Pitching Staff "07

[example1]

Bill Lee was asoft-tossing lefty when Fenway was a hitters haven when it was only a single deck stadium. All the additions have cut down on wind aided fly balls' date=' and Fenway is no longer a Home Run launching pad. Lee was a consistent winner and a bona fide Yankee Killer. Bruce Hurst did n't throw harder than Zito, and he was very effective in Fenway. Zito is a very good pitcher that has been very consistent performer in his still young career.[/quote']

 

 

Neither Lee nor Hurst were worth #1 starter money.

[ORS]

But he isn't a Yankee killer.

 

I like Zito because he takes the bump every 5th day and gives you a reasonable chance to win. That said, he's been hit or miss in big games and he can have some control problems. I'd take him, but he's going to cost a lot.

 

One of the things to consider about Fenway is the foul territory. The Oakland Coliseum has the largest amount of foul territory in baseball, Fenway the smallest. He'll lose some of his cheap outs, and he's entering a league with some premier RHB. The Jays kill LHP with Wells, Glaus, and Molina having huge splits against them. The Yankees have become more LH this year, but they still have premiere RHB's. The heart of the O's order is RH. The D-Rays sluggers are RH. Fenway has become a pitcher friendly park for the HR, but I think that has more to do with the 2nd deck (and adjacent building behind the pressbox) taking away helping wind to CF and RF. A cheap pop still gets out of LF.

 

I'm skeptical that he will be worth what he will get if he comes here.

 

I think they should get Schmidt for a couple of reasons. He's older, so they'll likely be able to go with a smaller commitment. He's a power RHP. And, ulitimately, I think he's a better pitcher.

[example1]

But he isn't a Yankee killer.

 

I like Zito because he takes the bump every 5th day and gives you a reasonable chance to win. That said, he's been hit or miss in big games and he can have some control problems. I'd take him, but he's going to cost a lot.

 

One of the things to consider about Fenway is the foul territory. The Oakland Coliseum has the largest amount of foul territory in baseball, Fenway the smallest. He'll lose some of his cheap outs, and he's entering a league with some premier RHB. The Jays kill LHP with Wells, Glaus, and Molina having huge splits against them. The Yankees have become more LH this year, but they still have premiere RHB's. The heart of the O's order is RH. The D-Rays sluggers are RH. Fenway has become a pitcher friendly park for the HR, but I think that has more to do with the 2nd deck (and adjacent building behind the pressbox) taking away helping wind to CF and RF. A cheap pop still gets out of LF.

 

I'm skeptical that he will be worth what he will get if he comes here.

 

I think they should get Schmidt for a couple of reasons. He's older, so they'll likely be able to go with a smaller commitment. He's a power RHP. And, ulitimately, I think he's a better pitcher.

 

What do you know about Schmidt's health right now? Was it a shoulder or elbow issue that he had?

 

I watched his June 6th start against FLA last night. 16 K, 1 ER, CG. Damn impressive and he was throwing very hard.

[MC Hammer]

But he isn't a Yankee killer.

 

I like Zito because he takes the bump every 5th day and gives you a reasonable chance to win. That said, he's been hit or miss in big games and he can have some control problems. I'd take him, but he's going to cost a lot.

 

One of the things to consider about Fenway is the foul territory. The Oakland Coliseum has the largest amount of foul territory in baseball, Fenway the smallest. He'll lose some of his cheap outs, and he's entering a league with some premier RHB. The Jays kill LHP with Wells, Glaus, and Molina having huge splits against them. The Yankees have become more LH this year, but they still have premiere RHB's. The heart of the O's order is RH. The D-Rays sluggers are RH. Fenway has become a pitcher friendly park for the HR, but I think that has more to do with the 2nd deck (and adjacent building behind the pressbox) taking away helping wind to CF and RF. A cheap pop still gets out of LF.

 

I'm skeptical that he will be worth what he will get if he comes here.

 

I think they should get Schmidt for a couple of reasons. He's older, so they'll likely be able to go with a smaller commitment. He's a power RHP. And, ulitimately, I think he's a better pitcher.

I agree with everything about Zito, but I'm not wild about going after Schmidt either. None of the big name FA pitchers really stand out for me as the right fit.

[ORS]

What do you know about Schmidt's health right now? Was it a shoulder or elbow issue that he had?

 

I watched his June 6th start against FLA last night. 16 K, 1 ER, CG. Damn impressive and he was throwing very hard.

I don't recall. All I know is that he started 32 games, pitching 213 innings, with 3 CG this year. He a prototypical big-gun, power RHP. Big frame, stong foundation, good mechanics. Plus, he's another guy with a top-notch splitter to work with Beckett and Papelbon.

[ORS]

I agree with everything about Zito' date=' but I'm not wild about going after Schmidt either. None of the big name FA pitchers really stand out for me as the right fit.[/quote']

 

Expect that trend to continue. Halladay and Oswalt got extended, so they won't be on the market after next year. Zambrano and Carpenter are the next best two that aren't signed beyond '07 right now, but I think both of their clubs get a deal done this offseason.

[a700hitter]

But he isn't a Yankee killer.

You are right about this' date=' but he is not a Yankee patsy either, and being with a team with a superior offense might garner him some additional wins.

I like Zito because he takes the bump every 5th day and gives you a reasonable chance to win. That said, he's been hit or miss in big games and he can have some control problems. I'd take him, but he's going to cost a lot.

The market for good pitching is what it is. The Red Sox can't complain about money, because few teams have more.

I'm skeptical that he will be worth what he will get if he comes here.

You are right to be skeptical, because it is a lot of $, but how many pitchers are out there that you would feel comfortable giving such a contract? You probably would not be able to count much beyond one hand.

[a700hitter]

Neither Lee nor Hurst were worth #1 starter money.

The market is waht it is. We need pitching. If we don't pay market prices for it, we won't be good. Pedro made $17 million in his last year and Schilling made $13-14 million in '04. Good pitching costs.

[mar_022]

Red Sox reporter Ian Browne wrote today that all reports on Jon Lester are optimistic as he undergoes chemotherapy, and said "Lester will hopefully be able to make a full recovery and return in 2007".

 

While i wouldnt count on lester, he could potentially be a great surprise and boost to the team, and its just great to hear that he is recovering

[example1]

The market is waht it is. We need pitching. If we don't pay market prices for it' date=' we won't be good. Pedro made $17 million in his last year and Schilling made $13-14 million in '04. Good pitching costs.[/quote']

 

Right, but you don't break the bank to get a pitcher who will demand "anchoring the rotation" money if you don't like him and don't have interest in keeping him around for 4 years. Zito is good but I don't think he's going to improve much beyond where he's at already.

[a700hitter]

Right' date=' but you don't break the bank to get a pitcher who will demand "anchoring the rotation" money if you don't like him and don't have interest in keeping him around for 4 years. Zito is good but I don't think he's going to improve much beyond where he's at already.[/quote']But he is only 27 or 28.

[example1]

But he is only 27 or 28.

 

I just don't see him getting much better. I know he's only 28, but he is striking out fewer and walking more players than he used to. He also doesn't have the electric stuff that other pitchers with high upside have. I know he's very, very good... don't get me wrong. He's just my 3rd most coveted pitcher this offseason. Any of those 3 will be terriffic but all things being equal I'm all for Matsuzaka and then Schmidt.

[a700hitter]

I just don't see him getting much better. I know he's only 28' date=' but he is striking out fewer and walking more players than he used to. He also doesn't have the electric stuff that other pitchers with high upside have. I know he's very, very good... don't get me wrong. He's just my 3rd most coveted pitcher this offseason. Any of those 3 will be terriffic but all things being equal I'm all for Matsuzaka and then Schmidt.[/quote']I can't see throwing big bucks at a guy that hasn't pitched an inning in the major leagues, and I like Schmidt, but we don't know what his ERA will jump to in the AL plus he has had arm troubles.

[wave it fair]

Right' date=' but you don't break the bank to get a pitcher who will demand "anchoring the rotation" money if you don't like him and don't have interest in keeping him around for 4 years. Zito is good but I don't think he's going to improve much beyond where he's at already.[/quote']

 

That's an excellent point about Zito. You have to wonder how much better he would be. Especially in a place like Boston. Normally I don't like pulling out conversation about Boston being a tough place to play, but it's becoming a normal conversation to have. And if you're talking about signing him for,.. I say he's going to command 5 yrs at 75 mil or more you better be sure he's going to be an anchor on this staff for the majority of that time. I don't see Zito putting up those kind of numbers. He'd probably be solid to very good, but that kind of salary isn't what you'd be paying for.

 

Seems to me that with Papelbon coming back to the rotation, Beckett probably being more effective the second tiome around in the American league and Schill more than likely having another competitive year the Sox have a good start to the staff. After that you'll have a choice of Clement, Wake and maybe a pitcher found in a trade somewhere to round out the last two spot in the rotation. I'd love to put Lester in that conversation, but who knows where he'll be at that point healthwise.

 

So again, great point that breaking the bank for one of the guys available on the market is a really risky proposition. Seems to me the money could be spent better with help for the pen or a shakeup in the lineup.

[a700hitter]

That's an excellent point about Zito. You have to wonder how much better he would be. Especially in a place like Boston. Normally I don't like pulling out conversation about Boston being a tough place to play, but it's becoming a normal conversation to have. And if you're talking about signing him for,.. I say he's going to command 5 yrs at 75 mil or more you better be sure he's going to be an anchor on this staff for the majority of that time. I don't see Zito putting up those kind of numbers. He'd probably be solid to very good, but that kind of salary isn't what you'd be paying for.

 

Seems to me that with Papelbon coming back to the rotation, Beckett probably being more effective the second tiome around in the American league and Schill more than likely having another competitive year the Sox have a good start to the staff. After that you'll have a choice of Clement, Wake and maybe a pitcher found in a trade somewhere to round out the last two spot in the rotation. I'd love to put Lester in that conversation, but who knows where he'll be at that point healthwise.

 

So again, great point that breaking the bank for one of the guys available on the market is a really risky proposition. Seems to me the money could be spent better with help for the pen or a shakeup in the lineup.

There's not much reason for optimism about Clement who is likely not to be ready when the season starts. Lester is not ready for prime time even if he is healthy. Papelbon was a great closer, but that doesn't equate to being a great starter. The Sox need to add a top of the rotation arm.

[example1]

So again, great point that breaking the bank for one of the guys available on the market is a really risky proposition. Seems to me the money could be spent better with help for the pen or a shakeup in the lineup.

 

I don't totally agree with this last sentence. I think if the sox want to upgrade their starting staff they are going to need to take a chance. The Sox MUST upgrade their pitching, as they are not going to have an offense that can compete on its own with the Yankees or even the Jays.

 

The rest of it was great though.

 

I can't see throwing big bucks at a guy that hasn't pitched an inning in the major leagues, and I like Schmidt, but we don't know what his ERA will jump to in the AL plus he has had arm troubles.

 

I can. This guy is the 26 year old best pitcher in Japan. If he was the best pitcher in the dominican and 26, or Cuba or Venezuela then nobody would be willing to say the Sox shouldn't go after him. But because the Japanese haven't produced a truly dominant pitcher people are not willing to say that about Matsuzaka. I would definitely make a solid bid on him, as he pitches differently than most Japanese exports of recent years. He doesn't have a really funky delivery and appears very healthy.

 

As for Schmidt I would go for him too (depending on what happens with Matsuzaka). He's got better stuff than Zito, has generally been pretty healthy, and he has a great arsenal of pitches to work with. He would definitely be a nice addition.

[a700hitter]

I can. This guy is the 26 year old best pitcher in Japan. If he was the best pitcher in the dominican and 26' date=' or Cuba or Venezuela then nobody would be willing to say the Sox shouldn't go after him. But because the Japanese haven't produced a truly dominant pitcher people are not willing to say that about Matsuzaka. I would definitely make a solid bid on him, as he pitches differently than most Japanese exports of recent years. He doesn't have a really funky delivery and appears very healthy.[/quote']He's going to cost way more than has been paid for any pitcher from cuba or the Dominican. I wouldn't give that kind of money to a Cuban or Dominican that hadn't pitched in the majors.

[example1]

I think it comes with the territory. If you want top notch talent then you will have to pay for it, especially young pitching.

 

Granted, if the Sox don't get him and the Yankees do, I won't mind complaining about the exorbanent sum they paid to get him. But if he ends up being the best pitcher on the market this year and he goes to our biggest rival, I can see another 10 years of looking up at them.

[wave it fair]

I'm also of the opinion that the Red Sox should be willing to engage in the process of bidding for the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka. They don't have the top revenue stream in the majors, but they rank right up there. Then keep in mind that the Sox, if they win the bidding war certainly are not in a position that requires them to break the bank. Matsuzaka would certainly want a nice deal, but it isn't going to be the richest contract in all of baseball either. He will be somewhat forced to fit into a team's payroll framework or be forced to head back to Japan and have to wait until 2008 for his next opportunity to sign with a MLB club.

 

But I would caution anyone who feels Matsuzaka is going to toe the rubber and be dominant right out of the shoot. He'll certainly have a little advantage initially considering he's an unknown with great movement on his pitches. However, Matsuzaka is super successful to some degree by the style of play in the Japanese leagues. It's a much different style of play meaning the batters are far more aggressive trying to put a ball in play. Especially with runners on. With that in mind... Matsuzaka still has been known to throw a ton of pitches per start. In MLB it's a more patient style. Once MLB hitters get a look at him he's going to have to prove he can throw a lot of that breaking stuff for strikes.

 

Don't get me wrong... I like what I've seen of the guy, I want the Sox to bid on his rights and would be estatic if they got him. I just view him as a guy who's going to have to adjust to a much different approch by the hitters he'll have to face in this league.

[riverside sluggers]

There's not much reason for optimism about Clement who is likely not to be ready when the season starts. Lester is not ready for prime time even if he is healthy. Papelbon was a great closer' date=' but that doesn't equate to being a great starter. The Sox need to add a top of the rotation arm.[/quote']

 

Clement should only be an after thought. Let alone the MRI they took on his shoulder showed serious damage. The surgery & rehab will take up the 07 season