The Yankee Thread

[ORS]

The first 6 years for Beckett includes his first season in Boston. 5 years in the NL' date=' his ERA was at 3.46[/quote']

 

Yeah, I know, I wasn't trying to be exact. Even his career ERA supports my point, so I didn't feel like quibbling.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

Link? Show me an article with statistical analysis that shows the league adjustment is a full run. Off the top of my head I looked a few of the recent NL to AL transfers. Some were over a run (Loaiza - 1.20, Beckett - 1.50), most were less than a half a run (Schilling, Burnett, Vazquez), and a couple even lowered their ERA (Millwood, Haren).

 

That figure is public perception, and that's where you likely got it from.

 

Haven't found a statistical analysis, I will look more if I get time after work. But here are several more examples, and even an article discussing the issue with some GM's in the league who say the same thing:

 

http://www.sportscolumn.com/story/2006/8/21/224021/716

 

http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2521701 (ESPN Insider. Google this URL and view the cached page and you can read it.)

 

"You always had to make allowances," said another general manager. "It used to be you'd factor in a half-run difference in a pitcher's ERA (going from one league to the other). Now, it's more like one and a half runs -- or close to it."

 

Cases in point: recent free agent and trade busts such as Matt Clement, Carl Pavano, Randy Johnson, Esteban Loaiza and many other pitchers who have made difficult transitions from the NL to the AL. All have seen their ERAs rise significantly since coming to the AL over the last two years. Loaiza's struggles (3.77 ERA in 2005; 6.34 ERA this year) with the A's have been the most pronounced of the group.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/nesn/wilbur/sports_blog/blog/2006/06/21/national_disgrace/

 

We may miss them, but it’s becoming more and more evident exactly why Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, and Bronson Arroyo are flourishing in the NL (a combined 20-9). Heck, Alan Embree, who couldn’t buy an out last season, has a 3.65 ERA with the Padres this year. Conversely, we know why Rudy Seanez and Julian Tavarez came to Boston in the offseason with pretty good resumes. John Wasdin could switch leagues and become a 14-game-winner.

 

I understand there’s a time and place for hyperbole and that we may have just crossed it. But think about it, while Arroyo leads the list of guys who are enjoying success in the NL after life in the AL (as are guys like San Diego’s Chris Young -- 6-3, 3.27 -- and Philadelphia’s Tom Gordon -- 20 saves, 1.47 ERA), Baltimore’s Kris Benson (8-5, 4.32) is probably the pitcher with the most success in making the opposite transition. Other than that, you have plenty of your classic Matt Clement, AJ Burnett, and even Josh Beckett struggles to fall back on as primo examples.

 

Mike Remlinger is dependable in Atlanta. Kyle Farnsworth is anything but in the Bronx.

 

If the GMs take it into consideration, it must be more than public perception. Like I said I will try to find something statistical about the whole league.

[ORS]

Clement, Pavano, Vazquez (the first time), Johnson, and Kevin Brown are throw-away examples.

 

Clement only increased by .89 runs, but pitched to a first half ERA marginally higher than the 3.68 he posted in 2004. Hindsight shows that his arm was toast.

 

Pavano started the year very well last year, but got shelled a few times before hitting the DL. Hindsight again shows this is injury related more than a league adjustment.

 

Vazquez (first time) started the year well too in '04, but it has been widely reported that he pitched through a sore shoulder in the 2nd half. His second jump to the AL only resulted in a .40 gain.

 

For Brown and Johnson, look at this....

 

Player     Year      League     ERA

Brown      2003        NL       2.39
Brown      2004        AL       4.09
Brown      2005        AL       6.50

Johnson    2004        NL       2.60
Johnson    2005        AL       3.79
Johnson    2006        AL       5.00

 

They got even worse in their second year in the AL. Given their age and back problems, it's much more likely that the cause was physical than it was league adjustment.

 

Guestimating the number at one is complete crap. If it was 1, then the league ERAs would reflect that from year to year, but they don't. The difference is usually around .30 runs.

[ORS]

All of those articles do the same thing. They cherry-pick examples that agree with what they are trying to sell. None of them are sound statistical analysis.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

All of those articles do the same thing. They cherry-pick examples that agree with what they are trying to sell. None of them are sound statistical analysis.

 

I said that.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

Clement, Pavano, Vazquez (the first time), Johnson, and Kevin Brown are throw-away examples.

 

Clement only increased by .89 runs, but pitched to a first half ERA marginally higher than the 3.68 he posted in 2004. Hindsight shows that his arm was toast.

 

Pavano started the year very well last year, but got shelled a few times before hitting the DL. Hindsight again shows this is injury related more than a league adjustment.

 

Vazquez (first time) started the year well too in '04, but it has been widely reported that he pitched through a sore shoulder in the 2nd half. His second jump to the AL only resulted in a .40 gain.

 

For Brown and Johnson, look at this....

 

Player     Year      League     ERA

Brown      2003        NL       2.39
Brown      2004        AL       4.09
Brown      2005        AL       6.50

Johnson    2004        NL       2.60
Johnson    2005        AL       3.79
Johnson    2006        AL       5.00

 

They got even worse in their second year in the AL. Given their age and back problems, it's much more likely that the cause was physical than it was league adjustment.

 

Guestimating the number at one is complete crap. If it was 1, then the league ERAs would reflect that from year to year, but they don't. The difference is usually around .30 runs.

 

Obviously age was a huge factor for Brown and Johnson. I said that earlier. But as for the injury issues of Vasquez, Pavano, etc., it's not like pitchers don't throw through injury problems when they are in the NL too.

 

btw, where did you get .30? Are you just "guesstimating" that as well? How is that any different from the general public guesstimating 1? Or a GM of a Major League team guesstimating almost 1.5?

[ORS]

BB-ref. Use the leagues link and you can look at the league pitching performance year by year. Nice try, though.

 

Baseball-Reference.com

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

BB-ref. Use the leagues link and you can look at the league pitching performance year by year. Nice try, though.

 

Baseball-Reference.com

 

Um, yeah. I get that the NL ERA is lower every year by about that. But how does that directly compare pitchers making the transition back and forth? It's not the same to just say one league is around .30 lower every year. Nice try, though.

[ORS]

What don't you get? The ERA difference is the difference in the run scoring environment. Actually, the RA is the difference, but let's leave errors out of this. There is your adjustment.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

What don't you get? The ERA difference is the difference in the run scoring environment. Actually' date=' the RA is the difference, but let's leave errors out of this. There is your adjustment.[/quote']

 

But that does not compare just the subset of pitchers moving from the AL to the NL and vice-versa. It just compares all pitchers in both leagues, which leaves room for stats being skewed by pitchers who did not leave either league that year. It's not an accurate stat comparison for this argument.

[Mr Crunchy]

i think the league changes effect the soft servers much more than the power pitchers

the al strike zone for whatever reason remains smaller despite the umps working both leagues now a days

 

i dont know why this is the case but my eyes tell me it is so

 

so the soft servers who nibble consistantly get in trouble over in the a.l where they may get the high strike or outside corner call in the n.

l

then you have the dh to deal with

[ORS]

But that does not compare just the subset of pitchers moving from the AL to the NL and vice-versa. It just compares all pitchers in both leagues' date=' which leaves room for stats being skewed by pitchers who did not leave either league that year. It's not an accurate stat comparison for this argument.[/quote']

Why doesn't it? Looking only at the pitchers who move invovles way too much noise. Injuries, bad years, unfavorable individual matchups all contribute and have nothing to do with league, and batters switch leagues too which increases the noise. To reduce the noise, look at the big numbers. Besides, what does the league difference boil down to anyway? To me it's the style of play and the DH. That results in about .3-.5 runs less per game, and that is what the league adjustment ought to be.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

Why doesn't it? Looking only at the pitchers who move invovles way too much noise. Injuries' date=' bad years, unfavorable individual matchups all contribute and have nothing to do with league, and batters switch leagues too which increases the noise. To reduce the noise, look at the big numbers. Besides, what does the league difference boil down to anyway? To me it's the style of play and the DH. That results in about .3-.5 runs less per game, and that is what the league adjustment ought to be.[/quote']

 

Because more pitchers stay in the same league from season to season than change, I think looking at pitchers who don't move along with the ones who do increase the noise more than just looking at the pitchers who switch increases it. Besides, pitchers face injuries, bad years, unfavorable matchups, etc. whether they switch leagues or not. To me it is still a more accurate picture to look at just the subset. I guess we will never know though, as it seems no one has sat down and compiled just the stats of league switching pitchers. I guess we will just have to agree to disagree.

[ORS]

Because more pitchers stay in the same league from season to season than change' date=' I think looking at pitchers who don't move along with the ones who do increase the noise more than just looking at the pitchers who switch increases it. Besides, pitchers face injuries, bad years, unfavorable matchups, etc. whether they switch leagues or not. To me it is still a more accurate picture to look at just the subset. I guess we will never know though, as it seems no one has sat down and compiled just the stats of league switching pitchers. I guess we will just have to agree to disagree.[/quote']

You are missing the point. The noise of injuries and bad years do happen within the same league, frequently. Due to the frequency of these variations, and small sample of pitchers who switch leagues, how do you know that the injuries/bad year/etc. aren't what's causing a big part of the increase? You don't. You can't isolate it. You can, however, just look at the run scoring environment of the league, which, despite player changes, holds a difference of about .3 runs of ERA per year. Despite the noise, variance, and switching leagues, this number remains from year to year. Doesn't that tell you something?

[a700hitter]

Beckett pitched one year in the AL and managed to win 16 games, one more win than his previous high. Wright never won 15 games in the AL and he never won 16 in any season in either league.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

You are missing the point. The noise of injuries and bad years do happen within the same league' date=' frequently. Due to the frequency of these variations, and small sample of pitchers who switch leagues, how do you know that the injuries/bad year/etc. aren't what's causing a big part of the increase? You don't. You can't isolate it. You can, however, just look at the run scoring environment of the league, which, despite player changes, holds a difference of about .3 runs of ERA per year. Despite the noise, variance, and switching leagues, this number remains from year to year. Doesn't that tell you something?[/quote']

 

Like I said earlier, I get your point, I just don't agree with it. It allows for pitchers who don't change leagues to affect the ERA. In your approach, guys like Pettite, Oswalt, Clemens, Carpenter, Pedro, Webb, etc. all skew the numbers. You are talking about trying to find statistics on the 10% of pitchers who switched leagues by looking at stats that lump in the other 90%.

 

how do you know that the injuries/bad year/etc. aren't what's causing a big part of the increase?

 

Because as i said earlier, injuries/bad years/pitching through pain whatever you can think of is a constant for pitchers in both leagues every year. If you go back far enough when you take all of the pitchers who have switched leagues, say the last 7-10 years, the sample size will be large enough that this "noise" will be reduced to what it normally is year to year for the whole league.

 

Anyway, I'm done with this. I get your point, I just don't agree with it. Let's move on.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

Beckett pitched one year in the AL and managed to win 16 games' date=' one more win than his previous high. Wright never won 15 games in the AL and he never won 16 in any season in either league.[/quote']

 

"managed" to win 16 games?

 

The only reason he "managed" to win a career high in games even though his ERA went through the roof was because he had a top 5 offense backing him up. Put him back on the Marlins with that ERA and see how many wins he "manages."

[ORS]

"managed" to win 16 games?

 

The only reason he "managed" to win a career high in games even though his ERA went through the roof was because he had a top 5 offense backing him up. Put him back on the Marlins with that ERA and see how many wins he "manages."

Not true. He delivered a quality start in I think all but one of those W's. His ERA was so high because when he was bad, he was completely awful.

 

And on your point about the league adjustment. How do you propose to isolate the league as the only factor? I'm genuinely interested, but I don't think it can be done. Every pitcher fluctuates in performance from year to year for various reasons. Take Mussina for example. He just pitched brilliantly after two straight 4.40+ ERA seasons. Had he switched leagues, the league adjustment would get all of that credit in your system. I don't see any way of objectively determining the adjustment by looking only at the small number of pitchers who switch leagues due to these annual variances. It's close to impossible to isolate the league factor from all the other ones.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

Not true. He delivered a quality start in I think all but one of those W's. His ERA was so high because when he was bad, he was completely awful.

 

fair enough.

 

And on your point about the league adjustment. How do you propose to isolate the league as the only factor? I'm genuinely interested, but I don't think it can be done. Every pitcher fluctuates in performance from year to year for various reasons. Take Mussina for example. He just pitched brilliantly after two straight 4.40+ ERA seasons. Had he switched leagues, the league adjustment would get all of that credit in your system. I don't see any way of objectively determining the adjustment by looking only at the small number of pitchers who switch leagues due to these annual variances. It's close to impossible to isolate the league factor from all the other ones.

 

I just think that if you had a large enough sample size that the fluctuations you mention wouldn't affect the numbers that much, just like they don't affect each leagues ERA as a whole that much from year to year. You may have to go back 10 years to get a sample size large enough, but I think then it could be done. It's not necessarily about trying to exclude those variances, but more about minimizing them to at least the amount of impact they have on the league as a whole right now.

[ORS]

Yeah, that would work, but I think you'd need to go back farther, maybe 20 years, to get a big enough sample. And separating RP from SP would probably be a good idea too (as well as setting minimum IP requirements for both).

[a700hitter]

The whole league adjustment league is completely overblown. Yes it affects ERA, because the AL has a DH. It shouldn't affect wins. When an NL pither switches to the AL, it's not like the other pitchers aren't also pitching to DH's. They are on a level playing field with pitchers in their own league. Are you assuming that AL pitching is superior to NL pitching? If so, on what are you basing that conclusion?

[Optimist]

I guess Schilling isn't the only player who likes to post on internet message boards. Philip Hughes has been posting on some board related to collecting recently.

 

http://www.beckett.com/beckettforum/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=1257412

 

No one beleived him till he posted a picture (top of page 15.) Definitely an interesting read (I've just been scrolling through his responses.)

[ORS]

People should be screened for epilepsy before they are allowed to read that board. All the pics in the signatures could induce a seizure.

[a700hitter]

Yanks are set to fire Mazzilli. I guess he's this year's scapegoat for the chokers in the Bronx.

 

http://www.nypost.com/seven/10272006/sports/yankees/yanks_fire_maz_yankees_george_king.htm

[26 to 6]

Which I disagree with. I like Mazz a lot and was thrilled when he came backj this past year as the bench coach. I hope he gets to stay in the organization in some capacity.

[a700hitter]

Which I disagree with. I like Mazz a lot and was thrilled when he came backj this past year as the bench coach. I hope he gets to stay in the organization in some capacity.

I am glad that he got stabbed in the back by the Yankees. He was the prick who complained about Johnny Pesky sitting in uniform on the Red Sox bench in 2004. The league had no choice at the time but to ban him from the dugout. He's a low-life prick. I'm glad he got fired in Baltimore, and doubly glad the Yankees stabbed him in the back. I hope he goes to manage A ball somewhere.

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.orioles11nov11,0,6759683.story?coll=bal-sports-baseball

 

The Orioles are in trade talks with New York about Jaret Wright

[Cityofchampions33]

I would kill myself if I were an O's fan. I mean Jaret Wright? Is that the best they can do? I mean they should go out for some actual quality pitching.

[26 to 6]

I am glad that he got stabbed in the back by the Yankees. He was the prick who complained about Johnny Pesky sitting in uniform on the Red Sox bench in 2004. The league had no choice at the time but to ban him from the dugout. He's a low-life prick. I'm glad he got fired in Baltimore' date=' and doubly glad the Yankees stabbed him in the back. I hope he goes to manage A ball somewhere.[/quote']

I believe the rule is 6 coaches in the dugout, unless you get clearance from the league prior to the game. So because the Red Sox failed to follow a standard rule, and Mazzo followed up on it, that makes him a prick? lol, great way to look at it.

[a700hitter]

I believe the rule is 6 coaches in the dugout' date=' unless you get clearance from the league prior to the game. So because the Red Sox failed to follow a standard rule, and Mazzo followed up on it, that makes him a prick? lol, great way to look at it.[/quote']It makes him a rat. :thumbdown