote']That was certainly true in 2005 and at the beginning of this season, but I am not so sure that the FO still has any great degree of trust from the fan base. The print media has been hitting them hard recently.

[rician blast]

That was certainly true in 2005 and at the beginning of this season' date=' but I am not so sure that the FO still has any great degree of trust from the fan base. The print media has been hitting them hard recently.[/quote']

 

 

I guess I'm thinking of those fans that Mr. Crunchy refers to as the "pink hats and cell phones" when I think about the FO playing with house money.

 

The stream of revenues flowing from these "fans", many of whom jumped on the bandwagon after 2004, is strong..and those folks seem to care less about the product...as long as they can "see and be seen" at Fenway and do the wave and sing "Sweet Caroline" they'll plow their dough into the Sox coffers.

 

Eventually, as you point out, that goodwill will fade if the team goes on a prolonged slide. I just don't want to see the Sox muddle through 90 win seasons with 'fair' teams that have a $100m+ payroll and maybe make the playoffs now and then but aren't equipped to go anywhere.

 

I can stand a rebuild...or I can take them going all out after FA to try and win it...but I'd like to be able to tell which direction they're going in.

[mtbykr]

I wouldn't want any part of Zito--he would be a disaster. I think they will have something like this:

 

Shill

Beckett

Wake

Lester (if he can make it)

AAA guy or Snyder

 

I think they will give Snyder a look in spring training and either give him the 5 hole or the long relief guy. I keep hearing rumblings about Paps coming back into the rotation, but i don't see them giving up on him as a closer unless they can get a great closer in the offseason---because Hansen may be that guy in the future, but it's not next year!

[Mr Crunchy]

i have no objections to using snyder as a 5

lester shouldnt be in the equation

its cancer,not a groin pull

while we hope he ends up well its not a given that he'll be healthy

i dont want to revisit the uncertainty that had 10 fukin guys being used as a 5th starter

snyder has a mlb curve ball

for some reason he cant go 6 and labors badly late in games

kc cut him but i dont think hes pitched as bad as a kc waiver wire product would

[arbitrary]

That was certainly true in 2005 and at the beginning of this season' date=' but I am not so sure that the FO still has any great degree of trust from the fan base. The print media has been hitting them hard recently.[/quote']

 

Don't the Boston papers always give them a hard time?

[elsrbueno]

I think what the Red Sox will do is what the Red Sox SHOULD do, and that's play the market. If they can pick up a reasonable closing option, do it, because a closer should be cheaper than a starter and Papelbon can start IMO.

 

I agree that we can't count on Lester at all. If he comes back consider it a bonus at this point.

 

I've been impressed with Snyder, probably because my expectations were so low.

 

The bottom line is I think the Sox learned their lesson-- that even though you THINK you have too much pitching.... you don't.

 

Gil Meche could be a bargain pickup as a back end of the rotation starter. I think the Sox right now have 3 #3's (Schilling, Wakefield, Beckett) and a bunch of 4/5 types (Gabbard, Lester when he comes back, Clement, Snyder). What they need to focus on is an ace. Jason Schmidt could fill that role better than anyone, but don't rule out a trade for an Oswalt type guy either.

 

I have to disagree that the Red Sox went away from their youth movement with the Marlins trade last year. The centerpiece of that deal was a 26 year old pitcher who was not only effective NOW but also they thought could develop into an ace. It's not like they traded Hanley and Anibal for John Smoltz or something like that.

 

I think the Sox understand (or they should) that guys like Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz historically have not aged well. They need to take advantage of having one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball and put a contending team around it.

 

While I don't trust Matsuzaka until he does it in the major leagues, the Sox have to take a shot at him. He's 25 and obviously has good stuff. He MAY become Irabu, but even if they get a Nomo-esque production from him he'll be worth the money.

 

I say get a veteran to mentor Craig Hansen in the closer's role and turn the job over to him mid-season. Then have that veteran set up for Hansen for the rest of the year.

 

I'd say if you're in a predicting mood, put more money on them getting Meche or someone his caliber than Schmidt. I don't see the Sox outbidding the other teams needing an ace.

[mar_022]

I wouldn't want any part of Zito--he would be a disaster. I think they will have something like this:

 

Shill

Beckett

Wake

Lester (if he can make it)

AAA guy or Snyder

 

I think they will give Snyder a look in spring training and either give him the 5 hole or the long relief guy. I keep hearing rumblings about Paps coming back into the rotation, but i don't see them giving up on him as a closer unless they can get a great closer in the offseason---because Hansen may be that guy in the future, but it's not next year!

 

There are two problems here: you cant even count lester at this point, and although i agree snyder could be a solid enough no 5, as soon as injury strikes, then what...you need 5 deep rotation with two long men who could start (ie Gabbard, Snyder, Tavarez)

[Papelbon58]

I think Snyder has earned a spot in next year's bullpen. I don't know about Kason Gabbard yet, I would like Pauley to get a shot at a rotation spot in spring training, he was solid in his time in Boston.

[Cocos Disciples]

Snyder as a 5 man? I'll pass. He's been good in his time, but has anybody really faced him more than once or maybe twice? Gil "Gilgamesh" Meche

[schillingouttheks]

I think Snyder has earned a spot in next year's bullpen. I don't know about Kason Gabbard yet' date=' I would like Pauley to get a shot at a rotation spot in spring training, he was solid in his time in Boston.[/quote']

 

No, he wasn't. He was good in New York, and he showed some balls when he pitched up here, but he is NOT ready. Wasn't his ERA over 12 when he was up here? That's not solid.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, it wasn't over 12, it was 7.88. That's still not solid.

[example1]

I wouldn't want any part of Zito--he would be a disaster. I think they will have something like this:

 

Shill

Beckett

Wake

Lester (if he can make it)

AAA guy or Snyder

 

I think they will give Snyder a look in spring training and either give him the 5 hole or the long relief guy. I keep hearing rumblings about Paps coming back into the rotation, but i don't see them giving up on him as a closer unless they can get a great closer in the offseason---because Hansen may be that guy in the future, but it's not next year!

 

 

This is essentially their 06 post-June rotation, isn't it? Lester won't be back.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Curt Schilling

Josh Beckett

Tim Wakefield

Kason Gabbard (Jon Lester)

 

 

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Jon Lester

Clay Buchholz

Michael Bowden

Daniel Bard

......2009?

[example1]

I'm pretty sure you're skipping 08, but here's my 08 roster (with a liberal dose of Matsuzaka)

 

Matsuzaka (27)

Beckett (28)

Papelbon (28)

Lester (24)

Bard (23)

or Buchholz (24)

 

Lineup could be:

 

Ellsbury

Youkilis

Ortiz

Ramirez

Pena

Varitek

1b/3b

SS

Pedroia

 

perhaps with Crisp as a #4 OF/Platoon player.

[a700hitter]

The Sox need to bring new blood into the top of the rotation. They don't have anyone in the organization that can fill that role next year.

[a700hitter]

I guess I'm thinking of those fans that Mr. Crunchy refers to as the "pink hats and cell phones" when I think about the FO playing with house money.

 

The stream of revenues flowing from these "fans", many of whom jumped on the bandwagon after 2004, is strong..and those folks seem to care less about the product...as long as they can "see and be seen" at Fenway and do the wave and sing "Sweet Caroline" they'll plow their dough into the Sox coffers.

 

Eventually, as you point out, that goodwill will fade if the team goes on a prolonged slide. I just don't want to see the Sox muddle through 90 win seasons with 'fair' teams that have a $100m+ payroll and maybe make the playoffs now and then but aren't equipped to go anywhere.

 

I can stand a rebuild...or I can take them going all out after FA to try and win it...but I'd like to be able to tell which direction they're going in.

Good points

[a700hitter]

Interesting article. I realize this is just Schilling yapping, but he is closer to these things than any of us. I think it gives us cause to be optimistic about an aggressive off-season team to rebuild this team to compete in '07. The quote from JH is also encouraging. This off-season will should give us a good indication of whether there is still some fan left in Theo or whether he is just a FO suit with Ivy league credentials. I prefer to think he is a fan at his core. I'll never forget his expression and demeanor after the 2003 ALCS. He looked like a disappointed fan more so than a businessman. I remember I called my son after watching Theo's post-game interview, and I told him that I though if Theo could have fired Little right then and there he would. I believe Little was gone the next day after the WS was over. That showed me just how serious he was about winning and how much he hated losing to the Yankees. I'm hoping to see some of that fire in his off-season approach.

 

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=157629

[MANNYHOF24]

If this is the case, I cant wait until Febuary 18th

[a700hitter]

Is the Orioles Benson a FA after this year? He's not a bad back of the rotation option.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Is the Orioles Benson a FA after this year? He's not a bad back of the rotation option.

 

I want his wife. The only thing I would look forward too with that signing.... seeing her in Fenway Park.

[rician blast]

I'll never forget his expression and demeanor after the 2003 ALCS. He looked like a disappointed fan more so than a businessman.

 

i remember in the eight inning they put the camera on him and when Pedro came out he and those around him (was it Henry and Werner?) were already like "what the fu*k is Grady doing?"

 

I've also wondered what Embree, TImlin and Williamson were thinking. These guys HAD to be pissed that they weren't being brought in...they'd been almost unhittable up to that point.