The Great Debate: Is Paps our closer in '07?

[Matt]

I think it's as simple as this. If the Red Sox don't make any moves to acquire a frontline starter this off-season, then Papelbon will jump into the rotation. If the Red Sox are able to acquire somebody via trade, say Oswalt or Peavy, then I think Papelbon will stay in the pen until after the 2007 season, when Schilling retires.

[jsinger121]

I think it's as simple as this. If the Red Sox don't make any moves to acquire a frontline starter this off-season, then Papelbon will jump into the rotation. If the Red Sox are able to acquire somebody via trade, say Oswalt or Peavy, then I think Papelbon will stay in the pen until after the 2007 season, when Schilling retires.

 

That only happens if the Red Sox can find a closer.

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

I see you guys are tossing names around like Oswalt and Peavy. What are you guys giving up for them?

[ksushi]

Yeah, Oswalt and Peavy aren't gonna come to Boston. I think the Sox will land a top teir starter. My last post was a little jumbled, but the Yankees are gonna be top competition to land that Japanese guy. Letting him go to the Yankees would be bad. I think after taking on Bobby Abreu that getting Sheffields contract off the books is cancelled out. So they still have a sizeable payroll and I just don't see them adding another 11-15 million on to it. The sox have lost a lot of payroll in the last two seasons, they can easily add that kind of a contract and you better hope they do.

 

Someone the other day was talking about how we all better get used not competing because the Sox are in this for the future and we won't compete for another five years or so. I think if we are big players in this offseason for some of the better pitchers that we can have a great chance to go deep in the post season next year. Zito, Japanese guy, and Schmidt are gonna be a big deal this offseason. The sox will be in on them. Acquiring a pitcher like that means Papelbon can stay in the pen. I think until Schill retires, he should. Papelbon is a freak. Its not really even fair how good he is.

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

I think after taking on Bobby Abreu that getting Sheffields contract off the books is cancelled out. So they still have a sizeable payroll and I just don't see them adding another 11-15 million on to it.

Thats not really true. Mussina's 17 million dollar contract is coming off the books. Even if they re-sign him it will be at a reduced contract. Also Jaret Wright will get his contract bought out and they also lose Cory Lidle's 3 million and Craig Wilson's 3 million. The Yankees will have some money to spend.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Thats not really true. Mussina's 17 million dollar contract is coming off the books. Even if they re-sign him it will be at a reduced rate. Also Jaret Wright will get his contract bought out and they also lose Cory Lidle's 3 million and Craig Wilson's 3 million. The Yankees will have some money to spend.

 

Even if nobody was leaving the Yankees they would have money to spend.

[ORS]

Thats not really true. Mussina's 17 million dollar contract is coming off the books. Even if they re-sign him it will be at a reduced contract. Also Jaret Wright will get his contract bought out and they also lose Cory Lidle's 3 million and Craig Wilson's 3 million. The Yankees will have some money to spend.

Has Mussina said he would sign for less? I can't imagine a guy in contention for the Cy would take less when there is a team option still on the table. He's got the upper hand there. They either pick up the option, or his services hit the market.

[BoSox Rule]

I hope he's not our closer next year, since he has the ability to be a 3.20 ERA starter.

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

Has Mussina said he would sign for less? I can't imagine a guy in contention for the Cy would take less when there is a team option still on the table. He's got the upper hand there. They either pick up the option, or his services hit the market.

Mussina said in spring training that he knows the Yankees wont pick up his option because the market has changed. He signed that contract in a time where contracts were on the rise. Hes going to be 38? No one is giving him 17 million. Hes will prob get a 10-12 million dollar contract. Hey, if he out prices himself I'll gladly take the draft picks and move on with someone like Jason Schmidt.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, Oswalt and Peavy aren't gonna come to Boston. I think the Sox will land a top teir starter. My last post was a little jumbled, but the Yankees are gonna be top competition to land that Japanese guy. Letting him go to the Yankees would be bad. I think after taking on Bobby Abreu that getting Sheffields contract off the books is cancelled out. So they still have a sizeable payroll and I just don't see them adding another 11-15 million on to it. The sox have lost a lot of payroll in the last two seasons, they can easily add that kind of a contract and you better hope they do.

 

Someone the other day was talking about how we all better get used not competing because the Sox are in this for the future and we won't compete for another five years or so. I think if we are big players in this offseason for some of the better pitchers that we can have a great chance to go deep in the post season next year. Zito, Japanese guy, and Schmidt are gonna be a big deal this offseason. The sox will be in on them. Acquiring a pitcher like that means Papelbon can stay in the pen. I think until Schill retires, he should. Papelbon is a freak. Its not really even fair how good he is.

 

See, the media is speculating that Matsuzacka will be a battle between Japanese owned Seattle and NYY. I for one know that Theo wouldnt even consider going after him. Why you ask? Because he will cost at least 20 mil in posting cost, which will not be counted against luxury tax, but that is 20 mil up front. Then you will have to negotiate with a 26 yr old ace, which will likely cost in the range of AJ Burnett money, 5yr 55mil. That is 5yrs 75 mil on a pitcher who has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. He could spend half that and land Schmidt.

[jacksonianmarch]

Mussina said in spring training that he knows the Yankees wont pick up his option because the market has changed. He signed that contract in a time where contracts were on the rise. Hes going to be 38? No one is giving him 17 million. Hes will prob get a 10-12 million dollar contract. Hey, if he out prices himself I'll gladly take the draft picks and move on with someone like Jason Schmidt.

 

That is where I think the Yankees are looking. This season just so happens to be his healthiest season in awhile and he has regained his ace status, but will it last? The Yankees no doubt will reject his option, and will likely offer him a 2 yr deal at around 10 a season. If he walks, he'll be worth 2 draft picks and they can get younger and cheaper with Schmidt. That would still leave them with one rotation spot open assuming they buyout Wright and I think Matsuzacka would fit in right there. Imagine this rotation next yr for NYY.

 

1. Matsuzacka

2. Schmidt or Mussina

3. Wang

4. Johnson

5. Pavano with Hughes and Clippard in the wings

 

the yankees years of having bad rotations are over. The sox will have to answer.

[Manny Goes Boom]

My only problem with going for a former NL pitcher, is that they don't seem to be the same pitcher when brought over to the AL. Clement, Pavano, Wright...I mean there not just our acquisitions but it seems like that is the case throughout the board. I dunno...I just worry...s*** people said Maddux wouldn't accept a deal to the AL (and for good reason) so I'd be weary of signing a NL guy.

[Matt]

I see you guys are tossing names around like Oswalt and Peavy. What are you guys giving up for them?

 

I'd be willing to let go of Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, and a mid-level prospect to get Oswalt or Peavy. In a heartbeat.

[CrespoBlows]

Yes, i have gagne's urine sample here on my desk now. Of course I don;t have proof but it adds up very nicely. Go connect the dots. Steroids helps the resiliency of your arm a ton, it keeps you sharp day to day, it helps your velocity. Gagne had that amazing streak, its just as tained as the HR record to me. He comes back with a bunch of injuries and low velocity.

 

The guy has always had excellent velocity, but he never could hold it together to be a dominant starting pitcher. His velocity was reported to be in the mid 90's during the spring training until his elbow started hurting again. The guy may be fighting a chronic elbow problem, but I doubt he's a steriod user.

 

He is missing his edge. He was a steroid user im pretty sure. When all these supposed big names come out of who used from this whole grimsely case, probably a few years down the road, Gagne will be one of those names.

 

More hearsay.

 

Gagne and Grimsley played a grand total of ZERO games together. How sure are you of that accusation?

[Jon_Papelboner]

Well whoopdie doo, a 3.20 starter and a hole in the bullpen.

[CrespoBlows]

In the American League, that's an ace.

 

Besides, you can find a good reliever to give you good innings in the closer's role, easier then it is to find an ace. (See Mike Timlin, 2005)

[ORS]

Right, because 3.20 ERAs grow on trees in the AL East. There's a whole whopping none of them in this league.

 

This is presupposing that he can even pitch to that level, which is doubtful. If he can pitch to a 3.50 ERA in this league and provide more that 200 innings of that level of performance, it would be insane to keep him in the BP.

[He Hate Me]

I'll just say this. It seems a lot easier to find guys who save 40 games a year than guys who win 16+. If Papelbon can go starter innings with the stuff that he has, you've gotta look to turn him into a starter.

[Teddyballgame10]

You start him next year b/c he will be that good. I liked the gagne idea, im sure there is someone out there to fill in for a year untill hansenis ready. You forgett that hansen and declerman will be better next year. Also about paps first couple starts you cant take much form them especially the walks, what rookie doesnt walk alot in his first few games, man throw him a break. Ide trust hansen and MD next year who ever is more ready, but by all means try and pick someone up.

 

Also what makes you guys think loretta is going to walk. Why wouldnt the sox sigh him back. Hes having a nice season.

[ksushi]

See, the media is speculating that Matsuzacka will be a battle between Japanese owned Seattle and NYY. I for one know that Theo wouldnt even consider going after him. Why you ask? Because he will cost at least 20 mil in posting cost, which will not be counted against luxury tax, but that is 20 mil up front. Then you will have to negotiate with a 26 yr old ace, which will likely cost in the range of AJ Burnett money, 5yr 55mil. That is 5yrs 75 mil on a pitcher who has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. He could spend half that and land Schmidt.

 

 

Yeah, Theo hates young pitchers. He would way rather have Schmidt who may or may not be healthy for his entire contract. I think this offseason money will be no object for the FO. The sox are not going to just sit around and watch the Yankees build a great young rotation. Theo always says that they don't make moves with the Yankees in mind, but thats a load of caca, you always watch what all of your division opponents are doing and make your moves accordingly. The sox will certainly be in on Matsuzaka. I would give a 26 year old ace all the money in the world and I can't believe that Theo would let an oppurtunity like that pass.

 

I'm sure the Yankees will have money to spend. I'm not saying George is going to be wandering the bronx rattling a cup full of change or anything. They always have cash. I think the sox will have more cash flexibility this offseason. I mean, I'm not expert on the Yankees contract situations, I'm sure that most yankees fans know way better than I do. But, Yankees or not, no cash flow is infinite. Its gotta slow down eventually, and I don't think Mussina is coming off the books. Like someone pointed out, he has the upperhand and I don't think the Yankees wanna let go of him. I would love them to let him go, so I'm sure they wont.

[ORS]

Also what makes you guys think loretta is going to walk. Why wouldnt the sox sigh him back. Hes having a nice season.

Dustin Pedroia.

[He Hate Me]

Moose will be back, but not at his current salary. he'll probably ask for $13 mil. I think he'll sign for around 10 per for 2 years

[Teddyballgame10]

Dustin Pedroia.

 

Ehh I'de like to see him in AAA for one more year.

[ksushi]

Yeah, I love it when great prospects sit and waste when we could use their services which come at a fraction of the price some of the veterans out there. He'll probably do as good a job too. I love watching the sox waste money.

[jsinger121]

Ehh I'de like to see him in AAA for one more year.

 

He has done everything he needs in AAA ball. He is ready.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Ehh I'de like to see him in AAA for one more year.

 

No way. Thats wasting great talent. Right now pitchers can't get him out. There is a great chance he will be as good if not better than Mark Loretta next season.

[riverside sluggers]

Yeah, I love it when great prospects sit and waste when we could use their services which come at a fraction of the price some of the veterans out there. He'll probably do as good a job too. I love watching the sox waste money.

 

Kevin Youkilis anyone?

[ORS]

Ehh I'de like to see him in AAA for one more year.

Please explain, because that really doesn't make any sense.

[Teddyballgame10]

First off my mistake on the pedoria comment i havnt checked his stats in a while and now its seems that yes hes ready for the big leagues. Anyway I dont know if this has been mentioned but SI spoke about moving papelbon to the rotation this year. Thats somthing i disagree with bc its jsut too late to build up arm strength, but I think it shows clearly that they would be better off with him in the rotation in 2007. They even say that teams often make the mistake of wasting quality arms in the bullpen. I think they defently need to move him to the rotation next year and we can defently find a quality closer for a year unill hansen is ready

[MC Hammer]

In the American League, that's an ace.

 

Besides, you can find a good reliever to give you good innings in the closer's role, easier then it is to find an ace. (See Mike Timlin, 2005)

Or you could have a dominate one which leaves no question if you give him the ball in the 9th. Hey I love winning 1 game every 5 days ... but I'd rather have a chance to win all 5 if we can get the lead to Paps.

 

Do you not remember last year? The feeling going into the 9th inning with a lead ... were you honestly comfortable once last year? I wasn't.

 

I'll take 40+ saves over 15 wins.